The good and/or bad news for the Tories is that there hasn't been a Brown Bounce

Danko

I subscribe to the "It's good" arguement. For the reasons you have stated and more. I think that there are two dangers of high opinion polls for the Tories. The first is that you are likely to have Eurosceptics willing to vote UKIP because it wont harm the outcome of the election, if the massive leads dont exist then neither does that reassurance. The second issue is of Tory activists on the ground getting lazy as we see nice big leads come out week after week, it is not hard to believe that some people to take time off they would have otherwise spent campaigning if they think their help isnt needed. A third point, if I may, is that people are not as angry with Labour as they were earlier in the year. The closer we get to the election the more people are going to see of Labour's track record and of Labour Ministers (Balls, Cooper, Ainsworth and Co.) try to defend it, this makes people even more mad now than when Brown does something stupid. The feeling for Brown is now more one of pity, it's his Ministers, who will have to be front and Centre during the next few months, who the public cannot abide.

Verity

The Tories should be roaring ahead now. That they are not is due to the fact that there is no appetite for pinko liberal global-warming believer (remember the trip to Sweden, the parka with his weak little face peering out from under the fur, and the two A-list Huskies?) and EUSSR enthusiast David Cameron.

The Tories hemorrhage support every time he opens his weak little mouth and out trickle more vacuous little liberal "thoughts" (for want of a more accurate word).

He is either so lacking in acuity that he fell for the climate scam, or he knowingly set about endorsing a lie thinking everyone else would go along with the gag.

Christopher Bowring

You don't mention Climategate. Most Conservatives I speak to seem to be sceptics, not only with regard to the EU, but to global warming too. The Tory high command has been silent on the climate issue and seem to going along with a view which many people find difficult to believe. I'm sure the fall of the Australian opposition leader and his replacement with a climate sceptic is not going to happen here, but the the feelings of Liberal party members in Australia are widely held here among Conservatives.

Watt Tyler

Whatever. There is only one thing to be assured of and that is in this denuded country, there is always enough turkeys to vote for Christmas.

Dave B

I think it's a firming of the Labour vote. The recent YouGov marginals polling suggests it may be mostly in Labour's Scottish redoubt, so no threat to the Tories. :-)

Martyn Rowe

I think the media is driving the 'possibility of a hung parliament' narrative as much as possible, and understandably so.

But the biggest reason, in my view, why the Tories have lost support is because of Europe.

It just goes to show how many right-wing Europhobes in this country will willingly cut their noses off to spite their face and vote UKIP, potentially costing the Tories a majority.

It is ridiculous, counter-productive and plays directly into the hands of Labour... Yet? And yet.........

teledu

Perhaps the potential tory vote is diminishing because could-be voters remain to be convinced that Cameron has any balls.
They want a leader prepared to be confrontational; prepared to upset the soft, liberal politically-correct, establishment. Someone who'll call a spade a spade. Someone who'll stick up for Britain (and maybe even England!) regardless of whether it sticks in the craw of the BBC / MSM journos. We want someone with fire in their belly who'll rip the face off Brown at PMQ time. Someone
who'll tell Andrew Marr / Dimbleby etc. to keep quiet and let him tell the British what a useless, incompetent, deceitful government we've had for the last 12 years without interruption.
Someone prepared to say uncontrolled immigration and multiculturalism is wrong and that our signing-up to the Lisbon constitution was an affront to democracy and must be righted.
Somene who won't entertain the likes of Julie Kirkbride representing the party at the next election. Someone who'll support a tory candidate running against Bercow in 2010.
An awful lot of would be voters are well and truly pissed-off with Brown and Labour and want him ousted, but they want him replaced by a true leader of men and not by an Andy Pandy.

Ex-Tory voter

I think it's a combination of the EU and "blue socialism" that's putting off many traditional Tory voters. They cannot identify with the party any more. Of course, the slavish pursuit of the green agenda doesn't help. To my mind it's the Tories losing it rather than Labour winning it. I know the party finally lost my already wavering support when Dave pretended they would repatriate powers from the EU. It has never worked that way in 30 years and I can't see Dave as a magician able to work a miracle - even Mrs T only managed to get a rebate rather than truly favourable terms and the EU has tightened its grip since then. The only way is out in order to run our own lives and get ourselves on our feet again. That is why I'll be voting UKIP despite all the dire warnings about a hung Parliament. I agree with the UKIP manifesto; I can't say the same about Dave's so far announced intentions.

Glenn Otto

I think that GB has appealed to his core vote through the Queen's Speach and thanks to a relatively sucessful, targeted conference. I think the actual position is more like 41:25. He has also consolidated the Scotish socialists. This is his high point. As the events lead up to the GE the stress will be on him and his front bench- they will buckle.Just please Cameron- no slip ups

Frizby

We're just waiting for the next GE and then, never mind the "bounce", we'll torpedo Brown so far out of office he think he's astronaut!

adrian drummond

I can't speak for others but Daniel Hannan wrote that at midnight last night, the United Kingdom ceased to be a sovereign state.

I'm therefore going to vote UKIP.

Gary Williams

For the Conservatives to focus their efforts on depicting Brown & Co. as incompetent and out of their depth would be wasted effort. That view is shared by a huge swathe of voters.
Within that huge swathe, many are not irreversibly persuaded that Cameron and the Conservatives would be better. Those people may judge their government by moral criteria or by practical ones.
The conservatives will do best not by repeating the obvious - that Labour are uninspiring and ineffective - but rather by explaining their moral framework, their aims, and how they would get Britain out of where it is and closer to where it ought to be.

To C Bowring, with respect: Amongst the three major parties, I doubt that there will be one vote in twenty decided by a party's posturing on climate change.

Peter From Maidstone

Here in Maidstone we have a new Conservative candidate because Anne Widdecombe is standing down. But I have not seen any sign that the local party is doing anything to promote her. Are they assuming that support will remain rock solid and they don't need to do anything?

I am not sure that there is a large enough core and tribal Conservative vote any more to allow the Conservatives to assume they will be supported.

I am myself not a tribal Conservative, and I think there are a lot of people like me, not tied into voting Labour because of benefits or employment, but with a whole load of concerns which need to be addressed by the party I will choose to vote for.

Our new candidate seems to have nothing to say on immigration, Europe, Islam or any other controversial but important matters. So I have to ask myself why I should choose to vote Conservative - that there is no other choice is not much of a reason.

So I think that there is a core Labour base which will vote for its own benefit and for benefits. This is solid. But I think the unthinking Tory vote is probably only as large or not even so large.

For the rest of us, we are WILLING to vote Conservative, but not determined to do so. Therefore it seems to me that the margin of possible victory is shrinking - not because in the end many people will not hold their nose and vote for Cameron, but because a large proportion of people are becoming disillusioned with Cameron and his version of Conservatism because it seems to be essentially the same as New Labour. I think it is the support of these thinking and concerned conservatives but not Conservatives which Cameron is losing by his failure to address the issues that concern us, or worse by his seeming acceptance of the New Labour and EU project.

Viv Evans

Ahem.

I think it would be well to keep in mind the polls leading up to the Swiss Minaret referendum, and the actual outcome of that referendum

People lie to pollsters. It might well be the case that many say they'll vote Labour where in fact they are going to vote for the BNP.

Mind - if these results will chivvy some Tories to get off their butts and see what we, the people, the taxpayers, want, and what we think about such issues as ClimateGate or the EU, the polls may well go up again.
If they've gone down, that is - what about the margin of error?

TomTom

If Conservatives don't get a majority and new parties enter Parliament it is debatable whether Cameron will be PM in any coalition. The problems will be so overwhelming as financial markets react that someone stronger and more hard-nosed might be required to stabilise the forex markets and avoid interest rate instability.

Cameron without a majority will be a liability to his party and to the country.

Percy

Christopher Bowring, keep quiet about Climategate, it may draw attention to the fact to people like little Zac Goldsmith and the fact that Dave will be replacing the current government of second rate student activists with a new cabal of second rate rich people.

Mirtha Tidville

I wish it were otherwise but I find myself agreeing totally with Ex Tory Voter...

Publius

Just wait until the wheels come of the economy. At the moment Brown and Balls are doing their best to pretend it's business as usual (or, rather, reckless spending as usual - with a few ludicrous efficiency savings).

George J

I've come to realize I've been wasting my vote on the tories for 30 years. I'm past caring about the possibility of a hung parliament - really, I don't give one. Cameron is Tweedle Blair. I see his lips move, I hear noises coming out and all I hear is, "more of the same." Cameron or Brown, it makes no difference.

So you can take your "it will only let Labour in again" bogeyman stories and stick 'em where the sun don't shine.

The fact is, UKIP have the policies that appeal to me. At the next GE, they could pin a UKIP rosette on a donkey and I'll vote for it. And don't bother telling me you've ever cast your vote on any higher principle than that.

Vulture

I think that the reason the Tory op lead is proving as soft as Dave's chubby cheeks is that the average voter has no idea where he stands - no more does he.

Ask even a Camerloon to spell out (say) six distinctive, principled Tory policies that will be different from New Liebour and you will get a stuttering silence. Because there aren't any.

Add to that the fact the Team Dave consists of posh rich chaps like Dave himself, Osbers and the ineffable Zac who have never held a proper job outside politics and you see the Tory lead fading away like snow in a chip pan.

As to those Tories who say that voting for UKIP will let Liebour in again, I answer: so what? In essence, Dave will be no different from Bruin. Why vote Blie Liebour when we already have New Liebour - with both we will staill have the joys of EU rule, Islamification, unfettered immigration, and climate con nonsense.

I'll vote Tory again when we get a Conservative leader again.

R King

Verity (and a few others) is it beyond your comprehension to understand that now the Lisbon Treaty has been ratified Cameron CANNOT unilaterally undo it.
His position has not changed over the EU.

Just to remind you it was Blair and then Brown who sold us down the river on europe and the treaty and it is they you should be directing your hate campiagn against.

Get real lady or we might think you lost a cog or two!!

Verity

Martin Rowe writes: "It just goes to show how many right-wing Europhobes in this country will willingly cut their noses off to spite their face and vote UKIP, potentially costing the Tories a majority."

Errrr ... that's the idea, yes. We don't want to be governed by a party led by pinko Cameron. All the Tories have to do to get a landslide victory is dump Cameron and put a Conservative in.

Verity

Wot Vulture said.

TomTom

Forget the polls. With 40% not voting in 2005 before popular disillusionment set in afterwards, the polls are having to adjust for voters heading for "Other" or "Abstention" in a big way.

So these 37% voting intention are probably on a 50% turnout and the gap between parties when they cannot muster50% the electorate between them becomes impossible for pollsters to predict.

The South will go Tory or UKIP and the North will go BNP in pockets and Conservative in others or maybe LD....but Labour is not going to get much support in Northern England after 12 years of ignoring people and then having local businesses like Bradford & Bingley and Halifax shedding jobs while Lloyds is pledged to protect jobs in Scotland.

Surprises lie ahead for the three main parties and Parliament may become a multi-party arrangement to add to DUP, SNP and PC with new alphabet soup

Fergus Pickering

'UKIP have the policies that appeal to me'. What policies are those? I thought UKIP had only one policy. Indeed they think so too or they wouldn't have offered to disband. Voting UKIP was always ludicrous, but with Lord Snooty in charge it is whatever word there is which is twice as strong as ludicrous - insane, barking, loony.

Beer Moth

R King

This is reversible. Don't think it isn't.

Peter From Maidstone

Martin Rowe, you are writing as if the Tories MUST get in. As far as I am concerned as a conservative, but not absolutely a Conservative, I could care less the name of the party who gets into power. What matters to me is that the party voted into Government represents my views to some extent.

If the present Conservative party does not represent my views very much, and in fact seems to be essentially and philosophically very similar to the New Labour party, then what obligation am I under to vote for them. I want change not more of the same, otherwise I am disengaged from the game and will look to a more revolutionary, though not violent, means of effecting change.

I have wondered about the possibility of the people themselves establishing an English Parliament to represent English people and challenge the hegemony of the political class. I have also wondered about the possibility of a campaign to elect None Of The Above candidates who would not stand as MPs as a form of resistance to the political class that treats us like fools.

Trafalgar Trafalgar

It's all about Cameron. The voters are still undecided about him, and it's how he performs in front of the public between now and the election that will determine the outcome. Brown just doesn't count any more - the public hate the guy, and Clegg is seen as a bit of a joke.

Verity, polls have historically shown that the Tories gain votes when Cameron has a lot of air time. He will be very prominent in the run-up so I'd expect a boost in the Conservative numbers when he is more front of centre.

How things play out in the marginals will be key. Boundary changes and tactical unwind virtually guarantee the Tories an extra 50 seats. UKIP only gain when the vote is PR based - and my guess is that the EU Treaty affair has lost the Tories about 2% at most.

The Al-Megrahi issue has lost the SNP about 8% - an almost direct switch to Labour. I believe this accounts for the entire recent increase in Labour's share.

As for the messsage on the doorstep. One word: Freedom.

The Conservatives sound best when pushing against the state - freedom from local education authorities, centralised police forces, NHS trusts, ID cards, further EU integration, etc. etc. These are the issues that will resonate.

Snowman

Amongst the five things that seem to matter judging by the blogs everywhere – AGW, immigration, the EU, law and order, and the economy – its only the last one where there’s a perceptible and material difference between the two. Dave, the courageous one, wants to cut a lot, and soon. Not a wise PR move. The other tribe as little as possible, and as late as possible. This together with the reasons given by teledu @ 3.51 have swung the polls, I reckon.

Judging from a nationwide polling may mislead. Unless things change, constituencies may vote for totally different reasons. It’s more than possible that areas with high immigration levels will return the Tories as the BNP eats into Labour’s base. Similarly for rural constituencies where the UKIP vote may deprive the Tories in favour of LibDems, or perhaps return UKIP themselves.

The key decider, however, will remain the economy. Any signs of a genuine turnaround, and Labour will be a shoe-in. You recall the massive unhappiness with the Iraq war, the marching millions? A fat lot of good did this do for the opposition. Tony got in with more than a comfortable majority, because the money was flowing in.

My money stays on a hung Parliament.

Verity

R King - "Verity (and a few others) is it beyond your comprehension to understand that now the Lisbon Treaty has been ratified Cameron CANNOT unilaterally undo it."

No government can bind its successor, so actually, were he PM, which he will not be, he could.

He might win office on the promise of either annulling Britain's signature on the Lisbon Constitution, or promise a referendum on continued membership of this slummy communist pig trough.

You don't seem to do much reading.

Alex

As always in GEs, it's down to the marginals .... where the Con-Lab gap is pretty significant, and points towards a certain Con victory.

2trueblue

Snowman, agree that we might well be going that route.

Verity, go ahead and you certainly will not be governed by anyone competent in any way, you may get your wish, enjoy!
We have 13yrs of incompetance in every area. We have nothing in the kitty to help us through what is yet to come. We have been lied to, not given our PROMISED VOTE
I am glad that the polls do not show a great lead, it will focus people to think and see that

Verity

2trueblue - "We have 13yrs of incompetance in every area."

No.

You have had 13 years of outstanding competence and malice. The Socialists/Commies have unravelled our entire country - our familial civil society, our legal system and laws, our great offices of state, the House of Lords, our outstanding educational system, the Monarchy, the Church - in just 13 years. The accomplishment is mind-boggling.

I say this without irony. It was done with cold deliberation and evil intent.

Marco9

Frankly, it is the kind of lunatic, deranged drivel from the likes of 'Verity' which appears often to be mistaken for Tory thought and drives down Tory poll ratings. Mind you, I am sure that Verity is really a Labour voter.

Diane C - London

Why on earth can't Cameron show a bit of PASSION occasionally! Why isn't he hopping mad at everything this dreadful Government has inflicted on this country? Why, at PMQ's, doesn't he roar with rage at what has happened to our education system? Why doesn't he just ridicule Brown with "there he goes again .. more tractor statistics" every time Brown spouts yet more ridiculous figures instead of answering questions. Every time Cameron stands up in Parliament, or is interviewed anywhere, I am willing him to show some of the anger and despair we all feel at what we have endured for the past long 12 years. But he is uninspiring in the extreme and sounds just like every other politician. No wonder he is making no progress in the polls.

Athesius the Facilitator

I have the same doubts about 'this' Conservative party as most of the contributors on this sight. Although I am wavering they will get my vote on the grounds that we MUST get rid of this lot. So I say to all the people on this sight to lend your vote to them just this once and then watch them closely. If they turn out to be a bunch of twirps then disenfranchise yourselves till a later time. But don't vote labour folks, just think about it. Yuk!

Gil

To those of you thinking of boting UKIP: You are helping to let Labour cling on - perhaps with the loony Liberals. Think about it! The Unions are destroying at least one train company (First Capital Connect); you thought this was Socialism? Wait till you see the next Labour govt.! And believe me, Labour will not stop their unbridled immigration project, it's part of their agenda which has been mentioned so many times before.

Vote Tory, not UKIP!

Snowman

Athesisus the Facilitator @ 7.54:

What makes you think that after a 8-12 years of a Tory Government we are not going to end as we did in 1997, ha?

steveal

Vulture - well said.
Oh, for a real Conservative leader. Not some identikit liberal wet.

RGtx

When Cameron stood for, and won the leadership of the conservative party, it probably seemed a great wheeze, the economy was seemingly bouyant, ratification of Lisbon would be determined by a referendum of the British people, and the prospect of being "heir to Blair" was his ambitions realized. How that dream has turned into the current surreal nightmare does not need retelling, my gut feeling is that, he has lost the passion for the top job, feels that he is completely out of his depth, and secretly would prefer a hung parliment.

lola

It'll all go tits up for Brown post Xmas. Just you wait and see. He has messed up big time and at some time the Voter will 'get it' and then he really is toast.

Damyon Run-on

Of course there is no Brown Bounce. It is Cameron Sag. Not to mention the slagging that he gets here, worse than the Mirror.

What we need is a Supermac equivalent.

Watt Tyler

To all those thinking of voting UKIP, please have the courage of your convictions, and vote UKIP

What is the point of holding a majority at the House of Commons when that institution is now playing second fiddle to Brussels. It doesn't matter what party wins the electoraly mandated reshuffle of the British provincial government if it is not a party that will revoke that status, and grab power back from the EUSSR. Cameron isn't interested in doing that because he could have done something about the Constitutional Treaty, and he didn't.

Verity is right. Labour have been devastatingly competent in ruining this country. Socialism isn't in national isolation. How can the EUSSR achieve the United European SOcial Paradigm with Real Conservative Britain in the ascendency. That entity has been a blockage throughout European history to a European Super-state controlled by a tyrant. The Tories will only continue to do Labours work if they get to power, because their European obligations (and they must stick to them, or get out of the EUSSR) dictate that they do.

So voting for Camerons supposi-tories is like voting for Labour. A hung parliamnet, with UKIP or the BNP holding the balance of power is the change that this country needs. I will be voting for UKIP.

John David Barnett

I don't want more of Labour. Therefore I shall not be voting for UKIP.

Reading some of the comments here is a painful experience for any sane person.

Once Labour was sunk by its Loony Left. Today we are being torpedoed by the Loony Right. What blind fools they are!

Amadeus Plonquer

I don't understand all this glass half-full means you're an optimist and glass half-empty means you're a pessimist malarky.

Why don't they just do what I do? Drink what's in the glass and order another one. This isn't difficult.

Archie

I do not understand all this "we can do nothing about the EU now that Lisbon is ratified" bullsh*t! Why wouldn't a strong leader - and that obviously precludes Cameron - just withhold the millions we send to Brussels each month? I bet THAT would get their attention! What would they do then, invade?

HokeyCokey

Everyone knows how useless labour are, how much much they have pi**ed away over their tenure, and also how grubby Brown is as PM. It's worrying that the tories aren't racing ahead as Blair was in 1997, I can only think that although everyone is fed up with Labour, the alternative doesn't seem that much better.

maximusmanc

The Tory support has dropped because people started to realise they were sleepwalking into a "by default" vacuous Cameron victory, and they would end up like Turkeys voting for Christmas. The soundbite from Osborne during his conference speech did not help once people realised his "we are all in it together" is rather hollow, since he, and his rich Tory frontbench pals and the rest of their rich bankrolling friends are the only ones certain of a less taxable wealth under the Tories, the rest of us would suffer and would have to pay more for our public services whilst they drive the country back into a recession through savage cuts. That's what's scared people and that is why they will find it hard to make people believe when they are trying to U-turn on their disingenuous hardline. oh and the EU referendum fiasco ....

Pie

It was the EU wot done it. Cameron said he 'didn't want to isolate us from the EU'; a typically moronic Liberal Democrat argument. Now we know for certain that he's a Lib Dem at heart.

He can talk all he wants about health and safety or political correctness, but we know he's bringing out this material to smoothie the anti-EU voters. It's cynical and blatantly false posturing. Just like that "cast iron guarantee" with its small-print get out clause.

David Cameron is a Liberal Democrat, not a Tory.