Testing times for the Tories
James Forsyth 8:01pm
The opinion polls are continuing to feed the story that the Tories are in trouble. Tonight’s Politics Home data which shows Cameron’s personal ratings dropping 15 points in the last 10 weeks follows a string of polls where the Tories have failed to break through the forty percent mark.
Tory morale has been a bit shaken by these polls; Cameron could do with a decisive win at PMQs tomorrow to gee up the Parliamentary party. But turning these numbers around is, I suspect, going to require some policies that show us what David Cameron’s irreducible core is. Oddly enough, I don’t think these policies have to be particularly popular but they have to show the electorate that Cameron stands for something, that he isn’t just another say anything to win politician. Picking a fight on offering substantial recognition to marriage in the tax system might actually be a good strategy for Cameron in these circumstances. It would show that there are some things he will stand up for whatever the risks.



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kevin kearney
December 1st, 2009 8:23pm Report this commentThe Tory slide in the opinion polls coincided with Cameron’s decision not to honour his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon treaty.
Snowman
December 1st, 2009 8:44pm Report this commentThree and one thing he could say, and wriggle out of after he gets in:
We will stop non-EU immigration (except as asylum) for two years, and sort out the status of the illegals.
We will set up a Royal Commission of experts from relevant scientific disciplines to re-examine AGW.
We will set up a panel together with the new EU members, where the majority of the public shares the views of the majority of the UK public on the EU, that will agree within two years on a limit on EU federalization.
We will re-introduce genuine punishment into the criminal justice system.
david
December 1st, 2009 8:52pm Report this commentThe public have rumbled, 'empty Dave' no amount of hype from the Spekkie will change that. The UK is heading for a hung parliament, and huge changes in both its electoral system and the parties: and about time to.
strapworld
December 1st, 2009 9:04pm Report this commentMr Forsyth.
You say that Cameron has to show the electorate that he stands for something!
This just underlimes what Verity, myself and others have been writing. He is an unknown, just months from a General Election.
The one promise he has broken and he expects people to give him their vote!
Mr Kearney is right and Snowman suggests how he could regain some momentum. Cameron will only listen to his inner cabal, the Oliver Letwin's and Maude's of this world. So for him to actually pronounce good old tory policies would be totally against whatever values he may or may not hold.
IS he about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
egh
December 1st, 2009 9:06pm Report this commentAnother thing he might try is Be Prepared - to tell the euSSR to get out of Britain: because they are here as invaders and the people don't want them.
But no. The polls, the ad-men, the marxist manual, the re-inscribed history books, the illegal foreign voters, the quangos ... none of those support such outlandish, unprecedented, concepts.
No. The Idiot People must be wrong.
Mirtha Tidville
December 1st, 2009 9:06pm Report this commentPeople are totally fed up with Brown but cant embrace Cameron as he appears just too much like liebour....At first I thought he was just keeping his powder dry but I think his true agenda is too left, liberal and wishy washy to be an alternative to this present shower of shite and seems afraid to say so....
In the vacuum BNP and UKIP and the Greens will do well and a hung parliament,with all that implies, beckons.
Cant see any alternative but I do hope I`m wrong...
lola
December 1st, 2009 9:09pm Report this commentWhat Cameron (and the Tories) do with is some decent policies.
welease woger
December 1st, 2009 9:20pm Report this commentToo much is being read into these polls.
There is a phony war at the moment and really not much is happening in politics as far as Joe public is concerned. Brown is a lame duck but Cameron is not quite looking like the PM in waiting. The next government has to be strong and united and the Tories haven't helped themselves recently on that score.
So, yes let's have some strong and believable policies. We're not stupid, we know it's going to hurt so just tell us how you are going to drag this country out of the gutter.
Things should warm up next week with the PBR.
Jeremy
December 1st, 2009 9:34pm Report this commentDave lost it when he backed off from his commitment to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It would seem the only person in the country who doesn't understand this is Dave himself. That (plus so clearly signalling his intention to cravenly comply with whatever it is the Americans might want at any given time) is what has holed him beneath the waterline - at least so far as the discerning voter is concerned. The last thing this country needs is yet another shallow and craven PR front man. That part of the voting public which cares about the fate and future of this country will already have read the runes and decamped elsewhere.
"Picking a fight on offering substantial recognition to marriage in the tax system might actually be a good strategy for Cameron in these circumstances. It would show that there are some things he will stand up for whatever the risks."
*grins*....it's that last sentence which tickles me. What about standing up for the nation against the encroachments made upon our national sovereignty and independence by both the United States and the EU? That's not on the agenda, I suppose. But - by God, sir! - he'll stand up for tax incentives to keep married people together. Now that's what I call REAL political courage....^^
Stepney
December 1st, 2009 9:35pm Report this commentNumber of UKIP, BNP and Green parliamentary seats this time next year?
None. Zilch. Rien.
Do the Math.
First past the post and long may it continue to be so.
immcintyre
December 1st, 2009 9:38pm Report this commentCameron made a mess of PMQs last week about school funding and his remarks today about health and safety were wooly and easily broken down by the BBC on Today. More meaty remarks are required, to convince the electorate that he is man of substance.
AAE
December 1st, 2009 9:43pm Report this commentStatistically, Cameron's poll ratings will be liable to such floating fluctuations, not just for the reason of policy that teledu articulated so succinctly in an earlier post, but because he insists on pandering to 250,000 or so floating voters, instead of taking Lord Tebbitt's advice and talking to the 40% of voters who stay at home on election day. But that would require principle and grit . . . . . . .
BobH
December 1st, 2009 9:49pm Report this commentCast Iron Cameron is as solid as a jelly. He has proven that he is an untrustworthy liar.
HE IS NO DIFFERENT TO THE OTHER TRAITORS WHOSE PRIMARY LOYALTY IS TO FOREIGNERS.
Someone, please, please give me one good reason to believe anything the Tories say again. When they were in power before, they massively betrayed this nation's sovereignty. Cameron has now backed away from doing the one thing which would prove the Tories are in any way patriotic to the United Kingdom.
Who in their right mind would trust Cast Iron Dave again.
Watt Tyler
December 1st, 2009 9:52pm Report this commentPhil Jones steps down. David Cameron continues to back the wrong horse.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/01/phil-jones-steps-down/#more-13514
J H Holloway
December 1st, 2009 9:54pm Report this commentHere's a free re-positioning policy.
Reverse up from using the phrase Global Warming and go for 'Fuel Saving' policies.
This exact line is used by Carlos Ghosn boss of Renault-Nissan.
I saw him at the FCC in Tokyo last month and he refused to say whether he believed in GW, simply offering the fact that oil will become more expensive in the future and security demands a diversification of energy sources.
And Fuel Saving means money saving, which is much more palatable message for the majority in this country who struggle along.
Also, the Conservatives really, really have to sort out their attempt to boil down populist messages. Radical schools last week and now Health and Safety. Both messages were right but the bullet-point backup hopelessly flawed.
What are the dollies in central office doing? Can't anybody get Daily Mail style outrage right?
I fear Dave just can't do this pure anger stuff. Watch Kinnock's Militant speech or Maggie's 'rule of the mob' number. The punters ALWAYS respond to somebody who knows their own mind and is genuinely morally outraged by the opposition.
John Richardson
December 1st, 2009 10:26pm Report this commentJeremy (9:34pm)
is correct.
How a journalist can write about the public rumbling Cameron; and not even mention in passing, the R. word is very New Britain.
I suppose it passes for New Journalism in the New Spectator.
Under their New Editor.
It's the New Professionalism.
Vital to the New Police.Ethos of the New Royal Navy.Pride of our New NHS (rated Excellent).
Perhaps it would help if Cameron went looking for the real icon of his leadership.
Those Huskies...oh....wait a minute...
Ben
December 1st, 2009 10:32pm Report this commentWhatever Cameron has or has not said you cannot let Labour in again surely
Tom Pride
December 1st, 2009 10:48pm Report this comment“Dave lost it when he backed off from his commitment to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It would seem the only person in the country who doesn't understand this is Dave himself.”
It was not just the actual backing off, it is the sense that the whole position was a stitch up. You pick up a feel that he never intended a referendum and created a policy whereby he could pretend to honour the manifesto commitment while all the time knowing that one would never be held. All that, can’t say what we will do if it is ratified before the election while it remains un-ratified, just did not ring true.
And all this talk of never happening again is just unbelievable. Any law he passes will just be repealed when the political elite needs be.
It is about trust. Once lost never regained. The “ultimatum game” explains how a sense of unfairness will cause people to take a course of action contrary to their economic and best interests – such as voting UKIP in a first past the post election. What else can a hurt and frustrated conservative do?
This is going to hurt the Conservative's election prospects.
kein
December 1st, 2009 10:58pm Report this commentben.why not whats the difference.neither will give me what i want.i was set to support and vote conservative.but now ukip stands between me and the bnp and i hope ukip do what they say.
John Smith
December 1st, 2009 11:13pm Report this commentAny sensible hardline euroskeptic should weigh up the reality if they vote UKIP. As UKIP will never form a government, a vote for them in favour of the Tories is a vote for Brown. This is reality, not some fanatical dreamworld where UKIP form a government and send the EU packing. This reality would mean 4 more years of Labour and their pro-Europe ideologically. There's definitely a chance that Brown could force the Euro on us so he doesn't have to sort out his financial mess. Where Brown would push for the further negotiation Cameron is against it. He's on the record that if he's unable to bring back powers from the EU he'll hold a n in/out referendum.
Voting UKIP is careless and will allow Labour to get back in. Four more years of marxist equality legislation, four more years of an ever closer state, four more years of their economic policies.
Be wise, for goodness sake.
Marbury
December 1st, 2009 11:25pm Report this commentArguably, taking a stand on health and safety is exactly what he shouldn't be doing. It plays right into the perception that he's a bandwagon-jumper.
TrevorsDen
December 1st, 2009 11:31pm Report this commentYou would never guess from these self serving ramblings that the Tories have a 10% lead.
Nor would you guess that the tories voted against Lisbon and it was Lab and LibDems who broke their promises, whilst Cameron stuck to his - read the quote.
Pretending that Cameron 'backed off' or some such does not make it true.
Anymore than pretending that the tories do not have any policies.
You nwant policies though?
One of the biggest policies Blair had was PR - what happened to that? One of the biggest policies Labour had was abolishing tobacco advertising in F1 - remember that?
One of the neatest policies Labour had was abolishing the House of Lords - what happened to that?
And a really neat policy was to offer a referendum before passing The EU Constitution - what happened to that?
Really the dumbos in the house do not know where their bread is buttered, but don't worry, I and a few others will vote tory to allow them the luxury of their chip on shoulder throw away of their vote. Someone has to keep Brown out - save the country from itself, you know the form.
BTW
LibDems have now reneged on their plan to hold an in/out referendum as well.
Dave B
December 2nd, 2009 12:09am Report this commentTosh. The current polls are just a statistical blip. Roll on the election :-)
Dennis Churchill
December 2nd, 2009 12:47am Report this commentCameron’s tactic of winning over the BBC/Guardian just enough for them not to try to destroy him may have gone too far. The majority of the electorate are sick and tired of the Political Correct nonsense they have been force fed for over a decade .Cameron now comes over as just another New Labour Clone. That and his decision to accept the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum have undermined him.
Why believe anything in a manifesto, or any promise made by a politician after Lisbon?
Inside Man
December 2nd, 2009 1:29am Report this commentI think the Tory vote is weakening from the inside out. It's the core voters who are melting away. Lisbon has been profound for a lot of them, they know there is no point on having a referendum on something done so now it's time for a different one. Do we want a more independent relationship with Europe?
Dave should be destroying the Labour Party with their raging incompetence, fiscal bankruptcy of the country, U-turns on everything. Instead he lets Brown hammer away on IHT without swiping back how Labour immediately copied the policy and second it benefits everyone but millionaires.
He is chasing a few voters, ironically exactly what Ken Livingstone did, and look how that ended. There are votes in a firm Europe policy of disengagement, set it out and refuse to be drawn, Clarke can resign and Labour can hardly get into a battle when they lied over a referendum.
I used to think he was keeping his powder dry and letting Brown hang himself a bit more, I still really hope this is the case but I'm getting worried and want more meat and less museli. My vote had for a number of years been in the bag now it's a lot more soft.
Holly ......
December 2nd, 2009 7:06am Report this commentInsiderman.
This is Labour and the media's new tactic.
Do not listen to anyone, go by your instinct on which party is BEST for the majority of the UK and vote accordingly.
It had me doubting as well but I listened to my 'gut feeling' when thinking about each party individually.
Take each party, NOT the personality,the party and think how you would feel if they were to get elected.
Would they improve the things important to the majority?
Only you can make the decision, not the commentators, not the media and certainly not the Labour party sneaking about doing more harm to everyone by spooking people during the worst crisis this country has ever been in.
Who will fix this?
People are expecting far too much from oposition parties at the moment.
Bide your time, enjoy Christmas and make a decision in the new year.
All I know up to now is who I am definitely NOT voting for.It's a start.
Austin Barry
December 2nd, 2009 7:49am Report this commentHere, gratis - well, a peerage would be nice - is a guaranteed method for Dave and his chums to win the election by a huge majority:
Pledge to introduce within one year of forming a government, Swiss-style, mandatory referenda on foot of, say, 500,000 signatures, with binding results.
A sure vote winner, but Dave won't go for it because, well, like the rest of our ruling elite he really doesn't like democracy and oik power.
Stephen
December 2nd, 2009 8:42am Report this commentThe trouble is his policies are still not clear enough for people to identify with. Sign Jeremy Clarkson up to a Party Political Broadcast and let Clarkson have a rant about the England of NuLabour as he goes on Top Gear! Thats what people want to hear not flip flop from Dave and Boy George!
steve
December 2nd, 2009 8:49am Report this commentIn the vain hope that someone in CCHQ might just be reading all these posts, here is my opinion.
What the country needs, and what I suspect many people also want, is a strong traditional style conservative party. One that brings back fiscal discipline, rids us of the welfare culture, and stands up for what it believes in. One that is NOT politicaly correct - tell it as it is, and ignore the media advisers who are part of the problem.
We know we don't have a "downturn" - we have a full blown financial crisis.
We know that we don't have "social coherance issues" - we have social chaos based on lack of discipline and strict law enforcement.
The list is endless.
Unfortunately, what the Tory party has done is accepted the New Labour method of politics and gone all P.R. and P.C. and frankly, this is what the country is sick of.
Get tough, get realistic, get nasty if required and watch the opinion polls climb. And if you don't, then we will just vote for any other party who will.To give a clue, it is the realistic and tough bit that we want. A little bit of the Rudi Juliani New York medicine would go do quite nicely right now.
Vulture
December 2nd, 2009 9:06am Report this commentFace facts: if we don't know where Dave stands now after the years he has been leader, we'll never know.
It's because he never 'stands' anywhere. He's a mobile jelly who wobbles from speech to speech, snatching at each modish new fad
that's the talk of the dinner tables in Green Snotting Hill.
The millionaire clique now in control of the so-called Conservative Party (Dave, Osborne, Leftwing, Maude, Goldsmith et al)
don't understand gut issues like immigration, the EU, schools and law and order because they have no guts, are insulated from real life, and have never had to work in real jobs. (Dave's PR 'work' for a third-rate TV company is typical).
They have no appeal to working class voters who went to Thatcher in droves and will now abstain or vote BNP rather than Liebour.
As to UKIP : the seats where UKIP are strong are normally 'safe' Tory seats in the south and rural areas, so voting UKIP will not let in Liebour as the Camerloons claim.
We should follow the example of Australia where the Conservative opposition have just ditched their me-tooist Liebour stooge Turnbull in favour of a real Conservative. A real Conservative with real populist/ar conservative policies running the Tories...now there's a thought.
the shade of dr kelly
December 2nd, 2009 9:13am Report this commentthe narrowing in polls also co-incides with gordon being on wall to wall news on bbc and sky saving afghanistan, telling obama to send more troops, giving the troops all the equipment and helicopters they need and saving all ofthe polar bears and small sea-level holiday island nations.
he is at a fundamental disadvantage as brown can be seen "doing things" and being a statesman whereas the public just see the bits of cameron that the press allow and can only be limited to broad ideas and criticism of the government etc.
a major example is that brown can say his policy in dealing with the banking crisis worked and that the tories were wrong. he will never be criticised by the press as it is impossible to run a parallel model showing what would actually have happened if the tories policies were adopted therefor to the general public brown did "something" that saved "the economy" whereas cameron/tories are wrong and don't know what they are doing.
Colin
December 2nd, 2009 9:28am Report this commentMy genuine concern is that the rhetoric from the Tories may be different, but the actions and the resulting outcomes will be depressingly similar to the current situation.
Most people I know are of the opinion that in terms of the "biggies";
Tax, Immigration, EU, AGW, Crime, Defence, you can't get a fag paper between the Tories and Labour.
As I've said before, in the absence of true choice, the electorate may well take a "better the devil you know" approach.
Why does Dane still have expense cheats in his close team?
John David Barnett
December 2nd, 2009 9:38am Report this commentCameron is a real Conservative. What the likes of Vulture can't stand is that he is a real Conservative with brains.
Nick
December 2nd, 2009 10:43am Report this commentVulture keeps criticising Cameron for not being more like Thatcher.
But did Thatcher re-introduce grammar schools ? Did Thatcher reverse the growing authority of EU laws in Britain ? Thatcher (as a scientist) was also one of the first UK politicians to ever raise the issue of AGW as an increasingly pressing problem.
Remind me what "real world" jobs Thatcher did ? A couple of years as a research scientist. And from the moment of her marriage to Denis she was an insulated by money from the "real" world as Vulture complains is the current "millionaire clique".
Simon Denis
December 2nd, 2009 11:03am Report this commentIf the core voters imagine that not voting Conservative will do anything other than rejoice the hearts of their enemies, they are too stupid to deserve saving. A vote for UKIP is a vote for Brown, for it merely weakens the power of the only institution capable of driving him out. And yes, getting rid of that slab faced, spend thrift and scarcely honest goon IS an end in itself. He does more damage, more surely and with greater malice in one day than Dave could do in a year. You want differences? Look at education - Gove towers above the spiteful Balls. Look at finance - the Conservatives understand the need to reduce the size of the state. Does Labour? With its burgeoning network of clients? The fact is that whether or not they know it, the people who happily jump up and down on Dave's prospects are objectively the servants and agents of the left. There is "clear blue water" but they don't want to see it. We are legally constrained over Lisbon, but they disingenuously refuse to acknowledge it. The pledge referred to the UNRATIFIED treaty but this point of honesty passes their thick heads and staring eyes by. To hear the faint hearts, the bigots and the traitors busily mixing their poison bowl on the eve of possible liberation from Brown is truly nauseating. Such people should calculate their - and the country's - interests in terms of the really available options, but they are more interested in tap room rant. Shame on them.
Rhoda Klapp
December 2nd, 2009 11:13am Report this commentIf Cameron is a real conservative, why is he on the wrong side of all five of the issues where a majority of the public cannot find a party which supports their opinion?
What has Cameron ever said or done to make me think he is worthy of my vote? Where are the policies? Oh, I know, he has made speeches, but to me they sound like Blair speeches. When you analyze them they don't turn out to have any content. The rhetoric slips through your fingers like mercury and nothing is left.
Publius
December 2nd, 2009 11:29am Report this comment@Simon Denis
"We are legally constrained over Lisbon, but they disingenuously refuse to acknowledge it."
-- Dear God save me from timid, plodding, foreign-office, castrato lawyer-speak. If we are "legally constrained" by this dishonest constitution that has been forced on us, then I shall vote for whomever has the balls to cast off the vile yoke. And they can take their "legally constrained" and shove it.
"The pledge referred to the UNRATIFIED treaty but this point of honesty passes their thick heads and staring eyes by"
-- Then why didn't Cameron make it clear before hand. If it is unratified then X happens, but if it is ratified then Y happens?
-- But no. He hedged, and mumbled, and gave us a whole load of double-speak that convinced nobody.
So far I have had to accept the bollocks on no more grammar schools, and then the lies on Lisbon, and now, it seems, the timidity on Climategate. I'm getting sick of it. What next? That we must, after all, accept ID Cards and the ID database?
If Westminster must be reduced to the status of a ball-less local council, then stuff the lot of them. If they will not act like statesmen, then they deserve to be treated with the same contempt as the useless, powerless, faffing, busybody jobsworths of a local council. If the system really is that rotten, then let it collapse.
Vulture
December 2nd, 2009 11:30am Report this comment@ Nick: Thatcher was a woman. In that era - as you well know, middle-class woman as a rule did not go to work. It is greatly to her credit that she did ( however briefly).
Say what you like about her, she certainly felt and articulated people's instincts in a way that insulated Dave and his chums never could: 'swamping' by immigration; buying their own homes; facing down the Stalinoid unions; resisting foreign aggression in the Falklands; standing up to Soviet threats and burying Communism;
letting ordinary people buy shares etc etc.
Do you seriously suggest that flabby Dave could or would do any of these things? He couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper bag.
Rhoda is right : on the big issues that threaten our future : Dave is on the wrong side. He's a Blairite con-man and nothing more.
Rescomania
December 2nd, 2009 12:56pm Report this commentI agree with a lot of the above, regarding the need for some substance. However, I do think a number of things need to be kept in mind, not least of all that Cameroon has transformed the Conservatives into creditable opposition, successfully packaged himself in the centre of politics (whether or not that's a good thing is subjective) and still has plenty of time to announce policies.
It would be a huge mistake to announce Tory policies now and give the Govt a free ride to deride them etc. Most, if not all, policies should not be announced until an election is called. If the polls as that point still give the Tories at least a 10 point lead, then the announcement of good policies would be well timed to boost their lead.
However, I say the latter with one important caveat: if hard policies are not revealed in the run up to the election, then the only reason that I might vote Conservative would be to remove the current shower.
Cheers.
Lucy Jones
December 2nd, 2009 1:01pm Report this commentThe next election is going to be won by either Cameron or Brown - not by UKIP or the BNP, or even the LibDems. Tories or NULabour is the de facto choice.
Now Cameron might have his faults, but is surely infinitely better than another 5 years of Brown. Tempted though I am to vote UKIP, the thought of being condemned to another term of NuLabour is going to stop that happening.
Verity
December 2nd, 2009 1:05pm Report this commentI'm guessing here, but was David Cameron ever referred to as "Dave" in his life before he saw that a matey name worked for Blair? A phony in every regard.
denis cooper
December 2nd, 2009 2:38pm Report this commentHague speaking in the Commons, November 12th 2007:
"Let me say to the right hon. Gentleman that the best time for a referendum is now, so that the British people can have their promised say.
If we did not succeed in forcing a referendum in this House, if we failed to win in another place, if all other EU member states implemented the treaty and if an election were held later in this Parliament - that is a lot of ifs - we would have a new treaty in force that lacked democratic legitimacy in this country and in our view gave the EU too much power over our national policies.
That would not be acceptable to a Conservative Government and we would not let matters rest there; the right hon. Gentleman can be assured of that."
"That would not be acceptable to a Conservative Government and we would not let matters rest there" - so two years later, what is Cameron proposing to do, other than "let matters rest there"?
Dean
December 2nd, 2009 3:12pm Report this commentI fear the chickens are coming home to roost. The Tories' eccentric decision to use last year's banking crisis as a pretext to drop the talk about modernisation and reinstate a basically Thatcherite agenda at the depths of an unprecedented recession was always likely to (a) alienate floating voters in Northern England, (b) scare millions of public sector employees whose values are basically conservative, and (c) weaken Cameron's personal standing (which was based on him being the embodiment of a changed Party).
All this stuff about Cameron's stance on the Lisbon referendum is strictly for the birds - no-one worrying about job security in a recession is going to care a hoot about that. Fearing that your job security will deteriorate if the Tories win the general election is potentially much more toxic.
I and others predicted this outcome in various posts on Coffee House last autumn. I seem to recall that we were drowned out at the time by unreconstructed Thatcherites who seem incapable of learning the lessons of three general election defeats.
Well, if Cameron is denied an overall majority, you know whom to blame.
Ex-Tory voter
December 2nd, 2009 3:37pm Report this comment@Ben "Whatever Cameron has or has not said you cannot let Labour in again surely" The problem is, Ben, that by voting for Dave, many of us feel we WILL be letting Labour back in if he gets elected! I want somebody who is irrevocably committed to standing up for the British way of life and giving us a say on membership of the EU; someone who can fix the appalling education system and get social mobility moving by proven methods (look at social mobility in N Ireland while they had grammar schools). Dave ticks NONE of those boxes! UKIP, on the other hand, ticks all of them. It's MY vote and I will vote for the policies I want to see implemented, not cast it for things I don't want through fear that it might give Labour another chance. If Dave gets in, I won't see any change and that's why I've deserted the Tories after so many years. Plus, of course, I no longer trust him after his U turn on the EU. When Lisbon was ratified, he should have offered us an in or out referendum and then I wouldn't be an ex- at all!
denis cooper
December 2nd, 2009 4:29pm Report this commentDean @ 3:12pm -
"All this stuff about Cameron's stance on the Lisbon referendum is strictly for the birds".
Maybe, or maybe not:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/camerons-rating-starting-turning-down-after-he-announced-his-new-europe-policy.html
I think I read somewhere that the popularity of the party leader contributes about 25% towards the overall popularity of the party; on which basis a drop in Cameron's net approval rating from 35% to 21% would have a significant negative impact on the Tory party poll rating, knocking it back by several points perhaps.
Dean
December 2nd, 2009 5:32pm Report this commentCameron's U turn on Europe may have cost him some votes. However, his reversal is symptomatic of a deeper malaise, namely that he is shy of making firm policy commitments. I don't buy the argument that it is tactically astute to postpone this until nearer the election in case Labour steal Tory policies. The Tories should by now have a set of policies that no Labour politician in their right mind would want to steal, because they reflect a fundamentally different philosophical outlook.
Initially I thought these policies would start to emerge once the first phase of Cameron's modernisation project was complete. But the absence of specific policy commitments since then (despite the huge amount of detailed policy-related work completed under Cameron's leadership) creates a suspicion that he is determined to keep all his options open, usually the hallmark of an opportunistic politician.
Note, by the way, the contrast with Obama in America. Whatever one thinks of him, he had a very clear idea of what he wanted to achieve from Day One, and for the most part has given the electorate the policies they voted for. This is what strong leaders do.
2trueblue
December 2nd, 2009 6:41pm Report this commentVerity, yes, Cameron was know as Dave at uni.
As long as the polls keep changin it will get somewhere up and out, so it is good that the Tories are not racing away all the time.
Next year things might not be so rosy on the economic front and we are not yet climbing out of reccession, so Brown will come under a lot of fire. If people can not see the colour of the man the they too have a sight and perception problem.
Promise of Avalon
December 2nd, 2009 7:36pm Report this commentCameron needs to do something really quite simple. He needs to address the grievances that have led the electorate away from Labour: Immigration, EU, economy, welfare etc. The only problem is that the electorate is beginning to realise that Cameron is not offering them what they want. He needs to be bolder and offer a clearer conservative program of government.
Pie
December 2nd, 2009 9:34pm Report this commentFuture of Britain under Prime Minister Cameron:
*Two men or two women can marry each other and raise children legally as husband and husband or wife and wife. Sick.
*EU rule. Sick.
*Heavy immigration and pandering to the muslim community. British communities will vanish under the weight of our 'tolerant' society.
*Government helping divorce rate grow by allowing wife to throw a husband out of his own home and take taxpayer's money and her ex-husbands money. Give her nothing at all despite emotional arguments! = restore marriage.
Ray Smith
December 4th, 2009 9:00am Report this commentCameron's losing the fight because he's just an old school Tory Toff under the veneer, and the people have rejected that out of hand the last 3 times. Face it, if the Tories can't get ahead with Brown at the Labour helm, they never will again. The electorate haven't had time to forget the miserable 1980s yet. That's what a real recession looks like, and the Tories made those worst able to do so, suffer the worst effects of it. They haven't been forgiven, and there aren't any services left to sell off for a fast buck this time. They're still not electable.
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