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Wednesday, 12th March 2008

What a difference a year makes

Fraser Nelson 4:45pm

The below table shows how we will be paying the costs of Brown’s profligacy for years. In the space of a year, the picture has markedly worsened. This is gross government debt, in the Maastricht definition which ministers can’t tweak.

UK Government gross debt, tables C4 and C5 from Budget 07 & 08

  Debt, £billion Debt, %GDP
  Budget 2007 Budget 2008 Increase Budget 2007 Budget 2008
2006-07 568 574 6 43.5 43.3
2007-08 611 616 5 44.3 43.8
2008-09 644 679 35 44.4 46.1
2009-10 679 728 49 44.5 46.9
2010-11 712 771 59 44.4 47.2
2011-12 744 809 65 44.1 47.0

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TGF UKIP

March 12th, 2008 7:09pm Report this comment

Fraser, debt of £809bn scheduled for 2011/12 (and that means it will probably be higher) equates to £45,000 per household. Can you explain to me why we don't have a truly prudent and conservative political party shouting and screaming about this?

Fraser Nelson

March 12th, 2008 7:46pm Report this comment

TGF, there are 25m households now and with immigration/family breakup being what it is prob 27m by 2012 so it's more like £30k. Still staggering, tho. Like you, I think debt is no1 fact of today's budget - it will overshadow public finances for years. And it's why no government for the next decade will have much room for manouvre, unless they the guts to do a JFK-style tax cut. But as for the Tories, perhaps they'll go on this for the Sundays - the average voter cars much more about the booze hikes coming. Also, this above table is way back in the recess of the Budget. I was tipped off by Gerri Peev from The Scotsman (she of the Tucker Carlson interview fame) so hat tip to her.

TGF UKIP

March 13th, 2008 12:14am Report this comment

Thanks Fraser for the correction of the household figure. The degree of social fragmentation in recent years has obviously been much greater than I had estimated and is probably another story in itself with its own infrastucure implications. Nevertheless, my main point is that people have passed through being immune to millions, through tens and hundreds of millions, so that now billions seem relatively meaningless. The figures need to be broken down to nearer home. The point I would dearly love to hear being made is "after all that you've heard and seen of Government waste, do you think that they could save say just 2.5%, that's just £2.50 in every hundred pounds they spend? You do! Then that would pay for a 5p cut in income tax."

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