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Friday, 13th November 2009

The tactics of political insurgency

David Blackburn 5:46pm

That Labour held one of its safest seats is newsworthy either indicates how desperate the party’s predicament is or that it is a very slow news day. Anything other than a Labour win, and a substantial one at that, was unthinkable; even the resolutely fanciful SNP must have acknowledged that privately. However, this by-election raises some interesting points nonetheless.

As Alex Massie notes, the gloss has come of the hubristic SNP. Salmond’s Braveheart act about winning 20 seats and seeing Westminster “hanging from a Scottish rope” looked optimistic-to-mad when first performed; now it just looks mad.  Salmond’s tactic of simultaneously posing as ruler and insurgent has backfired: Labour can play the same game, posing as government in one constituency and opposition in another. Peter Mandelson’s constant reference to this duopoly suggests that Labour plan to fight the election in such a manner, where and when they please; and it is a tactic particularly suited to devolution’s political topography.  

I doubt that Labour can defend its Scottish hegemony in a general election exclusively on those terms, but the appropriation of Salmond’s tactics might make him alter his strategy. Will he, for example, continue down the strident road and prepare a referendum, which he’ll lose, next year? Bagehot urges Labour and the Tories to scent Salmond’s weakness and encourage him to call one – certain that it would be prove the SNP’s Culloden. Or, will Salmond be more measured and return to the days of insurgency? Glasgow North East may turn out to be much more important than it looks this evening.

Filed under: Alex Salmond (6 more articles) , Election strategy (27 more articles) , General election (45 more articles) , Labour (370 more articles) , Scotland (195 more articles) , SNP (51 more articles) , UK politics (605 more articles)

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J H Holloway

November 13th, 2009 6:52pm Report this comment

Scotland will always run back to nanny Labour when the chips are down.

In 1979 Scotland swung away from the Conservatives, even though the rest of the country swung (unevenly, admittedly) towards Maggie.

Dennis Churchill

November 13th, 2009 7:03pm Report this comment

So do you support a referendum in England asking whether we wish to remain in the Union? We could then move to a referendum on remaining in that other Union.

Dungeekin

November 13th, 2009 7:06pm Report this comment

And the Truth is, there is something very wrong with our country, isn't there?"
Friday, November 13, 2009
Dramatic? An Endorsement? None Of The Above.

So we hear that Labour have hailed their win in the Glasgow North East by-election as 'a dramatic victory' and 'an endorsement of Prime Minister Gordon Brown's policies'.

I'm sorry, were we watching the same by-election?

I can hardly see a slightly-reduced majority in a constituency that's such a Labour stronghold they could shave a monkey, stick a rosette on it and still win as a ringing endorsement.

With a turnout of 32% - the lowest in Scottish electoral history - the only thing endorsed by this result was apathy. The Returning Officer could have announced the winner of this non-contest was N O T Above of the Disinterest Party.

And dramatic? See above. Even scaremongering and the appearance of Gollum in the constituency couldn't motivate people out to vote. My morning bowel movement was more dramatic - and coincidentally has greater substance than Labour's claim to any sort of mandate from this result. They may appear to have gained some momentum - but it's only momentum in the same way that if you kick a dead dog downstairs, it'll carry on till it reaches the bottom.

59% of 32% voted Red, meaning that the Labour share of the potential vote was a staggering 19.75%, there or thereabouts. Less than 1 in 5. Hardly a landslide, despite their bouyant claims of the same. All it actually shows is that the average voter is now totally disillusioned by the whole political process - and that Labour are so desperate for some good news - ANY good news - that they'll latch onto a foregone conclusion and try to spin it into an 'against-the-odds' story to rival David and Goliath. When in fact the only similarity is Willie Bain's height.

Any signals for the impending General Election? Well, not in terms of vote share - the Conservatives doing well in Glasgow North-East is about as likely as Labour winning Richmond, Yorks. The big signal, though, is in the turnout. Politics in general is now so degraded and so detached from the average voter that they are, largely, completely disinterested. I've heard tell that some people will even go to the lengths of watching Eastenders rather than vote. If this turnout were repeated, then Mr N O T Above will have his work cut out representing an enormous number of constituencies.

What's to be done? I wish I knew. I don't believe in making voting compulsory - we have the right to vote, not the obligation - and in some ways, those who don't vote are choosing to make their own statement.

We could have a 'none of the above' tickbox - but the problem I see there is that it would make the system unworkable in a FPTP system, because you've have to re-run the election if NOTA won. So to implement NOTA, you'd need PR - which hasn't shown itself as conducive to stable Government in other countries, because of the need to form coalitions.

We need something that forces politicians of all colours to work together, that helps restore trust and that forces the implementation of good law rather than ideologically-based legislation squeezed through by Parliamentary majority. We need, I believe, a Hung Parliament.

Barbara

November 13th, 2009 7:21pm Report this comment

The Scottish will decide what they want themselves and Salamond may be able to keep few on his side, however, it all boils down to money. The English provide most of it and generously to the detriment of its own. May be many have seen the danger of independance, they won't just walk into the EU, it may take years, so, without English help they would indeed be in serious trouble. They need our money and as half are claiming benefits it would be even more terrible for their citizens for them to leave the union. I hope they don't for we are unique in these islands and its worked quite well and we have defended and worked well together. There again Labour won't really come back either, there are others who will fit that bill, they're just waiting in the sidelines.

Wilhelm

November 13th, 2009 7:28pm Report this comment

The socialist utopian slums like Glasgow with poverty of aspiration and low self esteem = Thats the liebour core vote and thats the way liebour wants to keep it.

Liebour is crowing that they got 15% of the vote in the safest liebour seat in the UK. unbelievable isnt it ? Have they got no shame ? The Scottish liebour party is a bit like the East German communist party without the laughs.

Thankfully the English voters will come to the rescue of Scotland and boot the liebour mafia out of office, Huzzah.

mac

November 13th, 2009 8:16pm Report this comment

" . . looked optimistic-to-mad when first performed. . ."
You're too polite by half DB; It was a phrase which would have sat entirely appropriately in blue-painted, cartoon Braveheart Gibson's risible script.

And doughty warrior Bain, eh? "When you win, Brain, you say your victory is a resounding endorsement of the great leader's skill, got it?"
"Er, the name's Bain, it's spelt B-a-i-n".
*Bain. Brain. So? That's a detail of no consequence to the World's saviour or we finger-on-the-pulse loyal bunkerites either. Now, remember the message".
"Oh, right, Mr Pavlov, sir, thank you, thank you. Got it. Whatever you say."

Paul Hughes

November 13th, 2009 8:52pm Report this comment

I hope Cameron doesn't soft soap them in order to preserve the union. I hope he resolves the West Lothian Question and ends the iniquity of the Barnett Formula.

If the Scots then decide that they cannot bear the fact that the English are as worthy of democratic and fiscal equality as they, I would be happy to see them vote for independence.

What is the point of union if it means an eternal chippiness and several dozen unreformed Labour MPs skewing English democracy? Give them the choice: "accept that you have to pay for your own socialist folly or get the hell out."

Sir Graphus

November 13th, 2009 9:29pm Report this comment

Are you so sure Alex Salmond would loose a referendum? He has a program of what to do with a Tory govt, and of all the Englishmen that the Scots despise, they despise toffs like Cameron the most.

There's already not enough gas for the whole of the UK. There'll soon only be enought for Scotland. That will have an electoral effect.

Kittler

November 13th, 2009 9:33pm Report this comment

Barbara, If an independent Scotland will not just walk into the EU, then logically, after the dissolution neither will England.
You seem to think Scots don't pay tax, they do, probably more than their fair share.
They drink and smoke in excess, so they must contribute more Excise, then die young and forgo benefits. Less likely to be unemployed, so less payout there also. But the clincher must be the taxes from the North Sea £250billion to date, a cool round £50,000 per head.

JONNY

November 13th, 2009 10:09pm Report this comment

Time to cut the umbilical cord.
Time to send the Bonny Scots on their Bonny way.
Time to have an English Parliament for the English.

Herbert Thornton

November 13th, 2009 11:18pm Report this comment

Considering that the Tory Party aspires to one of the two main parties, the low number of votes their candidate attracted seems, to me, to be very significant.

Conversely, the fact that the BNP is so constantly demonised by the BBC and the newspapers, the fact that their candidate came within a hair's breadth of getting as man votes as the Tory seems to me, to be equally significant.

And this still leaves open the question of whether there was a fraudulent element in the strangely high proportion of postal votes.

Fergus Pickering

November 14th, 2009 6:30am Report this comment

The Scots don't despise Englishmen like Cameron. They are afraid of them. That's why we get all this 'Here's tae us. WEha's like us' bollocks. I know.I grew up there. Big Scots boys bullying younger English boys is one of the things I remember very well. Of course you only had to engage your brain to stop being bullied. Flatter the bastards a little. Do their homework. They're not over bright as you can see from their MPs. Giving them money is always an option, though not open to me at that age. Most Scots that are any damn good leave. Most of THEM go to England, London for choice, and keen on about their native land at a safe distance. They are Irish without the charm, Welsh without the musical ability. The only Scotsman worth a damn in the last hundred years was Douglas Jardine and he had dumped the Tartan Trewth before he was weaned. There now. THAT feels better.

Geoff Miller

November 14th, 2009 7:39am Report this comment

I always wonder what mentality exists in these Labour constituencies.

They are the poorest, most benefit dependent places in the country. And yet, the party that has represented them for decades, perhaps forever, hasn't managed to make them into prosperous, safe or happy places.

Why do they keep voting for a Party that has demonstrably failed to help them?

Perhaps its the benefits that do it. Free money, free housing.

"The real destroyer of the liberties of the people is he who spreads among them bounties, donations and benefits."
Plutarch (AD 46–120)

Increased benefits, increased public sector employment, increased migration, Islamism, multiculturalism, gender/sexuality/race politics - these all tie the people to the Labour State.

Labour gives to them - they give their votes.

It's 5 minutes to midnight folks.

strapworld

November 14th, 2009 7:47am Report this comment

To those requesting a UK referendum on the Scottish question. You had better be quick!
as 'Ironies Too' points out:-

The dissolution of England

The following is from a House of Commons Library Standard Note (Number SN/IA/4894 ) briefing note:

2.4
The Arc Manche/Transmanche Region
According to Noakes the EU regional divisions across national borders mean that people living in Kent and East Sussex will no longer be part of the UK but will join the Transmanche region. This region will include parts of Northern France, the North Sea region including eastern England and parts of Scandinavia, Germany and the Low Countries.

Western Britain and Ireland would be in the Atlantic region and include parts of France, Spain and Portugal.

Noakes elaborates:
Counties along England’s south coast form the “Manche Region” along with northern France.

The “Atlantic Region” takes in western England, along with Ireland, Wales and parts of Portugal, Spain, France and Scotland.

Meanwhile eastern England is part of the “North Sea Region”, which covers areas of Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands.

The UK Government is fully behind the project, even though the words “England” and “Britain” are left off official maps of each area and the Manche Region renames the English Channel “The Channel Sea”.

Each region, which will be given taxpayers’ money to promote trade links, cultural ties, transport policies and tourism, is to be run by a “managing authority” of unelected officials overseen by a director.

None will be based in the UK, Manche will be ruled by the French, Atlantic by the Portuguese and North Sea by the Danes.

The regions have legal status and Manche has a budget of £261 million between 2007 and 2013, Atlantic £127million and North Sea £219million.

Every project funded by a region must have a publicity campaign which ensures “there is provision for flying the EU flag at least one week every year”
.
Britain has now become a province and its "Mother of Parliaments," a regional assembly. And that's no small humiliation for a country that gave the world English and saved Western civilization in the Battle of Britain in 1940.

The Arc Manche or Transmanche region is a voluntary network of French regions and English local authorities which border the English Channel (La Manche). Arc Manche describes itself as follows:-
Arc Manche is a flexible network of French Regions and British local authorities along the Channel. Its aims are:
- to co-operate on themes of common interest,
- to reinforce the links between both sides of the Channel.
Arc Manche involves in its aims and outputs various categories of stakeholders, bodies and local authorities of the Channel.

So, if England wants its own Parliament, it has a snowflake's chance in hell!! That is why Brown and Cameron NEVER use the word ENGLAND!

When the truth dawns, and the England sporting teams will be no more, but the Welsh, Scottish and Irish remain, then I expect the real trouble to start and god help us all!

mac

November 14th, 2009 7:53am Report this comment

Herbert Thornton: " . . . the question of whether there was a fraudulent element in the strangely high proportion of postal votes."

It's not strange.
Democracy? Every tactic is 'democratic' to ensure the "correct" candidate wins.

And as in Glenrothes, Brown and his wife are complicit in the process. This is New Labour's modus operandi. It's where their moral compass points.

There'll be lots more of this in the GE.

Michael Booth

November 14th, 2009 9:29am Report this comment

English referendum on whether we want to remain within the Union, anyone?

denis cooper

November 14th, 2009 10:17am Report this comment

@ Barbara

In fact nobody knows whether England subsidises Scotland or vice versa, when everything is taken into account. It is known that south east England subsidises other parts of England, and Wales and Northern Ireland.

It seems that none of the main parties has any workable plan directed towards equalisation of economic development, employment and unemployment levels, income levels and the degree of public sector involvement across the UK.

Before 1997 Labour made much of the "north-south divide", but in office it has pursued policies which if anything have made it worse.

@ JONNY

I'm utterly disgusted that some Tories want to break up the United Kingdom simply because the people living in one part of it have stopped voting for their candidates - that must be the ultimate exemplification of the "party before country" philosophy which has degraded our democratic system.

Maybe those Tories would also like to dump parts of England where the people won't vote for their rotten useless party.

JONNY

November 14th, 2009 11:59am Report this comment

'I'm utterly disgusted that some Tories want to break up the United Kingdom '

Well you'll just have to swallow this digust of yours Denis Cooper.
Because at the moment the Scots run their own affairs. And then they run (or rather totally balls up) our English affairs too.

You may be wallowing like a pig in clover at this absurdity. But some of us are going to hoist the jolly old Cross of St George.
And boot'em back over The Border.
If the Scots can have a referendum on the Union - why the bloody hell not us??

John Bowman

November 14th, 2009 1:03pm Report this comment

Pro-Unionists: please give three benefits to England in return for the rent paid to Scotland.

Chris

November 14th, 2009 2:20pm Report this comment

John Bowman

1. Trident bases.
2. English people like me can move from the hell of London to the comparative paradise of the Northern Isles (comparative because they're a Libdem stronghold, and full of Greens, Lefties and other drones, but still far better.)
3. The Trident bases annoy the Greens, Lefties and other drones.

denis cooper

November 14th, 2009 2:30pm Report this comment

John Bowman, what "rent paid to Scotland"?

I repeat - "In fact nobody knows whether England subsidises Scotland or vice versa, when everything is taken into account."

You want three benefits to England, so here are three very basic interconnected benefits:

1. The 82% of MPs who are elected in England effectively control not just England, but the whole of the island of Great Britain (as well as Northern Ireland).

2. The English need not fear that the northernmost third of their home island - its land, its shores and territorial waters and its airspace - will fall under the control of a sovereign government which becomes, or perhaps more importantly allies itself to, a foreign enemy of England.

3. There is no need for the English to expend resources in defending a land border with Scotland against the possibility of incursions by either a Scottish army, or by the army of a foreign ally of the Scots, or more mundanely against illegal immigration.

Is that good enough for you?

denis cooper

November 14th, 2009 3:05pm Report this comment

Well, "JONNY", I'm an Englishman living in England - as anybody can easily enough confirm - and perhaps you'd like to explain why you think I "may be wallowing like a pig in clover at this absurdity".

And, "JONNY", before you start referring to "some of us" as if you yourself are English, perhaps you'd care to come out from behind your pseudonym and prove that you're also English.

Postings made under your pseudonym have been pro-EU and pro-Tory, now it's "some of us are going to hoist the jolly old Cross of St George".

For years I joined others in protesting outside meetings of the EU's South East England Regional Assembly, holding placards and handing out leaflets to warn the public, in all weathers, and when the participants - whose travel expenses were met by the taxpayer - came out for a stroll after their nice lunch - provided by the taxpayer - we would get the odd Tory councillor who would come across and say:

"Keep it up! You're doing a grand job! We're with you all the way! We're just working from the inside ..."

But never, once, did one of them think to put his hand in his wallet and offer a contribution towards OUR expenses.

An assembly which "had nothing whatsoever to do with the EU" according to the Tory councillor who was its willing chairman, the lying bastard.

I've never heard anybody refer to the English flag as "the jolly old" Cross of St George; I've heard it called "that racist rag" on occasions when I was helping to man stalls and distributing leaflets over the past decade - where were you then, and where were the - with a few honourable exceptions - gutless, two-faced, self-centred, deceitful and fundamentally unpatriotic Tories then?

Sir Graphus

November 14th, 2009 3:57pm Report this comment

There, there, Fergus. There, there. I know, I know. I was an Englishman in Aberdeen for 3 years. The Scots are a funny bunch. They have been able to create in the national imagination a mythical Scotland, which is the Utopia that would only exist if the English would go away.

I've no wish to keep the union together if they don't wish it, but they should do it with their eyes wide open. Scotland won't be Utopia without the English. It will merely be Scotland.

Furthermore, they should worry that the 2 parties vying for power are both high spending socialist ones. The lack of a strong voice for the private sectors and low taxes is a worry.

Holly ......

November 15th, 2009 3:45am Report this comment

What is it about short,ugly overweight Scottish men that the electorate up there love?
Self image & loathing I guess.

Fergus Pickering

November 15th, 2009 10:48am Report this comment

But, Sir Graphus, if they leave then it won't be a worry for me. But they won't leave. Jock Scotland will flounce out of the door, like a gay boy flouncing from his protector's flat, but he'll be back. After all, he might have to get a job else.

By the way, why has Salmond got so FAT?

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