Call yourself a PR man?

Ben

My problem is that if the tories are not tough enough to lay a finger on the most inept government I can ever remember, how can they be tough enough to take the big decisions needed when they get into power.

diane C - London

Cameron needs to show some passion! He needs to be outraged at what has happened to this country under a Labour Government. Instead of him and his team acting like startled rabbits every time Eton or Inheritance Tax is mentioned, they should be raging that they want everyone to be educated to Eton degree - which costs no more than keeping a lout in prison for 3 years. That everyone who has property and savings should be able to hand it down to their children to spend as they wish. Be passionate - be angry. Stop being so touchy feely and mealy mouthed. It's a total turn off.

Amadeus Plonquer

The Tories know EXACTLY what they need to do. They need to offer the people the policies the people want. And first we want the EU mess cleared up. None of us voted for this dog's breakfast and we want our say in our own future. If Cameron offers this he'll win a massive landslide. If he doesn't he'll find a hung Parliament and another election within a year - hopefully with a new Tory leader. And, like the EU, we sceptics (60% of the British people) will continue having elections until we have the result we want.

Richard Nabavi

This is an absurd interpretation. The ComRes questions were framed in a highly leading way. They are meaningless.

Steve

As usual, everybody thinks its all about Cameron. Even Cameron believes this, I think. It isn't though.

The Conservatives are a party. The grass roots and the campaigners may be small in the scheme of things, but as a solid, vocal, powerful unit they are the backbone which holds the party straight and proud.

What Cameron has done, by gently sidling to the left, is to leave some (maybe many) at the heart of the party frozen in the headlights.

When the leader is putting out a strong Conservative message the party rallies powerfully behind him and the party is immensely powerful. When the message is aimed at the Guardian, at the Green Party and at the BBC we are weakened.

People worry too much about the past. We may have lost badly in the early part of the decade but presuming our shift to the left under Cameron is the reason we are more popular know it wrong. We are more popular now because the political pendulum has swung and the public are ready for a more right-wing message again.

Cameron is a good guy, but his strategic decisions have been diabolical of late. Ever since the Lisbon debacle. And it was such an easy own goal to avoid! That's the tragic thing about it.

djw2009

David Blackburn, please improve your written English. "The Tories are yet to seal the deal". That would be: the Tories HAVE yet to seal the deal. Why do all the mass media employ people who can't write?

Verity

Diane C - "William Hague was so inept last week that he made Harriet Harman look like a postmodern Boadicea."

William Hague is never inept.

William Hague, I believe, feels this battle is lost due to the ineptitude and lack of leadership dedicated to Conservative ideals and the wishes of Conservative voters. Who are now lost in the wash of Cameron's soft liberal Nottinghill dining table preachy, self-promoting one-worlderism.

My guess is, the brilliant, witty, incisive William Hague, with real conservative convictions, is going to dump Dave's Conservatives and pursue his own future.

Who isn't?

Poster Vulture once described Cameron's mouth as a chicken's arse. I've never seen a chicken's arse, but it sounds about right.

Verity

Diane C - "Cameron needs to show some passion." No, he needs to show lack of passion, which he has done for four years. Lack of principles, lack of interest in our Britain and our history. This is how to get support from the Left. Adopt protective colouration, and then buy into it.

It is horrifying that the Conservative Party is being "led" by a self-elevating socialist.

Being a natural Conservative voter, as were my parents, I'll be voting for UKIP in the next election.

Fergus Pickering

Sory diane C, but you ought to get out more. I doubt that stuff about everybody being educated to Eton tandard will fly. You see, it's very EXPENSIVE to educate somebody to Eton standard - at Eton don't you know and we can't AFFORD that sort of money for every Tom, Dick and Harry. I was educated for nothing - and it wasn't bad. But when I went to Oxford b(boast, boast) it was obvious that the chaps who had been to snotty schools had had a better education. Fortunately quite a lot of them were shit thick, and I managed all right. And it's true that an education of the standard I enjoyed is not muc on offer now from the State. Nevertheless, an Eton education it was not.

As for the other thing, come off it darling. I certainly want to leave my little all to my daughters. But I'm buggere3d if I want toe same thing for millionaires. I want them TAXED don't you know. An INHERITANCE Tax. It's just a question of HOW MUCH theypay, or how much YOU pay perhaps. WHY should you pay?Because you are rich, dearie, that's why. I don't give a damn whether you worked hard for it. And poor people outnumber rich people. So Cameron has to appeal tothem just a bit.Or he won't get elected. Simples! Or I would have thought so. Oh, and fire in the belly is easily faked. I'm not interested in it. Common honesty would be nice, though. And I suspectthe tories are ahead there. It would be hard not to be.

DavidDP

It's always useful to ignore polls that don't fit your theories. Like the Mori poll at the same time as the ComRes which showed a 17% lead.

charles hercock

Hold the nerve.We will triumph We will win

Austin Barry

Cameron and his increasingly anemic-looking chums could easily win the election with just three headline policies:

a) an in-or-out referendum on Europe.

(Dave's imperious and dismissive 'I-think-our-place-is-in-Europe-so-fuck-off' statement to the Great Unwashed cost thousands of votes.)

b) an immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan; and

c) mandatory, binding Swiss-style referendums called on, say, 500,000 signatures.

Also, return the languid 'Lord' David Cameron to the Shires and appoint the flat-nosed hard-nut David Davis as leader. His background negates any toff-leadership jibes
and he justs looks the part.

Labour is there for the taking, but the Conservatives seem to be devoid of energy, vision and ideas. And time is running out.

Yam Yam

'Believe' being the operative word in the last paragraph.

Watkin

But note Mike Smithson's serious criticism of the questions in this poll:

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/22/should-the-indycomres-have-heeded-sir-humphreys-advice/

Because of the poll's leading questions it's impossible to tell whether these results have any validity (cf. the famous Yes Minister sketch on opinion polls).

Moraymint

Ben
December 22nd, 2009 11:03pm

I'm with Ben.

Like a stuck record (I know, I know), I'm the proverbial, lifelong Conservative voter struggling to understand why I should vote Conservative.

Here's what I want to vote for:

A small, really small state.
State spending as % of GDP < 40%.
A compassionate state.
Strong defence and security.
Immigration control.
The destruction of political correctness.
A powerful Parliament and the individuality of MPs.
Disengagement from the shocking, undemocratic, expensive bureaucracy that is the EU.
Energy security.
A national focus on wealth creation.
Belief in the freedom and ingenuity of the individual.

Anyone know of a political party that stands for my wish list?

strapworld

Is it not amazing that a PR man cannot connect? He cannot have been that good, can he?

My advice would be to ditch his toff pals and bring in people to advise him who are closer to the people. Firstly I would ask Richard Littlejohn and Jon Gaunt if they would prepare the statements he could open with on each of the three televised debates.

As Dianne C writes, above, he has to be passionate about the bloody mess Brown has created. He has to show that he is angry, very angry, on behalf of the British people.

He MUST listen to Littlejohn and Gaunt because not only do they write newspaper columns, they are both excellent communicators and each have a following of which Cameron needs to connect to!

The Letwins and Maude's of this world have no idea whatsoever of what the ordinary person thinks or believes and they and others have got to be sidelined immediately.

BUT, for all the good advice contained in the comments on this blog I doubt that Cameron will learn from any. He is so full of himself, so convinced of his own self importance that he will not listen to the likes of me or others! That is why he is no manager and certainly no leader.

Just consider what the likes of tebbitt and heseltine did prior to the general election that threw out callaghan. Just remember the brilliance of Margaret Thatcher at that time. Then just worry that the conservatives have got Cameron and a team of nondescripts!

Time to get angry, Time to attempt to show leadership Cameron OR, as I have suggested many times, STEP ASIDE NOW!

Bill

I think the Conservatives under-performance is partly the result of buying into Cameroonism near the top of the bubble; by appearing to adopt a progressive (call it what you will) position they boxed themselves into a corner and prevented themselves from capitalising on Labour disaster. In other words they were too clever by half.

Dorothy Wilson

"Both Cameron and Hague look haunted by the prospect of defeat; the public sense this."

Are you sure that they are not haunted by the prospect of victory give the mess they will inherit from Labour?

Andrew Richardson

I agree with Diane C. We don't need more policies and Graylings (coming up with more Sun reader pap). We need passion and anger and a sense that the Tories represent all of us who see our values, institutions, education etc. (as well as our public finances) being driven into the dirt. It should not be primarily about Europe.

Anger and a sense that this is a Conservative party that will conserve, protect and restore what has been lost. There are a lot of floating voters out there and not just Tories who would respond to that.

Dennis Churchill

The publics’ dissatisfaction with the main parties, sensed by the Conservatives, is due to the political class only operating within its own ideological boundaries. The left of the Conservatives or the right of Labour and Lib-Dems blend seamlessly. The “centre” of opinion is far to the ‘left’ of the general electorate in every area from criminal justice through immigration and on to the European Union.
The Conservatives will never “Seal the Deal” with the electorate as long as they are seen as just another faction of the political class rather than an alternative to it.

Boudicca

Cameron has reined back on the touchy-feely liberal (small L) agenda because he knows he has alienated a large number of core Tory voters with his back-down over the EUSSR - and they have defected to UKIP. He cannot afford to drive any more traditional Tories into UKIP's embrace. At least in this respect, he has learned from Labour's mistakes. They alienated their core white working class vote, who have deserted to the BNP or who will simply not bother to vote.

Both Parties are currently trying to shore up their core electorate; the marginal parties are affecting the outcome of this election before it is even underway.

Of course, if Cameron came off the fence with the EUSSR and pledged that sovereignty will be returned or an In/Out Referendum will be held in his second term, many people (me included) who are planning on voting UKIP will return to the fold.

Dean

As I have commented previously, the Tories have made a number of major strategic errors since last autumn, and 2010 will be the year when they pay for this in the polls with a less than convincing majority.

It was an insult to the electorate's intelligence to pretend that the financial crisis and recession were primarily a result of Labour policies. Most voters are well aware of Labour's faults but can also see the wider picture, namely that the crisis is global and requires statesmanship to resolve. There has been no analysis from the Tories of what needs to change to prevent a recurrence of the worst banking crisis since the 1920s - apart from a shallow proposal to abolish the FSA and give responsibility for regulation to the Bank of England, which doesn't want it.

To help them with this organisational reshuffle, the Tories have appointed a committee of ex-banking supervisors like Michael Foot whose slavish, intellectually lazy acceptance of free market dogma is one of the principal reasons why the crisis occurred in the first place. Plus ca change...

Strategically, the Tories also made a huge error allowing themselves to be painted into a corner where their response to the recession could be castigated as uncaring and Thatcherite. This has allowed Labour to occupy the moral high ground, despite all the damage they have done in office.

The Tories' one dimensional focus on the fiscal deficit has also (very predictably) frightened many public sector employees into thinking that the Tories will axe their jobs. Who advised Cameron on this? It obviously wasn't Michael Heseltine, who made precisely this point about the need not to alienate those employed in the public services.

The Tories also have few concrete proposals to deal with issues of major concern to the electorate, such as mass immigration and the pernicious consequences of multi-culturalism. In fact, on immigration, all the really difficult and unpopular decisions to tighten the rules have already been taken by the Labour government, albeit that it was they who created the problem in the first place.

The Tories also made a strategic error in thinking that Brown represented old Labour and could be beaten on this basis. Whilst it is certainly true that Brown is more sentimentally attached to old Labour values than Blair (by virtue of his Scottish background), the fact remains that he was one of the main architects of New Labour and is not a Clause 4 socialist. Leaving aside his personal failings (which are many), he is therefore very well placed to position himself in the centre ground if the Tories make the mistake of drifting to the right, as they appear to have done.

I don't expect many Speccies to agree with these comments, but they are offered in the spirit of constructive criticism. The country badly needs a change of government, not five more years of Labour or a hung parliament. But as the Independent says, elections are won on the centre ground, not by appealing to the instincts of Tory Party activists, however sound these may be on many issues.

Don

David, I suggest that you go over to Politcal betting.com for an education in polling. The poll you have chosen, presumably on purpose to enable you to write this piece is the lowest tory lead by some considerable margin. You appear to have ignored all the higher leads, why is that?

Vulture

I hate to say this, but in a sense Liebour are right: this IS about class.

Dave's clique cannot be passionate because they have no passion in their bones. They have never had to struggle ( except for the best table in the Ivy). Life has been a smooth passage from the moment they were born and clamped their lips around a silver nipple that has never stopped gorging them with cream.

Previous generations of toff politicos have struggled. Eg Churchill (Omdurman, Boer War) Eden and Macmillan ( the Somme) and so on. What have Cameron, Osbers and Leftwing ever had to do in their useless, empty lives?

Fighting is not in their genes. It is no accident that the only Tory to enjoy mass popular support was the woman who did struggle and work her way to the top in the teeth of economic and sexist prejudice. Thatcher understood what the Tory aspirant classes felt because she was one of them - which is why the liberal Tory nobs hated her so and ended up by bringing her down.

That lethal combination of weak, guilt-ridden liberalism and snobbery will be the death of a Dave Govt ( if by a miracle he wins the GE) - and of us all.

George J

Why is Dave so reticent about attacking Labour's (not so hidden) manifesto of immigration, immigration, immigration which can be summed up as:

1) Provide a welfare state with an ever increasing expenditure paid for by a diminishing number of taxpayers.

2) Extend said welfare to any third world handout seeker who can bypass border security.

3) Abolish border security.

It's UKIP for me, until the tory party pledges to put immigration control under the sole sovereignty of a Westminster parliament and tells Brussels to do the other thing.

Hawkeye

Has anybody at The Spectator bothered to read Mike Smithson's analysis of this poll and the fact that this poll carried very pro-Labour questions?

The first non-voting related question asked whether respondees agreed that “A Conservative Government would mainly represent the interests of the well-off rather than ordinary people” to which there was 52% to 44% agreement

This was followed directly afterwards with “A Labour Government would protect frontline public services such as health and education better than a Conservative Government would” which produced a split of 47% to 46% in agreement.

Not exactly neutral questions so to find this poll giving a narrower lead is no surprise. My own suspicion is that the true tory figure is somewhere in the middle of the extremes we see of 9% - 17% so about 13% is likely and that's more than enough.

michael

Stealthy Gordon's slight of hand,
illusion tax for bonus land.
Dole it out then scream and shout,
and brief and spin then put about.
SH! The hintern, the fine print fallacy,
the ever too clever pick pocket policy
Destitute or big fat cat,
easy money, he'll take it at that.
You wot!... no electoral boost?
The fruits of new labour, they'll come home to roost.

Robert Upfold

djw2009

Although idioms are fixed grammatical structures which cannot be modified without a change of meaning there is no basis on which to outlaw the use of the verb 'to be' with with the expression 'seal the deal'.

Are the Tories about to seal the deal?

If the Tories are to seal the deal they must...

The Tories have made progress but are yet to seal the deal.

My only objection to the phrase is that is, IMV, a meaningless cliche. Is it possible for political parties make deals with the public ? Do they make deals with the broad masses?

No, politicians tend to conceal their actual intentions and gloss over the depth of the real problems because a precise identification of problems and a clear statement of a course of action in response always stirs up contention, with a myriad objections to any one proposal.

That's the problem poor old Cameron faces. Everybody knows that the British state is living on the never never but nobody, least of all employees in the public sector, wants to face up to the fact that spending must be cut.

Socialist politicians such as Brown continue to invoke public welfare as the basis of policy while actually working against the long term interest of the people.

The continual talk about investment in health and welfare has long masked the actual disinvestment in wealth-creating enterprises.

Huge numbers of people have become estranged from reality and cannot be made to understand that rewards cannot come without effort.

Cameron is in deep predicament. He has to attempt to make an appeal to a divided and selfish electorate while minimizing division between opposing wings of his own party.

Brown, on the other, hand can continue to evade the issue of imminent bankruptcy simply be declaring a commitment to public spending which he knows is unsustainable and diverting the argument to one of class.

The present Labour government is entirely disreputable in its aims and methods and if British voters bring it back to power they will be responsible for their own calamity, and deserve no pity.

JONNY

Of all the cliches resorted to by desperate commentators,
'hasn't sealed the deal' is the most meaningless.
For your info Mr Blackburn you only 'seal the deal' when you've collected the votes on Election Day.
Surely you knew...

Chuck Unsworth

This is silly. Until the election is called there's little point in expending energy and capital on constant outrage. Timing is everything, and if the Tories spend the whole time between now and the election raging at the government they'll have nothing to do or say at that critical moment. Any message they may have will have been repeated and then diluted to the point of terminal boredom amongst the electorate.

Sniping to wear down the enemy in the interim is the best policy. Just as long as each day Government attention is diverted to yet another crisis - however small - and exhaustion sets in.

We're not seeing any form of revitalisation in the Government. Initiative after initiative is being trashed. PBR was a shambles and is unravelling as the fine print is revealed. Copenhagen was one of the biggest farces in modern history and Brown has used the opportunity to give away yet more of our cash. Even the weather has been damaging to NuLab by highlighting its incompetence. This is all long game stuff.

Despite the odds, it is possible to defeat NuLab - but it will not be easy. As and when an election is called blitzkreig should be the order of the day. In the meantime take care to plan and prepare for it thoroughly.

Paul

He just needs to drop the IHT change the Tories have promised. Its unaffordable now anyway because of Brown's shambolic handling of the economy. If they want to stimulate the economy with tax cuts then IHT isn't the way to do it - what change in behaviour will it drive? More people deciding to drop dead? In the meantime it is an absolutely gift-wrapped stick for Brown to beat the Tories with.

brian kelly

I hope his apparent lassitude is not a permanent reaction to the sad death of his son. It is truly astonishing that the conservatives are not out of sight of NuLabour. The conservatives do not have anyone in the top five of PoliticsHome's 'Politician of the Year' - and this with a party expecting to be in government in a few months. Too many stories of his rich 'chums' like Ross and Goldsmith neither of whom will be popular with the public. I don't know Ross but, for me, not the type of conservative I would like being close to the leadership and Goldsmith [and his views] should be ditched. The Lord Ashcroft problem should be addressed and fast. The apparent EU referendum climb down is very unpopular - even though it may be unavoidable. If it is unavoidable then stronger language about what the conservatives may do should be displayed.

Barrus Connacht

Up to a few months ago most of my ex Labour
associates were prepared to vote Tory.
We now get the firm impression that the
Cameron dream is little more than a continuation of the Blair/Brown nightmare.
Even the PPCs have'nt the guts to give
straight answers to basic enquiries.
The issue of pub closures devastating local communities is answered with a soul
destroying silence,probably due to the
Cameron fear of unelected pressure groups.
As it stands Con=Lab=Lib-Dem,whats the point in voting ?

Dennis Churchill

The publics’ dissatisfaction with the main parties, sensed by the Conservatives, is due to the political class only operating within its own ideological boundaries. The left of the Conservatives or the right of Labour and Lib-Dems blend seamlessly. The "centre" of opinion is far to the ‘left’ of the general electorate in every area from criminal justice through immigration and on to the European Union.

The Conservatives will never "Seal the Deal" with the electorate as long as they are seen as just another faction of the political class rather than an alternative to it.

old fogey

Not sure about Littlejohn and the other scribbler mentioned, but certainly Letwin and the ghastly Maude should be eased out of any position of influence they have. Cameron had a great excuse with Maude a few months ago following his preposterous expenses claim.

Victor Southern

Well, David Blackburn, you seem to have achieved your objective here. Not only have you put over Mandelson's line very well but you have energised his minions to echo you and also the Heffer disciples.

We see that Cameron does not suit the left/liberal Islington intelligensia nor the head banging right wingers. That shows he is in the right place - with the sane pragmatists and not in cloud cuckoo land.

djw2009

Robert Upfold, you have fallen flat on your face. I was not complaining about "are yet to" when combined with "seal the deal". It was nothing to do with the expression "seal the deal". My objection was to "are yet to" instead of "have yet to".

You may not have had a good education, and I can sympathise with that. The problem for the uneducated is that "he's" can mean either "he is" or "he has". "He's yet to do it" means "he HAS yet to do it", not "he is yet to do it".

It is grammatically wrong to say "I am yet to do such and such a thing".

We are at the fag-end of a civilisation. Native speakers of English, such as the writer of the blog and Robert Upfold, don't seem to acquire English naturally as would once have been the case.

Dennis Churchill

It was said of the Reagan Carter election that the electorate voted against Carter rather than for Reagan.
As long as Cameron is pitted against Brown-or Mandelson/Miliband(s) - that will be enough for a Conservative victory.
It is now too late for Labour to replace Brown with Johnson who could win against Cameron. Neither of the parties is trusted and after Lisbon even manifesto commitments will not be taken seriously.
It will come down to Cameron or Brown and on a low turnout (traditional Labour voters abstaining in unprecedented numbers) the majority will vote against Brown.

THX1138

Alexander Chancellor, makes the rather good point in the Guardian that David Cameron’s problems in the polls are about his perceived phonyness:

"Tony Blair could also have been accused of being like “a modern public relations man”; but, strangely, he came across as a genuine PR man, whereas Cameron seems to be putting even that on."

Fergus Pickering

It seems a bit tetchy to blame Cameron for not fighting on the Somme, dont you think? I don't think people CHOSE to do these things. They were made to. Have you been infected by all this bollocks about heroes? Heroes we don't need. Somebody to digus out of the shit we do. Who knows if Cameron and Osborne are the men? Let's hope so. Of course we'll grumble and grouse when our taxes go up and our services go down. But then we always did. It was pour moaning that kept us going against Hitler, wasn't it? We're miserable sods, no getting away from it. Oh, and while I'm here, what's all this moaning about Cameron's rich chums. Rich chums are the kind you need, as Churchill and Maggie knew very well. It's poor chums you want to ditch. I'm quite poor myself and therefore eaten up with envy. Not the right sort for government at all.

Robert Upfold

djw

You seem not to have read my comment. That is there is np basis to outlaw 'are yet too'.

If you find a reason for your objection then say what it is, otherwise your pedantry is merely ridiculous.

My objection to the cliche was qualified by the letters IMV - meaning in my view. You need to show similar restraint until such time as you can distinguish between rules, real or imagined, and practice.

You really are silly little pedant.

Dorothy Wilson

"William Hague was so inept last week that he made Harriet Harman look like a postmodern Boadicea." Actually, the political commentator in my local newspaper gave Hague a good write up over the PMQs.

Denis Churchill: Johnson would not win. The markets would take total fright if there was even a glimmer of that happening. The real possibility of a down-grading of our credit rating would then become apparent as would the prospect of an increase in interest rates.

Naomi Muse

What was significant about the non-event of PMQs was that the PM had to go all the way to Afghanistan in order to say, sorry, can't do PMQs this week.

It is his absence that is significant.

Hague is very bright but there's no point in fiddling about when Brown is getting all the puff grandstanding over on the battlefield to give an illusion of caring about the troops.

Maybe he'd had a copy of the Queen's Christmas Speech before that?

As to the tedious end of term PMQs, it was best not to be notable for it is of little consequence until Gordo goes and gets himself dissolved by the Queen.

The sooner the better.

Robert Upfold

djw

Pedants' Crossmass party (cnt)

Since you have failed to respond the challenge to provide a basis for your intuition that 'is yet to' is an error allow me to suggest one.

The structure to be + infinitive indicates an event that has been planned, ordered, or commanded at a particular time.

*I am to fly to Milan (next week).

*The groceries are to be delivered tomorrow

*He is to report to HQ (at once).

In these cases the addition of 'yet' would contradict the meaning of prepositional phrase. In the absence of a prepositional phrase 'yet' would be superfluous to the implicit meaaning that the event is yet to occur, though so arranged.

'He has to seal...' conversely connotes necessity or obligation andd the addition of 'yet' indicates a requirement that has not yet been accomplished.

Neverthless the need to outlaw 'is yet to be done' is in fact yet to be done.

You should create a gap-filling exercise and pass it round to all your friends on Christmas Eve.

That way you will discover if they have the right level of education to deserve your company. Alternatively, you could start a research project on the average life of an HB pencil.

Robert Upfold

Oh dear, the pedant's gremlin was at work hoisting his peter, or should that be petard?

You seem not to have read my comment. That is there is np basis to outlaw 'are yet too'.

(Correction: You haven't provided a basis to outlaw 'is yet to...' )

Well it was very early in the morning. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it.

Verity

Michael - good little poem!