Only Ireland and Iceland have had a bigger debt explosion than the UK
Peter Hoskin 6:30pmAn argument put forward by some Labour types is that we're not really facing a debt crisis at all. "Yes, the national debt levels are bad," they say, "but we started off at a low level in comparison to other countries, so we can absorb the deficits we're racking up."
Well, you can take issue with the idea that we had "low levels" of debt before the crisis kicked in – but the real mistake this statement makes is to ignore the rate at which we've accumulated debt. As the latest OECD data shows, UK debt is set to rise faster than any other nation save for Iceland and Ireland:

The picture would probably look even worse if you accounted for all the off-balance sheet fiddles, like the toxic bank assets and PFI. And this is why the markets are worried: the UK's current debt levels are scary enough, but the trajectory we're on is absolutely terrifying. It wouldn't matter too much if they could be sure that the brakes are going to be firmly applied. But, alas, there's no sign that the current government are going to do that.



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Sally Chatterjee
December 14th, 2009 6:40pm Report this comment"An argument put forward by some Labour types..."
Surely Labour have forfeited any chance to even debate public finance? Brown's tragic vandalism means Labour wouldn't know sound money if it walked up to them and slapped them in the face.
TGF UKIP
December 14th, 2009 7:12pm Report this commentPolitically it's almost irrelevant in how bad the debt figures are since the Cameron Green's are so demonstrably useless in transforming them into political scoring opportunities.
paul holdstock
December 14th, 2009 8:16pm Report this commenti fear that the actual cost of PFI schemes/scams will tip the uk into a credit rating downgrade.
quite how brown and co. expect to get away with the treasonous mis-management of the economy, once ejected from government baffles me.
the public appetite for some form of vicious revenge will surely lead to a sad end for all concerned.
saddleworth
December 14th, 2009 9:16pm Report this commentThis message has not and will not reach Planet Brown. He will be much more inclined to listen to Talking Balls - who looks like he is leaving Planet Brown to move towards a new planet ouside of the Galaxy.
But is anyone else listening to this type of financial message? The financial markets appear to be holding off only until they understand what is proposed post-election. Does any party with a realsitic chance of being in involved in a post-election government have a plan to address this?
Mark M
December 14th, 2009 9:35pm Report this commentWell, what an argument for low taxes. The Swiss national debt won't even increase. And they say Direct Democracy doesn't work - I would say the Swiss people have done a damn sight better than our elected leaders.
Short the UK
December 14th, 2009 9:45pm Report this commentCan you organise a chart that shows the trade surplus/deficit of each country. Be interesting to see how the UKs stands up relative to the others?
If we were running a trade surplus there might be some hope, but as we run a deficit we continue to live like an aristocrat. One day our creditors will take away the plastic or hit us with a penal interest rate. That day of reckoning is getting closer and our debt fuelled lifestyle will be shown to be an illusion.
Who is going to carry the can for the recent hyper-inflation in UK property prices, this is the root of our problems.
Dennis Churchill
December 14th, 2009 10:07pm Report this commentStories like this one:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235604/Single-mother-living-2-6m-mansion--Labours-housing-benefit-crackdown.html
From the Daily Mail mean tax payers won’t accept increases which they see as being wasted.
We are now, like the U.S much too diverse, and simply do not identify closely enough with each other, to be prepared to fund a lavish welfare state.
Cameron is not going to frighten the large numbers of public sector workers by stating the obvious: the state sector must be radically reduced and welfare payments of all types reduced to safety net standards.
bert
December 14th, 2009 10:32pm Report this commentdespite all of this, Labour are just 5 percentage points from an overall majority at the next GE.
will the public panic and stick with nanny? God help every man, woman and child if they do win.
In2minds
December 14th, 2009 10:37pm Report this commentLike father like son; go to the link in the Hoskin post and you find yourself at the website 'Left foot forward'. It's worth a good read for a laugh as it's run by Will Straw. His Dad Jack was once praised by Barbara Castle for his “low cunning”, it runs in the family!
Frugal Dougal
December 14th, 2009 11:01pm Report this commentWorse than Spain, Denmark and America I can take; but KOREA?
Jeremy
December 14th, 2009 11:02pm Report this commentOh dear.
How are we going to get ourselves out of this situation? I mean...can we get ourselves out of it in a civilized, reasonable and responsible manner?
The Labour government is not so much skating on thin ice, as levitating above the abyss by the simple expedient of not acknowledging its existence. Clearly this cannot go on forever. Nor, probably, for very long at all. And how much time, pray, do we have?
gareth
December 14th, 2009 11:02pm Report this commentCome On Gordon - you can do it.
I saw 2012 and it was a rubbish film, unbelievable and so PC.
But we could have a real life earth shaking event if you get back in - worth watching - the truth is far stranger than fiction.
Come on everybody, Vote for Gordon and watch the fireworks!!
Dirty Euro
December 14th, 2009 11:21pm Report this commentThe USA has higher debt and does not even own their banks.
Bang socialism works.
wrinkled weasel
December 14th, 2009 11:52pm Report this commentBeing a Swissiephile, I am fascinated to see that, whilst Britain and Switzerland have similar figures in column one, the Swiss projection actually shows a decrease. If anybody can shed light on this, I would be very grateful.
Olaf Rye
December 15th, 2009 12:24am Report this commentThe disastrous levels of public debt in Canada were reduced over a decade of public spending control coupled with the most benign economic cycle since the 1950s supervening. We can get out of this downward spiral, but it takes public and political will. Unfortunately, I do not think that either exists: notice the apologists for socialism here, attempting to distract people from the fundamental issue of complete mismanagement of the economy by the state and its inherent inability to live within its means. It is this vile sense of class resentment that will return Britain to its customary place as a result of Labour government policies: the Sick Man of Europe.
Amadeus Plonquer
December 15th, 2009 1:27am Report this commentwrinkled weasel - to answer your question, Switzerland is in Europe but not in the EU.
ALSO: In Switzerland they make bankers welcome. Many of our City bankers (and their banks) will be heading for Switzerland soon to swell their coffers with more tax revenue. This leaves the British people very happy to have punished those nasty bankers and perfectly ready to pay the additional tax needed to fill the fiscal black hole they leave behind.
emil
December 15th, 2009 7:49am Report this commentA disappointing #3, but Brown is trying ever harder to hit the number one spot by Christmas with every foreign trip, and off the cuff pledge.
El Sid
December 15th, 2009 6:54pm Report this commentI know I've said this before, but the reason our debt looked so good before the crunch was the accounting treatment of our sovereign wealth fund from North Sea oil. Or rather, the fact that we never set one up and to date some £157bn (see http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/corporate_tax/table11_11.xls ) has flowed into the general coffers. That's about 15% of GDP on its own, never mind the fact that even if you just assume it's been invested in gilts all this time, it would be a bit more than Norway's £200bn SWF - which is about right, as we started with about as much North Sea oil as they have but have extracted more of it.
Yet Brown has spent it. Yep, all our North Sea oil money has gone. In fact it's far worse than that. He spent our SWF once in the second half of his Chancellorship, 2002-7. He then spent it again in the first 2 years of his premiership, and now wants to make spending all our North Sea oil money an annual event. Someone needs to tell him - there was only one North Sea.
Kevin Lynch
December 21st, 2009 5:54pm Report this commentIntresting table. It also highlights the myth that the French and Germans are the exemplars of Eurozone prudence, in stark contrast to the Irish, for example. As the table shows, the French and Germans breached the Eurozone Debt/GDP criteria even in the good times. And they lecture others on deficit management...? Arrogant, yes; surprising, no.
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