Playing the war game

lawrence greek

Interesting article - can we have a full piece on this? It deserves more than just a blog surely ..

Chris lancashire

Look, if only a month ago the risible Quentin Davies can blame the defence procurement mess on the last Conservative Govt., then Cameron has a minimum of 10 years to pin anything going wrong on NuLab.

Phil Cane

Selling off Radio One would be awful for attracting young people to the party, Chris Moyles get 7.3 million listens a day!

Liz Brown

.........but isn't VAT a European tax - how much of it goes into the UK coffers?

Simon Stephenson

"The thing that struck me once the exercise was done was just how buffeted by events the Cameron government is going to be. It will inherit a global situation that is as bad as the economic situation, if not worse, and a slew of other underappreciated problems such as the risk of an energy crunch."

It can be seen as a poisoned chalice, no doubt, but is it any worse than that which Mrs Thatcher inherited in 1979?

I think you fail to appreciate that there is no question of any future government seriously attempting to pay down the public debt either by increasing tax or reducing spending. At best, we will see a reduction in the rate of growth of debt. The diminution of debt as a factor in our national economy will be done by default through a hefty dose of inflation. Be real! The "honourable" alternative, involving years of deprivation, is just not going to be acceptable as a voluntary policy in any democracy.

So, on the assumption that the Tories have no option but to go down this route, the key questions are:-

1. Can they camouflage their intention for long enough to prevent a mass exodus from sterling?

and

2. Can they actually prevent it from turning into Weimar or Zimbabwe?

cjcjc

They are not going to *have to* raise taxes.

But I agree they will *choose to* raise taxes as they are cowards.

Frank P

All that rabbit and you have been sent back to tell us to expect a necessary tax pasting if and when the Tories are elected. What a surprise that is! However, nobody seems to have asked you to tell us what the Tories are going to do about the ever tightening stranglehold of the non-elected bureaucracy of Europe, over HM Parliament, or what Cameron will do about the 'Special Relationship' now that the US has a Commie administration.

While everybody is playing games and pissing up each other's backs, Britain continues to gurgle down the drain.

Didn't anyone at this cosy get-together mention the REAL war that's going on in Afghanistan? As for the culture war that Britain has lost over the past 50 years, I assume you guys would consider yourself on the winning side? FMOBB!

David Cram

Raising VAT and taxes in a depressed economy is not smart, actually cretinous. How about putting a huge amount of energy and money into clawing back jobs and industries that have been exported? That might result in an increase in the tax take.

No mention of a bonfire of the Quangos then? The bloated Civil Service? The Welfare racket?

Thought not.

IdlingAway

"One point that would have cheered the Cameroons, though, was made by a polling expert who pointed out that the relatively low expectations of the electorate meant that the Tories would be given time to implement their agenda"

Can you explain this point?

Are you saying that the great British public, through a combination of apathy and ignorance, are not even aware or bothered by these big global challenges and therefore will not expect a Conservative government to deal with them?

Or, are you saying that there are just low expectations of the next government in general?

Either this is overly patronising of the electorate (who I'm sure are well informed of global issues) or just depressing because people have given up hope in the next government!

By the way, agree with the comment above that this deserves a fuller article.

DJ Economics

Selling Radio One? You would have thought that the valuable property was Radio Two... but maybe not after Chris Evans replaces Wogan?

There's 5-10bn in Network Rail equity you could go for too, if you had the backbone....

C Powell

There are two additional issues which they're going to have grapple with from the start: - (1) how are we going to meet our energy needs and that means IMO commissioning some nuclear power stations PDQ - not faffing about hoping that a few windmills and us wearing our jumpers round the house will do it; and (2) how they're going to counter the Islamist threat to our society - not just dealing with terrorist plots etc but reversing the whole policy of appeasement of / pre-emptive grovelling to religious fascism, abolishing all the multicultural claptrap we've been force fed the last few years and some really stringent controls on immigration from non-EU states.

Part of the reason Labour is so hated is the feeling that they have set out to destroy Britain and what it means to be British. The Tories - if they're going to mean anything - have to do something about this; they need to change the mood music so that Britons feel that this is their country and those who live here as if they were still in the Third World or who have evil intent to us (from wanting to change our laws to blowing us up) are made to feel uncomfortable and either change their ways or push off somewhere else.

Plus, of course, Dave has to stick to his promise to abolish ID cards and all Labour's authoritarian spy-databases.

James j

The problem was identified by Peter Oborne; the major political parties are dominated by a political class that has the same view of the world. Their experience of life outside politics is so limited that a government dominated by them can only function well in good times. The good times are over ,we need a new breed of politician and possibly new parties.

mac

C Powell:

Excellent post, spot on.

TrevorsDen

Selling off Radio 1 does not mean consigning it to the 7th circle of hell - interesting though that may be.
It just ceases to be a burden on the licence payer.

No doubt some tax rises can be offset by a year plan to reduce the licence free by 50%.
But the country is already heavily taxed - how does taking money from the public and thus reducing demand help the economy generate the real growth it needs to sustain the level of 'investment' we would all like to see.
Even when we allegedly had 'growth' we still racked up massive (massive for then) deficits with no sign of being able to pay it back.
The recession is ending - someone should tell Paxman that rerunning the past 12 years is not going to solve our problems.

I hope all the time will not be spent firefighting. I hope the real reforms to the tax benefit education justice and heath services can be implemented as well. These are not self cancelling.

The difficulties in reducing the deficit must really bring about a complete reappraisal of what and how the govt does its job. (I believe this is what the conservatives have said and I suspect this will be laid out in the election.)
No doubt this would be eased by a candid and urgently early reappraisal of the state of the country and its finances by a Cameron govt.

Stu Bails

Why are Tories so obsessed with bashing the BBC? I really don't get this at all. How much would be raised from selling off Radio 1? There are many programmes on Radio 1 that wouldn't find a natural home on commercial radio (Zane Lowe, Rob Da Bank, Annie Mac etc.) - and so can be justified by a PSB remit. I'd be more concerned with:

1) Our schools. The supply-side revolution is a great idea and I bet more social democrats than just myself are crossing our fingers that this gets implemented;

2) Cutting marginal tax rates for poor people: These are horrendous and should be a high priority of any incoming administration. Paying for them might be difficult, but lets start by having a bonfire of the quangos

Enough of the BBC-baiting. Let's leave well alone thank you. It's a fantastic British Institution that we lose at our peril

Derek

Spot on, C Powell!

davidke

"selling off Radio One would be awful for attracting young people to the party, Chris Moyles get 7.3 million listens a day!" And he would still do so. Do you think young people care who owns R1 ????

David Ossitt

Stu Bails

"It's a fantastic British Institution that we lose at our peril"

It was; and I sincerely hope that it will be in the future, but it is so far to the left of centre and politically correct to boot, it needs a major sort out.

Norman Dee

Keep Radio 1, it's relatively harmless, but pack up and sell off the news organisation. Make them compete in the real world then lets see if they are still paying £92k to middle grade newsreaders. It's bloated by enormous over-staffing, all proudly carrying their union cards, and taking holidays in the USA just as someone dies to get their airfare paid.

David Ossitt

cjcjc
"They are not going to *have to* raise taxes."
"But I agree they will *choose to* raise taxes as they are cowards."

Hello! what have we here?

What in the name of heaven are you on about?

The world and his uncle know that taxes must go up; so they will go up, and spending will come down.

What sort of twisted socialist mind set do you have? to accuse the Tory's of cowardliness for facing up to the problem.

David Ossitt

C Powell.

Well said; a good post.

Laura

To keep Tory morale high Cameron needs to through the grassroots and rank and file some red meat on Europe now and again. It will be popular in the party and with an electorate that hates and mistrusts Europe.

Moraymint

"... and a slew of other underappreciated problems such as the risk of an energy crunch".

Above all else, it is the 'energy crunch' that has the potential to screw us all. Peak Oil is here. The UK's energy security is a joke: unreliable and lacking resilience.

The magic economic growth that will be required to dig ourselves out of this unholy mess is predicated on cheap energy; has been for 150 years. We have now all but reached the end of mankind's era of cheap energy.

So, (Dave) the defining feature of the next decade will be how we and, indeed, the other nations of the world grapple with the effects of the end of this cheap energy era.

We really ain't seen nothing yet. Check out the writings and blogs of James Kunstler to get right under the skin of this preeminent challenge for our country and, moreover, the USA and the BRICs nations.

Forget Milliband banging on about climate change heralding Armageddon; the end of cheap energy is going to hit us left flank before anybody realises the cannon ball was incoming.

Moraymint

Hear! Hear! to Lawrence Greek (we need to know more about this "War Game") and C Powell.

Jeremy

"I suspect that selling off Radio One is going to be one of them."

Oh! Is Radio One what Dave has offered to the Murdochs in return for the support of The Sun?

Stewart

The Conservatives should be obsessed with bashing the BBC because the BBC has spent a very long time indeed bashing the Conservatives and conservative issues. Privatising Radio One won't affect the youth vote because many Radio one listeners don't vote and if they do it is not for the Conservatives. Not much will be lost. The license fee must be reduced by Radio One's share though. Even if it is only 50p. BBC News and Drama depts should also be sold off as this is where most of the left wing bias in the bbc exists. Keep Sport and Weather.

2trueblue

Labour have spent 12yrs getting rid of England and this has been achieved by the 'Scottish Raj'. We have no authority in England any more, so it would be great if Cameron could do something about that.
Labour inherited a great set of finances and a benign global economy and still managed to mess it up. Whoever wins the election will have to practically rebuild the country.
The basic infastructure has been torn apart by continual 'initiatives' that have not delivered any real benefits, but made it appear that something was being done. Lets hope that we will see an end to this methodology which has been hugely destructive. It would be great if he said something meaningful on Europe.

Lady A

The Conservatives will inherit a broken country, broken society and broken economy. No worries though, that's what the Conservatives inherit every time they take over from Labour.

Derek

With regard to C. Powell's item( 2), I suggested elsewhere in the Coffee House that the Spectator should send a writer up to the northern cities on a fact-finding visit. A series of articles on the extent of the influence of Islam and on "What is to be Done?" there could be very instructive - at least to those of us in temporary exile. I suspect though that not too many people in the South make an effort to visit the North to find out for themselves. Was it Jez who said he lives up there somewhere? Perhaps he could be one of the local guides and stringers...

Moraymint

Derek - it's grim up north.

David Ossitt

Moraymint
"Derek - it's grim up north"

It is much better than having to live within the M25.