Saturday 21 November 2009

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Monday, 16th November 2009

Going broke and going for broke

James Forsyth 1:28pm

The Times has a fascinating story on how Labour’s lack of cash is forcing it to give up on seats and groups of voters. The paper reports that seats with a majority of less than 3,000 have been effectively written off. So even before the campaign has begun, Labour is basically forfeiting 60 seats. By contrast, the Tory marginal seat operation — funded by Lord Ashcroft’s cash — is pushing further and further up the Tory list of target seats. (I was talking to one Tory candidate recently who thought that the resources poured into her seat — currently held by Labour — in the last 18 months or so had made it an almost certain gain for the party, barring disaster during the campaign).

This disparity in resources between Labour and the Conservatives could be one of the key themes of the coming months. The Tories will be keen to make as much progress as possible before the election spending limits kick in.

Filed under: Conservatives (293 more articles) , General election (45 more articles) , Labour (371 more articles) , UK politics (607 more articles)

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Mike Brighton

November 16th, 2009 1:42pm Report this comment

This is parhaps the key reason why Brown whould go early to stop the Tories outspending him. But it's far, far too late. Game over, Labour snoozed and they lose. Badly
A friend of mine standing of an inner London seat, who in a million years you would have thought would stand no chance against a well know Labout incombent, has been told by central office that they expect him to win!

Holly ......

November 16th, 2009 2:04pm Report this comment

Oh them nasty Tories!
Being funded by a rich bloke.
What is the point of this story?
a.That Labour has lost the support of it's funder's?
b. That the Tories are funded by someone with money?
c.We can decide?
It really makes no difference to the outcome
The electorate are so sick of the government
it could be the other way around and Labour would STILL lose in the places where they are going to lose.
After thirteen years we WILL judge Labour on their achievements...and it's not looking too promising.
Try all you might,the British no longer have a problem with people who have worked for their money. You are convoluting them with the greedy, rubbish bankers,who deserve nothing but a jail term or bad luck for the rest of their lives. Or maybe with the greedy politicians who believe they have a right to use state funds for their own personal gain?
Even the Halliwells knew that is a no no.
Next story please....nothing to see here.
Maybe one about how racist the BNP are?
Cynical eh? Wonder why.

Hawkeye

November 16th, 2009 2:04pm Report this comment

If Brown forfeits 60 seats then the tories only need a few dozen seats to pass labour.

Brown's even stupider than I thought!

Steph

November 16th, 2009 2:16pm Report this comment

But it will be interesting to see, when the ashcroft money has to stop because the election spending limits kick in, whether the party takes an initial hit in the polls.

A loss of 2-3% in the marginals because the rules put controls on spending, could be significant.

oldtimer

November 16th, 2009 2:17pm Report this comment

@ Mike Brighton
Standing against Harriet Harman, I trust.

Boo

November 16th, 2009 2:18pm Report this comment

So labour are going to loose a lot of seats because they have run out of money.
Hmm this story sounds familiar

Mike Brighton

November 16th, 2009 2:33pm Report this comment

oldtimer. Sadly not Harperson! Can't say tho as I don't want Liebour to get Tory intelligence...

john miller

November 16th, 2009 3:01pm Report this comment

Of course, the delicious irony of all this is that elsewhere in the Times you will read of aggressive new New New Labour election promises. All made without the faintest possibility that they can ever be funded. Yet they are apparently lauded by the Times as being a Good Thing.

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, with donations running, at most, to £1 million p.a., Labour has to give up on 60 marginals. Labour MPs demand more cash! Err, you haven't got any, chaps. You already cream off councillors expenses - the socialist economy, use someone else's money - but it's not enough.

When will it dawn on these towering intellectuals that their Party has been run on exactly the same lines as the economy. And therefore it is in deep, deep doo-doo.

Vulture

November 16th, 2009 4:14pm Report this comment

As the election approaches, Liebour will start to get desperate - and will direct a blowtorch of attention on Lord Ashcroft. Vital, therefore that he and Dave put their heads together to sort out whether he pays his taxes in the UK, or that other banana republic that he owns. (This question has been kicking around unanswered for years). He's probably got more cash in his loose change than Liebour have in their entire election war chest.

Holly ......

November 16th, 2009 4:28pm Report this comment

Steph,
Do you believe that people know who funds who, before deciding how to vote?
Please give them a bit more credit than that.
They look at their life, the country, the future and decide whether they think the government in office has done a good job for the country as a whole.
So it really does make no difference to the outcome.
Will Tory voters vote against Tories because
Ashcrofts funding has ended?
Will Labour voters that have decided to vote Tory, now not vote Tory because of lack of funding?
These stories are 'feelers', to guage our reaction.
Stop swallowing them hook, line & sinker.
IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE!
It makes no difference to the local
supermarket worker,car plant worker,ex Woolies worker or anyone struggling to make ends meet.
The media have made themselves look silly by backing Labour/Brown for the last few years, why would they change now?
Do we now trust and believe Brown and the media? No we don't.
Well I don't anyway and I can not be the only person in the country of millions that thinks neither can be trusted or believed.
Is there an election looming?

Chris lancashire

November 16th, 2009 4:42pm Report this comment

It is unsurprising that having bankrupted the country they have done the same to their own party.

Prodicus

November 16th, 2009 5:15pm Report this comment

When Labour start with their 'Lord Marginals' whingeing, they should be reminded that Lord Sainsbury's donations to Labour could buy up Ashcroft lock, stock and barrel. Just because the former Labour minister Lord Grocer has decided to keep his hand on his halfpenny this time around, the Tories need give no quarter on donations.

Admittedly, it would help if Ashcroft would come clean about you-know-what, though. If he proves to have been dommed here all along, oh how we will laugh.

SUSAN HILL

November 16th, 2009 5:51pm Report this comment

What Holly said.

TGF UKIP

November 16th, 2009 5:58pm Report this comment

Careful James, don't let your high hopes run away with you. Might be as well to remember just how soft the Tory lead is and that the polling evidence points to a current disenchantment with Labour but not to any sort of conviction commitment to Dave and his gang.

Much has already been posted on here about the adverse electoral arithmetic for the Tories and a narrowing of the polling gap (again) to sub 10% and your high hopes do begin to look wildly optimistic, especially given the prospect of third party leakage in the Tory southern marginals.

On the financing side, one thing would not surprise me is a package of pro-union legislation in the Queen's Speech. From Browns viewpoint this would not only provide another of his dividing points and ensure more union election money, it would also add to the noxious brew he is preparing for the Tories in the unlikely event that they should avoid further scandals and actually win.

Justicia

November 16th, 2009 8:05pm Report this comment

@Vulture: You're completely right.

Labour's collapse at the next election is to be welcomed, but there is a certain de-legitimising effect if it is due to the other side having near limitless amounts of funding from an individual whose tax obligations are murky and undefined. The tories need to sort out Ashcroft's position (I position, I bet that isn't a very good one given how long they've kept hush on it) or else the public-school-patrician class line that Labour savaged them with in the 1990s will come back with a vengeance.

Its sad that the next election may have a narrative that chalks a Conservative victory to disproportionate funding, however deserving Labour's demise may be.

Geoff Miller

November 17th, 2009 5:39am Report this comment

Come off it.

Labour WANTS to lose the next election.

Their nightmare scenario would be a win - they would then have all their chickens coming home to roost on their watch, they would have to make all the public sector cuts and tax increases and be accountable for unemployment, public finances, Afghanistan, Islamic terror at home, social unrest, mass immigration etc etc.

They NEED to pass the poison chalice to the Tories so that they can sit in opposition baying and whining about the "Nasty Party".

Dorothy Wilson

November 17th, 2009 10:09am Report this comment

Geoff Miller: They have already started whining about the "nasty party". Google www.thisisnottingham.co.uk. That will take you through to the Nottingham Evening Post's site. Then type Ravi Subramanian into the Search box. In addition to that article there has been a flood of letters in the Letters page from Labour [and LibDem] Councillors and activists spewing bile on the newly elected Conservative regime at County Hall.

In my edition yesterday [we seem to get some things a day later than the city edition] even the editorial was having a go at the Conservatives for promising to hold Council Tax down. Kay Cutts, the new leader of the Council, is taking the right overall decision to cut spending. However, she needs to get her media relations sorted out.

In the meantime, I've drafted a response to Mr Subramanian's nonsense though, of course, I can't guarantee that the Post will publish it.

Amadeus Plonquer

November 17th, 2009 10:52am Report this comment

This year I sent Labour a donation of a million billion pounds. Unfortunately it was lost in the post.

crowbait

November 17th, 2009 3:34pm Report this comment

With reference to the parties spending for the forthcoming election and bearing in mind the whining about Lord Ashcrofts cash. Is it not time that the Lib Dems repaid the huge sum of illegal money obtained from Spanish resident Michael Brown? After all
UKIP have been hammered. Or is there one rule for UKIP and a different one for every one else?

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