A poll taken at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori poll had the Tories 14 points ahead

Roger Daley

It is gonna be dirty tricks all the way to the GE next year, Brown will be dragged out of No.10 holding on to the railings
saying "It's the right thing to do" and other inane slogans.

Alexandrovich

Stone me! Thanks for all the figures James, I'm hanging on every number but trying not to disappear up my own digital fundament.
And is there really "...a certain grassroots disilusionment with Cameron post Lisbon"? Again, stone me!

TrevorsDen

On balance the War of Jennifer's Ear was more interesting than these Poll speculations.

My theory for what it is worth is that polls (ergo the electorate?) are struggling to wade through the confusion following the expenses shambles.

David Phipps

The one thing that should worry the main parties is the percentage for 'Others' - at 18 per cent, an increase.

The details should be interesting, when PB publish them.

One aspect which does not seem to have surfaced on blogs, your comments/posts, or the MSM, is the campaign being run by the Albion Alliance asking candidates at the next General election to sign up to putting country before party and to promise to get a referendum which the country wants and which the three main parties are denying the electorate.

One has to wonder whether this point might be one of the reasons for the increase in 'Others'?

The Huntsman

"Combine that with a certain grassroots disilusionment with Cameron post Lisbon and you have a potential problem."

That, I suggest, is something of the understatement of the year. Many activists, members and, dare one say it, Tory PPCs will be deeply unhappy at Cameron & Hague's cowardly surrender on Lisbon.

Their mood will not have been improved by this exchange on Andrew marr's programme:

"DC: I'm disappointed. I wanted us to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. AM: You could promise a referendum on the principle of Europe now. DC: What I cannot do is a referendum on Lisbon Treaty because it is now part of the European Law, so if you had one it would either be a pointless tilting at Europe or it would effectively be an IN/OUT referendum. Now I think we should be in the EU fighting for the sort of Europe we want. We want a Europe of trade and co-operation, not a superstate, so I do not want an IN/OUT referendum because I do not think 'OUT' is in Britain's interest."

There you have it: arrogant member of the ruling political class telling us that because HE thinks the UK should be in the EU, here is never going to risk a referendum on the EU in case we decide that WE are right and he is wrong.

Or, to put it another way: Top Tory to The Little People: "Bugger off and mind your own business".

Aux armes citoyens! Vive la revolution!

Tyndale

whistling in the dark, eh? I think Rod's got it right and Dave is on the slide

Fergus Pickering

But Tyndale, it doesn't matter what you THINK. If you WANT to hang your opinions on poll evidence then they appear to go 13 point Tory Lead, 6 point Tory lead, 17 point Tory lead. Let's go with the gut, shall we? All you say about Dave may be true (I don't think so but that's just my opinion) but are we seriously saying that the electorate will give Broon another shot? Hell, they never even gave hima first one. Now Blair, there's the thinking man's lying bastard. But Broon really is crap at it, the lying I mean. We, the great English nation, are not going to elect a lousy Scotch liar are we?

TomTom

When The Commission starts to regulate The City Cameron's sponsors will push him towards a referendum. His real constituency is very small and geographically focused. He does not lead a national party, but seemingly none f the three establishment parties can manage that.

Labour is on death row and the manner of execution will take a few other parties down too. People already feel the exactions of the banks and know their pension funds have been spent by a freewheeling elite; and revenge is in the air

Vulture

Huntsman is right : Cameron is an arrogant little p***k who thinks he knows what's best for the oiks.
And I@M with Verity on this : will you pleeeese stop printing picture of him clutching his chin and pretending to be thinking anything other than 'How can I fool enough lower-class idiots into voting me into power'?

Keith

The essential question for voters in the coming election will be to decide whom they hate the least.

EC

Alexandrovich, "Stone me! [...] Again, stone me!"

Sorry old boy, but as Rod has only recently pointed out, that punishment is usually reserved for women. You'll probably have to make do with some rough stuff followed by decapitation if that's OK.

General Zod

Van Rumpy Pumpy could make things easy for Cameron by pushing his Eurotaxes agenda. That would give the perfect pretext to say we need a referendum on a different relationship with the EU.

Dorothy Wilson

A quote from yesterday's edition of the Nottingham Evening Post:

"A recent poll for PoliticsHome.com website predicted the Conservatives would take Labour seats in Nottingham South, Gedling, Broxtowe, Sherwood, Amber Valley and Erewash.

Data produced by Experian has also revealed high level of disaffection among Labour voters in local seats."

And, of course, that explains last week's blitz in the area involving a "Cabinet Meeting" and ministers fanning out on a "let's show what Labour is doing for you" stunt.

Dorothy Wilson

"With polls it is the ones that are surprising that make waves"

Let's take another slant. Many media commentors have been feeeling slightly miffed that the Labour government they have supported - and almost worshipped - for so long is being shown to have been an almightly sham.

When a poll appears that might - just might - show that people are beginning to understand that those media types' long standing faith in NuLabour was right all along is it surprising they make such a song and dance about it?

Dennis Churchill

David Phipps
Yes, as I wrote yesterday on the Peter Hoskin’s post, 18% seems very high for the non-Main Stream Parties in the UK.
Any breakdown or does it show “you know who” gaining and therefore needs suppressing?

Irene

So you have just caught up with the other two polls taken at the same time!!!!!!!

Robert Eve

Huntsman is spot on!!

Andy Carpark

I rather like these pictures of Dave Clegg in various 'hard-nosed world statesman in-waiting' poses. To any armchair anthropoligist, their revelatory value is considerable.

JONNY

I think by now we've got the message.
The infamous Double V Formation don't think Cameron's the flavour of the month.

Now pleaase oh please can we let it rest.

simon

I do wish the commentariat would STOP reading stuff into that ludicrous poll.

It was a sample of under 500 people. How on earth can so many people read so much into such a small amount of people?

Utterly ridiculous.

TrevorsDen

Yes 'Mr Spectator', they are definitely putting something in the water.

When we have comments like Huntsman and similar you know something is up. Is it labour Trolls or UKIP Loonies?

Cameron and others have not 'surrendered to Lisbon'. In case you have not noticed that was Brown and Labour (and the Libdems)- they voted for Lisbon, they are the ones who ratified it.

Its now law - we have an EU president. Etc.

Take a look at other aspect of these polls and see how far down the agenda 'Europe' is on peoples minds. Yet the Loonies want Cameron, at a time of national financial crisis, to wast millions and face ridicule organising a referendum that will change nothing.
As such, all Labour/LibDems have to do is - well - nothing. Just tell their supporters to stay at home. What does it matter? The 'referendum' would change nothing and they could easily discredit it.

Then what? How many shots in the locker then?

We have seen one half baked fatuous dumb gesture by David Davis. So what? Spare me any more - please! But hey never mind the loonies can keep admiring their shiny prejudices - they can keep polishing the chips on their shoulders.

I want out of the EU - certainly I want out of the EU we have now, but when the train has left the station, I look at the timetable - I don't throw my ticket away.

toni

"And, of course, that explains last week's blitz in the area involving a "Cabinet Meeting" and ministers fanning out on a "let's show what Labour is doing for you" stunt."

As opposed to the planned £40 a week extra charges to be levied against the elderly and vulnerable, agreed and supported by an obviously furious, and aptly named Kay Cutts, leader of Notts. CC on the ‘East Midlands Today’ programme, aired last Sunday?

John Charlton

It still seems incredible to me that any person can consider returning a Labour Government. I suppose Labour's support comes largely from its client base on which it has squandered so much of our money to create.

Dennis Churchill

TrevorsDen
The idea of a political/social ratchet that can’t be reversed is attractive to ideologues but as with other “inevitable” outcomes has no basis in fact.
Treaties and laws are temporary rules that only last as long as they can be enforced.
We can “move on” as we are often told to, but that does not mean we can’t return.
Our membership of the European Union is to a vocal minority similar to Independence movements in colonial times, the movements were small but disproportionately influential.

Dorothy Wilson

toni: Mrs Cutts is having to take the tough decisions that the former Labour administration avoided for so long and which explain why my Council Tax has increased by over 100% since they came to power nationally.

peter

As many have said many times the only poll which matters is the one to be held next year for the General Election. Everything else is just money for the pollsters and fodder for the hacks. It is supremely boring.

Verity

I'm sick of these posey, backlit photos of Dave apparently designed to give him the appearance of gravitas.

David Camera-on. (Name pinched from a blogger on The Telegraph.)

John Richardson

Mr 'TrevorsDen',
You appear to be wrong about virtually everything on this one I'm afraid.
Goodness, even that 'train/station' analogy is 15-20 years out of date.
Do you seriously think Brown or Mandelson would dare 'tell their supporters to stay at home', on a Referendum regarding Europe.
Who is leader of the Lib. Dems. anyway ?
ho cares what he/she thinks about anything ?
Calling those, who regard this issue as important, lunatics, is not going to embarrass them anymore.
Labour voters know immigration is connected to Europe. They care.

You seem to be rather trapped in a Lab/Con party political understanding of our Country's future.
Insufficient.

Valerunner

TrevorsDen, you are 110% right and your critics haven't read your post properly.

If we have an in/out referendum while the economy is on the edge and people are in fear of losing their jobs (as in Ireland) then a Yes vote is the most likely outcome and that will be the end of it. Unlike the Irish we won't get another one.

Frank Leader

There is only one poll that counts. The General Election that will be held when GB can no longer hang on to power any longer. He didn't have the bottle to face the country about a year ago. This time he will have no choice. Yellow Belly Brown.

patrick

how much destuction of our country, our debt, crime, education, immigration, will it take for you Labour loonies to wake up. The country has been destroyed idiots.