One last chance on Lisbon?

Plato-Says

:) Dan knew something messy was on the cards - the potential for German citizens to claim assets is a hot button for some Czechs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8299485.stm

Publius

"possibly endanger the Czech’s membership"

More dark threats from the Euro-bullies, which Mr Blackburn seems to support. And how, Mr Blackburn, does such a move endanger the Czechs' membership exactly? The truth is that it doesn't at all.

Laughing Gravy

This will delay things but whether it will last long enough is doubtful. I expect the Czechs to be offered the Irish solution: a binding promise for their opt out of the Charter to be included in the Croation Accession Treaty.
Happy Birthday Mr Cameron

David Blackburn

Publius, The Czechs' membership is endangered because they have to ratify the treaty to stay in the union. Renegotiations might, might prove a bridge too far because a retrospective opt-out is unlikely to be granted unless the Czechs issue threats. On this occassion, it's not the EU who will be issuing threats, but a member state. But, what happens if the EU calls the Czechs' bluff...? I agree, it's tendentious but possible; in any event, I don't think that Klaus will do anything other than sign."

Publius

Mr Blackburn
"The Czechs' membership is endangered because they have to ratify the treaty to stay in the union."

No they don't, any more than Ireland had to ratify the treaty to stay in the EU.

If Ireland had stuck to its initial referendum decision they would NOT have ratified the Lisbon treaty and they WOULD have stayed in the EU.

David Blackburn

Publius, That's because more than one nation still had to ratify. The Poles have said they will ratify - that leaves the Czechs alone. They must sign, derail a self-amending treaty (hmm?) or leave. Which do you suppose is the most likely outcome? I suspect they'll sign, but they key is whether they hold out long enough to enable us to force the Tories into to giving us a refernedum, which I hope is what happens. But that does seem very unlikely.

Publius

Mr Blackburn:
"That's because more than one nation still had to ratify."
--The above point is wholly irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many EU nations still have to ratify. Unless ratification is unanimous, the treaty does not come into force.

"They must sign... or leave."
-- Nonsense.

"...hold out long enough to enable us to force the Tories into to giving us a refernedum, which I hope is what happens."
--If that happened, then by your argument the UK would be in the same position you claim the Czechs are in now, namely that they must sign or leave. You are wrong.

I repeat, if the treaty is not ratified by ALL members of the EU, then it does not come into force.

David Blackburn

Publius,

You are right in everything except that the UK has ratified the treaty. The Czechs are alone.

Cuffleyburgers

David - pubòius is right, if the irish or the Poles or the Czechs or god help us the English do not ratify then the treaty cannot come into force, ergo status quo ante.

sptvk

Support Vaclav Klaus! Stop the Lisbon Treaty!

http://supportvaclavklaus.wordpress.com/

http://www.petitiononline.com/sptklaus/petition.html

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=144395234460

Rob C

I think with strikes in the pipeline, a very precarious economy and an even more precarious government, we could see some big problems this winter. Fuel prices are going to rise, an energy crisis lurks in the wings and the Civil Service Unions are on suicide watch... If DC holds his nerve and builds up the pressure on government, it might just fall apart long before May 2010. I personally would be surprised if we don't go to the polls early. People are rightfully angry about the mess this government has made and whilst Brown holds out for a 'game changing' event, I suspect it won't change in his direction. New Labour have so many skeletons in the cupboard now, it can only be a matter of time before it all implodes. A couple of defections (to Conservative or Lib Dem ranks) or another Baroness Scotland event and we could yet go to the polls before the Czechs ratify!

Publius

Mr Blackburn.
--Thank you for having the grace to concede.

"You are right in everything except that the UK has ratified the treaty"

-- Agreed. But if the treaty has not been ratified unanimously then it does not come into force.

If it has not come into force, then a future Conservative government has promised to withdraw the UK's ratification, as it is fully entitled to do, pending the outcome of a referendum.

And, of course, if that referendum should vote no, then the UK will not ratify.

And, to repeat, unless there is unanimous ratification, then the Lisbon treaty is dead, and, as Cuffley says, the EU returns to status quo ante.

This is not a parti pris point -- though you know my own views -- but a mere statement of the facts.

emil

Somebody help me here.

Since Ireland obviously got some concessions on the original constitutional treaty, and czech republic are certain to get other concessions.. exactly which version of the treaty did our PM ratify "on our behalf" ?

Vulture

@Publius
I agree with you entirely, execept you are forgetting one thing. The EUrocrats will not let a small thing like legality stand in their way. They will force through this treaty come what may, no matter what the Poles, Czechs or even we Brits say. A power which overrode the French, the Dutch and the Irish to get this stinking thing through will literally stop at nothing. Only the resistance of the free people of Europe will stop the march to dictatorship.

Pete, Scotland

"But, what happens if the EU calls the Czechs' bluff...? "

Maybe, they are starting to think that a Russia-China alliance may be a better option?

Maybe they realise that by allowing the British to have a democratic vote things are less likely to fall apart at crunch time.

Cuffleyburgers

Emil I think the point is that the so-called concessions that Mr Cowen "extracted" from the EU are no such thing, they are vague promises regarding clauses to be attached to the next accession treaty, presumably croatia, at some yet-to-be defined time in the future. The same applies to the Czech concessions I imagine. As for the Germans, their consitutional court has ruled that the self-amending clauses in Lisbon are unconstitutional for the Germans, and so the Germans are looking for a parliamentary instrument to get around that. We all know the French, Italians and Spanish will ignore any bits they don't like (besides which it was drafted to suit French megalomania) so really the only people who are likely to suffer the full consequences of Lisbon is the one country whose government lacked the wit even to press for concessions let alone a referendum - GB's GB! Isn't life grand!!

Pass the vaseline Alice...

JohnAnt

This gets more confusing with each discussion. Has the UK - or has it not - secured an opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Human Rights that Lisbon will introduce?
And yes, I know about the H o C European Scrutiny Committee's doubts as to whether the opt-out is strongly enough worded, but what does our opt-out actually do?