Subscribe to The Spectator

Friday 10 February 2012

Latest issue

Buy the current issue

Jobs at Telegraph

Tuesday, 24th November 2009

Yet another poll for the mix

Peter Hoskin 1:45pm

After the Ipsos MORI hullabaloo, it's tempting to treat the YouGov/Telegraph poll on Westminster voting intentions in Scotland with extreme caution.  But, for the record, here are the headline figures, and a hefty rise for Labour:

Labour --- 39 percent (up 9 points from August)
SNP --- 24 percent (down 2)
Conservatives --- 18 percent (down 2)
Lib Dems --- 12 percent (down 6)
As this fits in with another recent poll, it's safe to say that Labour have solidified their support in Scotland during and after the Glasgow North by-election.  And there's more discouraging news for the SNP: at 29 percent, support for Scottish independence is hardly overwhelming – even if it's practically unchanged since the last poll on the issue.

Going off conversations with both Tory and Labour people, the recent deluge of polls – and the more or less divergent results – may be a good thing for both sides.  For the Tories, it steels against complacency.  Whereas, for Labour, it could help to motivate their activists.  But, then again, they would both say that, wouldn't they?

Filed under: Conservatives (2076 more articles) , General election (64 more articles) , Labour (2014 more articles) , Polls (247 more articles) , UK politics (4910 more articles)

Blogs: Martin Bright | Susan Hill | Alex Massie | Melanie Phillips | Faith Based | Cappuccino Culture

Actions: Email to a friend  |   Permalink   |   Comments (42) | Subscribe

Post this entry to:   del.icio.us | Digg | Newsvine | NowPublic | Reddit

Comments Post comment

Ben

November 24th, 2009 1:56pm Report this comment

The Scots obviously know where their bread is buttered. There is nothing for the Tories in Scotland. This poll would hardly affect the Tories overall majority in the UK.

Stepney

November 24th, 2009 2:00pm Report this comment

What on earth have the Lib Dems done north of the border in the last few weeks to see a 50% wipeout of their support?

Have they threatened to remove the Barnett formula? To ban Irn Bru? To make vegetables mandatory?

If this poll is correct then Ming Campbell is my butler's daughter.

The noo.

Andy Carpark

November 24th, 2009 2:02pm Report this comment

With an employment rate of 75% and 40% of those that work at all working in the public sector, I'm surprised that Labour support is that low. England should cut it loose as the Czech Republic cut loose Slovakia.

Fergus Pickering

November 24th, 2009 2:03pm Report this comment

Scotland is a Labour client state. What would you expect? As long as England has the money...

Sir Graphus

November 24th, 2009 2:07pm Report this comment

Votes in Scotland, with their smaller constituencies, are worth more than English suburban votes. The West Lothian crisis could be upon us.

Sad, though, that having been successively misgoverned by Labour, then the SNP, the Scots still won’t consider voting Tory. Having lived there during the 90s, I fully understand this. However, it’s sad for Scotland that they don’t have a strong voice for small govt, low taxes, and the private sector.

Cjamesk

November 24th, 2009 2:07pm Report this comment

Well said Andy.
Time to cut the cord methinks.

Watt Tyler

November 24th, 2009 2:09pm Report this comment

A fantastic case for English independence!

Wilhelm

November 24th, 2009 2:16pm Report this comment

This poll is irrelevant, the liebour voter in Scotland, too be more exact Glasgow is brain dead and brain washed '' My dad voted liebour so I will vote liebour'' they have an unthinking mentality.

Stick a chimp up with a liebour badge on and he'll win. Willie Bain winner of Glasgow North East who looks like the Pillsbury dough boy, google it. proves my point.

Scotland wasnt like this in the 1950s, the tories got 51% share of the vote but sadly liebour in the 60s and 70s have hijacked the country.

30% want independence '' hardly overwhelming '' I dont think so Peter, thats a third of the nation. In the 1950s when we had the British Empire, remember that ? it was 2%. Give it time. The SNP government is calling the shots now, not the liebour Glasgow mafia.

JONNY

November 24th, 2009 2:17pm Report this comment

That's good. Very good.
The latest over-hyped-to-utter-boredom Brown Bounce is sited exclusively in Bonnie Scotland.
Leaving the rest of us to give him the order of the boot.

AndyinBrum

November 24th, 2009 2:23pm Report this comment

As im a simple chap, could someone provide me with the average for all the polls? Would that not give the best idea/guess on what the consensus is

Nicholas

November 24th, 2009 2:26pm Report this comment

Something fishy about these polls - as though their release and the way they are being reported is part of the New Labour strategy to "talk up" their popularity. Someone is at work behind the scenes playing a very devious game. We have a truly scary one party state in the making and I don't like it.

Vulture

November 24th, 2009 2:33pm Report this comment

Andy Carpark is quite right: the Scots are inextricably wedded to sucking the Welfare tit along with their whisky. They are a bottomless pit for any fool ready to chuck bawbies into and the few enterprising ones all emigrate to England. Roll on independence and let their beloved EU pay the future bills. Without them we'd never have another Liebour Government.

Frank P

November 24th, 2009 2:52pm Report this comment

Nicholas

This Ministry of dis-Information is at Old Queen's Street.

Joe Middleton

November 24th, 2009 2:57pm Report this comment

Given the dismal nasty anti Scottish remarks on this story and indeed on any story which mentions Scotland it is no wonder that most sensible Scots support independence. The English have swallowed their own rubbish whole about England subsidising Scotland but the actual facts do not back it up.

Mr. Green

November 24th, 2009 3:20pm Report this comment

I wouldn't worry too much Nicholas. That latest poll relates to Scotland's voting intentions and as we all know Scotland would rather vote for a box of used matches then vote for a Conservative MP.

Labour Idiot

November 24th, 2009 3:35pm Report this comment

We can still win. The Tories just manipulate the polling. They are out for themselves and their rich friends as always.

bert

November 24th, 2009 3:39pm Report this comment

well, looks like the scots love Brown, and the english and welsh mostly hate his guts.

this poll has no real relevance to a GE - rather pointless exercise.

Wily Trout

November 24th, 2009 3:42pm Report this comment

We should all move there en mass in our dotage and take advantage of the free carehome provision. And then vote Tory just to annoy them.

Boudicca

November 24th, 2009 3:53pm Report this comment

This might reflect the fact that al=Megrahi is still alive, just over 3 months after being released.

If he faces his maker in the very near future, the SNP might recover a bit.

TrevorsDen

November 24th, 2009 3:59pm Report this comment

No support for independence and labour showing no change fro a weak position in 2005 and yet still people call for an 'independent England' - like I maintain, UKIP is an English Nationalist party.

Scotland BTW has 59 seats, broadly in line with its population. Given the Scottish parliament you could of course argue it should have even fewer.

Bob

November 24th, 2009 4:02pm Report this comment

Don't forget that Liebore actually has it's own media in Scotland, with the like of BBC Scotland, Daily Record and the laughably named The Scotsman.

The impartial BBC Scotland had to issue a personal apology just last week to a SNP Minister regarding one broadcast of theirs.

The pro-Liebore and anti-SNP bashing over the last month was strong and will increase in the run up to the election. This is all in order to keep the Union.

Andre

November 24th, 2009 4:18pm Report this comment

This divergence in party politics more than ever spells the end of the union. The English cannot secure the Tory government they clearly want whilst the Scots return predominantly Labour members - and SNP apparently even more Marxist. Lets do a Vaclav Klaus...

David Ossitt

November 24th, 2009 4:25pm Report this comment

Andy Carpark
“With an employment rate of 75% and 40% of those that work at all working in the public sector, I'm surprised that Labour support is that low. England should cut it loose as the Czech Republic cut loose Slovakia”
I totally agree; but why stop with the Scots, make a clean sweep and get rid of Northern Ireland and the Welsh while we are at it.

Moraymint

November 24th, 2009 4:32pm Report this comment

Fergus Pickering

"Scotland is a Labour client state. What would you expect? As long as England has the money ..."

Whenever I'm driving with my family over the Forth Road Bridge (quite often) I insist that we all give three cheers for the good people of Buckinghamshire ... who now pay the bridge tolls for us (very kind).

Vote SNP (or Labour, I imagine) and have somebody else fund your way of life. Aaaah ... socialism in action.

How much longer can it go on though? It's my understanding that we've now, er, run out of (somebody else's) cash. What a great political ideology ... for as long as it lasts, that is.

Hello! Hello! Anybody out there know how to create wealth, make profits and pay taxes ... to keep the socialists' wheels on?

Snowman

November 24th, 2009 5:05pm Report this comment

aren’t there any people down south of the land of haggis and scotch who don’t get their bread buttered by the caring Ms Society, hmmm

it all hinges on what one reckons that accounts for the decisive bit fueling the masses’ voting intentions: the expenses scandal? Afghanistan? immigration? the EU? ….. whichever of these one plumps for one’s hard put to see more than a Rizla thin difference between the two. On one issue, and also the one so dear to anyone who struggles to make ends meet, the gap has widened. Brown want to cut less, and cut later, and hit the rich, most of all the bankers, the very people that furnished the cash he so carelessly fritted away. It has some appeal, admit it. Cameron, on the other hand, goes for the honest politician, the one who tells it as it is. Cut early, and cut deep. Wrong choice.

If nuLabour manages to keep this gap going, stresses it, and possibly enlarges at least the perception that it’s there, they’ll have more than average chance of pulling it. What they'll do after the polling day is an entirely different matter.

strapworld

November 24th, 2009 5:17pm Report this comment

It was not long ago when opion polls were so inaccurate.I think we are back in that scenario.

People are either telling porkies, or the pollsters are 'adjusting' their figures.

Now Is anyone here used for Opinion Polls. I am used by YouGov but Never-strangely- for political surveys. Could it be because I am right wing in my views?

Does anyone know anyone who is asked for their political opinions by Mori, YouGov, Ipcos or any?

I just wonder, at times, if they ever contact anyone and come up with figures that do not bear any relation to what I am hearing people say!

I noticed that Guido Fawkes had a real go at our respected editor today! for being sucked in to the Blair for President nonsense.

Still nothing on immigration from the editor. His promises have become as 'cast iron' as that other charlatan David Cameron.

J H Holloway

November 24th, 2009 5:31pm Report this comment

Running back to Nanny....

Can anyone find the figures for the 1979 election? They'll show a swing back to Labour, when England was swing to the Tories.

A repeat performance from the People's Republic

Marcher Baron

November 24th, 2009 6:29pm Report this comment

To paraphrase what Dowding said about the Battle of Britain attrition rate figures, if the polls are right, Brown will be back in Downing Street come June. On the other hand, we the voters might have different ideas.

Nicholas

November 24th, 2009 8:05pm Report this comment

strapworld I have the same experience of YouGov as you. Never invited to participate in political surveys since they established I was right wing. I wouldn't trust them to toss a coin, specially after seeing who their gaffer's missus is.

AndyinBrum

November 24th, 2009 10:55pm Report this comment

for what its worth, the Beeb has this poll tracker - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm which appears to show the Tories are well in front on all counts. Have I missed something?

jon ryan

November 24th, 2009 11:41pm Report this comment

Averaging all the recent polls seems to suggest little other than most of the population rank UKIP and BNP on the same level as the Greens.

Seems about right.

Keith

November 25th, 2009 8:38am Report this comment

The land of haggis and scotch? The Slovakia option? My, in a world of external dangers and cultural invasion its good to face it all on our own with no help from our hardy cousins north of the border. We may disagree with the politics in Scotland but they have not seen their country transformed into a third world enclave.And dont forget the choice they have is either SNP [independence which Scotland does not want] or Labour.Families can disagree but still look out for each other.

Wyrdtimes

November 25th, 2009 10:10am Report this comment

Home rule for England all the way.

Lucy Jones

November 25th, 2009 10:56am Report this comment

Anyone seen the Angus Reid Strategies poll?

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/24/now-the-detail-from-last-nights-pb-poll/

This puts the Tories at 39%, Labour at 22% and LD at 21%.

JONNY

November 25th, 2009 11:13am Report this comment

Very revealing how the Lib-Dem vote has collapsed in Scotland.
The Scots don't fancy them anymore. Could it be because their Leader is now a Sassenach called Nick Clegg? (Not a fully paid-up Scotsman like Ming or Kennedy).
So what they seek is a fellow Scot to rule over us in England. And a Scottish Parliament to rule over them.
England Awake!

Keith D

November 25th, 2009 11:40am Report this comment

The Lib Dem vote has collapsed in Scotland as it is doing here. There is a great deal of shame in Scotland over Browns moral cowardice and his role in the transformation of the UK. What this poll reveals is no surprise, namely Labour has a larger core vote north of the border.See also north east and north west England. Home Rule for the home counties? I wish the Tories could transform their fortunes in Scotland but failure to do so will not affect the GE result. Glasgow will vote Labour but there is no way Scotland will return 50 Labour MPs which if my analysis is correct is what people fear. Voting intention influenced by the nationality of a party leader? Please!

Dirty Euro

November 25th, 2009 11:51am Report this comment

I hope the Scottish left encourage more scottish tories to read this blog to see the views of some of the English tories here, they can see that English tories are so nationalistic, vindictive and care so little about them that they want to be chucked away. So much for the party of the union. Just now a party of right wing extremists and liars.
It is good propaganda for the fact that tories are an anti scottish Little Englander party in the extreme.
The south gets all the government jobs in the civil service in London and then has the gall to complain about "big government".
Oh by the way if you don't want to subsidise the north, how about building the subsidy laden deadly nuclear power plants in southern england not the north.
Nuclear energy is indicitive of this con trick.
We get lumbered with the subsidy laden nuclear energy plants that we do not need, (it is the south that needs them) we then get moaned to about how the south has to subsidize us, when in fact is its over stuff we don't need that we are being lumbered with because the the southern dominated civil service are too sneaky to build them where they live.

Dirty Euro

November 25th, 2009 12:00pm Report this comment

How can any scottish tory want to be part of a party that hates scotland. The nationalism of the English tory party is anti celtic nations too, as well as anti european. It is a xenophobic nationalistic racist little englander party that is moving further and further to the right. Why on earth would anyone vote conservative after reading these posts to be scottish and vote tory is like being jewish and voting nazi. Or like being black and voting BNP.
Look at the way the southern civil service has decided to build 5 nuclear plants in the north of England. The energy is required buy the south. But the subsidies for this subsidy rich energy source will be blamed on the north. A typical devious trick by the south.
No wonder scotland hates the tory party.
You in the south get all the civil service jobs and then moan about how you hate big government, well how about the capital is moved north then. You are so two faced. The civil service makes decisions for you lot as they are southerners.
How about all the southerners refuse to take a job in government if you hate government employment so much. How about all the big paid jobs are moved to Scotland. After all you lot hate big government. Or is it all two faced BS.

Keith D

November 25th, 2009 12:30pm Report this comment

Dirty Euro@ The tories are a broad church and no more wish the break up of the UK than they do its wilful transformation into a third world state. A policy inflicted upon us by Nu Labour. Do you call Mr Cameron extreme? Thought not. The true extreme is the BNP of course, a party whose fortunes have been transformed due to the betrayal of the very working class Nu Lab once stood for.

Keith D

November 25th, 2009 1:33pm Report this comment

Dirty Euro , Your argument has no basis in fact and is quite frankly insulting to anyone who cares about the UK. Your all encompassing demonisation of 40% of the electorate as anti scottish is an insult. Retract.

egh

November 25th, 2009 2:12pm Report this comment

Just can't imagine who's the disinformation poster for this blog!! So subtle, you know? Divide and Conquer - what reader round here would realize anyone's playing that game against the British!!!

Keith D

November 25th, 2009 2:50pm Report this comment

Thank you egh. Am a new poster and will ignore from now on

Post comment

Back to top

Cartoons

Tag Cloud

Coffee House archive

sponsored links

Spectator recommends

Spectator classifieds

THE PRESENT FINDER

1,700 Unusual Christmas Presents Request Catalogue 01935 815 195 Quote SPEC10 for 10% discount www.presentfinder.co.uk

OLIVE BRANCH FLORISTS

Pimilco based Florist with online ordering Web: www.olivebranch.net Tel: 020 7630 1868 Fax: 020 7233 8844

RUFFS Bespoke Signet rings

62 Shore Road, Warsash, Southampton, SO31 9FT Telephone: 01489 578867 Web site: www.ruffs.co.uk