Once again, Britain stands alone
David Blackburn 1:16pm
It’s fortunate that pluck and stoicism are fundamental British characteristics and that we are at our best when backs are to the wall. Figures published today suggest that the US economy grew by an annualised 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Britain is now alone among developed countries in fighting a shrinking economy. So much for Mr Brown’s confidence last autumn and Alistair Darling’s growth forecasts. Even Italy is doing better.
One crumb of comfort for Labour is that the American consumer has regained confidence thanks to government stimulus: sales of manufactured goods, such as cars covered by the government scheme, are up by 22.3 percent. This should have global consequences that benefit Britain. The chief problem for Brown is that his stimulus has not had the same effect. I suspect that any growth will come too late to save a Prime Minister who staked everything on Britain recovering first and strongest.
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Dirty Euro
October 29th, 2009 1:26pm Report this commentThe USA econcomy fell by 12% with 5 and 6% in q42008 and q1 2009. Sp the USA is still way behind everyone else. The socialist policies are digging it out of a hole.
Surely this is more evidence that we need more not less socialist government.
Cynic
October 29th, 2009 1:30pm Report this commentI see we are best placed to weather the crisis, then.
HJ
October 29th, 2009 1:31pm Report this commentThe US economy did not grow by 3.5% in the quarter. 3.5% was the annualised equivalent of the quarterly rate (Americans often quote it in this way) - a rather different thing.
Naomi Muse
October 29th, 2009 1:33pm Report this commentNice to see the PM looking chipper in the pic and holding up against all odds.
A sunny smile, head and number '10' at a jaunty angle and sporting the remembrance poppy - we're all set for the fray of repeating recovery from recession is underway whilst the rest of us wait for the double dip..and more personal disasters.
Dear Gordon Brown, Please call a general election now, so that we can get on with the recovery.
Scott
October 29th, 2009 1:53pm Report this commentwe are the best placed...blah blah blah, we will grow by the end of the year blah blah blah, the Tories don't know what they are doing blah blah blah......just hot air!!
Bruce Robertson
October 29th, 2009 2:06pm Report this commentUS Government spending up 5.5% QoQ for a 3.5% QoQ GDP print.
Not too good.
paul hughes
October 29th, 2009 2:08pm Report this comment"M..M.. M.. M.. Mr.. S.. S.. S.. peaker. We were wrong on the recession. I have to tell him, I have to t.. tell him that we were also wrong on the recovery. It was a global recession. It's now a global recovery. We are, we are the best placed country to deal with the British recession. Moral compass, tories are evil. Benefit the few... Please, do as the bloke from The Independent s..s..says. Shoot me!"
Hawkeye
October 29th, 2009 2:12pm Report this commentOnce again Gordon reveals just how pathetic and ineffective he is as both Chancellor and PM.
No further proof is needed. The only question remaining is how much more structural damage will he inflict on the UK before we finally get shot of him.
Can anyone still imagine this fiscal joke of a man working for the IMF or World Bank? With his record?
se1man
October 29th, 2009 2:17pm Report this commentSo Gordon the Colossus has led the way and saved the world... but saved the rest of the world without managing to drag the UK out of recession. Thanks Gordo.
No doubt the fact that "the American consumer has regained confidence" is something for which we should all be jolly grateful and for which Brown will claim full credit.
"Even Italy is doing better". Ye gods.
Moraymint
October 29th, 2009 2:30pm Report this commentYep, we ain't getting out of Brown's midden in a hurry.
The problem is that from around the middle of 2010 onwards, it will become patently obvious that the Tories are as clueless about economic management as the Marxist nutters that preceded them.
Next year we'll be observing and experiencing the full-on effects of living in a country burdened with national debt and contingent liabilities of £2,354 billion (a mere 161% of GDP), presided over by a government that hasn't the faintest idea how to cut public spending by the 20% - 30% needed to prevent Gordon Brown's carefully masterminded "bust" becoming the ultimate reality.
I live more in hope than expectation that our political class will eventually wake up to just what lies around the corner. Meantime, as ever, they have their expenses and second home allowances to worry about.
Will J
October 29th, 2009 2:42pm Report this commentYes, but isn't the US "recovery" transient, primarily resulting from the government's obscene debt-fuelled spending splurge? Aren't they just heading towards another crash?
Naomi Muse
October 29th, 2009 3:29pm Report this commentMany expect the double dip to occur in the first half of 2010.
Luke
October 29th, 2009 3:33pm Report this commentThe quicker US recovery is explained almost entirely by their larger stimulus. If Osborne stood up and made the claim you are making here, that the US recovery somehow vindicates his approach he would be met by howls of laughter by any serious commentator.
michael
October 29th, 2009 3:37pm Report this commentWe dont have our backs against the wall.
We have been driven headlong into it.
Moraymint
October 29th, 2009 3:51pm Report this commentWill J
The answer is, "Yup".
Olaf Rye
October 29th, 2009 4:24pm Report this commentSocialist policies have worked brilliantly--look at our debt burden ! We have condemned two generations to pay off the immense public expenditure on civil servants and there is no economic recovery to be seen. Even if we see a modest rise, it is still scarcely worth the cost of the 'Brown Solution'. At least the US has an immense military capability ... what do we have to show for our debt, apart from bureaucrats that meddle in our lives ?
Norman Dee
October 29th, 2009 4:25pm Report this commentHawkeye, based on recent performances, just take Kinnock for example, then yes it's entirely possible another failure will get a soft ride and a huge pension.I gave up hope on Justice when Idi Amin was allowed to live in luxury in Saudi Arabia instead of being shot as he deserved.
Maggie
October 29th, 2009 5:01pm Report this commentHow lucky for the US ( and everybody else) to be enjoying a real cast iron recovery when all we've got is an imaginary Gordon Brown one.
Chris Cook
October 29th, 2009 6:18pm Report this comment@Maggie
The US recovery is made of cast cardboard. It is a blip.
Chris
October 29th, 2009 6:57pm Report this commentStaying out of the euro and letting the pound crash at the first sign of trouble turned out not to be a stroke of genius after all. Well what a surprise. The sooner we join the euro and get our monetary policy out of the hands of the complete bunch of idiots who run it now, the better.
Roger
October 29th, 2009 7:00pm Report this commentI would like someone to tell me exactly what it will take to return our national debts, including PFI, to <40% of GDP asap and when will asap be? Also if the legions of Labour appointed Public Sector jobs-worthies are part of the problem rather than the cure why are they not made redundant as they obviously are? Why do we have to carry on increasing our borrowings to fund what we will shortly have to axe?
emil
October 29th, 2009 7:13pm Report this commenthmm ; More Socialist policies DE?
Well those are on the way thanks to the Lisbon stitch up, meanwhile objective#1 in the EUSSR region formerly known as Great Britain is to get rid of the useless buffoon who sold all our gold, trashed all our pensions and saddled our great , great grandchildren with a mountain of debt.
2trueblue
October 29th, 2009 7:52pm Report this commentRoger, don't worry about it, we will all be long gone by the time anyoone has figured it out. The figures we are given about our debt liabilities are a very conservative guesstimate as no one knows what has not yet been declared.
This applies to all countires at present.
Listen to the language used to express the figures, the devil is in the detail. We are a long way off recovery. Europe has lots of problems, who for instance is going to replace Germanys buyers? Their growth came from the Eastern block which will not have the money to buy now. Whatever way they express it we are nowhere near stability and a smooth path to growth. Brown couldn't balance the books in the good times so he will always be alone with his own set of figures and way out on a limb.
Cottage Pie
October 29th, 2009 7:55pm Report this commentGordon Brown 2007
'I can report the British economy is today growing faster than all the other G7 economies and that after 10 years of sustained growth, Britain's growth will into its 60th and 61st quarter and beyond. Mr Deputy Speaker, before 1997 we were bottom in the G7 for national income per head - seventh out of seven, behind Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan. Now we are second only to America and ahead of all these countries.
So Mr Deputy Speaker, we expect that next year, in 2008, alongside North America, our growth will again be the highest in the G7 - between 2½ and 3 per cent - with the same rate of growth also in 2009 .Debt is 44 per cent of national income in the USA, 50 per cent in the euro area, and 92 per cent in Japan, but in Britain we expect debt from 2007-08 to 2012 to be 38.2, 38.5, 38.8, 38.8 and 38.6 per cent - at all times meeting our second fiscal rule. This contrasts with a debt level of 44 per cent when we came to power. Britain's net borrowing, which in the early 1990s went as high as 8 per cent of our national income is this year just 2.7 per cent. In the future years to 2011-12 it will be 2.4, falling to 2.0, and then falling to 1.8, 1.6 and 1.4 per cent.
Just over a decade ago, when unemployment and debt were high, as much as three quarters of all new public spending went to pay for debt and social security costs, leaving only one quarter of new spending for health, education, transport, defence and policing. Because of our success in cutting debt interest by a quarter and claimant count unemployment by a half, these front line services will, in the coming spending round, receive not 25 per cent but 75 per cent of all new spending.
Where did it all go wrong? Gordon
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