Hold your horses
Peter Hoskin 2:17pm
The blogosphere is alight with all kinds of chatter about yesterday's Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer, which showed Labour closing the gap between them and the Tories to 6 points: from James Macintyre's claim that the Labour fightback has begun to Nick Robinson's call for calm.
Myself, I'm on Team Robinson. Sure, the poll is an eye-opener for CCHQ - but, by itself, it's hardly evidence of a tidal shift in voting intentions. Indeed, going off two very useful posts by Anthony Wells and Stephan Shakespeare, there's a considerable chance that this is a rogue.
Polls will always be imperfect, but they've been particularly volatile recently. Since party conference season, we've seen the Tories achieving 17-point leads as well as this low of 6 points. As for the reason, we can only guess. Perhaps politics is in flux. Perhaps voters are still undecided on the main parties after another round of expenses scandal. Perhaps the Glasgow by-election has had some kind of effect. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps...
Either way, I'd say it's best to wait until the polls settle before drawing any substantive conclusions. If this latest poll becomes the start of a trend – only then should the Tories start to worry, and Labour start to celebrate.
P.S. UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells also dissects James Macintyre's claim that Labour's private polling has them in the lead. Well worth reading along with his masterful post on private polls from a couple of weeks ago.
Previous
Marbury
November 23rd, 2009 2:22pm Report this commentI'm sure there will be sceptical smiles at CCHQ today, or something!
JONNY
November 23rd, 2009 2:32pm Report this commentAlso today's PB raises the dread prospect that the Labour Bonus Handicap mightn't be 10 points after all (as so widely assumed).
But something much much lower, who knows - maybe as low as 2.
Or even non-existent.
Now there's a nightmare to force-feed the bulging bags under Brown's eyes.
But how unfair my friends!
How very non-cricket!
strapworld
November 23rd, 2009 2:37pm Report this commentThe people have not been taken in by Cameron. As one commentator stated yesterday hardly anyone can name any of his shadow cabinet.
Just look at the nonentities they put up for the Question Time and Any Questions programmes. Watch Grayling and ask yourself Does he inspire you? He certainly is not a chap I would want to follow!
It is time for Hague and Fox to appear on these programmes. Certainly not the fromer Communist Pickles- who obviously considers himself a great communicator but is a disaster.
Maude should be given a free transfer to Ukip.David Davis should be asked to speak as well.
I bet there a great many members of the Conservative Party are wishing David Davis was the leader, instead of this PR man who will use our brave dead for a photo opportunity!
Billericay Dave
November 23rd, 2009 2:41pm Report this commentI think more should be read into why the poll was released over a week after it was taken and that another poll on the same day showed a tory lead of 13%
Survey End Date CON LAB LDEM
Ipsos/Observer2009-11-15, 37 31 17
ICM/Guardian 2009-11-15, 42 29 19
SUSAN HILL
November 23rd, 2009 2:42pm Report this commentIt's the Eton Factor. His worst handicap.
JONNY
November 23rd, 2009 2:44pm Report this comment'It is time for Hague and Fox to appear'
General Zod
November 23rd, 2009 2:45pm Report this commentAnd how many of the actual cabinet can most people name or recognise?
Macintrye is a fantastist as his Obama "Gee, what a lightweight" story demonstrated, so he is simply unworthy of attention.
Nicholas
November 23rd, 2009 2:45pm Report this commentThe response to this poll shows just how entrenched the communist establishment is in Britain. The reaction is almost triumphant but the truth is, of course, much more sobering.
New Labour at any price for you stupid lefties, eh? The worst government in British history and a government which has cynically betrayed every single true British Labour value but what the hay! Better that than the Tories, eh?
Idiots.
JONNY
November 23rd, 2009 2:49pm Report this comment'It is time for Hague and Fox to appear'
He has strapworld. He has.
Didn't you see him all over the shop last week as Tory apologist supreme for the Referendum climbdown?
He really bombed out good at that the Yorkshire Laddy.
Vulture
November 23rd, 2009 2:59pm Report this comment@Strapworld: The tragedy for us true Tories is that Deadhead Davis would have been as much of a disaster, if not more so than Dopey Dave. His utter lack of judgement and his vanity - displayed in his inspired choice of that crook Conway to head his leadership campaign, as in his hissy-fit resignation and ridiculous re-election - show what a disaster as leader he would have been. A good back story and a broken nose can carry you so far in British
politics, but no further. The member for Al Quaeda East, whose main political message has been to speak up for the civil rights of those who would blow us to shreds, is, politically speaking, an idiot.
The only thing for us to do is, as Churchill said, is to keep buggering on and hope and pray for better times. At the moment the future is Dopey Dave and thus is very dark.
Hawkeye
November 23rd, 2009 3:07pm Report this commentApparently this poll's headline figure was based on a sample of 449 adults instead of the usual 1000 or so. This more than doubles the margin of error from 2.5% to 5%.
When combined with MORI's normal erraticism and the fact that a similar poll made at the same time shows such a difference, the chances of this being a rogue poll look very high.
Still, on the bright side, The Observer paid for it and they will like the numbers and in Brown's Bunker it will hopefully be believed and cement him firmly in place until he medically retires the day before the election.
john
November 23rd, 2009 3:10pm Report this commentI've never seen such hysteria over a single opinion poll - from all sides. Labour have gone from being wiped out to forming a minority govt in a matter of weeks, the Tories near despondency.
Ludicrous - just shows how something in isolation can totally exaggertae a position.
The sample in the poll was 449 people.
oldtimer
November 23rd, 2009 3:32pm Report this commentAccording to those that put their money where their mouths are (the betting fraternity over at political betting.com) it has not made much difference to the spread betting markets. The small sample size coupled with some odd looking regional results (especially London) suggests caution and wait and see until more polling evidence emerges.
TrevorsDen
November 23rd, 2009 3:53pm Report this commentJudging from some of these comments its clear the govt are secretly putting something in the water.
Maybe Jack D Ripper was right after all. I am sticking to pure grain alcohol from now on, Mandrake.
Publius
November 23rd, 2009 3:56pm Report this comment@Nicholas
Agreed. Politics reduced to the baying of the football mob, and reality conflated with soap opera.
I must say too that the fuss over this silly poll really is pathetic. Hothouse at its worst.
Andy Hopkins
November 23rd, 2009 4:01pm Report this commentI would imagine that the real aim behind the poll was to generate hope for the Labour activists that have all lost heart and given up the ghost. It has nothing to do with reality, but an attempt to give CPR to the Labour party grass roots...........
Draughtsman
November 23rd, 2009 4:06pm Report this commentIf the Tory lead is declining now then it may have more to do with Mr Cameron appearing to go back on his 'cast iron' guarantee of a referundum on the Lisbon constitreaty than anything else. Yes, we all understand the reasoning behind that decision, but in the eyes of many it makes Cameron look about as trustworthy as Blair; Brown; and Miliband who were quite happy to tell barefaced lies about it.
Ordinary decent people accept most things in life, but lying and hypocrisy on the grand scale as practiced by the unprincipled rabble who pass for politicians these days is something that really sticks in the craw.
strapworld
November 23rd, 2009 4:21pm Report this commentVulture. It is a tragedy. I agree!
Jonny. Didn't see him. I live in the principality and we only get rugby and news from the valley!
BUT. Vulture, why should we have to suffer another few years of Blair Mark 2? He will be a disaster.
I think Boris should be brought back by popular demand. At least we shall have a good laugh, as opposed to more years of tears.
Alex
November 23rd, 2009 4:24pm Report this commentInteresting facts Hawkeye ... a small poll sample, paid for by a left paper - and the blogsphere goes crazy.
Sometimes the opinion on the street counts for a lot .... a few years ago many people I knew voted Labour/abstained. Now lots of the same people are very keen to vote; none of them are voting Labour though.
Whilst lots of bloggers are keen to peddle straplines like 'Cameron does has not capture anyones imagination' ... how comes the polls are very positive for the Conservatives when there has been a lot of Cameron on in the MSM/on TV. (its not the same for Brown)
Anonymous Tory
November 23rd, 2009 4:47pm Report this commentIn the long run I hope we'll see Dan Hannan leading the Tories. David Cameron is a nice enough guy - but he's not Conservative enough for my liking.
RMH
November 23rd, 2009 4:51pm Report this commentI wish we had a 538.com over here than did the same tracking stuff
TrevorsDen
November 23rd, 2009 5:40pm Report this commentDeary me today, Draughtsman!
Cameron has not broken any promises. How can we have a referendum when we and the EU have ratified the treaty. Cameron was quite specific in his Sun article.
BTW the 'representative sample ' in this poll was a huge 450 people.
I can only assume that statisticians from Hadley CRU are responsible for Labours private polling.
Watt Tyler
November 23rd, 2009 5:52pm Report this commentWhat Nicholas says is true. The communist establishment is entrenched, and they control the expectations and opinions of the people by presentation and pressure through political correctness.
The only way this is going to go away is when everything goes wrong in the name of Socialism. Another term for Labour is what is required.
Holly ......
November 23rd, 2009 6:08pm Report this commentThe only thing to do is TAKE NO NOTICE.
Labour are trying plan Z.....Anyone but the Tories. The MSM as usual go along for the ride.Cameron is NOT helping by being too scared to rock the boat.
Get the dumb public to think up is down & visa versa and they won't know who to vote for come the election.
So far 10/10 it is working a treat.
JONNY
November 23rd, 2009 6:10pm Report this commentWhen is the next bloody poll due?
anyone know?
Publius
November 23rd, 2009 6:45pm Report this comment"How can we have a referendum when we and the EU have ratified the treaty?"
-- Oh no, not this old chestnut again. The answer is we can easily have one, on whatever subject we like.
JONNY
November 23rd, 2009 6:51pm Report this commentAsk a stupid question, get an instant answer.
Thankee very much Angus Reid - 17 point Tory lead bang on the button.
Billericay Dave
November 23rd, 2009 8:23pm Report this commentIm in shock new poll out showning 17% tory lead and not a peep out of the BBC or SKY is it just me or am I missing something !
Cogito Ergosum
November 23rd, 2009 9:26pm Report this commentPerhaps, perhaps, perhaps...
The biggest perhaps is the statistical variation from one poll to another. This is well known to scientists but not to PPE graduates or most journalists.
Dennis Churchill
November 23rd, 2009 9:57pm Report this commentOver at Political Betting
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/
there is an interesting poll
CON 39%(38)
LAB 22%(25 24)
LD 21%(20)
OTHERS 18% (18)
“Others” seem rather high.
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