The Tories should resist any temptation to go soft on debt

Coney Weston

The Tories must be strong and stick to their task - no watering down. Quite frankly if the country fall for the nonsense from Brown and balls and vote Labour back in then as a country we will deserve what we get which will not be pretty and I, for one, will be on the first boat out of here before the whole of Britain sinks into a sea of debt.

Peter From Maidstone

I can't find any link to the actual poll data, no list of questions asked or % of error. So it is very hard to comment. If the question was loaded towards reflection on the depth of the mess we are in then the responders might well be led to think that no-one can easily get us out of it and so would not rate Osborne higher. If the question was 'who would be a better Chancellor?' then that might get a different response altogether. But with only comment and not data at the Guardian site it is very hard to say.

core voter

Brown

DavidDP

Hmm. But what happens if they do that and then go down to defeat? How does it help the economy to have either a hung parliament or yet another Labour term.

The Tories need to be strategically smart.

Publius

"But I'd be keen to hear CoffeeHousers' views."

Ignore it. The poll is bollocks. Far too vague to have any use, even by the vague standard that is typical of all polling. Stupid people asking stupid questions of stupid people.

Vulture

It's hardly Osbers'fault, but the fact that he looks like a schoolboy who's been made to sit on the naughty step for playing with himself under the desk doesn't help us take him seriously as un homme des monnaies.

Apparently a Tory poster in his Tatton constituency reading LABOUR ISN'T WORKING was defaced by some wag with the addition:
OSBORNE's NEVER WORKED. Cruel, but true.

I don't like the man's slavish Europhilia, but the Tories should wheel out old Ken Clarke : he has the right mixture of festive avuncular good cheer and a hard economic head. Osbers should be put in charge of election strategy. Apparently he's quite good at that.

strapworld

It appears to me that Osborne is the only one trying to put the boot in. Cameron is still attempting to get into number ten by being 'just an ordinary kind of guy' He is not putting the boot into Brown and I think he should step aside now.

There is another thought and that is Cameron does not want to win now because of the debt. Perhaps he does not want to be in the seat when the IMF come in and for him to be 'blamed'! Hague gives me the impression he has given up and the rest of the front bench, apart from Gideon, are almost mute!

Perhaps people have actually woken up to the fact that Cameron aint the man!

Mark Pasola

The Tories should be telling the truth about the painful which the country needs to take and the sacrifices that everyone will have to make if we are to be rescued from the decades of relative and absolute decline that are implied by the debt projections.

If that costs them the election and a minority Labour government or coalition is returned which fails to get to grips with the scale of the problem there will be a colossal economic crisis with loss of our credit rating, a collapse in the currency, drastic overdue cuts in public spending, public sector strikes etc. In short a return to the 1970s. Expect a vote of confidence and that government to fall within two years.

And that is just what the country needs - conditions propitious to what one might call neo-Thatcherism, if only we can find a leader with the stature for the job. Daniel Hannan, your time may come.

AndyinBrum

reduce the tax on ciggies and Actively encourage all the population to start smoking. Not only a great revenue earner but solves the upcoming aging population problem we'll be facing in the next ten years or so

Rob

>>The most obvious conclusion to draw is that some of the public are getting nervous about the task which lies ahead – that there is, as the Guardian puts it, "continuing public reluctance to accept the tough choices that balancing the government's books will require."

Well that's one theory though hardly the most obvious. The Conservative party are suffering in the polls not because the public shrink from cuts (on the contrary I think there's a general recognition that cuts are needed) but because a broad swathe of the country don't want to see the Tories in power. Not only are there too many bad memories of the last time they were in power but the Tories under Cameron seem unable or unwilling to carry the public with them.

Lest this be regarded as an anti-Tory screed let me hasten to point out that I think the same attitude also applies to Labour (the LibDems, as usual, are nowhere in this).

I'm increasingly of the belief that the two major parties are in for a big shock come this election. The time when the public's patience with one party would exhaust itself & they'd simply vote for the other one - I think that's gone. Public patience over expenses, Europe, a generalised, widespread feeling of incompetence & 'they're all alike', has wearied the public more than I think most politicians & those in the media realise although the polls are starting to clue people in that Something Is Up.

Now I don't think this means that a fringe party is going to be voted into power - I don't see that happening - but it seems to me that the public has given up on both major parties. How that will play out is anybody's guess but when the next election comes I don't think it's going to be business as usual. We're all well aware now that there are alternatives for our votes.

Dave B

I think the pollsters samples are being distorted by unpredictable behaviour during the Christmas period.

I think January polls will show a mysterious return to the 2009 norm, Tories in the 40s, Labour in the 20s.

R King

Better to highlight the faults in the labour tax and spend policy.
Look at the announcement today for the new Chinooks. More work for the Americans!!!
Where's the finance coming from?
It's coming from the closure of airforce bases and loss of BRITISH JOBS.

Why aren't we hearing anything from the tories???

At the moment labour are running rings round them.

Wake Team Cameron!!!

Chuck Unsworth

Well his performance has been slightly uncertain (granted, improved greatly recently), but the Conservatives just need to take a hard line. The public would prefer to have clarity - a simple message - saying that we are in for very rough times. Better to get the pain over with early rather than prolonging the agony. Cameron can set out his hopes and aspirations for the future, but he and Osborne need to be brutally honest about the truly dire state of the accounts.

What they should be telling the electorate is that Labour are whistling in the dark, hoping against hope and defying all reason that things will not be so bad.

If you're on the Titanic it makes very little difference which deck you're on. Stateroom or Steerage, the cruel sea awaits. So take action now.

Ian Walker

Perhaps this is one of the very few downsides to the lack of detail in the policies (despite the wailing of the bored press, I understand and endorse that strategy) but I expect that while members of the public can support the broad brush statements, Labour's "helping their rich friends" attack is probably putting doubts in their minds as to how much the detail will affect them.

Of course, once the detail is out in the open, then the doubt should evaporate. However, for the time being it emboldens the PLP and the Labour PPCs, so perhaps let Billy drop a detailed proposal on Hatty's head on Wednesday just to make sure the narrative swings back to the Tories.

HJ

The Tories certainly shouldn't water down their spending cuts, but they do need to start being more positive about what they hope to achieve in the long run. Take their policy on schools. It's brilliant and revolutionary but how many people know anything about it? Cameron and co. need to start giving people something to look forward to aswell as being realistic about the vast spending cuts needed.

DavidDP

Certain people may also want to consider just why Labour were gunning so hard for Osborne. As a hint, they wouldn't waste time on someone they thought wasn't doing them damage......

Moraymint

The fundamental problem is public ignorance of the nature, scope and scale of the UK's financial problem.

My experience, day to day, is that an alarmingly high proportion of citizens are failing to appreciate the catastrophe-around-the-corner if our political class is not given a mandate to avert looming socio-economic catastrophe.

The Tories need to invest heavily in a programme of public education setting out just how desperate a mess we're in. Such a programme must not be patronising or alarmist. However, it must be clear, accurate, unemotional and brief; it must appear frequently and become part of the public's conscience in the run up to the election. It must point out the consequences of the government not gripping the situation and fixing it. Importantly, the programme must make constant references to the blame for the unholy mess we're in lying squarely with the Labour Party in government.

Only when a critical mass of the British public understands and accepts the disaster that has been 12 years of economic incompetence underpinned by unreconstructed Marxism-by-stealth will the Tories stand a chance of securing power and, moreover, a mandate to fix Britain.

I'm not confident that this will happen because I'm not confident that the Tories are passionate enough about destroying the Labour Party and then making the fundamental changes needed to our economy and society if the UK is to stand any hope at all of prospering over the next decade.

For as long as the future political and economic policies of the UK are unclear/uncertain (as is the case now), our political class may be deemed to be failing the good citizens of this country.

My personal message to the Tories, as the proverbial lifelong Conservative voter, is to bloody well get a grip soon - or risk a guaranteed socio-economic nightmare over the next 5 - 10 years.

The scale of the Labour Party's treasonable incompetence is quite breathtaking.

dom

Does noone else find it amazing that it now rests on the main opposition party to electorially damage itself for the good of the country, while the current government seems to only act to screw the country over to scorch the earth for the next administration? Is there no mechanism that can be used immediately to stop this madness?

denis cooper

We need to think not just how we're going to survive and escape from this recession, but how we're going to survive the next recession.

That means going beyond a plan to cut the budget deficit, to a plan to balance the budget and then run surpluses for long enough to cut the accumulated debt.

Which necessarily means gradually reducing public expenditure as a share of GDP, preferrably down to around 30% or lower.

Otherwise, even if we survive this episode in a decade or so we'll go into the next recession in an even weaker position, and that would very likely finish us off.

Short the UK

Cameron and Osborne have to go hard, no triangulating, they have to stay on message and explain the fiscal problems we face.

The media will be in charge of the meme and for the sake of the country this "elite" must face the harsh realities and explain to the public what would happen if it is left to the IMF to fix our problems.

The Tory front bench must attack, attack, attack, don't hold back.

Just imagine what will happen to the Debt Junkies if we lose control of the price of money!!! The only reason the Debt Junkies are not voting for the Tories in a landslide is because interest rates are so low and the BoE is financing public spending with its money printing, you can kick the can down the road but one day you run out of road. Seemingly if/when the Gilts market blows up it will be at the short end, all eyes on the 2yr.

Cuffleyburgers

My thinking has changed a litle on this. Until recently I would have said that he main priority was to win the election, and Cameron had to steer a careful course in order to make sure of doing that.

I don't know what as brought about this change, possibly the uncertainty of these polls, or a general fatigue with being lied to, but I now think that the tories should say the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

They should run a campaign based on complete openness about what is required to fix the public finances. No more ad hominem attacks on Brown or sneering at Balls. Ignore them. But be completely honest and present a proper, considered plan.

They should win. If they do they have the mandate to end all mandates.

if they lose it will be because the electorate are stupid. People get the government they deserve. They voted for Labour because they were lied to. Despite everything the idea that the government lies to the people is still rather shocking in our dear country.

Very few people realise that heath took us into the EU on a false prospectus, knowingly seeking to mislead, because he felt that was the right thing to do.

A far worse transgression than Blair's war, but no worse than Brown's Lisbon.

These are truly desperate times, and I believe we are in sight of a back swan moment when the British economy will not recover for a generation.

The message must be that there's no muddling through this time, no making do and mending. This is a DISASTER and only desperately painful remedies will do the job.

See the Irish budget? That wouldnt even start to fix the British fiscal mess.

That's how bad it is and that is the message which must be conveyed, coolly, calmly but resolutely.

Man in a Shed

Its important that a clear and constant message on debt is put out. Only then will people trust us to do the surgery. ( Imagine a surgeon who couldn't quite make up their mind which bit of you to cut out, or if it was necessary at all - would you let them within reach of you ? ).

Also remember Brown will copy any measures announced, and then ask the question and then what ?

What matters happens in the three weeks before the election when Brown can no longer do his tactical dithering. Also the Lib Dem vote will firm up, mostly at Labours expense, as an election campaign hots up.

We need to mark our targets, look to the front and only fire when we see the whites of their eyes.

AGM

They should increase the personal allowance to (say) £10,000 and increase VAT to 20%. That would help counter the proposition that the "poor" get hit by VAT - encourage "work" - get rid of the poverty trap.

Ant

Would a government be able to see out a full 5 year term with complete economic collapse occurring?

If so, it might be a good election for the Tories to lose...

Then either two scenarios may play out..
Firstly, the economy implodes, hits rock bottom and keeps digging. Another GE is called, which the Tories easily win, giving them carte blanche to do what they like, without the growing reticence of the public to cuts etc...

Secondly, (and, granted, very very unlikely), what ever Labour decide to do actually works. Whatever the Tories may have done, would by implication not have worked, leaving them exceeding unpopular, and possibly being out of power for a long time again.
At least they could then go into the next GE without being too unpopular, and by then the public may be even more tired of Labour, and give them boot...(as Per 1997 - its not the economy...stupid)

Fergus Pickering

What do you mean 'Osborne's never worked,? Do you or do you not suppose an MP works? And don't be SILLY. On that basis anyone who sitsvdown when they do a job, and that's most people, doesn't work either. The only workers are hole diggers and tattie howkers. If you want to say, 'Osborne's never been poor', then that would be true, and also true of Brown, Darling, Mandelson, Straw... how much further down do you want me to go. And these attacks on the way Osborne LOOKS are simply unworthy, as are attacks on Brown based on his poor eyesight, or Pickles because he is fat. Osborne has the right idea, does he not? Do you think so, or don't you? The elctorate are as big bloody fools as they were in the days of Lord Salisbury, who utterly despised them. I despise our electorate for electing this lot in 2005 because Michael Howard supposedly looked like Dracula. And if we do it AGAIN because Cameron and Osborne went to the wrong schools... pfaugh! We shgould be ashamed of ourselves. AS SHOULD ANYONE WHO VOTES ANYTHING BUT TORY from now on. You are betraying your country. Not that that will mean anything to you if you are a lafty, but a UKIP persom might just consider. Might just.

Dean

I can't believe the naivety of this article. Most people who are not committed party ideologues tend to equate spending cuts with job losses (particularly in the public sector,) and it is these votes that are now starting to swing away from the Tories.

What lessons can we draw from this? First, the Tories need to be very careful (much more so than to date) about how they handle the deficit/debt reduction issue. It is not the winning hand they evidently believe it to be. Secondly, Cameron needs to rein in the Thatcherite old guard (which unfortunately seems to include Osborne) who are starting once again to voice old prejudices about public sector employees which will harm the Tories' poll ratings. Thirdly, the Tories need to adopt a more sensitive tone and show more sympathy for people who are at present struggling because they have lost jobs or perceive their jobs to be at risk.

This much should be obvious, but the fact that it needs saying at all shows that the Tories are still failing to join up the dots on economic policy. What they perceive as a strength - being prudent and fiscally tough - is actually rather offputting to many voters (not just Labour loyalists). I'm not saying this is right - obviously the Tories are correct to be concerned about the deficit - but it is political reality.

Moraymint

Sorry, I don't want to be a blog-hog. However, in my earlier post I ommitted to say that the Conservative Party must, above all else, be the party of individual freedom and wealth creation.

It's all very well setting out to deal with the national debt and uncontrolled state spending (always the hallmarks and legacy of Labour in government). However, fundamentally we need to live in a society that has liberty and sustainable prosperity at its heart. Prosperity that respects and supports the less fortunate; prosperity that respects the environment; but prosperity nonetheless.

The British people need to realise that the Labour Party doesn't do freedom and prosperity; it despises both.

Vulture

Fergus P@ I'm sorry ( and I really am sorry) but image matters hugely. In the TV and Internet age, having the right image is probably the most important qualification that a successful politician needs. This is probably why our politics are so debased, with such useless people running them. So I regret it, but that is the truth.

Few will deny, for example, that Obama's hugely successful campaign was based on his image and little else - with the malign consequences we are now enduring. Ditto with Bliar. And one of Bruin's many problems (apart from his flawed personality and total incompetence at everything except shoring up his personal base and doing down his party rivals) is that his image is that of a weird, ugly, grumpy, bad tempered, malevolent, mean old Scots git. Not terribly appealing to English voters.

And Osbers, like him or loathe him, comes over, as I have said, as a smirking schoolboy with no experience of the real world at all. Two things set that image in stone: 1) that unfortunate pic of him in close proximity with a black prostitute and some coke; 2) that equally unfortunate acceptance of an invite on board Oleg's yacht in company with Nat Rothschild and Peter Mandelson. (Peter Mandelson FFS!)

Now, Osbers may be all that you say, with the right policies and all that, but for most voters he is and will remain a louche, rich, shifty little boy with some very dodgy friends. That's just the way it s, Fergus. The Tories seem cursed with sound chaps with little public appeal (IDS, Hague, Howard) and rich PR smoothies...also with little public appeal (Team Dave).

Alfred T Mahan

The problem is that Cameron and Osborne for years distanced themselves too much from what the man in the street thinks is Conservatism - spending cuts and small government being the most important areas, but there are others, such as crime. Years of talking about “sharing the proceeds of growth” have taken them in exactly the opposite direction to what has been required for the good of the country, and that realisation has now dawned on a large part of the electorate. Having “betrayed” Conservative principles, and been behind voters in their acceptance of the need for stringent financial discipline, it’s hardly surprising that they’re seen as opportunists who don’t really have a principled vision of what’s required.

They set out to ape New Labour, which is now deeply unpopular, and can’t complain when voters take them at face value.

Hawkeye

I find it interesting that BOTH the main parties are getting more and more worried about the upcoming election. Good!

Dom said: "while the current government seems to only act to screw the country over to scorch the earth for the next administration? Is there no mechanism that can be used immediately to stop this madness?"

As things stand, if Labour do get back in it will be a minority administration and it will not be too long until someone from the unions or the far left holds it to ransom and forces a no-confidence vote. Then it is election time again and the second election will be decisive.

The tories need to set out their austerity stall and if they fail to get a majority then they should let Labour back in. Another six months of Brown should finish Labour. I shall watch with interest from somewhere abroad.

Gawain

The situation is a very difficult one. I wish the "public" was a little bit nervous about the task ahead. From what I see a large number of people have just stuck their fingers in their ears and are singing la la la la to make the horrible world go away. This is reinforced by the almost constant Labour spin declaring what a wonderful job Brown/Balls have done. If you listen to it you would think that they have saved the banking industry and the economy and things will be a lot worse under the Tories. I wish I new how to counteract this unrealistic fantasy. Its obvious that the Conservative front bench haven't yet. My view is that they shouldn't soften the message as things are likely to get nasty when the bills come in and if they win power they will need a mandate to clear the mess up.

Fed Up

I wouldn't be suprised if we had a hung parliment in 2010. So many people both on the DSS and in public sector have so much to lose. They will believe that NuLabour will protect them. Unfortunately they are wrong.
Who ever wins power at the next election will have to be savage otherwise the IMF will mandate it when we go cap in hand.
I think a bit of honesty will be appreciated. Tories might as well go the whole hog and spell it out - let UK decide. As it stands both parties are throwing the same rubbish around about ring fencing. Let's be honest ring fencing isn't going to happen.

TomTom

It is irrelevant. People are simply fed up of shadow boxing. There is a limit to hype people can handle. Noone thinks MPs have a clue and so many have had fingers in the cash box.

When they pledge a 20% cut in Ministerial salaries and donate it to a hospice or something similar people might feel there is some point. Lee Iacocca was paid $1/year to rescue Chrysler - time to see some frugality among politicians.

If public spendin cuts started at the top of public corporations including the BBC there would be some sense that the game is real, not simply another shell game to sucker the public.

Danko

Dom - Yes, two things.

First, the Labour backbenchers could do the honourable thing and organize a vote of no confidence in their own Government.

Second - Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth, could call Brown in and demand his resignation > constitutionally she still could, however it may upset Polly and her set and would cause a terrible amount of problems for the Monarchy in the short to medium term.

Personally I think either could be sold as being for the benefit of the country.

Ian C

The poll highlights that alot of people still do not believe that we are in a mess. Look at the Xmas spending that is going on. And the Cameron/Osbourne message since the conference has been what people do not want to hear. The beneficiaries are the Lib Dems who they are finding hard to dislodge.

While it is the right message it has been put across too starkly. It needs projecting against a warmer and recognisable background - a vision that the state will always be there but it must be turned over so that it serves its people, not the other way around.

By March they will have it right(ish), at least more right than the bleak mid-winter feeling coming from across Westminster at present. Every sound must be made positive. Just waht Cameron is accused of expertise in doing.

G Butler.

The Tories need to take a few tips from Ronald Reagan.
Amongst the economic mire we find ourselves in, they have to offer hope.

A message of 'vote for pain and misery' is hardly an appealing message, despite reality dictating that this will be the case. The Tories need to offer positive hope of how things will get better under a Tory govt. That their tough fiscal approach will lead to faster economic growth and greater job creation, while the Labour party is a threat to your job and Britain’s economy.

As Reagan said "Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
The answer is obvious, but only a positive message of hope will ensure the majority vote for change.

Jeremy

I haven't even heard Cameron or Osborne during this entire debt crisis - so clearly their voices and their message (whatever that might be) have not penetrated so far as to reach me. Perhaps they need to speak a little more assertively, a little more clearly and a little more frequently.

denis cooper

Somebody says that Cameron and Osborne must be "brutally honest", while somebody else says that "the tories should say the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth".

Sorry, but these are leading figures in the Tory party, and nobody can get into that position by being honest, brutally or otherwise.

Or by telling any part of the truth other than the parts which happen to be temporarily convenient - supplemented by half truths and straight lies as required.

As with all three of the main polticial parties, only unscrupulous and accomplished liars need apply for a senior position in the Tory party, and as Cameron and Osborne have built their careers on lies and deceit it would be totally unrealistic to expect them to now suddenly become honest men.

Our political system is dominated by three corrupt and degenerate political gangs; rather than the cream of our society rising to the top, they ensure that the immoral scum rises while the cream is filtered out.

There's a word for this kind of system, and it's not "democracy", or even "aristocracy", but "kakistocracy".

oldtimer

Brown obviously believes that the Labour "investment" vs Tory "cuts" line is the route to electoral salvation. Cameron and co should welcome a fight on this battle ground.

In the first place, the UK deficit is, as Cameron puts it, "a clear and present danger". That view is shared by most commentators in the media and the city (the Mirror and McGuire excepted). The Darling/Brown PBR totally failed to deal with the issue - in fact it made it worse. The Conservatives need to continue to make this point ad nauseum. It should not take much imagination to liken the national debt problem to a personal debt problem when the credit card is maxed out. In fact I think that Osborne has already used this analogy - just keep on doing it.

The second leg should be tax reform to promote growth and real jobs, not the make work schemes pushed by Brown/Balls. Cameron and co have made a start on this. No doubt they will wish to keep some powder dry until the election campaign. Meantime they should hammer the point that it is business risk takers and business risk investment that creates growth and jobs - as history reveals time and time again.

Ultimately this country will get the government it deserves. Better to make it a clear and unequivocal choice. If the evidence of the BA cabin workers heads in the sand strike threat is anything to go by, this approach may not produce a Conservative win.

A Labour win or hung Parliament would, I believe, trigger a major funding crisis and the propsect of a further early general election. In such a situation the Conservatives need to be ready with the solutions that such circumstances demand.

Hysteria

Here's a thought

at the time of the leadership contest we were in a very different place politically and (some thought) economically. Although many posters may not like it, the election of DC made sense - the country was bumbling along in blissful ignorance and the "right" had no credible person to confront New Labour who had effectively convinced the electorate that they were a middle-ground party.

Now - desperate times call for desperate measures - and maybe DC is the man that fits both scenarios. But were we to have a leadership election now, would he be the best choice? I think perhaps not.

So I am coming to the view that either, DC is keeping all the tough rhetoric for the election campaign, or he is not up to the job. If the latter, then the best option will be for a Labour victory, the bailiffs come in (and Labour gets the blame) while the Conservatives can figure out where they stand. In this world we may actually be able to make a centre-right party worthy of the name.

Moraymint

Hysteria, I share your general uncertainty about Cameron's credentials. I really do want to believe that Cameron has the skills and attributes to lead us out of Gordon Brown's astonishing mess of a legacy. I hope that Cameron's hiding his light under a bushel for now; however, he's cutting it a bit fine if he wants to galavanise strong public support for the desperately difficult task he faces.

If I had to declare my hand right now, I'd say that Cameron wasn't up to the job; he needs to prove the likes of me wrong very soon.

Graham Skipton

Come on Cameron, come forward with something constructive that you are going to do, alternatively sit down and fade away.

Peter From Maidstone

He needs to prove it to me to. I am not a natural Tory voter and he is fast losing his shine as far as I am concerned. If he is not going to offer anything different to New Labour - and I am not sure he is anymore - then I am not sure I can vote for him. More of the same but with a different face is not democracy.

Thortung

Referendum...

stephen bennetts

The problem at the moment is that Labour are setting the agenda and are leading events.The Tories performance at the moment in Parliament is half hearted, just going through the motions of an opposition without any real ideas that are different to Labour.

Hysteria

muses......

I wonder what the researchers are saying in Central Office - is it "good grief, look at the green ink brigade in CH - we can ignore that lot as we prepare Dave for a possibly slim victory"

or

"Oh my - we need to get our act together because the natives are getting restless.."

Would love to know what the political machine really thinks (rather than what they want us to think they think....)

TGF UKIP

Poor old James, he simply can't bring himself to mention that the ICM Guardian poll had the Tory lead down again to 9% and with an increasing number of other polls having the Tory lead in single figures it is becoming increasingly obvious that not only was the ComRes 17% lead the blip but that the political momentum has shifted decidedly to Labour.

What is obviously even more painful for James is to face up to why this is. It isn't public nervousness about the task ahead as he likes to assert, it is simply the Tory inability to connect the dots and bring home to people just what Brown's deficit and debt mean for them. In short the problem as usual lies with his mates' uselessness when it comes to political communication.

Now this of course is something which it is impossible for the house mag hacks to say since they have spent the past four years telling us not just how brilliant Dave was, but what a brilliant pair the the Tories were lucky enough to have as master political strategist and political communications genius in Boy George (trusted by only one in four according to the YouGov poll) and the Mekon.

Indeed, James can I remind you how you rang the bells in celebration on Hilton's return from California to lay the ground for the then certain Tory victory. Oh dear, and now you daren't even mention him.

Unless, which seems most unlikely, the Clique can massively raise their game it looks as though the lead is going to continue to shrink beyond the point where the Tories can even be the largest party in a hung parliament. If that does turn out to be the outcome then Dave and his Clique will not only have made Brown's position impregnable they will have ensured his passage into the pantheon of Labour legend for having seen off, against all the odds, the hated Tory toffs.

The recriminations then against not only the Clique but all their journo mates who flag-waved for them doesn't bear thinking about or perhaps it does! Indeed, I'm quite looking forward to it.

At least it will have killed off the Tory left for good and then when the economy and the Brown government collapses, we can again have a Conservative Party with a conservative as Leader ready to form a proper Conservative government.

TGF UKIP

Sorry, just realized this post was by Pete Hoskin and not our beloved Political Editor - whoops, twisted the wrong tail. The core still applies though.

Pete Hoskin

TGF: James didn't write this - I did! So the failure to mention the 9 point gap is all mine - but there wasn't any reason behind it other than I was most struck by the figure I've pulled out above.