Inscrutable polls
Peter Hoskin 3:39pm
And so the strangeness continues: the latest Ipsos MORI poll has the Tories leaping a hefty 7 points to 43 percent, while Labour climb 2 to 26 percent, and the Lib Dems fall 6 points to 19 percent. It's most likely a correction from their last poll – which had the Lib Dems above Labour for the first time since the 1980s – but the Tories' 17-point lead is still at odds with some of the other polls we've seen recently. I'm sure CCHQ will be pleased, but, as I said yesterday, it's worth waiting a few weeks until the polls settle before drawing judgement.
UPDATE: Guardian/ICM also gives the Tories a 17-point lead.
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Peter From Maidstone
October 20th, 2009 3:54pm Report this commentActually it is not worth looking at any poll. They only have a measure of validity when aggregated and considered over a long period. It is a waste of ink to worry away at first one poll and then another.
The Conservatives are in the lead but there is a large minority of Labour supporters who are being paid to vote for the status quo. There is not much more that any particular poll can say.
Charles Flaccidwidger
October 20th, 2009 4:16pm Report this commentI've had serious doubts about polls since those in 1992 showed Labour with (if I recall) a lead of around 7 points.
Andrew Savage
October 20th, 2009 4:50pm Report this commentThe problem is that these polls survey only a borderline significant number of people - usually 1000. I realise the cost of polling, but a company that regularly surveyed 2000 people instead would get much better results.
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October 20th, 2009 5:51pm Report this commentDidn't we do polls yesterday? Along with the BNP.
Boring, boring,boring.
oldtimer
October 20th, 2009 6:47pm Report this commentComparing polls between different pollsters can produce inaccurate results because of differences in methologies.
The most reliable pollster of UK political opinion is ICM - based on track record. This has been well demonstrated over at the Polling Report and Political Betting web sites.
On the ICM evidence, Labour looks beyond electoral redemption next Spring either with or without the Millichumps at the helm.
oldtimer
October 20th, 2009 8:02pm Report this commentFor methologies above, read methodologies.
TrevorsDen
October 20th, 2009 8:09pm Report this commentPB.com also give a 17 point lead.
If you look back to the last MORI poll before the conference season it also gave a 17 point lead. So nothing inscrutable. 4 polls, 3 after and one before - all give 17 point leads.
Tiberius
October 20th, 2009 8:41pm Report this commentDoes the "S" "I" stand for anything?
AlisonC
October 20th, 2009 9:20pm Report this commentRather than banging on about polls, could you not say something cogent about the public sector debt, which is now 59% of GDP? I think it is more important than boring boring polls. Which are er... boring.
Fergus Pickering
October 21st, 2009 4:58am Report this commentNo, no, Alison C. It is the Public Sector Debt which is boring. It's very big and it needs to be paid back. What else is there to say about it. Whereas gossip - and polls are gossip - is endlessly interesting. Or so I think, but then I am irrewdeemably shallow.
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