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Saturday, 19th September 2009

Is Osborne worth it?

Peter Hoskin 1:47pm

Fresh from winning GQ's Politician of the Year award last week, George Osborne now has an accolade he may be even happier with: heavy praise from both Peter Oborne and Matthew Parris.  Both commentators write columns today which dish out the superlatives for Osborne's response to the fiscal crisis, and suggest he has been vindicated by events.  Here's the key passage from Oborne's article, by way of a taster:

"Slowly Osborne began to win the argument.

First (as I revealed in this column last March), Bank of England governor Mervyn King sent private warnings to the Treasury that he feared extra public spending would damage the official credit ratings that are awarded to the Government as an independent yardstick of the health of the nation's finances.

Then Alistair Darling finally woke up to the urgent need for financial restraint.

The Chancellor tried to raise the issue with the Prime Minister, but he refused to listen.

In despair, he went to Peter Mandelson, who was able to make a very reluctant Brown finally see sense and admit last week that George Osborne and David Cameron had been right all along.

Now Nick Clegg has also been forced to change tack. The Lib Dems are no longer denouncing Osborne for calling for cuts.

Instead, they are trying, very belatedly, to jump on the Osborne bandwagon by setting out their own economy drive.

The first point to note is that, for Osborne personally, this is a simply massive achievement. Remember that traditionally most opposition politicians try to play safe and conform to establishment wisdom.

But Osborne had the vision and courage to try to shape the political weather - and has succeeded magnificently.

Until now, his position has been a little vulnerable, open to the charge that he is essentially a backroom operator prone to juvenile errors of judgment such as his misbegotten meeting last year on a yacht off Corfu with Oleg Deripaska, the controversial billionaire Russian oligarch with disturbing links to Peter Mandelson.

All that can now be set aside."

To some extent, Oborne and Parris are right: Osborne's and the Tories' once lonely emphasis on debt-reduction has now become a near consensus issue.  And it's hard to look back on, say, Osborne's reponse to the Pre-Budget Report last year without some degree of admiration.  There's certainly less grumbling in Tory circles about the shadow chancellor than there was a year ago.

But any praise for Osborne should come with a couple of caveats: one backwards-looking and one forwards-looking.  First, it should be noted that the Tories were themselves extremely hesitant to talk about cuts until Andrew Lansley gaffed by suggesting that 10 percent cuts were official Tory policy.  And, second, the Tories are still unclear about how they will reduce Brown's debt mountain - for all the advances that Osborne has made recently, the job isn't yet even one tenth complete.

On the second caveat, the word is that the Tories are preparing a selection of radical and far-ranging cuts in time for the next election.  If that's the case, then there may be more praise for Osborne to come.
 

Filed under: Andrew Lansley (7 more articles) , Conservatives (292 more articles) , Economy (74 more articles) , George Osborne (51 more articles) , Labour (371 more articles) , Liberal Democrats (40 more articles) , Spending cuts (60 more articles) , Spending plans (18 more articles) , UK politics (606 more articles)

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Any Colour but Brown

September 19th, 2009 2:41pm Report this comment

I'm hardly surprised that the Tories are keeping their cards close to their chests and not making irrational claims.
I wouldn't put it past Labour to steal the idea, lock, stock and barrel, screw it up as only Labour can - and blame the Tories for their it.
The other point is that, as yet, the Tories don't know the exact full extent of Britain's problems - they will only find that out when they get into Govt. It is likely that some of their measures will be simply inadequate for the scale of the problem that Labour have created.

Chuck Unsworth

September 19th, 2009 2:44pm Report this comment

There's a third caveat. Osborne is a politician. He may be right, but part of his job is to present (himself and Conservative policies) well. Will he learn to do this convincingly? Ken Clarke can and does - but he has age, humour, quick wit and experience on his side. Osborne needs to stop looking like a spanked schoolboy and start looking as if he's confident and in control.

Craig Strachan

September 19th, 2009 2:45pm Report this comment

Peter: "it should be noted that the Tories were themselves extremely hesitant to talk about cuts until Andrew Lansley gaffed by suggesting that 10 percent cuts were official Tory policy"

That just goes to illustrate the old truism that a politician gaffes when he inadvertently tells the truth.

G Butler.

September 19th, 2009 2:50pm Report this comment

George Osborne does deserve credit for steering the Tories to a credible approach on the economy.

Osborne wisely avoided tax pledges in the boom years, which allowed him greater freedom to manoeuvre and respond to the recession. He also placed the Tories on the side against extra fiscal stimulus, even though many others were in favour.
As a result the Tories have now taken the lead position on dealing with the economic crisis.

AuldCurmudgeon

September 19th, 2009 2:54pm Report this comment

That's the thing about being right in politics: if it were easy, Gordon Brown would be doing it.

Joanna

September 19th, 2009 3:14pm Report this comment

You're playing Labour's game by being so sniffy about Osborne. He's the second best thing in the Conservatives' favour after David Cameron and Labour know it - which is why they go for him. What grumbling there has been about him is mainly because he's young and people are jealous. Oborne and Parris can see beyond that and so should we.

George Laird

September 19th, 2009 4:41pm Report this comment

Dear All

"Is Osborne worth it?"

Let be clear; he did one thing and one thing only, he wanted to raise inheritance tax.

If Labour hadn't panicked he wouldn't even have had that to crow about.

I say he is a loser and Phillip Hammond should be Chancellor.

There is a classic line in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy;

'who could take Percy Alleline seriously puffing on that log of a pipe'.

Same deal applies to Osbourne.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

John Richardson

September 19th, 2009 5:22pm Report this comment

Those who are trying to convince themselves against all reason and evidence,that the Conservative Party will rescue the Nation,are surly like those who convinced themselves that Tony Blair was a good and honest man back in 1997.
That G.Brown had a clue.
Some are fools.Some are idiots.
Wouldn't it be great if they were right ?
Wouldn't it be great if Party Politics,by some strange Alchemy,was guaranteed to produce the leaders we need.
Con. fail so we all vote Lab.
Lab. fail so we all vote Con.
It is this 'thinking'that causes the increasingly strange P.Obourne to heap such praise on Osborne:he is Johnny one the spot,he is the Shadow Chancellor and as it is the Con.'s turn next,so it follows he must be a man of insight,courage and vision.
Oh please!
Printing/creating vast amounts of money,giving it to the Banks with no strings attached and hoping people will think their children,not themselves,will pay the price, is not an 'economic policy' at all.
How could any Shadow Chancellor support a 'let's buy time until the election is over' strategy ?
If you doubt P.Obourne has 'lost it' simply read his offering of last Saturday.
Hilarious.
The Political Class are parasitic.They all agree on the essentials of a massive Welfare State.Rule from abroad.Enriching themselves personally.Destroying what remains of our culture.
Even P.Obourne recognised this way way way back long ago when the corruption of the political class was still 'news'.Around about April this year.
Now a General Election approaches,it's back to form.
Now, George Osborne is some kind of hero.
You'd think he'd held down an actual job !
You'd think he'd ran a firm or business !
You'd think he'd competed for his current 'position'.
Party Politics may be the only game in town at present.
Well guess what ?
Reality will not be denied forever.
If we chose to entertain fantasy,we will get what we deserve.

God Save Great Britain.

Hysteria

September 19th, 2009 5:41pm Report this comment

so we are led to believe "sharing the proceeds of growth" was just a cunning ploy to avoid scaring the horses?

Marbury

September 19th, 2009 6:19pm Report this comment

Interesting post James, although I'm surprised you neglected Osbourne's public image. He may be getting praise from insiders, but the brute fact is, he's not a popular figure or - crucially - one who inspires trust (a lot of this is to do with the unavoidable truth that he looks even younger than he is). I expect a large amount of Labour fire to be concentrated on him in the campaign. The simple question "Do you want this man in charge of the economy?" next to a picture of his face will probably be quite effective.

Flemingcrag

September 19th, 2009 7:05pm Report this comment

Cuts are only part of the solution, albeit a very necessary one. As Gordon borrowed during the "boom" years to grow his pet Public Sector it is a no-brainer that they are unaffordable now in the depth of a recession. Only the arithmetically challenged in the Labour pary, like Balls and Brown fail to see this, just as they could not see how their action in 1998 would destroy every Private pension in the land.

The other action is to restore order to the banking system by the re-instatement of something akin to the Glass-Steagall act which was repealed in 1999. This malicious and senseless action allowed every bank that wanted to, the means to access the savings of those who had chosen the safe refuge of a High Street savings account paying a modest interest return. This is the money which was used against the express wishes of its owners to create the extra leverage that saw banks indulge in high risk casino activities and the buying of Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps, products that Warren Buffet describe as "weapons of financial destruction".

Gordon wants this madness to return and quickly, whilst speaking with a forked tongue on bankers' bonuses. Goerge Osborne has already provoked some disquiet amongst bankers because it is thought he will ignore the smokescreen of the bonuses and tackle the effect. I for one hope he clarifies his position on this quickly.

TGF UKIP

September 19th, 2009 7:15pm Report this comment

Well the one thing that is crystal clear from all this is that Messrs Oborne and Parris (and for that matter our Pete as well) have a spot of decorating coming up. Mind you, given Osborne's shitty reputation, they had better not be expecting anything better than "end of range" stuff.

Their Boy George puffs, though, really are complete cobblers. Right until just the last few months The Two Tossers dare not go near the issue of reducing spending. Indeed on Marr in late January, the best that Dave could do was to say that in 09/10 he would still increase spending but by just £5bn less than Gordon.

If P&O really do want to sing some praises for a clarion and consistent call for real cuts then the names they should be lauding are Fraser Nelson and Simon Heffer who were pleading for the Tories to get real about public spending for at least the last two years together with the chorus of Coffee Housers and Telegraph readers who loudly agreed with them.

As to the GQ "Politician of the Year" award, Private Eye has an interesting take on the GQ awards pantomime:

"It was in other words the usual orgy of back-scratching for chums of GQ editor Dylan Jones, or people he thinks might be useful to him. Film-maker of the Year: Guy Ritchie, Entrepreneur of the Year: Matthew Freud. Politician of the Year: George Osborne. Shome mistake?

Not at all. Last year's Politician of the Year was Boris Johnson who just happened to write motoring columns for GQ. The 2007 winner was David Cameron who just happened to grant Jones access-all-areas for his pisspoor book about the Tory leader. We wait to see how the preposterously glitzy Osborne will return the favour but he will."

Now the Eye's use of that wonderfully descriptive phrase "the preposterously glitzy" not only means that they've got their eye on him but it chimes in exactly with a snippet of judgement from Frasers piece in the NoW a few weeks back: "Love of luxury (exclusive clubs, private jets, limos etc) is the Shadow Chancellor's biggest weakness. It may yet be his undoing."

Exactly - Place your bets now on whether the Tories will get through to the Election without another Osborne scandal - and it will be a brave man who'll bet they will.

Meanwhile, notwithstanding all the Tory mentions of the billions being spent on consultants as a prime target for major savings, Coffee Housers would be well advised to take all that with a very large pinch of salt.

For, according to my southern spies, who should be the special guest of one of the largest recipients of Whitehall fees, PWC, at the Oval One Day Eng v Aus International, but none other than "the preposterously glitzy" Osborne.

THX1138

September 19th, 2009 7:21pm Report this comment

He may be the darling of the Westminster journalist and wonk classes but as shown by the recent Populus poll in The Times he's not liked by the voters, rather embarrassingly Vince Cable was more trusted on the economy even by Tories than Osborne. ..

The public can smell a wrong'en and judging by the comments that have leaked out from The City from those that have dealt with him, the public distrust is entirely justified.

JohnAnt

September 19th, 2009 8:05pm Report this comment

He looks as if he might have hinter-auricular moistness.
And what are his personal interests and beliefs? His particular qualifications for the job? His political wishes and desires? Apart from the usual Blairite ones of wanting to get elected to government and use it as a stepping stone to international grandstanding, personal enrichment and dynastic networking.
It'd be nice if he'd let us know. His secret would be safe with us.

TrevorsDen

September 19th, 2009 8:16pm Report this comment

It is a hoot watching all the people who cannot believe Osborne is in fact a clever operator and will be a good chancellor.

They have allowed their own ignorance and prejudice to dictate their own view of the world and now they are stuck with a duff paradigm

Who does that remind you of?

Oh
"gaffed by suggesting that 10 percent cuts were official Tory policy. "

Wrong !!
The 10 % actually came from Fraser Nelson and was based on the tory policy of ring fencing Health. This meant the remaining dept budgets which would face cuts of 7% under labour plans (figures ferreted from the red book) would face cuts of 10% under tory plans.
Lansley was just commenting on this - and bearing in mind what has followed it is just another example of being honest with the electorate.

If coffee housers want to repeat Browns lies about this then thats their business.

Dorothy Wilson

September 19th, 2009 9:06pm Report this comment

'The simple question "Do you want this man in charge of the economy?" next to a picture of his face will probably be quite effective.'

Well, that could easily be turned on its head. How about a picture of Brown next to a comment along the lines: Do you want to repeat the damage this man has done to the economy?

Flemingcrag

September 20th, 2009 6:25am Report this comment

It is noticable how many of the comments on this article follow the tribal instincts of most political correspondents in this Country. They invariably attack the man and ignore the ball.

The policies should be the only subject up for debate and all discussion should lead to an answer(s) to this question;
As Gordon Brown had to borrow money during the boom years to finance his spending plans, which included pouring vast sums into the Public Sector and unelected Quangos, how is it possible to manage the economy now without cuts and tax rises?

The right action(s) to deal with this problem is all that matters, not whether Gordon Brown suffered a charisma by-pass at birth or whether George Osborne is a geek from a very priviledged background.

Fergus Pickering

September 20th, 2009 7:49am Report this comment

Experiences at Oxford in the 1960s left me with a prejudice against superior-sounding tits with posh voices, but I don't let a prejudice rule my life. A lot of the bile aginst Osborne seem to come from there. If he is indeed a clever fellow then hooray. We have need of clever fellows. The Labour front bench is stuffed with terrible thickoes and Gordon Brown himself is living proof that an academic can be a fool, if that proposition needed any proving. As for Osborne's face, that is simply childish. We are not voting for a film star or a newsreader. Really some of you need to do better.

RobC

September 20th, 2009 1:07pm Report this comment

Although its taken 12 years of lies,deceit, intrigue and a prostituted press churning out "Gordon is the greatest" we are now confronted with the truth that he has failed miserably and left us virtually destitute.Could Osbourne do a worse job than Brown even without the backing of the press? or,for that matter, could anyone? I doubt it.

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