What today's polls tell us

david

Just don't believe all that marginal stuff, 32 marginals were surveyed. How? Was each marginal surveyed, if so how big was the sample. Or was it a sample of marginals and the results extrapolated. One of the questions was loaded.

The headline figures are pointing to a hung parliament thats were we are going.

J H Holloway

Good. A poll that recognises that the 'national swing' will not be any use as a yard stick for the next general election.

rob

the only thing the polls tell me is the general disillusionment of politics as a whole.

there is no real enthusiasm for any of the parties. what's really sad is that Labour see a hung parliament as cause to celebrate - I think that just about sums up the governing party of this country.

as for the tories, they seem to be making some mistakes - which, to Cameron's credit, they have pretty much avoided.

plus, Brown is getting a far, far better press these days.

none of it really matters - the only thing people are voting for is whether they favour Brown or Cameron - and I reckon that spells the end for Labour.

Robert Eve

I've always voted Tory at past General Elections going back to the mid 60s.

Why am I less keen this time?

The EU obviously.

Still a few months to finally decide but I'm in a UKIP mood today.

Duyfken

Pedantic I am, but does not the Speccie have a style guide or elementary grammar book, such that it would guide its journalists to distinguish between the verb "to lay" (transitive) and "to lie" (intransitive)?

Mr Ocelot

Well , I hope Labour, somehow, stay in power. It would be better than reality TV, where a load of celebrity wannabees strut around showing their stuff. What drama!!

We default on our debt for the first time, no more gilts. Financial disaster on a biblical scale.

Political correctness takes the next logical step to Affirmative Action policies.

Peter Mandelson becomes the camp Yellowcoat, organising welfare and games.

We lose our second war in a row, or at least lose interest. It is declared a glorious victory.

The mind boggles at the possibilities. The People's dark vicarious needs that find release every day on Xfactor and Bigbrother, would receive a tremendous boost.

Anyway my mate reckons whatever happens people will still be driving cars and the supermarkets will be full. So what does it matter?

Nicholas

Don't trust YouGov.

kein

if dave won't take europe seriously i will vote ukip.he may say he never said stuff but he let people believe he was going to do something.okay he didn't technically break his word but he denied a lot of people there aspirations on this and now you are seeing it in the polls.hung parliament (and the IMF) here we come.

terence patrick hewett

All UKIP voters will vote Tory at the Election. Except in the weasel Bercow's constituency. If they don't vote Tory they'll going to get the Quangocracy for another five years. Contemplate the damage that the Labour Party has done, and will do in the next six months. If they have five years to screw us, I suggest you head for the hills ASAP.

Roadrunner

With the latest French powergrab of the EU finance I a tory voter of 40 years am even more determined to vote UKIP.Cameron they say admires Chamberlain,so he should they are both appeasers,the Conservative party deserve someone better than him.He's going to give the EU five years to see what he can claw back.In that time the French will have destroyed London as a financial sector.

Watt Tyler

In the light of Climategate

"The Copenhagen summit is of historic importance"
David Cameron, Friday, November 27th, 2009

http://blog.conservatives.com/index.php/2009/11/27/the-copenhagen-summit-is-of-historic-importance/

I for one cannot put principles aside for any temporary convenience. The Conservatives are going to continue to propogate the myth that is AGW. They are going to support the continued shafting of British industry and private individuals for the sake of a miasma.

I for one cannot vote for the supposi-tories. I am going to vote UKIP at the next general election - hell, I am going to join the party.

woolly mammoth

Roadrunner, can you explain, please, how it will help matters if you vote UKIP and thus increase the likelihood that Labour will win the election?

Nicholas

Vote UKIP get New Labour.

Very clever.

emil

Woolly Mammoth

Have you never heard the expression "cut your nose off to spite your face" ?

Marbury

So: the Tories need to focus on issues that signal they've changed, AND on their traditional core issues...? Sounds confusing.

Sean O'Hare

Woolly mammoth. Voting UKIP may result in a hung parliament, it may not. It may let Labour back in, but in the opinion of most of us opposed to our continued membership of the EU it makes no difference whether its Brown or Cameron as head of the Westminster Council Chamber as all they will be doing is rubber stamping EU law.

Verity

Terence Patrick Hewitt ... "If they don't vote Tory they'll going to get the Quangocracy for another five years."

You didn't read that Dave is going to create EIGHT (or it may be 18, can't remember) new quangoes?

oldtimer

I think that this poll of these marginal seats is probably sound. If it was not, we should have heard about it by now from UK Polling Report and Political betting.com. But it is just one poll and there are several months to go to the election.

I think that Cameron`s position on Europe has cost him some support, though I believe that was probably the best option for him. Brown is, of course, seeking to set more traps for him such as the $10 billion fund to deal with global warming - committing money we do not have out of taxes that have yet to be raised.

Copenhagen is also a dangerous issue for the politicians because Climategate is threatening to undermine the science driving the warmists agenda. I happen to think it already has. Brown is up to his neck in this, as he both supports dodgy science from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia and dodgy economics from Lord Stern. Cameron needs to keep a careful distance. I cannot see voters and taxpayers supporting massive increases in taxation - to be distributed elsewhere - on the back of corrupted climate data, dodgy databases and suspect software. All of these horrors have been discovered by those with the knowledge to burrow into the leaked emails.

Snowman

vote Tory, get more Labour policies

even cleverer

Snowman

the country needs a government (Labour or Tory) elected on a pitiful share of the popular vote as much as it needs a pandemic of swine flu.

Holly ......

Marbury..tell me about it.Thank you!
Some on here nearly had me switch to UKIP/BNP,but I will vote as I always have.
There are a few trolls to watch out for on here....and one of them will NOT be getting an apology from me.(Remember 24-12-2009).
They helped me decide who to vote for in the end.Thanks go to them also.

Ex-Tory voter

terence patrick hewett "All UKIP voters will vote Tory at the Election." How nice to be certain! It'a a pity you're wrong. I was wary of Cameron over his (lack of) grammar schools policy and I don't like his idea of all-women short lists (select on merit, not discrimination, please), but the final nail in his coffin came with his policies on the EU. That pushed me over to UKIP and I know I'm not alone. I live in a safe Tory constituency, but even if I didn't, I still would not vote for more of the same.

NeilMc

Terence - You are wrong. Cameron is playing Tory voters for fools. He has lied over the referendum and now he is allowing the AGW myth to continue, even after Climategate. There will be a huge backlash against him from genuine Tories, witnessed by the swing in the polls.

TGF UKIP

17,14,12, 10% and still the house mag hacks try to spin it away as a winning strategy.

Lucky, lucky Labour to have such a wet, green plonker leading the poor old Stupid Party.

No matter how useless, incompetent, sleazy and plain nasty the Brown Gang are, the British quite sensibly cannot bring themselves to express any conviction in Dave and his Clique.

John Richardson

NeilMc is correct.
28th Nov. 6:01pm.

What is worse is that many tribal Con. voters know he is a fraud, they will vote for him anyway as they are cowards and fools. They hate themselves for it and so will attack those with the courage of their convictions. UKIP voters or abstainers for example.
Just imagine if the Brown/Cameron 'choice' is what we actually deserve as a Nation.
My goodness.

Verity

TGF UKIP styles Dave "a wet, green plonker", which I think is a little weak and concessionary. If I may be permitted a tiny edit, I think it would read better as "a self-regarding, greedy, overbearing, over-confident, pedestrian thinking, weak-chinned, wet green plonker".

I don't remember having read a favourable comment about Cameron, other than on this esteemed site, for around 18 months.

denis cooper

Cameron has calculated that he can become Prime Minister without any need to attract the patriotic vote, and lacking patriotism himself he doesn't even want it.

In his eyes, anyone showing any signs of either British or English patriotism is a nutter, a fruitcake, a swivel-eyed loon, probably even a racist. Remember how he instantly slapped down Liam Fox for suggesting that we should fly the British flag more widely?

And of course "sensible" people like him would never dream of leaving the EU, but in case we gave the wrong answer he would never put it to a referendum. In the event of conflict, his unpatriotic personal view must prevail over the views of the British people. How democratic is that?

Maybe Cameron will be proved right; if the economy deteriorates, support will ebb from Labour, the Tories will open up the gap, and they'll get their Commons majority even if a few million people vote for UKIP, and many others don't vote at all.

On the other hand, if the economy improves so will support for Labour, and Cameron may find that he has miscalculated. At least then if there's a hung Parliament the economic consequences won't be so bad.

If that does happen, and it leads to economic disaster, then that will be HIS fault - not the fault of UKIP, or those who vote UKIP, or those who are so disgusted that they simply decline to vote.

And please don't try to tell me that it's my patriotic duty to vote Conservative - not until Conservative members have fulfilled their patriotic duty to get themselves a patriotic leader who will pursue patriotic policies.

Their present leader reckons that he doesn't need my support; if he was a patriot he would nonetheless want it and be disappointed not to get it, and so he would work to get it; but he clearly doesn't want it, and so he won't get it.

Cameron has made his choice; the die is cast, and now events will take their course.

Neil Turner

Five reasons why another Tory voter (30 years in my case) will be voting UKIP in 2010:

- I want a vote on EU "in or out"
- I'm against AGW
- I'm not "politically correct"
- I'm against the Islamisation of Britain
- I'm for Grammar Schools

Roy Smith

David Cameron deserves to be disappointed, he can't see the wood for the trees. It should be an easy election but he is making it hard. Is he playing a Gorbachev or just plain stupid?

Nicholas

Snowman: "vote Tory, get more Labour policies - even cleverer"

But just not true. I too despair at Cameron but I'm keeping in mind that "my enemy's enemy is my friend" and "the best is the enemy of the good". I want New Labour out. That is my priority. I'll worry about Cameron and the Tories once we've seen the back of the worst and most dangerous government in this country's history.

You prefer the certainty of 5 more years of Brown and New Labour to the risk of the Tories not being what you want?

Snowman

Nicholas @ 9.56:

Tell me then, if you will, the difference between Labour and the Tories on the five issues that seem to bother people, on the blogs anyway – immigration, the EU, the AGW bandwagon, the NHS, and Afghanistan.

Verity

Nicholas: "You prefer the certainty of 5 more years of Brown and New Labour to the risk of the Tories not being what you want?"

There isn't a cat's hair of difference.

Nicholas

Snowman @ 9.56

No. You are the one proposing that their policies are identical. Therefore you tell me why there is no difference. And the absence of any demonstrable policy at all - or a desire to evade the issue completely to avoid pre-election hysteria by the Leftist suborned media - is not evidence of identicality.

In other policy areas there are plenty of differences but the main one for me, so far, is that Cameron's shadow cabinet does not contain (as far as I can see) any deranged former communists with totalitarian instincts and an agenda rooted in bringing chaos, cultural revolution and ultimately fascism to Britain. Quite the opposite.

Rhoda Klapp

Nicholas, on the five issues no party has very much to say. There seems to be a tacit agreement not to mention them, or not to have an identifiably different policy.

The rules of the game are not that we all pick a team and support it come what may like retarded football fans. The idea is that whoever presents himself as worthy to be our representative will make some promises and explain the principles whereby he will act in parliament, in a manifesto. Then he (yes, or she) will get together with like-minded MPs to form a government. So we ought to vote based on the policies in the manifesto and our degree of trust in the candidate. If Cameron has some fantasy secret agenda to put leftist pap in the manifesto and then to act as a proper conservative once in power, that's cheating, and he won't get my vote. If he believes the left-wing pap, he won't get my vote.

So, logic dictates that it is the tory manifesto which will decide. To me, it doesn't look as if there is going to be anything but pap. But we'll see, soon enough. I won't vote for that man, whom I do not entirely trust, on the basis of a non-conservative manifesto.

Anne Wotana Kaye

Do what the Polls say relly matter. This morning was thinking how Brown is the only Prime Minister (sic Dictator)m who has NEVER been elected. Mugabe was elected by his people, Hitler was voted in, even Stalin was elected after he moved into the Kremlin. Polls? A joke.

Snowman

Nicholas @ 9.41

Good point, but Verity’s @ 2.05 better.

Look, I cannot share your view that we should worry about the Tories after Dave’s in any more that I would have shared the view that we should worry about Tony when he’s in before 1997. Get my drift?

You appreciate it that only 23% of the electorate cast their votes for Labour at the last election. Almost 77 voters out of a hundred plumped for other parties, or didn’t bother to vote, yet Labour command a healthy majority in the House.

I reckon the time’s ripe for a House with a different profile. Swinging it between the Reds and the Blues doesn’t get us very far. The composition ought to reflect the divisions in the country, i.e. follow roughly the split of the popular vote. The FPTP system served its purpose, but the country no longer segments along ideological lines. Will a proportional representation be any good? Dunno, but we should have a go. It works in Germany quite well.

Man can predict everything but the future, or so the quip goes. At a risk of getting it wrong, my guess is that if the Tories get in, it will be on around the same level of popular support of Labour’s share. The unfairness of it all will remain. A Government elected on a pitiful share of the popular vote will impose its will on the majority. And it gets worse, many of those who will vote for the smaller parties (the Greens, the BNP, and the UKIP) will have no voice in the House at all, they will feel cheated, fed-up, and will most likely join the growing army of those who give up voting.

What makes you convinced that after 8-12 years of a Tory Government we will not end up where we did in 1997?

Derek Holmes

Brown will talk a good election but will fall short on delivery as he always does. With New Labour being in the shambles it is if Cameron & Co. cannot win with a comfortable majority then the electorate will have to put up with 5 more years of the egocentric rambling rhetoric of the Man from the Manse.

simon

As a lifelong Conservative, I am sorely tempted to vote labour this time purely because I would like to see what happens as the financial chickens finally come home to roost. I havemoved all my money out of the UK and so if the £ collapses I might even be better off.

Amadeus Plonquer

Dear Conservatives,

You kip if you want to. I'm voting UKIP.

Let me tell you why.

If enough of us vote for UKIP then one of three things will happen:

1. Labour will be returned. Good. We can all have a laugh at Brown cleaning up his own mess. He'll have a very slim majority and certainly won't last a year before we have to have another election.

2. The Tories will be elected. Good. Again their majority will be very slim. They'll have to take some very unpopular decisions and we'll see another election in a year.

3. There will be a hung Parliament. Good. If UKIP win some seats they'll need to be wooed. Whoever forms the government will have a very slim majority and if UKIP don't get their way we'll have another election within a year.

The scenaria, three good results for UKIP.

The 4th option of a Unity government between Labour and Tories? Don't make me puke.