In a world of their own
Fraser Nelson 2:51pmAs I suspected, Darling has cooked the figures by laughably unrealistic growth forecasts. He is predicting a sustained economic sprint that will mysteriously come to Britain the April after next. Table B1 of the PBR shows that he expects 3.25% growth every year for a whole four years: from April 2011 to April 2015.
How does this square with what the real world thinks? I blogged earlier what HM Treasury’s independent forecasts have to say. Robert Chote from the IFS has just been on TV saying the good news is that the structural deficit isn’t as big as it used to be. Little wonder, when you can concoct growth forecasts like this. Here is a graph, laying it out.

The subtext to this Budget is “securing the recovery”. It should be “once upon a time...”



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Naomi Muse
December 9th, 2009 2:59pm Report this commentEven with all that, Fraser, Darling let on that it was dire.
An admission of it being dire is a step in the right direction anyway.
Gordon Brown looked more uncomfortable in his skin than usual. He also wriggled more than he usually does, and obviously did not like what was being said by the man at his side.
Thought Osbourne did well though.
Now the winter of discontent will follow as the unions are already talking about balloting for strike action.
As to the bank bonuses, it was pure politics but might well have the law of unforseen circumstances rearing its head again.
The government Christmas card should have all the main contenders dancing away with the green and yellow fairies, and on absinthe, like the 30s.
thomas
December 9th, 2009 3:01pm Report this commentOnly when we have had shop keepers voted in will we have a sound economy (ie. people who know what a p&l looks like in the real world). This bunch could not make a profit from a swingers party......
Colin
December 9th, 2009 3:01pm Report this commentWhat does it really matter what he says? In any case, he's not aiming this crap at you, or anyone else capable of understanding it.
This fantasy land stuff is designed to impress most of the people who contributed to this morning's Radio 5 Live phone in.
Basically, the kind of people, who, by any right measure, are too thick to be allowed to vote, never mind understand left wing fiscal chicanery.
peter
December 9th, 2009 3:12pm Report this commentI can only hope that Darling and his cohorts are taken to the cleaners by Cameron and his, otherwise there will be nothing worth voting for next Spring.
Nick
December 9th, 2009 3:16pm Report this commentIn the boom years of 2000-2007 UK GDP "only" averaged 2.5%. How can Darling reasonably think that growth over the next three years is going to be 75 basis points stronger than that ?
Global deleveraging of the financial system, consumers paying down debt, governments all over western world needing to cut back and repair national balance sheets - it is nonsense to think that in such an environment the UK can grow faster than in did in the noughties.
Stepney
December 9th, 2009 3:50pm Report this commentOther examples from History.
"We take these decisions from a position of strength" Adolf Hitler, choosing between a Bourbon Cream and a Jammy Dodger, before, eventually, deciding on both, April 30th 1945.
"We take these decisions from a position of strength". Chief Secretary of King Cnut's board of Coastal Management Advisors circa February 1028.
"We take these decisions from a position of strength". General Haig, ordering the infantry to walk towards the German guns, July 1st 1916.
Chuck Unsworth
December 9th, 2009 4:38pm Report this commentDespite the general rowdiness in the chamber, I get the feeling that the Labour benches are exhausted and are now resigned to the coup de grace. They must know by now that it's certainly going to happen, so perhaps best to get it over with. As it stands it is a lingering death without palliative care.
A surprising exodus from their side during the PBR, some might even regard it as discourteous - not that they'd understand such civilities. I think many have just given up and are simply going through the motions. Others are exhibiting Pavlov's phenomenon.
Darling's speech today will have done nothing to revive their spirits, and the Conservatives are very wise to carefully examine the detail before mounting a full response. Osborne's reply was good enough as an initial comment and set Darling's views in the wider political context. But this PBR will not be well received by the voting public who understand that this is just postponing some of the inevitable (and excruciating) pain.
Dennis Sewell
December 9th, 2009 4:57pm Report this commentIs there any truth in the rumour that the Treasury has outsourced its growth forecasting to the CRU at the University of East Anglia?
Boudicca
December 9th, 2009 7:00pm Report this commentBingo tax is down ... appealing to the core voters or a desperate hope that we'll all head on down to the Bingo Hall and win enough to pay back Labour's £175billion of debt?
Tony Gee
December 10th, 2009 11:08am Report this commentBingo is the most popular pastime in Scotland - QED.
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