Tories spring into a 16 point lead
James Forsyth 11:56am
Two new polls this morning offer real encouragement to the Tories. YouGov for the Sunday Times has them 16 points ahead of Labour at 43 percent, if replicated in a general election these figures would give them a three figure majority. ICM for the News of the World has the party on 40 percent, nine ahead of Labour.
The details of the YouGov poll provide further cheer for the Tories. 59 percent think Brown is doing badly as Prime Minister, while 51 percent say Cameron is doing well as opposition leader. The Tories have a 12 point lead on who the electorate trust to raise their standard of living which will become increasingly important as the voters begin to feel the economic pinch.
However, the internal Tory debate over tax will be fuelled by two of the poll’s findings. There is 67 percent support for the government taxing less and spending less. While 60 percent say that taxes can be cut without harming public services. Philip Hammond—who in an interview with Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph suggested that the Tories might not cut taxes until their second term—can expect to have these numbers thrown at him in the coming days.
Previous
Simon
March 16th, 2008 1:38pm Report this commentSorry, your not getting away with that. Fraser and the rest of the chuckle brothers on here have been telling us the Tories needed to privatise the NHS, slash taxes, and bring back the poor house to get a poll rating like this. Yet again you lot have been proved completely wrong. Here's a challenge for you and the rest of the boys. Go through all your past posts and try to find a single political prediction which has been proved correct. I wont hold me breath. Mystic Meg has a better record than you lot.
Neil McLeod
March 16th, 2008 3:15pm Report this commentThe Sunday Times in Scotland also conducted a poll by MRUK on Scottish Parliament voting intentions and leadership ratings. Not good news for Brown or his favoured protege Wendy Alexander. Scottish Parliament constituency vote: SNP: 39% (+6) Lab: 31% (-1) Con: 15% (-2) Lib: 12% (-4) Oth: 3% (+1) Scottish Parliament regional vote: SNP: 40% (+9) Lab: 30% (+1) Con: 13% (-1) Lib: 11% (-) Oth: 5% (-10) Projected seats: SNP: 57 Lab: 44 Con: 16 Lib: 12 How is Alex Salmond doing as leader of the Scottish Government Well: 70% Badly: 17% Don't know: 13% POSITIVE RATING: +53 How is Wendy Alexander doing as leader of the Scottish Labour Party Well: 30% Badly: 52% Don't know: 18% NEGATIVE RATING: -22 MRUK Cello interviewed 1,028 adults across Scotland between 29 February and 9 March. The Scottish sample of the YouGov poll was also bad news for Mr Brown. SNP 37% (+19%) Labour 30% (-9%) Conservative 18% (+2%) Liberals 11% (-11%)
Tiberius
March 16th, 2008 4:37pm Report this commentSimon, these are only one set of polls affected, presumably, by the budget. Like you, I believe Cameron is on the right track, but we don't want this blog simply to be populated by Cameroon cheerleaders. It doesn't hurt to discuss alternatives or challenge political models that Cameron believes are palatable to the electorate. The polls will probably swing back to a 3-5% lead in a few weeks because the Labour demon is not (yet) slayed. There is still a strong Labour vote. Unless something really fundamental goes wrong, which can unequivocally be laid at Labour's door, the electoral uncertainty will continue into 2010. I can't see Brown going to the country any earlier than that, and I can't see a poll lead like this lasting uninterrupted for a further two years in the way Blair's was over Major.
Nicholas
March 17th, 2008 12:10am Report this commentPretty damning stuff for Labour but on the question of the oath of allegiance the level of ignorance about constitutional history and the role of the Queen as Head of State is baffling. Are ten years of Labour and Blair's stealth republicanism to blame. the media, the behaviour of the younger royals or all of the above? When I look around I no longer recognise the country I was born in.
Simon
March 17th, 2008 10:15am Report this commentTiberius Hilariously it seems my post has been removed by the thought police. Obviously, its a crime to defend the Leader of the Conservative Party in robust terms here. Perhaps I will be readmited after a period of political re education.
Pete Hoskin
March 17th, 2008 10:20am Report this commentSimon: your post certainly hasn't been removed on purpose (oddly, the comments counter is actually showing one more comment than is appearing). I'll look into it and get back to you.
Pete Hoskin
March 17th, 2008 10:28am Report this commentSimon: it should be back up now. Sorry about that - we were having a few problems with comments over the weekend, so I guess things are still being a bit screwy.
Ian C
March 17th, 2008 11:04am Report this commentThis was the development we were waiting to see if it would happen. So long in coming! You journos are looking a little lacking in perception of what was a) likely to happen and b) understanding (giving credit?) to Cameron for what he was doing/trying to do. He is by no means home and hosed - especially if the new No 10 Team are yet to have effect. My own belief is that whatever the back room comes up with Brown will not have the skill and personality to deliver it. He should be out the back where he has been for the past 18 years and someone else (who? Balls? Ha Ha) out front.
Simon
March 17th, 2008 11:12am Report this commentno problem, glad no one has taken it the wrong way. Its all meant as a bit of laugh
TrevorH
March 17th, 2008 9:03pm Report this commentBrowns ascension to lead the labour party was meant to be a sea change in favour of labour, but, for various reasons, it has resulted in a sea change in the opposite direction. Bearing in mind the fortunes of the Conservatives over the last 10 years this is highly significant. Labour have lost face faith and favour with the electorate. The reasons for this epiphany should keep political commentators and psephologist's busy and in gin and tonics for years. No matter, the next election is eminently winnable for the Conservatives. You would think we ought to be satisfied !
Back to top