The Tories lead in the north
David Blackburn 11:10am
Financial Times research has revealed that Labour has lost its traditional northern strongholds under Gordon Brown. Here are the details:
‘The Tories have built a narrow four-point lead in the north, eradicating the 19-point Labour lead in the region that underpinned Tony Blair’s last general election victory, the research shows. The 11.5 percentage point swing from Labour to the Tories in the north since the May 2005 poll is the largest for any region of Britain.
The FT analysis suggests Mr Cameron has yet to win over fully pivotal “Middle England” voters. He has built a convincing lead among the well-off AB upper and upper-middle socio-economic groups. The Tories have achieved a big swing at the other end of the social divide, converting a 12-point deficit to Labour at the last election into a 14-point advantage in polling data for the past three months.’
Such a situation was unthinkable 5 years ago. If this data's accurate, it undermines the received opinion that Labour has ceded working class support to fringe parties, notably the BNP, not the Tories. Labour’s scare tactics about the two-faced Tories and their passion for gleeful cuts have made no impact on the party’s decline. Obviously, with Labour facing annihilation in its own backyard, Mr Brown is under enormous pressure as he approaches what will be a mutinous and extremely depressing conference. Perhaps this will precipitate a lurch to left as the party seeks to re-engage its core vote.
On a separate note, the evidence that Middle England is not fully behind Mr Cameron will cause a few headaches in Central Office. But if the Tories win in Newcastle, a marginal victory in Redditch is of no consequence.
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Paul Williams
September 24th, 2009 11:53am Report this commentAnd to compound Brown's problems, it seems like there's to be another resignation soon: Lady Vadera
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/sep/24/lady-vadera-may-quit
Charlie Dyson
September 24th, 2009 12:03pm Report this commentI won't be finding their conference depressing...
TrevorsDen
September 24th, 2009 12:56pm Report this commentHo hum - not long ago the idiots at the Telegraph (sorry to insult your sister publication) were complaining the Tories were doing badly in the North.
AndyinBrum
September 24th, 2009 1:05pm Report this commentI'm sorry? The North? Where the hell does that cover? The North West, North East, Yorkshire? Lancashire? Cumbria? Northumberland? Or just the apparent hell hole north of Watford Gap Services that you media types appear to think exists?
Stephen
September 24th, 2009 1:21pm Report this comment'Perhaps this will precipitate a lurch to left as the party seeks to re-engage its core vote.'
Well not too much to be feared from that! The Labour party can be as strong as it likes in Newcastle but it won't come close to winning an election by moving to the left. Remember 1983! There is pretty good evidence over the last 30 years that the party that is perceived to vacate the centre ground loses votes.
Having said that, this might be one of those elections when one party is in such a mess that it could be beaten by almost any policy from the other party. 1979, 83 and 97 are the best recent examples. 2010 might give the Tories the chance, if they have the courage, to move further to the right.
Disorganised1
September 24th, 2009 3:31pm Report this commentIs that why we're sacrificing a West Midland car plant to protect jobs in Liverpool ?
Chris
September 24th, 2009 4:16pm Report this commentThe Tories are ahead in Scotland? Blimey! Oh no, I see what you mean by 'the North.' As the Aberdonian comedy trio Scotland the What? used to say, 'We're from the Northeeat. Not the Northeast of Britain; that's Newcastle.'
Dirty Euro
September 24th, 2009 4:29pm Report this commentWhy do these things always wind me up?
Oh well I support independence for Scotland. England is too right wing a country. All we will get is tax cuts for rich people on the back of our oil money.
Why is England so right wing? What happened to society and concern for others? Those values seem to be dead in England.
Nicholas
September 24th, 2009 4:32pm Report this commentWell, a party that has managed to embrace the worst of the extreme (national socialist) right and the worst of the extreme left whilst pretending to be a party of the centre deserves the impending annihilation. My hope is that the bulk of New Labour's disagreeable MP's lose their seats and no longer hold power over us. The destruction of the cabinet is just the icing on the cake and I look forward with undisguised glee to the prospect of seeing Brown's gang of charlatans turfed out of Westminister en masse. So many Portillo moments to enjoy. I just wish I could be omnipresent and throw rotten eggs at each and every one of them.
David Ossitt
September 24th, 2009 4:56pm Report this commentEverything is coming up roses.
Kristian Pedersen
September 24th, 2009 4:57pm Report this commentI expect that the northeast of England will still support Labour, especially as most people there are dependent on public sector jobs. Look at the many administrative offices moved there, strictly to win seats. In Northumberland, we are firmly committed to the Liberal Democrats for some curious reason (naturally, I do not share this fondness for that party !). It may be that the local MP is actually a good constituency representative, or that they cannot bring themselves to contemplate life without massive subsidies and a nanny-state to protect them from the vicissitudes of the market.
I am still puzzled by Scotland's incorrigible socialistic tendencies, uttered so well by DirtyEuro. Caring for others is not well served by passing money on to people that have no intention of working nor the slightest interest in improving themselves. I work in Scotland, and I have worked in Newcastle, and am still shocked at how there are some communities where people have been on benefits for four generations. They exhort their children to ignore education and to depend on the state for everything, all because they feel aggrieved that the modern economy made their completely uncompetitive and antiquated industries redundant. Bunch of sponging Luddites ...
Sir Graphus
September 24th, 2009 5:18pm Report this commentDirty Euro, we knew you were a socialist, but didn't know you were a Scot. I support Scottish Independence too, if that's what you chaps want. You might find, though that the story of the oil money bankrolling England is a bit of a myth, though. When you go, will you please take your share of the national debt (including the liabilities of your toxic banks) and the obligation to fund the pensions of all those Scots employed in the public sector. See how far the oil money goes after that. This could be something of a messy divorce.
England is right wing because we believe that you can't start redistributing wealth before you've created it. I would have thought the last dozen years of rule by the Scottish cabal would amply prove our point.
Finally, please don't claim compassion and the right wing to be mutually exclusive (though you would have plenty of evidence for your case from many commenters at this site). I wouldn't call this govt compassionate. Compassion includes a concern and due regard for how hard people work for their money before they tax and waste it. There's nothing compassionate about Brown ruining our pensions. There's also nothing compassionate about trapping people in welfare dependency. There's nothing compassionate about ID cards at all. There's nothing compassionate about sending soldiers into war, ill-equipped. The list is endless.
Jack R
September 24th, 2009 7:06pm Report this commentThe Conservative Party now control Lancashire County Council, but continues to set up non-jobs like this in the interests of 'immigrants', sorry, ''migrants'.
This is political correctness, multiculturalism and waste all in one non-job.
A portent of a Tory government:
{Excerpt from Lancashire County Council vacancies} -
"Salary £27573 to £ 29714
Term Full-time.
Perm / Temp Temporary.
Required (01/10/2009 to 01/10/2010) .
Hours 37 hours a week.
Closing Date 03/10/2009.
Directorate Office of the Chief Executive.
"Location
Policy Unit, Preston, PR1 8XJ
"Summary
The post holder will be responsible for a Mythbusting Project. The overall goal of the project is to research Lancashire communities attitudes and responses to migrants and formulate and deliver a positive campaign to dispel negative myths and perceptions towards migrants. This work will be done in close partnership with all representatives of the Lancashire Community Cohesion Partnership and members of the communities where there are high concentrations of migrants.
Desirable Qualifications
Recognised PR/Marketing qualification, preferably at degree level. "
David Ossitt
September 24th, 2009 7:25pm Report this commentSir Graphus.
Well said sir; however I am not as sure, as you would appear to be that Dirty Euro is a Scot; I have a mental picture of him being from the Socialist Republic of Rotherham.
I too; yearn for an independent Scotland, we the English have been paying for their socialist state for far too long, it is high time that they paid all of their own bills.
AndyinBrum
September 24th, 2009 10:30pm Report this commentCome on Mr Blackburn, I want a slightly better idea of where this 'North' is.
ta
Paul B
September 25th, 2009 8:16am Report this commentDirty Euro, what happened to hardwork and caring for yourself and ones own family in Scotland, rather than poncing off my-English-taxpayers money?
2trueblue
September 25th, 2009 11:25am Report this commentLet Scotland go and we will all be richer, they will have to get real and live within their means, not ours! Living within our means is how we look after ourselves and then we can look after others. Making people dependant, removing their aspirations is not compassion, it is tyranny.
Yorkshire Lass
September 25th, 2009 8:58pm Report this commentStephen..Sept 24..1.21pm..
WE UP NORTH ARE SICK OF THE LEFT!!!!
WE WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE LEFT WE WILL GO RIGHT...FAR RIGHT AND THEN SOME!!!
THE EUROPEAN VOTES WERE JUST A TASTER.
WATCH THE BARNSLEY ELECTION RESULTS...THE BNP ARE ON A ROLL THERE...A MAJOR LABOUR SEAT!!!!LEFT...DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH..OR IS THAT CRY?
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