Can Brown make it through December?
James Forsyth 7:56pm
The question of Gordon Brown’s leadership won’t go away, but there’s a feeling that nothing will happen for a while yet. Andrew Grice writes in The Independent today that the coup might come in December:
This chimes with what I heard a few days ago from a union fixer. Certainly, the interventions from Jon Cruddas and Derek Simpson this week suggest that the mood on the left is hardening against Brown. But the questions as always when it comes to whether Brown can be ousted are what’s the mechanism and is there a candidate. The left might come to realise that it missed its best chance to get rid of Brown when it decided to wait rather than join in the June coup.“Labour's hard left and the trade unions are the dogs that have not barked. The assumption is that they stick with him for fear of something worse, and calculate that their best hope would be to exploit a backlash against New Labour after an election defeat.
I am told that their mood is now changing. Some left-wing MPs and union bosses are coming round to the view that they would have an overriding duty to avoid a massacre that could keep the party out of power for a generation."If nothing has changed by December, we would have nothing to lose," said one prominent left-winger.”
My understanding is that the current strategic dilemma for the ring leaders of the June insurrection is how and what to brief to show that they still have the stomach for the fight without raising expectations or exposing themselves to ridicule. They know that little will happen at conference on this front but don’t want that to be the end of the matter. Hence, the spate of stories suggesting that a change of leadership might happen later rather than sooner.
PS Tucked away in The Times’s assessment of the leadership question is this line, make of it what you will:
“A Cabinet minister this week told The Times that the Prime Minister will step down in the new year on the ground that his “failing eyesight” made it impossible to continue.”
PPS The headline comes from a great Merle Haggard song, have a listen.



Previous






James
September 12th, 2009 8:27pm Report this commentWe are now half way through a year long election campaign. Can our constitution do nothing about this? We have no government, just a party seeking re-election. The fact that we may have another 'coronation' seems to offend nobody's democratic sensibilities.
I DEMAND A CHANCE TO VOTE ON THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. THIS IS NOT ZIMBABWE
Diogenes
September 12th, 2009 8:31pm Report this commentSurely no sane electorate (if we have one) is going to attach much credence to a leadership/position change which finally gets achieved five months before an election?
Senor Frizby
September 12th, 2009 8:42pm Report this commentThat last line will server the history books but only by reference of an asterix, above which, the truth of his damaging tenure holding the reigns of power will be in bold print.
What does it say of blunkett?
TrevorsDen
September 12th, 2009 9:12pm Report this commentWould a change in leadership acknowledge the mistakes that had led up to it?
No - I thought not, so I do not see the public being fooled.
Will the right allow the left to foist its own candidate?
Do I care?
Would a Cabinet Minister really predict in public that Brown will leave? New year? February? An election period and then we are into April and the election proper. Not much time and lets not forget there is a war on.
Ricky
September 12th, 2009 9:14pm Report this commentThere are only three serious potential candidates - Ed Milibland (supported by the Unions and New Lab), James Purnell (supported by the Straw Men and orchestrated behind the scenes by Blair & Mandelson)) and Hattie (supported by Dromey, the sisterhood and the remnants of the tired, old town hall guardianistas.
There will be no serious challenge. Any candidate is doomed at the next Election and will face their professional career in opposition.
The jostling will only truly begin after the Election and the Labour Party - currently in seizure - will agonise over the post-morten for several decades.
Many of the senior players are already planning their exit and looking forward to life in the quango comfort zone or to spending their twilight years paying court to that notorious shapeshifter - President Elect Blair, Holy Tony Roman Emperor in Waiting (EU Gravy Train Inc).
you there
September 12th, 2009 9:27pm Report this commentI have been reading blogs like this for a year or more. Cannot these guys get it (the labour party): gordon is going to lose big time. There is not a lot left to say.
Somewhere in the labour party machine is someone monitoring the blogs. How far up the chain does it go? If they do not tell the upper tier the I would call it a dereliction of duty.
Austin Barry
September 12th, 2009 9:28pm Report this commentLabour is dead. Its putrefying corpse though will not be buried until next summer. The worms, Balls, Straw, the Milipedes et al, wriggle on its rancid residue. In the Great Plague they used quicklime to speed putrefication. We have only contempt. It is not enough.
Derek
September 12th, 2009 11:14pm Report this commentJames
I am reading in the Washington Times that tens of thousands of people demonstrated in Washington DC against big government yesterday. One of the cries was "Enough, enough!". I have watched in amazement from afar as the "British street" has stayed indoors during our own crisis. With this example now set by the Americans, can this passivity continue? I fear though that it will only be when the opposition has been elected that we will see demonstrations against the government...
Victor Southern
September 12th, 2009 11:45pm Report this commentI feel dreadful about this. I realise that it is imperative that we get rid of Labour whilst anything of our nation is still salvageable.
Meanwhile I watch with awful fascination the death throes of the Labour party and enjoy them so thoroughly.
But that is allowing my personal plaesure to come before the benefit of my country so I must wish for an end to it all within weeks. Next April will be disastrously late. They commit daily outrages and heinous blunders and April or May will give them time for hundreds more such.
J H Holloway
September 13th, 2009 3:19am Report this commentThe 'failing eyesight' line would be the key sign that Brown is planning retreat.
It may be that he will declare the recession over in the New Year and claim that he - in the face of Tory opposition - was the man who save the country and the banks.
Making his escape would also fit neatly with his record in avoiding full-scale confrontation. Wpuld Brown voluntarily walk into the next election to lead Labour into annihilation?
Could he really cope with being held responsible for destroying his beloved party?
It sounds more and more possible that he'll leg it once the recession is technically over.
Sarah
September 13th, 2009 8:41am Report this comment@you there. I guess it is feared that even a shiny new PM will only decrease the conservatives' margin of victory rather than turn things round completely, thus taking the gloss off Ed Milliband or whoever and making it even harder to pick up the pieces in time for the *next* election
Silent Hunter
September 13th, 2009 8:58am Report this commentAustin Barry:
"..In the Great Plague they used quicklime to speed putrefication. We have only contempt. It is not enough...."
That's a great line.
Well said.
I too, feel like Victor - I'm tempted to say Oh God no, please keep him in place until the GE because it will guarantee the complete destruction of the Labour Party, but then again, I think of all the damage Labour are doing to our country.
Who knows?
Perhaps he will take one too many of his horse pills and do us all a favour.
BigAl
September 13th, 2009 9:15am Report this commentA return to the Labour party of old, with the Unions and government together deciding socialist policies for the country fills me with dread. Just like it did in the seventies.
Punitive taxes on the rich will lead to a mass exodus of the very people who currently pay the vast majority of income tax.
Messing around with tax relief on pensions messes up small businesses and the self employed. It is interesting to see how the Union bosses want to see this cut but have no desire for pension cuts on public sector workers or cuts in any aspect of public services.
At least we can see that tractor production continues to rise year on year...........
Liz Brown
September 13th, 2009 10:34am Report this commentEd Milliband makes me feel quite nauseous...........(but then do do the rest of them)
EC
September 13th, 2009 11:09am Report this commentNot long now lads. The date of the Irish referendum is Friday 2nd of October.
If the Irish vote YES then we ALL stand a good chance of getting Tony Blair back as EU President.
If the Irish vote NO they we stand a good chance of seeing a suntanned, reinvigorated Tony stride back into No.10 to relieve an ailing Gordon Brown and to save the nation.
Either way the second coming is nigh!
Do all enjoy your Sunday lunch.
Frank P
September 13th, 2009 11:27am Report this commentI think we should stop worrying about Brown and pay attention to what's happening across The Pond. We've been rapaciously and thoroughly Marxed already. The last hope for Western Civilisation rests in the US and it is now also in dire jeopardy.
Mark Steyn, in his inimitable way cuts to the chase:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/health-obama-government-2562126-care-president
Beck may be a bit frenetic and kooky, but he's the only one who is talking sense at the moment. Seems millions over there agree with him, but not this magazine apparently (except brave Mel).
Brown is not the problem. He is indeed politically brown bread. Cameron has his head so far up Obama's ass - he's the problem as he stands a chance of becoming the next tenant of No.10.
john miller
September 13th, 2009 11:50am Report this commentJames, we never have had a Labour Government, we always have had a party seeking re-election. And if you look at it like that, it's hardly surprising that a party concentrating solely on re-election has succeeded in that narrow aim.
Shame really that they have screwed everything else, but then that is what Labour parties always do.
But they won't have any choice about finding a leader next Spring, because Brown won't stay around after then.
Even if it needs an Ernie Saunders or Ken Dodd type illness (fatal when needed but miraculously cured after the crisis) Brown will be out of Downing Street long before the ballot papers are printed.
Can anyone seriously imagine the gutless wonder fighting an election?
JONNY
September 13th, 2009 12:15pm Report this commentThink of it.
Alan Johnson could make history as an entry in the Guiness Book of Records.
The shortest serving PM in the history of insignifcant PMs.(Just a couple of months).
Couldn't happen to a more faceless wonderboy.
Though it might help him draw a nice fat pension.
teledu
September 13th, 2009 12:19pm Report this commentMandelson & co. will happily sell Brown down the river and do nothing to dissuade leadership challenges AFTER the Irish re-referndum has tied us into the Lisbon constitution.
The EU project comes first. Not democracy, not integrity, not honesty, not loyalty to one's country. The EU project comes first. When we all grasp that, we may come to realise what a disastrous, treacherous bunch of fourth-rate politicians we have at Westminster (and much the same can be said of most journalists and the BBC). politsnake-oil
THX1138
September 13th, 2009 11:23pm Report this commentThanks EC
Just got back from a fab time festivaling in Dorset, great bands, organic falafels, a couple of hash flapjacks and super weather.
If bands can patch up their differences and reform why not former leaders and political parties?... After a perfect weekend I can drift off nicely dreaming of the TB reunion tour, it would be sell out of that I'm sure.
To quote Joni Mitchell:
"Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got till its gone"
Blue.Beat
September 14th, 2009 12:00am Report this commentI have heard lots of rumours about whether there will even be an election next year.
1.Brown will call it off because we are at war(he can do that)
2.The Irish vote yes on the treaty, that gets ratified,we are then part of Europe and EU elections are in FIVE YEARS TIME.
3.Brown will throw a sickie so we don't get the satisfaction of booting the moron out.
Any other twilight zone theories welcome.
the pro from dover
September 14th, 2009 12:32pm Report this commentYou forget that no-one in Labour wants the job. Look at recent history in the Tory party after their long period in power.
Hague, Duncan-Smith, 'Something-of-the-night', maybe there were others I can't remember. Labour is lost. I have a funny feeling Mandy might chance it, just to say he was PM once (for 6 months).
That would be a Xmas coup then.
the Pro from Dover
September 14th, 2009 12:36pm Report this commentActually, thought about what I wrote. Brown won't hand over, he will agree to be off sick til next June, and give Mandy the reins rather than the 'Deputy Leader'.
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