Simple but effective?

Sally Chatterjee

His ideas are sound but his presentation can sound too shrill. A voice coach could help him acquire a deeper, more authorative tone.

chris as usual

Hopefully Cameron and Osborne et al will win the election, and whatever they say before and after, the medicine that will need to be applied will be too much for the British electorate and there will be some form of political breakdown in the first 12-24 months. So it is very important that this is anticipated and the current rhetoric is ready for this.

Liebour have given up on what is best for the country, and are reverting to all the usual disgusting rubbish us older folk have had the misfortune to listen to since the early 1960s.

The biggest trap to avoid is to make promises you can't keep. On the other hand, the electorate is not ready to listen to the story about the drop in living standards which is coming.

Beer Moth

Again with the money.

And not a word about the big issue.

Lawrence Greek

"Labour claim this would damage the economy (they are ones to talk)"

There needs to be alot more of this. Labour's record disqualifies them from passing judgement on anyone's economic policies. The electorate must be reminded at every turn that Labour are the masters of fiscal incompetence and their words are utterly discredited.

Marcus Cotswell

Looks like a totally unremarkable stock-in-trade "time for a change" narrative to me

Jeremy

Pete,

I don't think it's simplistic, I think it's actually quite trenchant. Osborne has got the substance of the argument right, and he's pitched it at exactly the right level. Aside from the economics, which are good, I also like the first paragraph, as quoted by yourself:

"Down the path of least resistance lie economic decline, higher interest rates, high unemployment, and more social breakdown. This is the path down which a cynical and exhausted Labour Government tempts us. But there is another path that leads to lasting recovery, rising prosperity, social responsibility and a new way of doing things."

The name of Churchill has been much used and abused by politicians down through the years (remember George W Bush, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown?) but the image Osborne uses of "the path of least resistance" is, I think, genuinely Churchillian.

Chris lancashire

This almighty mess needs to be pinned fairly and squarely on its author - Brown. Don't let the incompetent bully get away with his "it's all global line". This country is and was running a structural defecit of around £100bn thanks to his crazy tax and spend big state approach.

Let's hope that Osborne's well made arguments stick with the electorate.

Watt Tyler

See my problem is this. While we are in the EU, we cannot avoid the fate awaiting it. Hamstrung by beurocracy. Protectionism. Our banking system run from Paris. Membership of the EU demands compliance to a pattern of socialism. I don't see the tories attacking the Labour taxes. I don't see them promising to cut public sector jobs - which must happen. I don't see a difference from Labour, and ultimately I don't think there can be one. The EU doesn't book different methods, and the Labour one is THE method.

Add to this the promised trouble from the Trade Unions, that I don't think the Tory leadership is politically capable of standing up to. I think that if the Tories get in, life will get dramatically worse.

charles hercock

Copenhagen sums Brown up-a failure, an unmitigated disaster, a busted flush.Bring on the sunnier good times with George,Dave and co

Baldwin

George is quite right and stating the obvious.

Socialist governments are spendthrift and incompetent by nature and this lot is just more of the same.

Short the UK

B is for Britain:

1997 - 2007: The Bubble of Britain

~Property bubble, consumer debt bubble, tax receipt bubble from the City, government spending bubble.

2007 - 2010: The Battle for Britain

~Socialism (proto-communism) = Old Labour: tax, spend, huge deficits and a busted balance sheet.

~Capitalism = The Tories: spending cuts, tax rises, targeted tax cuts and balance sheet repair.

2010 - 2011: The Bust of Britain

~Q1 or Q2: perception of a hung parliament blows out the yield curve, currency weakens and base rates need to rise. Cost of financing the deficit rises and import inflation rises. Economy crashes.

~Q2: Old Labour win election - capital flight, capital formation is knee capped. Pound and gilts tank, base rates need to rise. Economy crashes.

~Q2: Hung parliament: pound and gilts tank, base rates need to rise. Economy crashes.

~Q2: Tories win with a majority. Emergency budget of tax rises and spending cuts, leads to a Double Dip early 2011.

I think that in all of the above scenarios UK-centric shares will have a tough time and many will derated. The upside is pretty limited whilst the downside could be extreme. It looks probable that inflation will be more prevalent than deflation, this is already apparent in the official inflation figures. If the pound falls further and world growth leads to higher priced commodities this will heap more pressure on cash poor consumers. If interest rates have to rise to protect the inflation target and currency, then the Debt Junkies will experience another constraint on their cash flow and ability to consume; we enter the twilight zone of Stagflation.

During the Bubble of Britain the growth in GDP was driven by debt:

~Property debt.
~Consumer debt.
~Trading debt in the City.
~Government debt.

With a crippled banking system, a consumer drowning in debt and using a base rate of 0.5% as a lifebouy, plus a government balance sheet that is moving toward Event Horizon, how will growth be engineered in a stagflationary economy? How will the deficit be cut? How will UK-centirc shares thrive in such an environment?

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Nadeem Walayat:

"..Alistair Darling's April forecast that the UK Economy would grow by 1.25% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011. However we need to consider the following in that 1.25% growth on the annual GDP of £1.2 trillion equates to growth of just £15 billion and for 2011; 3.5% growth equates to just £42 billion. Therefore the government is borrowing a net £175 billion for 2009 and £175 billion for 2010 to generate £15 billion of growth, and then a further £140 billion for 2011 for £42 billion of growth. Thus total net borrowing of £490 billion to grow the economy by just £67 billion, (£595 billion my forecast) which shows the magnitude of the scorched earth economic policy now implemented that literally aims to hand the next Conservative government a bankrupted economy that will be lumbered with the consequences of continuing huge budget deficits and therefore necessary deep cuts in public spending."

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William Littlewood - 30/11/09:

"Despite the fact that economic figures suggest most economies are growing again, I continue to believe that we are still living in a ‘deflation now, inflation later’ world — although we are edging ever closer to tomorrow’s world of inflation. I would also expect the transition from deflationary to inflationary conditions to be accompanied by heightened levels of volatility for all asset classes.

In my view, most of the economic growth we have seen in the western world is a direct result of the enormous and unsustainable monetary and fiscal stimulus. I continue to believe that we are going through a balance sheet recession and that a normal V-shaped recovery is unlikely. It would appear that the Federal Reserve share this view. They have signalled again that they will be maintaining their highly accommodative policy of low interest rates for some time to come. What is less clear is how much longer governments can continue with their fiscal stimulus. At some stage, probably sooner rather than later, government bond markets will signal that governments cannot borrow indefinitely from tomorrow to enhance GNP today. Already last month we have seen problems in Dubai, and questions are being asked of Greece, and one day I expect the fiscal and solvency worries of a small country to spread to bigger countries, with the UK, US and Japan being the most vulnerable."

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Cameron can be good cop and Osborne bad cop.

Holly ......

Why not, if Labour get back in the IMF will sort our economy and lots and lots of welfare benefits will either STOP or be CUT.
That should do it.
Exodus of biblical proportions..
..leaving the UK.
(If THERE ARE NO STRIKES THAT IS)

DavidL

The one thing I found odd about his analysis was the reference to £200 on a £150K mortgage. Rather more to the point is the additional cost of 2.5% on the outstanding debt of £850bn for the country that would not be available for spending on the traditional schools and hospitals. What this article is really warning about is that if the markets question the resolve of the British people to get rid of this bunch of incompetents or the Tories intention to get public spending back within our means there will be a real and substantial cost which will result in even harsher cuts in public expenditure. We can do this the hard way or the very hard way.

Amadeus Plonquer

Only a slight criticism of Osborne - he forgot to mention what his policy will be.

Perhaps this is nit-picking. But these days it's quite common for politicians to have one. Sometimes even two.