Lisbon treaty moves closer, but Tories stay mum
Daniel Korski 4:49pm
Sometimes if you fear something intensely or hate something very strongly, it can cloud your otherwise excellent judgement and analytical foresight. That seems to be happening to many euro-sceptics when they talk or think about the Lisbon Treaty and the forthcoming second Irish referendum. They do not like the treaty and so will find it almost unthinkable that the Irish will vote yes. But a 'yes' vote looks like the most likely scenario.
That will mean that the British Conservatives have to be less mealy-mouthed about their post-referendum strategy; if the treaty is ratified will they try to re-open the document if they win power or let sleeping dogs lie? The answer will in many ways determine the relationship between a future Conservative prime minister and particularly his German and French counterparts, but also his relationship with the Tories’ eurosceptic “base”. David Cameron has warned that he would “not let matters rest” regarding the treaty. But he has not pledged to hold a referendum if Lisbon has been ratified by all EU states.
Ireland will vote again on Oct. 2 after winning concessions on key Irish policy areas including military neutrality and retaining an EU commissioner.The latest opinion polls show a majority now plan to vote "Yes" -- many convinced by the need for EU support in Ireland's worst downturn on record. In June, leading Irish bookmaker Paddy Power recorded "significant" levels of betting from punters across Europe, sending odds on a Yes vote firming from 4-5 to 1-6 with a No vote plummeting to 7-2.
The reason for the increased chances of a 'yes' may also be found in the weakening of the 'no' campaign. During the run up to the last Lisbon Treaty referendum, Declan Ganley's Libertas group was among the leading voices campaigning against the treaty. But Ganley subsequently failed to win a seat in the European Parliament. Though his pan-European anti-Lisbon Treaty party claimed it could win up to 100 seats in the European parliament, it won just one mandate, that of sitting French MEP Philippe de Villiers, whose Mouvement pour la France actually suffered a severe loss, reducing its overall number of MEPs from three to one. In Germany, a country Ganley had pinpointed as a prime target Libertas's partners the Party for Work, Environment and Family did not even reach the 3% electoral threshold. Ganley has now announced his withdrawal from public life.
With Libertas’ failure, an alliance of left-leaning groups are populating the anti-Lisbon side in the run-up to the second referendum, but this has only brought the business community out in force, including in the last couple of days Intel and Ryanair. So with the Lisbon Treaty moving closer, the Conservatives may have to be clearer about their strategy – and risk alienating key constituencies either domestically or internationally.



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Archie
August 29th, 2009 5:16pm Report this commentI say to hell with the Tories as currently incarnated, I'll vote for this bloke instead!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1209841/ROBERT-HARDMAN-The-PC-supermayor-slashed-public-spending-axed-pointless-jobs-banned-word-diversity.html
John Walters
August 29th, 2009 5:22pm Report this commentExcept the concessions are nothing off the sort.
In order for the least of them to be given, the Lisbon Treaty would have to be re-drafted and re-ratified. That isn't going to happen so the only way that the concessions could be given to Ireland would be in the next treaty.
Since the EU would have got what it wanted in exchange for hot air, there would be no incentive at all to honour any of the concessions.
Disorganised1
August 29th, 2009 5:40pm Report this commentThey have NOT won concessions ~ the document is exactly the same as it was before.
They have been told these things will happen for them - the same way as Tony Blair was told the Common Agricultural Policy would be ammended when he gave up part of our rebate.
In just the same way, the Irish will not get their promised "concessions."
James
August 29th, 2009 5:44pm Report this commentSurely the thing to do is pledge a referndum regardless of the Irish vote. After the election Dave could then go to 'Europe' and ask for concessions and deragations based on the 'will of the British people'. Let us not forget, they need our money.
If Dave needs any help I'm sure Maggie has a spare handbag!
David Lindsay
August 29th, 2009 6:05pm Report this commentIf they were really against it, then they would have put down amendments at Second and Third Reading rejecting it because of its content and without mentioning a referendum, and they would be promising not to ratify it if they came to office before ratification, again without any need of a referendum.
A referendum would merely cede the decision to the BBC over the month leading up to the poll. That was what happened in 1975. And that is why Cameron, a diehard upper-class Europhile who is heavily dependent on Michael Heseltine, wants one.
hysteria
August 29th, 2009 6:12pm Report this commentinteresting argument John - but can you back that up with any facts/references?
anne allan
August 29th, 2009 6:18pm Report this commentThe letters EU are the antithesis of the word honour.
RobC
August 29th, 2009 6:24pm Report this commentI am a dyed in the wool tory having had my delusions destroyed by the last bankrupt Labour government but if we do not get a referendum on Lisbon it will definitely be the last time I vote tory.Does anyone out there realise just how fundamentally the uk's freedom to determine its own future will be undermined? - it frightens the shxx out of me.
Cicero
August 29th, 2009 6:30pm Report this commentI must admit I found it odd that Ganley did so badly.
But is it really because Libertas was seen as too anti?
Is it possible this time, with hardening of attitudes, that he was seen as too pro? (ie advocating being in the great project, but reforming it from within, which never seems to work).
Maybe people didn't vote Libertas because they felt he'd softened his stance. Things have moved on. Certainly a lot of strong anti-Lisbon feeling in the south west of Ireland currently, and probably elsewhere as well. Yes, the economy's shite - but bullying the Irish has not had a great track record so far, historically.
David Ossitt
August 29th, 2009 6:50pm Report this commentIf the treaty is ratified it will in my opinion hasten the complete breakdown of the entire EU project.
A system based on lies; that is corrupt to the core, and does not command the respect of the majority must eventually wither and die.
If Cameron had just one ounce of spunk he would ensure we had the referenda that was promised; if he does not, then he will be despised for being weak, if he does, he will be the statesman he would like to be.
Verity
August 29th, 2009 7:26pm Report this commentDavid Ossitt and Rob C - Cameron has already said that if the Irish ratify it, it will be shrugs all round and we'll just have to live with it.
Cameron, a liberal lefty One Worlder, wants Lisbon ratified and I am sure his proudest moment would be signing it on behalf of the British being sold down the river.
As far as I'm concerned, David Cameron is the most dangerous man in Britain. And how did he get his position of Leader? It had to be a stitch up, but by who? No one had ever heard of this vapid wimp before, yet everyone had heard of - and most people admired - David Davis. Yet they voted for Cameron? Hmmmmm ......
Athesius the Facilitator
August 29th, 2009 8:41pm Report this commentVerity-You wouldn't understand politics if it came as a wet kipper and smacked you round the chops. And give it a rest with David Davis as well. He is (by his own hand) yesterdays man.
Antonia H
August 29th, 2009 9:06pm Report this commentOur best hope is Czech Prez, Klaus who sent the treaty to the constitutional courts.
The Swedish do not expect it to be rectified this year. If Klaus could just play it slow until June, Cameron has to make a decision. Oh, boy that will be interesting.
Liz Brown
August 29th, 2009 9:11pm Report this commenthad the Irish won concessions, the Con/Treaty would have had to be renegotiated (and signed once again) by all member states - this has not happened -ergo there are no changes as always, nothing but lies and
deceit coming from Yurop
Verity, are you all right dear - you seem rather dyspeptic right now -worried that your benefits might be coming to an end, perhaps?
Robert Eve
August 29th, 2009 10:20pm Report this commentLibertas was fundamentally flawed because it wanted to change the EU rather than leave it. I think the voters sptted this and dismissed this hopeless approach. Notwithstanding this Ganley did us all a service on the first vote.
Hysteria
August 29th, 2009 10:52pm Report this commentAlthesius - I think the point though is that DD was not "yesterday's man" at the time of the leadership contest - indeed was he not the front runner initially (might be wrong on that)?
So Verity's point is still valid.
David Ossitt
August 29th, 2009 10:59pm Report this commentAthesius the Facilitator
"He is (by his own hand) yesterdays man"
And todays and tomorrows and for years to come.
I suspect that you could not facilitate a pickled herring contest.
drakes drum
August 29th, 2009 11:31pm Report this commentCameron is a coward. He will not level with the British people. He is just as bad as Blair and Brown. The country will get the third DUD prime minister if they elect this cowardly toff.
Goodness knows he wants to be elected without telling the people the truth on his attitude to the EU.
But. William Hague is an honourable man and I expect he will resign if Cameron does not hold a referendum. That will create a major split within the tories thus ensuring Cameron has a very rough two to three years. People will soon see through this cowardly man.
blokeinfrance
August 30th, 2009 12:27am Report this commentGanley's partners were a pretty rum bunch. I signed up for e mail updates from Peter de Villers. His platform was (in summary) more CAP subsidy + protectionism. After he lost he had the effrontery to e mail me thanking me for my racism.
I wish...
August 30th, 2009 1:02am Report this commentThere's nothing 'yesterday' about David Davis. He'll make a significant comeback in due course.
A Tory Party consisting of a front bench:-
PM - Dan Hannan
Chancellor - Redwood
Home Secretary - David Davis
Local Government - Carswell
Foreign - Hague
Would be a dream team.
Mike
August 30th, 2009 2:44am Report this commentWhat's the big deal about a future Govt walking away from the EU constitution and rules? What will France/Germany do? Invade?
Verity
August 30th, 2009 3:12am Report this commentAthesius the Facilitator writes: "Verity-You wouldn't understand politics if it came as a wet kipper and smacked you round the chops."
Kipper .... mmmmmmm .... if only ...
Verity
August 30th, 2009 3:32am Report this commentLiz Brown: "Verity, are you all right dear - you seem rather dyspeptic right now -worried that your benefits might be coming to an end, perhaps?"
Eeeeeeeh, thankee Miz Brown! Ah'm right worritt indeed, as are many people still living - against all common sense - in the UK.
"...'an they're bringin' in that new suicide-by-kindly-request law, an awl, for them that's worritt about their benefits runnin' out ..."
Liz, sweets, I don't live in your hemisphere. Not in my mind. And not physically. Not on a bet.
Dear.
Verity
August 30th, 2009 4:17am Report this commentI Wish - Endorse!
Frank P
August 30th, 2009 10:04am Report this commentI wish
... seems like a wet dream team to me and just as pointless, 'cos it just ain't gonna happen.
On the subject of Hannan: if he is all that shrewd, how come he backed Obama? And just what is the bottom line on the Yurrup as far as he is concerned?
michael dearden
August 30th, 2009 10:53am Report this commentI am merely repeating a comment I made in answer to a 'Cranmer' blog. Cameron will renege on a promise to hold a referendum on the question of the Lisbon treaty. I would go as far to say that the conservative leadership are desperately hoping for the Irish to vote yes in their forthcoming referendum. It is self evident that Cameron and his cabal are manifestly pro european in all its guises. If you can find the relevant U-Tube issue watch Hague wriggling on the hook when specifically asked what the conservatives would do if the Irish vote Yes, his body language says it all.
seb
August 30th, 2009 10:58am Report this commentVerity is, almost certainly, right. Unless he convinces us otherwise, Cameron must be assumed to share Ken Clarke's raging europhilic illness. The chief symptom of this is a belief, which the sufferer may or may not reveal to others, that the UK is f@#ked, that we cannot 'do industry' at all and that the brighter sparks who manage the larger global economy needs to manage Britain as a sort of institute for the idle or the intellectually challenged.
I don't think Cameron or Hague are worried, though, about the importance of the Lisbon plebiscite issue in the next election. Immigration and joblessness, they know, engage voters' minds to the near exclusion of most other issues.
Coeur de Lion
August 30th, 2009 11:31am Report this commentSorry to be so trivial, but Standing Room this week strikes closer to my modus vivendi than the Lisbon Treaty. Do I go out and bulk buy proper light bulbs or wait for the Revolution, the maddened uprising of the British People?
R.Rowan
August 30th, 2009 11:31am Report this commentAfter 40 years of supporting the Tories in the last European elections I voted UKIP and thats where my vote stays unless we have a referendum on this Treaty.
saddleworth
August 30th, 2009 12:54pm Report this commentIf Cameron's administration does not challenge both the Lisbon Stitch-Up and the EU's bizarre idea of a budget, he will have the same problems as John Major's admistration. But, next time it will be worse as Cameron will lose support outside Parliament as well. I doubt his govt could last a full term if he backs away from these issues. Much as I would like to see what is left of Brown's career buried at midnight with a stake through its heart, the required landslide won't happen without a credible policy on the EU.
Verity
August 30th, 2009 3:49pm Report this commentAgree, Saddleworth. And there will be no credible policy on the EU because it does not fit in with David Cameron's personal ambition to get his polished shoes under the top table in Brussels. He is at one with those other great British patriots, Edward Heath and Chris Patten.
If you look at the comments sectionsn of the political blogs on The Telegraph, you will note that there is growing distaste for David Cameron. He never had a fan club in the first place, but the number of people who thought they'd give him a chance diminishes by the day. Those comments are quite illuminating.
Democracy_is_preferable
August 30th, 2009 3:50pm Report this commentRemind me, Korski, have Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Ireland all ratified the treaty? If not, that means there are four countries who have to ratify it before our (the UK's - not your country's) general election. This fight is far from over.
You should know that "the concessions" won by Ireland have no legal basis; if they did, the newly worded treaty would have to go through 27 legislatures again.
When most commenters on a thread know more than you, it's a sign either that your optimism about the treaty's chances is blinding you to the truth, or that you're being dishonest. Which?
Cicero
August 30th, 2009 5:26pm Report this commentDemocracy_is_preferable:
Interesting that the German constitutional challenge to Lisbon, which may indeed hold up the whole process, is being led by von Stauffenberg, son of the man who tried to assassinate Hitler. Von S. reckons the European project is now incompatible with democracy.
Perhaps anti-totalitarianism runs in the family?
EU - Nein! Non! No! Nej!
August 30th, 2009 6:40pm Report this commentWell, may Herr von Stauffenberg have fair sailing with the wind at his back!
Strange that the incompatibility of the European Projekt and democracy never gets a mention.
James J
August 30th, 2009 10:21pm Report this commentStrangely enough I think it is the EU, by not recognising when to stop taking advantage that will lead to the UK reassessing its position.
The rebate should have been left alone as opening up the costs of the UK’s membership at this time of economic gloom was bad timing. The inevitable tax increases in the next few years will include our “E.U Fee”, not something that will be popular with the electorate.
E.U membership has no economic advantages for the UK so increasing the costs will increase support for Associate Membership.
Austin Barry
August 31st, 2009 7:51am Report this commentI'm not convinced that the Irish will cave and vote 'Yes'. The ruling coalition lead by the increasingly befuddled Brian Cowen (reduced to declaring in interviews that 'No, I have not got a drink problem') is detested and the referendum affords the disgruntled populace a perfect opportunity to administer a kicking.
cuffleyburgers
August 31st, 2009 9:08am Report this commentEveryone thought they would vote yes the first time, and bless'em they voted no.
Anyone who thinks about it knows that they are voting on the same treaty a second time, the concessions are no such thing, as has been pointed out repeatedly here, since if they had any force the whole treaty would need to be rewritten.
Cameron is right not to specify what actions he might or might not take in the event of a certain thing taking place in the future - there are plenty of other issues also.
It would be an exquisite irony if we were saved by the German constitutional court - I have been saying for a long time that Germany is a freer and happier place than Britain, largely due to not having had a labour party, but also having had Hitler and realizing that actually, authoritarianism isn't much fun.
Allied to a naturally conservative (small c) mindset, respect for intellectuals and engineers and natural thriftiness... everything we should be too if it weren't for the gramsci-ite social engineering of the last 50 years, but I digress.
logdon
August 31st, 2009 3:02pm Report this commentAntonia H
August 29th, 2009 9:06pm
Seconded.
And if the Czechs untimately say no, which ironically also means no in their language, what then? Another re-run?
The siso's (sign in-sod off) are emblemic of the whole self serving charade.
Watch the You Tube clip as they, realising they've been rumbled, scurry and cower like the unprincipled rodent-like cowards they are.
Corrupt, anti democratic dhimmis who have sold their souls to Marxism, Gramsci and Islam.
Read Bat Ye'or's Eurabia: The Euro Arab Axis on the plans to create a Euro-Med zone in which we'll all be facing away from Mecca when we use a lavatory.
Then weep for all those allied soldiers who died or were severely wounded in the misguided attempt at sweeping this bent totalitarianism from the continent.
These people are the Vichy's and Quislings of the modern age, yet gilded with the cheap micron thin plate of their authority, lord it as if invincible.
The creators of the Maginot Line also made that claim.
Verity
August 31st, 2009 3:50pm Report this commentLogdon - Well said!
Keltikos
September 1st, 2009 3:09am Report this commentIf the Lisbon Treaty is passed the E.U. will have a Constitution a President and a Foreign Minister. But fear not we are all perfectly safe. David Cameron has warned that he would “not let matters rest” regarding the treaty. A bit late for warnings I would have thought.
Holly
September 12th, 2009 6:41pm Report this commentR Rowan - After more years than that of voting for the Tories, at the European elections and at the next general election I will be voting for the BNP- the economy will have to wait for another day.Five years leaving the EU and immigration unchallenged is far too long.Sorting these two issues would put more money back to OUR ECONOMY where it was intended.For the British people.
While I defend Cameron ....(We DO NOT know what he would do once in office...and pretending to being a mindreader or seer is silly)...my vote for him can wait.Events over the past 24 hours has now convinced my spouse to do the same.
John Ryan
September 16th, 2009 8:16pm Report this comment'We must not vote in fear' says Ganley
By Declan Ganley
The funny thing about the re-vote on the Lisbon Treaty is that nobody seems to want to talk about what's actually in the Treaty we're being asked to sign - but there is a lot of talk about things that are not in the Treaty at all.
Every lamppost is littered with the lie that Lisbon will somehow create, or save jobs. It will not. It has nothing to do with jobs, and the only job a "yes" vote will save is Brian Cowen's.
There is no article in the Treaty about jobs. In fact, the Wall Street Journal, the bible of corporate America, has said that the Irish would "save civilisation" by voting No.
Think about that, the next time you hear a politician tell you this is about jobs. Who do American Investors listen to, Dick Roche, or the Wall Street Journal?
Our politicians want us to believe that Lisbon is connected to the mess they have made of our economy. It suits them. They want to present this debate as a choice between people who are for and against the economy, which is almost funny, given how they have managed it.
No, the real choice is between fear and hope. We already know that Lisbon will not affect our place in Europe.
Dick Roche said it himself after the last referendum, but he would rather you forgot that. Charlie McCreevy says so too. So do all our European partners. And we know they are right.
The only people who have talked about us getting kicked out are our own Government.
Lisbon is not about being in or out of Europe, and those of our politicians who say otherwise are just hoping that the Irish people have lost the ability to think for themselves.
No. Lisbon is about the Ireland we want to leave to our children.
Do we want to look them in the eye and say that we listened to our politicians and handed over 60 areas of sovereignty to Brussels because we were scared by our own Government?
Do we want to tell them that we voted for a European President to run the whole EU without any idea who it would be or what they would do?
Do we want to tell them that we told our politicians it was ok to ignore us, berate us, and insult us for making a decision that did not suit them?
This Treaty has not one single thing that will make life better for you or your family. Not one. It has many things that will make life easier for your politicians.
It makes it harder for you to influence them. It creates more positions for them to hold in Brussels. It gives them more chances to blame "Europe" every time they do something that is deeply unpopular here at home.
So before you vote, sit down and think. Whose job does a "yes" vote save? Why do politicians love this Treaty so much?
Why do they keep saying how much they respect you, but keep asking you to vote twice on everything you say "no" to?
Why do they talk about what other people say about Lisbon, and never what is actually in Lisbon? What is in Lisbon for you, or your family?
If you think, I don't need to answer those questions for you.
You'll know already what you should do with your pencil on voting day – say a quiet, but very firm, NO. Because like our parents before us, we aren't fools.
Felix Staratschek
September 26th, 2009 7:14pm Report this commentPleace vote for democracy and against the treaty of lisbon
Dear irish people!
Pleace stop the treaty of lisbon! Is is antidemocartic, militaristic, antisocial. The disadvantages are much bigger, than the advantages. The EU can live with its actuell laws. They should only be changed into a democratic direction. With the treaty of lisbon, the european council is able to change this treaty in great parts without asking the parliament. This is nearly the same law, which mades the nationl- rassistic- party of Germany so powerfull in our country in the year 1933. Our basic law (the german constitution) and all other european constitutions should not be replaced by the treaty of lisbon. But the new treaty tries to bring all right- sytstems in a lower level than the new european right. Here is my informationpage: http://sites.google.com/site/euradevormwald/english . When you have some more english information, pleace send me a link or text or write it into the visitors book of my page. And pleace spread this text all over Ireland.
In the hope in your activities for a better Europe, Felix Staratschek, Freiligrathstr. 2, D- 42477 Radevormwald (Germany)
PJ Tharsaile
October 1st, 2009 11:53am Report this commentWell, the anti-Lisbon lot have had a good innings. As one of hundreds of thousands of Irish expats in the EU without a vote I hope for and I look forward to a YES vote at home.
The arguments posted here that the Irish didn't obtain concessions is a case of some believing what they want to believe. Just keep an eye on the number of commissioners, e.g. If the Irish commissioner goes then Ireland can and will leave, but it simply won't happen.
It's perfectly true that the treaty wasn't changed but that doesn't mean that Ireland didn't obtain concessions. Seemingly some people wish to believe contradictory things: the EU elites will stop at nothing (so they would make concessions) and Irish are "being told to vote again on the same thing because they didn't get the right answer the first time."
Most people who voted NO the first time did so because they were unhappy with information available to them--they complained they didn't understand the treaty and were not willing to support something that hadn't been explained properly to them. Significant steps have been taken to remedy that, by both sides.
Felix Staratschek
October 1st, 2009 10:39pm Report this commentI prefer a treaty which needs no concessions to any nation! What is about the other countries?
I do not want to have a treaty, which include several undefinated reasons for wars. I want to have the clear sentence from the german constitution: An attac- war must not be!
I do not want a pseude- democratic facade which rules, whichngive much power to the combines.
i do not want a treaty, which gives no democratic controll to the foreign- und and military policy. my be, ireland has got some special conditions. But what is with the other countries. I am a friend of an european federal state, when it is true democratic. The treaty is not democratic. It could be changed in big parts without the EU- Parliament.
In germany, a tv- channle asked some parlamerntarians questions about the the treaty. Nobody could give the right answer.
And that 1 Mio. poeple can make a call to the EU means nothing, the EU can do, what its want to do.
I want to have a treaty, whre nothing could be dicided weithout the parliament and where the signatures of 1 mio. people could reach a true referendum.
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