Black Wednesday Mark II?
Peter Hoskin 1:31pmDo check out this excellently-researched blog post from the think-tank Open Europe. It details their finding that, as of yesterday, the pound has fallen by more over Brown's premiership than it did on Black Wednesday. And there could be worse to come. As Open Europe put it:
"If the current trend continues the pound will be down about 18-20% by Brown’s first anniversary. Brown's Black Wednesday may be happening more slowly compared to Lamont's - but it could be bigger."
Here's their neat graphic, with the Brown era represented by the pink line and the Lamont era by the blue line:
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Chris Clark
March 18th, 2008 2:06pm Report this commentConsidering Coffee House's campaign against Brown's misuse of statistics, this is pretty low. In fairness, while "Brownies" tend to appear manipulative, this is just plain incoherent. Where to start with this? "If the current trend continues..." nothing to suggest this will happen, no indication that this is even a trend rather than a sequence of events that have, in sum, moved the pound down against the euro. What policy of Gordon Brown's has contributed to this shift? What of the pound's appreciation against the dollar? Just read the "excellently researched" original post. MY GOD! They even use a daily shift in GBP/USD as an indicator of overall market confidence in sterling.
Nicholas
March 18th, 2008 2:19pm Report this commentHa! I like it! The biter bit. Yes, let's misuse statistics and get down and dirty to get shot of Brown!
sam
March 18th, 2008 2:59pm Report this commentPlease help we ordinary folk to understand the difference between "trend " (which is made up of a sequence of events) and "sequence of events " (or trend ). For guidance,see "Terrorist " and "Freedom Fighter "...
Chris Clark
March 18th, 2008 3:15pm Report this commentTrend: A shift that has one or more underlying causes e.g. receding glaciers, poor and/or falling levels of attainment in inner city schools. Sequence of events (as opposed to a trend): where there is no identifiable root cause. If a coin lands heads 10 times in a row, this is not a trend. It's just how things ended up by chance. Rule 1 of financial analysis: Don't confuse random shifts in prices that may happen, for a time, to form some sort of pattern and trends that you can expect to continue.
james allen
March 18th, 2008 3:28pm Report this commentsurely this should be mentioned 2mw ("brown wednesday")???
sam
March 19th, 2008 2:14pm Report this commentClearly Mr Clark does not do irony.
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