Electoral wipe-out

logdon

I just said this on Melanies blog

Vulture

'Surely it can't be that bad? Surely' > Bit of a Freudian slip, there David. What you should have said was : 'Surely it can't be that good'.

Nicholas

As many as a 120 eh? Well, I suppose there is no accounting for the percentage of deranged and deluded fools still at large in the population and I suppose all those bloggers who know best will be voting for the shits too.

Keith

In the light of developments generally over the past 12 years I suggest that the interests of Parliamentary democracy would be best served by the complete annihilation of the Labour Party as an electoral force in th UK.

Alexandrovich

Yeah yeah. Their popularity has been up and down like a whore's drawers over the last couple of years.
Is this meant to assuage our anger?

2trueblue

1. This may be a scam.Pur a rumour out that wipeout is imminent and get people out to vote.

2. If true. what wonderful news.

It is a long way til the next election. Mandy has been awfully quiet, and he has let Brown out on his own........ watch this space.

Billy Blofeld

The complete and permanent destruction of the Labour party is a just a noble cause.

Each Labour government delivers very similar results for this country, as achieved by the combined efforts of the Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine and Wehrmacht during the 1940's.

Chris lancashire

New Labour has worked hard to get this position. Thoroughly deserved.

Ed P

That's still 120 too many. The years ahead in the wilderness will give them time to rebuild from the terrible damage Bliar & Broon have inflicted on Labour (& democracy too).

Boudicca

Labour will be lucky to get a handful of seats south of Oxford (except possibly a few in London). With the SNP taking previously rock-solid Labour seats in Scotland; Plaid Cymru and, surprisingly, the Tories doing well in Wales and the BNP taking large numbers of previously Labour core votes in Northern heartlands - I think it could well be electoral oblivion for Labour.

I do hope so. We need a new Opposition, and under our FPTP system, one won't emerge until Labour is fatally and permanently weakened.

If that means a Parliament or two of strong semi-Tory Government under Cameron - so be it. Hopefully a new proper Conservative Party will emerge - preferebly under Hannan.

Modellista

Good.

Nothing less than the traitors deserve.

Dave

"I can’t help thinking that opposition fragmented between Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP would not best serve the interests of parliamentary democracy"

It may have escaped your notice but, in the June 2009 election, UKIP came 2nd, above both Labour and Lib Dems. Is their ommission from your comments deliberate?

Simon

If it were to happen it would be good news. The end of Labour as a party of government would be a huge step forward for the Country. Some centralist alternative would soon emerge and we could have two non socialist parties competing for government.

Dennis Churchill

Yes it can be that bad. Labour has lost the White Working Class vote, without which it cannot win.
Immigration on the scale Labour introduced was a gamble as to whether it could introduce Labour supporting voters quicker than it lost its traditional supporters, due to the problems caused to them by mass immigration.
It is interesting to speculate whether a political class, dependant on being elected ,can afford to be non-patriotic, as this issue will start to eat into the Conservatives vote with UKIP.After all if you are a shareholder in Coca-Cola you don’t expect your board of directors to treat Pepsi’s shareholders’ interests in the same way as yours.

Simon Denis

Oh please let it be true!

Rob

Well that's fine if it happens. Since I'll be voting for UKIP - at least if Lord Pearson becomes the new party head - the more damage wreaked on the main parties the better. Incidentally, whether you or approve or disapprove of UKIP I'd like to see more analysis of their policies. Pearson is reportedly in favour of reducing the number of MP's to 250, considerably more than Cameron's feeble gestures in that direction. There are other policies that strike me as eminently sensible but unless they can escape being seen as a single issue party it'll be for naught. Well, we'll see.

Sir Graphus

I doubt Conservative Central Office are feeling terribly bullish either, after last week.

Colin

It would certainly explain why a number of regime henchmen are spending time angling for political jobs outside Westminster, rather than putting all of their energy into running the country.

BrianSJ

The liberals seem to be avoiding attacking Labour with the aim of becoming the opposition for the second Tory term. I suspect that, if they can hang in there, they will be very effective.

Rob C

Labour are finished. The Sandal brigade will be the new voice of opposition in 2010. I've posted similar elsewhere before and I think the LD's believe the same - thus the tactics of targeting Cameron & Tories at their conference. They won't 'win' this time around, but by appealing to the anti-tory vote, they might just get 2nd place and then it's a whole new ballgame come 2015...

Rainer Unsinn

"Nicholas
As many as a 120 eh? Well, I suppose there is no accounting for the percentage of deranged and deluded fools still at large in the population and I suppose all those bloggers who know best will be voting for the shits too."
How many immigrants have Labour let through in the last 12 years? That'll be about how many votes they get.

JohnOfEnfield

Any party which puts the acquisition & retention of power above principle will be found out in the end.

Any party which seeks to gain advantage by always smearing its opponents, internal & external, will be found out in the end.

Any party which constrains its room for manoeuvre by hugely over-borrowing will crash into a brick wall.

I hope & pray that New Labour gets its just deserts in the forthcoming General Reckoning.

.... .... ......

A bit wildly optimistic there matey.
Good giggle though.

Andy Carpark

Dave @ 2:07pm. The clue is in the oxymoron, 'Parliamentary democracy'.

Frank P

David your slip is showing!

"Surely it can’t be that bad? Surely?"

Surely you mean it can't be that good? Surely?

Percy

Boudicca, I'm not sure how the robotic sounding Mr Hannan would go down with the wider electorate. He does come over a bit weird.

Dennis Churchill

As I wrote above our political class needs to consider whether patriotism, real or pretended, is necessary to reassure voters they can be trusted to work for the interests of the electorate.
It is all very Right On to be an Internationalist and want to Teach the World to Sing/ and in the words of the song: Turn out coffee coloured people by the score.—but the electorate want a board of directors to look after their (shareholders’) interests and b***** the starving multitudes of destitute economic migrants and as for the E.U....

Alex R

Well connected she might be, but a psephologist she ain't. We'll see.

One thing I can guarantee is that she'll write a piece before the year is out saying that Tories are yet to "seal the deal".

The Laughing Cavalier

Miliband major and a few selected rats might be able to parachute themselves into comfy sinecures in Brussels but who will employ the rest of of the Loons?

oldtimer

This forecast has been comprehensively rubbished by Anthony Wells at UKPollingReport - along with just about every other forecast based on "private polling". The published newspaper polls are a much better guide. ICM polls have the best track record and are based on a consistent methodology. If you must follow polls, then follow them.

Verity

Percy, you must be a recent product of the British educational system. Mr Hannan comes across as articulate, thoughtful, daring and action-oriented.

Perhaps he could give some interviews, a la Tony Blair, in which he says things like, "Well, yer, like, I dunno reely. 'S'all a load of old rubbish reely, innit."

JONNY

Always hate to disagree with Frank P.
But there's no great reason to suppose Hannan would do any better than Hague as Tory Leader.
Forget please the trivial fact that bald-headed men don't seem to get elected.
Since Attlee that is.
The real point is that of the two, Billy (as they seem to call him now) looks a shade more simpatico to the sick, ancient and downtrodden.
Too clever by half Hannan gives the impression that he's short on the milk of human kindness quotient.
Cameron looks as if he cares, even if he doesn't.
That's all that seems to matter with bumper voting segments like the OAPs.

Glenn Otto

I think, on balance Labour is due for a wipeout.

However the Blairites will leave in the meltdown and join the Liberals.

Then back to the fight for the middle ground.

Back to to swing politics.

2015 Banking crisis oh hem

Vulture

JONNY@ 'Cameron looks as if he cares, even if he doesn't. That's all that seems to matter with bumper voting segments like the OAPs.' And, given your slavish support for him, dare one suggest, with your good self, Jonners?

Anne Wotana Kaye

All is not lost for NU Labour. They still have time to make a few million workers redundant and dependant on Benefits. They still have time to let in a million or so immigrants, and quickly process their papers, fixing it so that they have "postal" votes. If all fails, they will call a State of Emergency and shut shop as far as election polls go. We need Karzi to send his bods to sort out Democracy in Britain !

Frank P

Jonny

Bollocks! I'm a VOAP and me and my ilk would vote for a chimpanzee, if it would promise to curtail immigration, restore our sovereignty and destroy the European Constitution masquerading as a 'treaty' forged at a Portuguese piss-up and agreed by a British traitor who slipped in through the back door on a bad news day in Britain and appended his Hancock. Basta!

Trafalgar

It's unlikely that Labour will end up with fewer than 180 seats. The electoral system is too heavily weighted in its favour.

According to Electoral Calculus, even if Labour polled 23% and the LDs 25%, Labour would still end up with double the number of LD seats. Something is badly wrong with the system.

Much depends on how Labour does in Scotland - where the SNP has lost a lot of support through its handling of the Lockerbie bomber affair.

Dave, UKIP came second in the European elections, but voters change their vote when faced with FPTP rather than PR and, in the main, will view a UKIP vote as a wasted vote.

The wild-card is the expenses scandal, and the extent to which this affects incumbents.

Verity: "action-oriented"?

General Zod

It's actually the OAPs like Frank Potty-Mouth and the rest that don't like Cameron.

The Conservative events where I've seen him are oversubscribed and packed mostly with people in their 20s, 30s and 40s.

Philip

2trueblue: "Mandy has been awfully quiet, and he has let Brown out on his own".

Of course he has. The Lisbon treaty is now de facto in place so he doesn't need Brown any more.

Boudicca

Frank P
November 9th, 2009 5:05pm

And I work in the public sector. Which just goes to show that we don't all automatically vote Labour because 'the Govt' pays our wages.

TrevorsDen

"opposition fragmented between Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP would not best serve the interests of parliamentary democracy,"

Oh here we go again. I do not expect a big landslide majority - but if it happens I will lap it up. No labour supporter would be whining like that. Tories must go as hard as they can because Labour will not be holding back.

2trueblue

Philip, have been saying for ages that Mandy came back especially to keep Labour intact and prevent an early election until the treaty was ratified. What now for Mandy?

Bexleyite

"a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible"

A move to Europe looks the only sensible option for many of those in the Labour party.

At least no one will be looking at their expenses, or their intellect, or their credentials. Or even their balls.

Andy Leeds

Please God let it be so. But even 120 seats is far too many. What we need is to destroy the Labour Party which has been nothing but a cancer in our society since it was formed.

JONNY

Lookee Vulture,
I had hoped by now I would have made it clear that my support for Cameron (never slavish) was all about getting behind the Leader just months away from Election.
And not ending up with Brown Egg all over our waistcoats - as your attitude threatens.
When and if we get into power we'll see who's slavish then.

As for you Frank P - I go along with much of what you write. Always have. Just warning - don't let's get carried away. Whatever his faults Cameron is the only one of the 3 Leaders who could deliver some of what you want. Otherwise you'll be an OAP whistling through his dentures.
Not that yours are.

Fergus Pickering

What nonsense you talk. Why would it not serve the interest of democracy for the tories to win with a landslide? What interests? What democrarcy? What? I'll tell you what I want. I want the collapse of the Labour Party for ever and the Tories in for twenty years. I why would that not serve the interests of democracy. destroy the Beeb. Out of the EU. Closer links with the English speaking peoples. The British (or the English) will love it.

roger slade

I do hope she's right. No wonder her husband is so glum and left-biased on his Sunday morning TV show.

.... .... ......

Boudicca.
The government DO NOT pay your wages...the TAXPAYER does.
Alfie G

Peter From Maidstone

Boudicca, it doesn't need every public sector worker to vote Labour, just enough to make it worth while increasing the public sector.

According to IPSOS Mori presently, even with the horrific state of the country, 30% of public sector workers still insist they will vote Labour, while only 20% of private sector ones will. Now both are workers. But why are those employed by the state much more likely to vote for the state?

A little earlier in the year 42% of public sector workers said they would vote Labour while only 28% of private sector workers would.

Private sector workers work in offices, in factories, in dirt and grime as much as public sector workers. It is reasonable to ask why, doing similar work, they are much more likely to vote Labour.

It seems a reasonable conjecture that an employee will vote for his or her employer, and by implication for the preservation of their job. It is irrelevant that some public sector workers will be voting Conservative, Labout doesn't need all of those on its payroll to vote for it, but if it can skew the demographics by employing a huge percentage of the population - and the NHS is one of the world's biggest state enterprises, then democracy is damaged and it is possible to buy an election.

The fact that 80% of immigrants seem to vote Labour is also damaging to democracy. It is not a matter of finding exceptions to the rule, it is a percentages game. And with Labour already having an electoral advantage built into the system I am sure that it would be possible to work out how many public sector employees in which areas of the country would be required to always win an election.

Moraymint

My training and experience in the military tell me that once the enemy is identified (and the Labour Party are, indeed, the enemy of decent people in this country) then they must be destroyed totally.

Seriously, the best outcome of the General Election would be the annihilation of the Labour Party; they are an utter disgrace.

Roy Smith

If any sense at all is to be registered by the public this figure is far too high.

Ian Walker

AS the excellent Anthony Wells points out, this would need the Conservatives to have a polling lead of around 28 points, about double what it is at the moment.

Probably a bit of a rogue poll. I fully expect Labour to end up with less than 200 seats, but there is a critical mass of hard-core "remember Thatcher" supporters that won't go away.

Moraymint

Percy

I know what you mean about Hannan. I like his politics, but he does come over as some sort of cross between high camp and a dandy.

I fear too that Hannan may be rather too well read for the lumpenproletariat with his use of long words (like "marmalade"), a sprinkling of latin and Shakespearean quotes - all this could have the man on the street reaching for the UFO Emergency Hotline.

teledu

Is that 80% of immigrants vote Labour, or 80% of those immigrants that bother to vote vote Labour ? Is this immigrants who arrived here since 1997

MikeF

I overhead a Labour canvasser on a doorstep over the week-end (what were they canvassing about I wonder) saying to the person on the doorstep: "But that doesn't mean you are a Conservative." Now that sounds like a pretty desperate, last-gasp ploy to me. Hopefully Labour canvassers are saying the same sort of thing all over the country - or soon will be - and will sound just as unconvincing.

logdon

Moraymint
November 9th, 2009 8:00pm

High camp dandy? Sounds exactly like Anthony Linton Blair but they loved him.

For a while, at least.

Now we've got Poove McSporran who probably would know one end of a woman from the other.

I certainly wouldn't buy a used turkey baster from him.

Justicia

Its almost certain that the next GE's polling will be on issues, or at the least voters' feeling on issues, that are yet to develop. That said, a Labour collapse is quite possible, and this kind of speculating adds to that.

I would say that a plurality, if not the majority, of voters do not vote for their first-choice party, even if credible (Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, PC, SNP, UKIP) simply because they see no chance of them gaining enough seats to be relevant. If there is a public perception that the Labour vote will collapse, it will snowball. As a LibDem supporter I can only see this as good news.

As for the comment about lack of scrutiny, I find it quite laughable; by this regime's standards, it is the press, commentariat and self-incrimination of this current government that has seen it lose public confidence, not the campaigning of the Tories which, as polls still indicate, is received tepidly by a majority of voters.

Nicholas

Fergus Pickering - be still my beating heart. No Labour, 20 years of Tories, an Anglosphere, no BBC and out of the EU.

Where's me tin-foil hat I'm dribbling again . . .

bigbob

A destroyed labour party? The rats will only just move onto the tories or libdems.

Peter From Maidstone

teledu, the 80% figure was in a Times piece rather than the Daily Mail. I went back to read it and it claimed that 'up to 80%' which means, to me, that some immigrant communities are very loyal Labour supporters while others may not be.

A quick search for poll data found an Ipsos poll in 1997 (a long time ago I know) which found that Asians intended to vote 70% for Labour. This was 20% higher than the general population. I am sure there are other more recent polls which the Times was using.

Frank P

logdon

turkey baster ... Bwaahahahahahaha.

Steady logdon; you'll get logged off. I've been castigated by email for much less 'offensive' comments. But then Clive the Complainer probably has sway with the management, and that other iron, Andrew Sullivan. Ye Gods!

Geoff Miller

Its been widely reported that should the Tories and Labour each win 35% of the vote, Labour would be returned with a working majority.

Our democracy is that flawed.

And yet no-one, not even the Tories, is outraged at that!

One of the first tasks of an incoming Tory Government should be to amend our electoral process so that the bias towards Labour is eradicated - in the interests of democracy and to save our nation.

Peter From Maidstone

Geoff Miller, I agree entirely. And not so that there is a bias towards the Conservatives either, but a bias towards democracy. Something must also be done about the MPs of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland so that they cannot vote through unpopular legislation in England.

I was reading the report in the Times yesterday which proposed increasing tuition fees in England to £7000+ while in Wales they are £1300~ and in Scotland are nil. This should not be a proposal that MPs in those other countries should be able to vote on.

Archie

I presume that the 120 seats include Scottish constituencies?

Archie

Verity: that's far too articulate for A. L. Blair. I'd like to direct you to "Dead Ringers" on YouTube. "Sweaty armpits, brooding Chancellor, etc."

gareth

Well said Nicholas!! Why would so many vote Labour? It's a mystery.