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Sunday, 6th December 2009

Brown waits to strike

Fraser Nelson 10:51am

Things are shaping up nicely for Gordon Brown ahead of the Pre-Budget Report next week. The Tories were 17 points ahead on ICM in October – now it’s 11. Cameron would have a narrow majority on this basis but, given the margin of error, we’re back into hung parliament territory. And this has a self-reinforcing effect on the Tories. A shrinking opinion poll means they tend to get paralysed, avoid arguments, play it safe, wait for Labour to screw up again. As I say in my News of the World column today, the voters who are looking for leadership then don’t really see it. This, of course, softens the Tory vote further. So the stage is set for Labour to get away with murder next week.

Brown is pretty useless at winning elections of any kind, but he certainly knows how to play psychological games with Cameron. The “class” card is – to use a Monkey analogy - like a Tripitaka headband fitted on Cameron: Brown just needs to say a few words (“Eton”) and agony ensues. Brown knows that the Tory high command are pathetically hung up about class and which schools they all went to. So if he comes up with a 45p tax for the rich, Osborne will match it. Raise it to 50p and the Tories will still match it. If the pre-Budget report next week suggests deporting every third banker to Australia, Osborne would probably match that too.

It often seems there is nothing the Tories won’t do to avoid being being called the party of the rich, which is why they sign up to huge Labour errors (not even Labour has been so stupid as to pledge to protect the wasteful NHS budget). So the Tories seem to be going through one of their all-too-regular crises of confidence. The time is, alas, ripe for Brown, in his Budget, to make one last major strike.

P.S. What a pleasure to have both TGF and Tiberius on my case once more. Just like old days. To clarify to both: I have not given up on Cameron. I consider him a formidable and potentially transformative leader who is being badly advised on this Eton thing. My criticism of Cameron is informed by my high opinion of his potential. He could be wiping the floor with Brown right now – yet an obsession with tactics has paralysed the Tory operation. Too much caution. As James says, the result is that Labour defines the Tories' economic policy because its message is the stronger of the two.

Filed under: Conservatives (2073 more articles) , David Cameron (1714 more articles) , Dividing lines (64 more articles) , Gordon Brown (906 more articles) , Labour (2013 more articles) , Polls (246 more articles) , Pre-Budget Report (45 more articles) , Public finances (704 more articles) , UK politics (4907 more articles)

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Prodicus

December 6th, 2009 11:04am Report this comment

Well, you've cheered me up no end. Get a grip, Fraser. Stop doing Brown's work for him.

welease woger

December 6th, 2009 11:11am Report this comment

I generally admire Fraser's analyses but this is rubbish.

Vulture

December 6th, 2009 11:11am Report this comment

"....wait for Labour to screw up again"...well, they won't have to wait too long, then.

If Dave really wants to defuse the Eton issue, he should do or three simple things.

1) Bring forward the many prominent Tories ( Hague, Fox, Pickles, Davis)...who did NOT go to posh schools.

2) Stop favouring those members of his inner clique (Osborne, Leftwing, Maude) who did - Maude should be sacked immediately for flipping; Osborne moved away from being Shadow Chancellor to running election strategy (He looks like a smirking schoolboy and is irredeemably lighteight); and Leftwing should not be allowed anyhwere near policy - which should be handed to John Redwood.

3) Drop Goldsmith as a PPC. He's going to lose Richmond, which should be a Tory shoo-in and every time he opens his mouth another hundred thousand Tory votes go south.

4) Poke childish fun at all those on the LIebour benches who went to public school too. Eg. Harriet Harperson, Shaun Woodward,
Quentin Davies, and above all Ed Bollox. Not to mention T. Bliar of course.

Sorted. But of course it won't happen. Clique Cam will go on stewing in its pathetic guilt and adopting non-Tory policies. They are peeing this election away.

DavidDP

December 6th, 2009 11:20am Report this comment

Yeah, if only the Tories would jump headfirst into the elephant traps laid for them. That would be so much better.

For Brown.

John

December 6th, 2009 11:20am Report this comment

Thanks for the Sunday morning laugh. Usually your stuff is more on the mark but everyone misses the target sometimes.

Edward Palmer

December 6th, 2009 11:22am Report this comment

Vulture nails it. Just add Ken Clarke as shadow chancellor - the huge advantage of him knowing how to do the job and having a "safe pair of hands" would boost the polls 5%

John Bracewell

December 6th, 2009 11:22am Report this comment

Vulture
'They are peeing this election away'
Here, Here!

Publius

December 6th, 2009 11:29am Report this comment

Polls are so tiresome. Still, since you mention the polls, here's today's Sunday Times:

"The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows that the Conservative party is retaining a commanding 13-point lead, contradicting recent suggestions that Labour had narrowed the gap enough to make a “hung parliament” likely.
The Tory lead is fractionally down on last month’s gap of 14, but remains big enough to assure David Cameron of a comfortable majority."

Ben

December 6th, 2009 11:38am Report this comment

Somewhat surprisingly, I think Vulture's right on most points. I also think that Fraser is too pessimistic here though. Presumably Dave or his team read the odd Coffee House post, and it has to be said, he is generally good at playing the long game, whereas Broon is a very reactive short-term feartie these days. People should stop worrying about the influence of "Bad" Al Campbell - he's past it - and Mandy is completely and utterly overrated.

Glenis Murphy

December 6th, 2009 11:40am Report this comment

cameron in my view is a better comedian than politican. He is more interested in cracking jokes than politics. He is very funny at times but i dont think jokes run england and its future. I am a conserative but I could not vote cameron or george osbourne in as i think they will destroy us financially.

Colin

December 6th, 2009 11:41am Report this comment

The tories need to be specific about the choices we will have at he next election. Voters are desperate for reasons and in some cases, excuses for getting rid of Labour. The problem is, where's the choice? There's nothing to choose between the three main parties on tax, immigration, defence, AGW, Europe, big state, crime, welfare...

Sure, there are differences in the rhetoric, but it looks like the actions and the outcomes of those actions will be depressingly similar. The tories have been out of office for thirteen years and are unproven. The fleeting glimpses they give us, from time to time tell us that rather than offer a genuine alternative, with fresh ideas, they're very willing to take the easy route by falling into line with the government. Think Iraq, AGW, tolerance of expenses cheats and tax.

To be honest, I quite enjoy my life, I'm not sure I want to risk f*cking it up, just to give a bunch of political crooks, journeymen and chancers, with different coloured rosettes a go. I know a lot of people who feel the same. I occasionally shout at the telly or the radio, when I see or hear muppets like brown, balls and straw. I get really depressed when I contemplate the reality that we have allowed men and women of questionable integrity into positions of power - think mandelson and blair. But, in the end, I can always switch off the TV. I am fortunate enough to be able to insulate myself and my family from the worst excesses of the state, as a result, I will vote for the party that looks like helping me maintain my lifestyle, the most.

For the love of god, show us something different, Dave...

JohnOfEnfield

December 6th, 2009 11:42am Report this comment

Fraser, your logic might be correct but the conclusion is irrelevant.

Blair won three elections by being inclusive & supporting the hopes of the aspirational classes (manual workers as well as "toffs"). He ran a "big tent". The passage of time and the results of Brown's roles as both Chancellor & Prime Minister have totally destroyed Blair's legacy (if you can call it that).

Drawing "Lines" & poking fun at "toffs" demeans the High Office Brown holds. He is not a statesman, he has no concept of it. He is a bitter & twisted socialist researcher and always comes across as such.

We will all "draw the curtains" on him - just as the wounded soldiers have done.

All that Cameron has to do in the face of this sort of puerile name-calling is to respond by acting in a statesmanlike manner.

strapworld

December 6th, 2009 12:13pm Report this comment

I am afraid that Cameron is showing everyone that he is no leader.

IF, as Fraser suggests, Cameron is very sensitive about his and other tory public school backgrounds, he should as a LEADER do the very things that Vulture suggests.
Most especially get Davis, Redwood, Hague, Clarke and Fox UP FRONT and kicking and SACK Leftwin and Maude.

Mind you IF he was a leader he would not have had such a move pointed out to him. It would have been obvious.

IF he was a leader he would not be sensitive to such crass language from a failed, incompetent, bully of a Prime Minister.

Fraser Nelson and others are right that Cameron has to show some strength and give the voters hope that he has got idea's to get us out of this bloody awful mess.

Why not give him a double barreled, from the hip, question along the lines:- "What gives an unelected prime minister from a Constituency in Scotland the right to place this country in hock, send it lock stock and barrel to the EU without the people given a voice, allows unlimited immigration creating massive tension, allowing the BNP to attact much support from ordinary white and black people afraid of this country being taken over by a vociferous minority religion! Who has handed the City of London and the Common Agricultural Policy to the French and who has been out maneuvered within the EU by better politicians, the right to carry on. The time for a general election is TODAY stop fiddling like NERO and watching this Country burn. Go to the Queen today!

Rather long question I do appreciate- but you get the drift. There is SO much for Cameron to attack this discredited, useless man on. BUT that would take leadership and Camelion I am afraid aint got it!

Tiberius

December 6th, 2009 12:16pm Report this comment

I bet you hit the "enter" key with your fist after typing in the final full stop in that piece, Fraser.

The most salient take on recent polling came from Frank Luntz on This Week last Thursday. Let's not forget that our electoral system requires the Tories to play the ref as well as the opposition, and as I have maintained from day 1, Cameron will do well to achieve a majority of over 30. For most people, the Deficit is still nothing more than a figure with a lot of noughts attached to it.

The Tories have emerged successfully from each of the polling troughs since Brown seized power, and while I personally wouldn't call an 11 point lead a trough, they will again build on that statistic.

Nicholas

December 6th, 2009 12:24pm Report this comment

Labour hold the narrative through the media. When the Tories are the target the message is loud and strong. When yet another outrageous revelation about New Labour emerges everything goes quiet, including it seems the Tories. I don't fully understand this.

Somehow the truly abhorent nature of New Labour is recognised (throughout the blogosphere) but does not seem to factor into polling. If New Labour had the polling they deserve they would be somewhere around 1 or perhaps 2%. I don't fully understand this either. Personally I cannot think of anything worse than another 5 years of Brown and New Labour. It would mean the complete destruction of the country we once knew and loved.

The boost that an election victory or even a hung parliament would give to the hubris of the party of hubris would be unimaginable and if you think the last six months have seen a lurch to the left just wait until their claws are tight around the levers of power for another 5 years. Not just the government and the party but their horde of left-leaning, unelected and unaccountable empowered "clientale" (especially the loud-mouthed wimmin) who are de-constructing society at every opportunity.

When I read pieces like this I realise that the right and even the centre-right, maybe even the centre, have no idea what kind of fight they are in. How every nuance can be manipulated and subjected to the propaganda of the left. Cameron does not appear to have the grit to scare the horses like Thatcher, or to call out New Labour and its gang in a way that would resonate with the English majority. His speeches do it - but they don't carry, they don't take root. They are far too reasonable in the grim face of evil. Cameron and the Tories are playing the old Parliamentarian game. Labour have had the media and commentariat in harness and under the lash for 12 long years; their propaganda is still not being seen and despised for what it really is. Their sham is still being believed, still being supported.

toco

December 6th, 2009 12:55pm Report this comment

Fraser you fail to mention Lord David Sainsbury Labour's largest private donor over the last few years with contributions in excess of £15 million.Lord Sainsbury who was also a Minister in this failed Government is an Old Etonian.It is also interesting to note Harriet Harman went to the sister school of George Osborne.You shouldn't need to be an impoverished left wing trade unionist to qualify for public office and indeed many trade unionists have totally lost faith in this shambolic Administration.

Michael Booth

December 6th, 2009 12:57pm Report this comment

Don't know how Brown has the brass neck to harp on about public schools considering his front bench team. Why no attack from the Tories? Ed Balls dressed up as a Nazi in his student days - why no attack? Why no hammering home the great benefits Labour has bestowed, like a raid on people's pensions, selling off the gold reserves, surveillance state, the who shabang? Why not some guts? (preferably Ed Balls' splattered over Westminster, but hey...)Is there nothing Cameron and Co can come up with to put Brown on the back foot?

Nick

December 6th, 2009 1:00pm Report this comment

I think you are all taking this toff thing too seriously. Until a couple of weeks ago no one was mentioning class at all. Brown had a couple of good lines at PMQs which Cameron wasn't nimble enough to counter and suddenly you are suggesting the whole Tory edifice is collapsing.

There's no doubt that Cameron looks like a toff, BUT all the polls suggest he personally is a very likeable toff. Is the rest of the Tory high command really considered to be that toff ? Who do the public most recognise from the higher echelons of the party ? Hague, Davis, Fox.

And for every Etonian Letwin in Cameron's inner circle there is an Andy Coulson who went to a comprehensive.

Short the UK

December 6th, 2009 1:00pm Report this comment

1997 - 2007: The Bubble of Britain.

2007 - 2010: The Battle for Britain.

The public must deicide to back:

1. An evil man who has destroyed the public finances, a traitor and a bully.

2. A man who is decent, patriotic and believes in sound money.

This is the choice that will shape the destiny of our country. If the Evil Man wins our country will be totally finished, capital formation will rapidly decline and our economy would head toward proto-communism. The Middle Classes would shrink rapidly and social breakdown would escalate.

If the Decent Man wins there is a good chance that with a sound money policy and business tax breaks the economy could be pulled back from the abyss. Society would stay relatively cohesive.

In my lifetime there has never been a more important general election, remember we had petro dollars to pull us back from the abyss in the 80s, the cupboard is bare this time.

TrevorsDen

December 6th, 2009 1:05pm Report this comment

Blair was a public schoolboy,
Foot was a public schoolboy,
Callaghan sent his daughter to public school
Gaitskell was a public schoolboy
Atlee was a public schoolboy (I think his son and certainly his grandson went to public school – Stowe , as did George Monbiot, so AGW was born on the playing fields of Stowe)

Harman was a public schoolgirl.
People like Dianne Abbot send their children to public school.

Just where will Brown strike in his budget?
With a deficit of £180 billion (£200 billion anybody?)

There may be waste in the NHS budget - but the notion that it does not need protecting (after all YOU, or any of us readers, might be sick one day soon) is a moot one. Lets be more efficient with it but my own NHS trust faces severe cutbacks (no marginal seats near me) and the same will apply everywhere. Even keeping the budget as is is will be harsh for the NHS.

Watt Tyler

December 6th, 2009 1:11pm Report this comment

All the Tory leadership need to do is to talk straight. This is the only antidote. They don't need to surrender by promoting or demoting anyone based on the school they went to.

However, they cannot now start talking straight because they have already been caught out spinning.

There is also a flaw in the psyche of the Tory leadership. They have the guilt thing which usually makes for good socialists - you know, the sort who want equality for all so as to compensate their having a wealth of education, money and property. The trouble with these sorts it is always do as I preach, not as I do, and the little people have to pay for their pennance.

The good ground is there to be fought for, but this Tory leadership has forfeited it. The country has no future with Camerons tories.

Incidentily, what do they think about Climate Change, subsequent tax slavery, and AGW refugees? That's what I should like to know.

Wat Tyler

December 6th, 2009 1:15pm Report this comment

Strapworld - I believe Cameron has been playing us for fools over Europe. He doesn't upset that boat with Labour, because he shares the same vision.

TrevorsDen

December 6th, 2009 1:22pm Report this comment

Vulture far from nails it.

52% of public believe in AGM.

Strapworld is still in dreamland. But do not worry Strap - I will vote tory to keep Brown out, yoiu justs pander to the chip on your shoulder and stick with UKIP, we will still be safe.

Simon Stephenson

December 6th, 2009 1:24pm Report this comment

"As I say in my News of the World column today, the voters who are looking for leadership then don’t really see it"

I wish you were right, Fraser, but I think that the only "leadership" most of the teenage-minded public looks for is someone who gets on his hind legs and confirms their prejudices and miscomprehensions. There's not the slightest indication that the UK public understands the necessity for national policy to be precise and intricate, and, yes, sometimes counter-intuitive. It's as though the whole concept of progress through endeavour has been thrown on the scrapheap to be replaced by a focus on how best to cheat our way to a satisfactory result.

We deserve the nemesis that is surely heading our way.

TrevorsDen

December 6th, 2009 1:35pm Report this comment

I take the point Nicholas is making, but really only the BBC fits this bill. It is institutionally left wing

It is nonsense to say that labour would poll at 2%. They have a core vote - lots of people who would cut off their right arm rather than vote Tory. It would be amazing if in the forthcoming election that labour polled less than they did when Foot was leader.

However the 1700 - 3000 job losses just announced in Stockton (with workers blaming Mandelson) will not help the cause. The aftershocks of the rash linger on and with 2 million at least on wage freeze and wage cuts the deficit aint getting any smaller nor the urge to vote labour any bigger.

But you are right about the nasty labour party, I never cease to be amazed at Mr Dales constant surprise at how people he though nice and decent turn out to be vicious labour bigots.

Wyrdtimes

December 6th, 2009 1:37pm Report this comment

Let Brown talk about class then. And let the Conservatives talk about England.

Let them talk about Scotland's extra funding, their free higher education, their cheap prescriptions, their extra representation, etc etc etc.

Why is Brown allowed to vote on English issues? Why won't he even say the word England when talking about English issues.

Brown's played the class card. The Tories should unleash the English nuke.

Holly ......

December 6th, 2009 1:46pm Report this comment

'Things are shaping up nicely for Brown'?
Correct.
Some Labour voters may not mind that their lives revolve around state benefits and their children aspire to follow in their footsteps.
Some Labour voters may not blame chancellor Brown for not ensuring the banking system was regulated properly and not so liable to American sub prime lending and was happy to collect the tax from bankers bonuses to give to the Labour voter above.
Some Labour voters may be forgiving that their children are never diciplined,
punished or responsible for their actions.
Some Labour voters may be happy that immigrants are employed first because of lower pay.
Some Labour voters may be happy that their benefits will remain while the nasty Tory voters pay more taxes to get the economy back on track.
Some Labour voters may be happy that the troops are not funded properly and the MOD tried to sue troops to get back some of their compensation to enable the Labour government to pay their benefits.
Maybe some Labour voters are happy that many hospitals are disgusting and filthy leading to death.While targets are hit.
Maybe some Labour voters may be happy that loving parents have their children taken off them because they are,'not intelligent enough/overwieght,yet evil parents like baby Peter's are allowed to keep their's.
Some Labour voters may be happy that the country is billions in debt,yet know they will never contribute to helping pay it down.
Some Labour voters may be happy that the worker will be taxed more while the bankers get their bonuses.
Some Labour voters may be happy to carry on living like they do yet never give a thought to what lies ahead for their children who(hopefully)will still be alive in Britain when they are gone.
To some Labour voters taxes should pay for their lifestyle,paid for by the worker.
Some Tory voters think the workers should pay less tax that keep the shirkers shirking
What would the Labour government have to do to make the Labour voter unhappy?
Social justice? What exactly is that?

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:18pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Frank P

December 6th, 2009 3:19pm Report this comment

The government will lose the election because they are clapped out and people are sick to death of seeing the twats on TV. It doesn't matter much what the Cameroons do or don't do between now and the election, they will win by default and occupy the scorched earth.

Sarah

December 6th, 2009 3:21pm Report this comment

Brown has the hand of Mandelson the puppeteer up his back, directed by Campbell. He couldn't up think the lines himself!
The class jibes smack of desperation because the Labour Party have nothing to offer and so have had to resort to immature name-calling. It just shows up the chips on their shoulders.

Holly ......

December 6th, 2009 3:27pm Report this comment

Michael Booth.
We now have the dividing line between Labour and the Tories.
Smart clever V dumb arse clever.
The Tories do not need to hit the gutter,the Labour party en masse are quite happy to wallow in it all by themselves.
Being the morons they are.
All we have to do is watch.
The gutter will fill up with the sewage spewed out from the bunker in Downing Street
led by Campbell,Brown & Co.
The Tories will let them.
The majority will be sickened by the whole stinking spectacle.
No one likes the stench of sewage.
Picked up from the gutter.
Yes things are shaping up nicely for Gordon.
Pity the rest of the Labour party don't realise how big a margin they are going to lose by.Gordon does.
The thing we have learned out here is,
Labour have learned nothing from the last twelve years.
SSDD!Literally!
Wait until the election is called, then if the Tories do not come up with the goods, which is highly unlikely,criticise.
Give me an Eton boy & man any day of the week.

Pete Clark

December 6th, 2009 3:39pm Report this comment

As for the Eton connection...Another great triumph of English (or more accurately, Scottish) Socialism is that anyone is automatically excluded from public life if they are seen to have been decently educated.

Watt Tyler

December 6th, 2009 3:44pm Report this comment

Hey Frank P, I deduce that you must have registered to comment then? Or else the moderator has lost the plot.

OK, TrevorsDen, keep voting the status quo that got us where we are. I am sure that the Tories will win the next GE, because I think that all the Labour activity points to them trying to protect core support from the BNP.

But what difference will it make? The Tories are afraid of not looking like socialists. They can't do anything about Left-leaning Europe without leaving it - which they will never do - and so we will have Socialism by the Real Government. Keep voting for the same, keep getting the same.

Anne Wotana Kaye

December 6th, 2009 3:46pm Report this comment

Alas, too many have been bought by benefits and are so in their cups, or on NHS tranquillisers, they no longer know what day it is. It is said people get the government they deserve, so those of us who still have their marbles and pride have to suffer because of the wretches in Nu Labour's control.

Watt Tyler

December 6th, 2009 3:48pm Report this comment

Short the UK

Perhaps we need Social Break Down. Perhaps we need it to flush the Marxist element away - because it is so insidious that it can never be beaten by words - only violence. Ever thought of that?

Chuck Unsworth

December 6th, 2009 3:53pm Report this comment

OK, Frank P. We get the point.

Watt Tyler

December 6th, 2009 4:12pm Report this comment

Colin

You can't insulate your family forever. They are out to get the likes of you, matey.

John Bracewell

December 6th, 2009 4:19pm Report this comment

OK Frank P we get it! No more please!!

strapworld

December 6th, 2009 4:45pm Report this comment

Trevors Den has shown his normal capacity of not reading what people write. I have made my views on Ukip quite clear!

Rose tinted spectacles are still so obviously being worn!

Nicholas

December 6th, 2009 5:03pm Report this comment

TrevorsDen: "It is nonsense to say that labour would poll at 2%."

I wrote that they deserve to poll at this - I understand about their core vote.

TGF UKIP

December 6th, 2009 5:10pm Report this comment

At last, at long, long last,very late in the day and in all probability too late, Never Neather finally calls time and gets properly stuck into Dave for his failure to mount a serious, damaging and consistent opposition to this dreadful government.

Many, many months ago I posted that when failure arrives for Dave next year, the fault will lie as much with all those Tory journos who have over the past four years let him get away with all his pc, ultra green, Blue Labour posturing to the fury and disenchantment of his core vote and for very little conviction with those outside it.

Nicholas says he cannot understand how this vile, vicious, corrupt and incompetent can get away with still commanding a vote round 30% instead of being where it should be at about 3%. Well, Nicholas, it hasn't been too hard for them, when the principal priority of the Leader of the Opposition seems to be to win the Womans Own Prospective Son in Law of the Year competition - such a nice young man, never takes advantage of his opponent's weakness and never ever says a bad word about them, no matter what they say about him. In fact he actually raises three cheers for them and never even lets his friends say anything nasty about them either.

Not of course, Fraser, that it's entirely Dave's fault and here we get to the biggest mystery - that of the Mekon. For what we do know is that the Mekon is the master marketing strategist and that Dave does nothing that is not at his behest or with his approval. Indeed, hasn't the line consistently been that with Mekon's marketing wizardry and Boy George's political strategy genius behind him, Dave would inevitably lead us to a Tiberian utopia.

Yet neither you nor any other Tory journo ever, ever even makes mention of The Mekon, Fraser. So why is this? Have you been warned away? Are the Mekon and Mrs Mekon simply out of bounds to you reptiles?

Very, very strange, Fraser, especially when you were quite happy to register your disillusion and disenchantment with Boy George in your Screws page last week.

The sad and awful truth is that Britain's worst ever government has been faced by Britain's most feeble and lame opposition with an inadequate and nepotistic leadership and you and your lot Fraser have over the past four years done absolutely nowt to get them to either shape up or ship out.

When next Spring, either Brown wins or achieves at least a hung parliament, the only journalistic credibility will be with Heffer and Janet Daley.

Tiberius

December 6th, 2009 6:43pm Report this comment

So the blog's Big Beast steps out to test who's up for hook, line and sinker for tea on this Sunday in Advent.

In fact, it has been a feature recently (and certainly since this year's party conference season) that Cameroon sceptics are undergoing conversion. Irwin Stelzer, Jeff Randall, and Janet Daley have written more favourably about the Tories. Even Simon Heffer's vitriolic language has subsided, and has been replaced with at least an acknowledgent that Cameron may not after all be the idiot some like to portray him as.

One of the Tories often championed by Cameron's ctitics as a better prospect as leader is William Hague, presumably because they think he will be a tub-thumper, who could win a GE with policies promising to pull us out of the EU and despatch thousands of immigrants to the four corners of the earth. I went to a reception with him as guest last week, and he stated that he is only back in front line politics because he has seen the Cameron project as the way to go.

I'm rather flattered, TGF, seemingly to be named as an advocate of a utopia shared by William Hague. As for Fraser's Doubting Thomas persona, I suspect there some rather complex forces at work behind the scenes.

TGF UKIP

December 6th, 2009 7:34pm Report this comment

Tiberius, I'm sure you also believe that Wolves are going to win every game from now to the end of the season and will be competing in the Champions League next year (and yes, they've probably got as much chance as Liverpool have at the moment.)

As for William Hague, I'm sure that he really, really did mean every word he said at a reception and that the way he is portrayed in Private Eye's very unkind cartoon is very, very unfair.

Should be quite fun come election night and I sure look forward to your being round these parts then.

Tiberius

December 6th, 2009 9:18pm Report this comment

Election night is in the diary, mate, and I anticipate an outcome similar to Boris kicking out Ken.

I'm genuinely sorry about the Reds - it takes some doing to be as inconsistent as they are under Benitez and yet win the Champions League twice. As for WWFC, the revival started yesterday!

strapworld

December 6th, 2009 9:21pm Report this comment

Mr Nelson.

In the, perhaps forlorn, hope that you will eventually do what you promised on immigration, (a subject on which Cameron could score heavily!) may I suggest your research be directed to :-
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2009/12/uk-govt-ministers-given-list-of-forbidden-words-and-politically-correct-alternatives-for-discussing.html

RobC

December 6th, 2009 11:37pm Report this comment

Glenys Murphy - If your a tory voter I'm the Archbishop of Canterbury.

daniel maris

December 7th, 2009 12:35am Report this comment

I don't agree with this analysis.

I think the Tories allowed a policy fault line to develop which has given Brown the opportunity to pile drive through the "Eton" allegation.

The "fault line" was to give the impression that they were targetting public sector conditions of employment.

And of course there is some substance to the impression which is why Brown and co have been able to make some progress.

Cameron was ill advised on this.

Rather than "protecting the NHS budget" he should have concentrated on giving pledges that he is not seeking to devalue existing conditions of employment and - further - that he wants to see a return to proper pension provision in the private sector. It is an absolute scandal that capitalists have sought to divest themselves of responsibility for pension provision.

The Tories have only themselves to blame. I have no wish to see Labour triumph, but if the Tories want to be the party of all the people, then putting a bunch of old Etonians in charge is not a good idea.

Frank P

December 7th, 2009 12:38am Report this comment

I think the moderator liked my comment (3.19) so much that he decided to make a blockbuster of it. :-)

London Calling

December 7th, 2009 12:42am Report this comment

Well Fraser all I can say is David had better practise his upper cut with his
left hook...After he's eton of course, you cannot fight politics on an empty stomache...

Forget Eton, nobody cares,David should focus on the real issues that people care about and its a knock out ;)

Hysteria

December 7th, 2009 1:40am Report this comment

the worst government in years confronted by the least effective opposition. Economic meltdown coming our way -

What have we done to deserve this.........?

JohnAnt

December 7th, 2009 1:49am Report this comment

Perhaps Cameron's Achilles' heel is that he knows he's where he is because he went to Eton.
Boris, for example, was selected for Eton because he was exceptionally bright. Cameron was sent there by his parents for social reasons, and maybe - we can't know this - because he was not exceptionally bright, and Eton, like other public schools but more so, is able to push boys along so they waltz into Oxbridge. From there (via the public schools network at Oxford, which operates, albeit subtly, outside and above all others) it was his own ambition that did the rest after graduation, and laudably so. But with help from his in-laws.
Still - that could be a voice of conscience nagging him: that there are others more able than he is, but not with his advantages of a wealthy and socially well-connected family background.
This is not a political attack on Cameron, by the way. Simply an observation that his effectiveness as a Tory leader might be compromised by his vulnerability in this one area. We don't rate it much ourselves. But I imagine he does.

Minnie Ovens

December 7th, 2009 11:38am Report this comment

Yes, Mr Nelson, I think that sums it up aptly.
Vulture's points are well considered except that Cameron might look weak getting rid of Osborne at this point in time.
Mind you, he does look weak so what the hell!
And Cameron is weak on class because most of his close associates are of the same ilk.
Brown's jibe might be offensive to many but the Tory reaction is viscerally defensive.

Yarnesfromhorsham

December 7th, 2009 1:00pm Report this comment

With so many goals to score against NuLabour whether their failed policies/initiatives/lies etc Dave and the Tories generally seem to be missing the net.Could do better must do better - pull your socks up Dave or move over.

michael

December 7th, 2009 2:02pm Report this comment

Mind games... don't go there.

do your own thing WELL and keep busy.

charles hercock

December 7th, 2009 3:36pm Report this comment

It would be ajoke if it were not so serious.He is stabbing in the back those who could get him out of this hole.What happened to the brave visionary of 1997 or was he just the weak lackey of Blair we always suspected

Woody

December 7th, 2009 4:56pm Report this comment

Fraser
If the Labour Party win the next election, I hope you and your colleagues will take some share of the blame for some of your negative reporting over the last few months and no doubt in the future.
I am a working class Conservative and will vote Conservative no matter what, unlike all those FAIR-WEATHER Conservative voters.
I don't sit down and think what is in it for me, me, me, I always think what is best for the country (some people may find this hard to believe but nonetheless it is true). There are too many self-centred people who only care about themselves. I believe this is a Conservative country 'at heart' and socialism does not suit our way of life and our character.
You know very well when you are in opposition in some respect you are always on the back foot and there are still those fools out there who will be taken in by all the 'class warfare' especially those on benefits. They are not going to bite the hand that feeds them.
George Osborne has made some excellent speeches over the past year, especially the one after last year's budget but never gets the credit he deserves.
I can't be bothered to write anymore but I just hope I have made some people think before they open their mouths in future.
If you want a Conservative government, then start getting behind them.

Mulciber

December 7th, 2009 5:53pm Report this comment

Just a heartening observation from 'up north':
I know several anarchists who are so fed up with Labours obsession with rules and incompetance that they're going to vote Tory in spite of their issues with Thatcher...
DC's having smoked cannabis at Eton and not 'grassed up' his mates when caught has been a deciding factor in thier thinking.

PAUL GILBOY

December 9th, 2009 4:42pm Report this comment

I have to agree with every word Frazer; they go into a shell at the slightest hiccup. If they had an ounce of strategic nouse they would know
That labour is on the back foot losing the argument, no longer controlling the narrative, floundering in a situation they cannot influence.

These opinion polls reflect floating voters intention to vote conservative as most conservatives are still in denial and, are unwilling to admit they can trust David Cameron.

What the Conservative doubters need to understand that under our parliamentary system its winner takes all and, unless David Cameron emerges as the outright winner our Country will be sold down the river without even a fighting chance. They believe Hague & Cameron etal, will sell us to Europe for a love of power, but they forget that Cameron took us out of the most powerful Euro block and sat the conservatives with fringe parties that that have no power of influence. But they have principals and a love of their own countries, just like every conservative in the United Kingdom.

Sun Tzu wrote....every battle is won before it is fought and, that means we must be in a position where we can have chance to fight, power is the only chance we have and, if you undermine that chance you betray your nation.

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