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Monday, 28th December 2009

What will 2010 mean for Iran?

Peter Hoskin 5:38pm

If you're looking ahead to 2010, it's a safe bet that Iran is going to be an even bigger issue than it was this year.  The violence currently rocking the country is an echo of June's presidential election, and a reminder, too, of the continuing internal pressure that the Iranian regime faces.  

The question now is whether that will be joined by external pressure of some form.  After provocation after procovation on Tehran's part, it's hard to envision the West keeping its "hand of friendship" outstretched much longer.  But it's also unlikely that  Barack Obama – his eyes on the domestic polls – will want to talk too tough after committing 30,000 more troops to the unpopular Afghan conflict.  

To my mind, the upshot will be a year of increasingly severe sanctions against Iran – mostly, and slowly, administered through the UN.  But the Great Unknown remains Israel.  As I've highlighted before, their timeline sees an Iranian bomb in the not-too-distant.  And the clock continues to tick.

Filed under: Barack Obama (226 more articles) , International politics (717 more articles) , Iran (134 more articles) , United Nations (83 more articles) , US politics (282 more articles)

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Ali Mostofi

December 28th, 2009 6:21pm Report this comment

The people of Iran are beginning to realise that they need to be united peacefully, and then to overthrow the mullahs peacefully, so that they can live with their conscience. The ancient spirit of Iran, our well known philosophies, or wealth of poetey from Hafez, Saadi to Ferdowsi all teach us so.

Austin Barry

December 28th, 2009 6:47pm Report this comment

In Israel, in Camp Bar Lev between Ashkelon and Qiryat Mal'akhi, the fate of Iran's nuclear programme has been determined. Israel has given-up on Obama and the EU and it's almost time to roll.

Edmund Jerk

December 28th, 2009 8:07pm Report this comment

Israel bombing Iran would be a fucking disaster. Let the Iranian people topple the regime. We should support the people in their efforts, but avoid any military action.

Andy Leeds

December 28th, 2009 8:39pm Report this comment

I knew a lot of Iranians when the Shah was in power. I remember how overjoyed they were when he left and I recall telling them they would live to regret that day. No, no was the cry. A few years later I bumped into one of them in London. He had never been able to go home and some of his relations had been executed. So to me it is poetic justice. The Shah will have his revenge on the Turban tyrants, and I hope 2010 is the year they are overthrown.

David Lindsay

December 28th, 2009 9:09pm Report this comment

Those cheering on the demonstrators in Iran, what would be and is your view of student demonstrations in your own country? What did you think of the teenagers on the Countryside March or who protested against the Iraq War? I happened to agree with both of them, but I bet you didn't on the second point, and I bet a lot of you didn't on the first.

All sorts of ideas circulate in universities, so these people could be anything, not least since all manner of people could be, would be and are opposed to the current government of Iran. Being around traditional-age undergraduates is very energising, and I have no doubt that it has done me the world of good following my several major operations over the last year and a half. Their open-mindedness is quite splendid most of the time. But not all of the time. The flip side of youthful open-mindedness is callowness. Come on, we all know this. We were all that age once.

So, who, exactly, are these Iranian dissidents with their student followings? What, exactly, do they want? How can we know that that would pose what the current regime poses to us, namely absolutely no threat whatever, however little it may be to our taste? Or that it would continue to provide guaranteed parliamentary representation to our Assyrian and Armenian fellow-members of Christendom, as well as to Jews who could at least broadly be categorised as ultra-Orthodox, and who will therefore be denaturalised in Israel, as will the Arabs there, once Lieberman's loyalty oath comes in effect? Saying "better the devil you know" does not deny that the devil is the devil.

And anyway, is Iran the devil? The regime may be one of the world's nastier, but it is far from the worst, and it certainly bears comparison with our dear friends in the Gulf and in Central Asia. From one of the former came the 9/11 attacks. Not from Iraq, as Americans were told. Nor did Iraq have WMD, as ninety per cent of Britons cottoned on at the time. And nor did Iraq feed prisoners into paper shredders, as alleged by those now making outlandish claims about the treatment of prisoners in Iran. Be not deceived.

David Lindsay

December 28th, 2009 9:10pm Report this comment

Austin Barry, the Americans are only still in Iraq in order to shoot down any Israeli mission against Iran. Thus, just for once, America really would save the world.

Vulture

December 29th, 2009 7:17am Report this comment

@David Lindsay
Your views on Iran are, shall we say eccentric. How many Iranians have you met?
This regime is an obscurantist medieval tyranny, and those protesting against it are not just students ( look at the videos). This is a people defying the bullies and bullets of a monstrous and illicit regime which delights in raping, jailing and murdering its own people. Get real.

Geoff Miller

December 29th, 2009 7:24am Report this comment

Unfortunately history shows that dictatorial regimes under pressure from internal opposition often turn to outward aggression against a common enemy.

This is not a good time to be an Israeli.

We face a nuclear conflict in the Middle East within 2 years.

digbydolben

December 29th, 2009 9:37am Report this comment

Obama's main foreign policy in his first term as President will be to contain the Zionist State:

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/pollak/190782

He will do it, and he will have the support of most of the American people in doing it. The Zionist lobby that supports Likudnik expansionism is weakening in the U.S.

Augustus

December 29th, 2009 5:21pm Report this comment

What would have been a real tragedy this year is if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a virulent demagogue, had been 'elected' other than by massive fraud, because then leaders of the world like Obama might have even applauded the 'democratic' election in Iran. And no matter who is president there, the mullahs
always have the final word and make all the important decisions. They even decide who may run in elections and what laws are legal.

Those who expect a revolution in Iran will be disappointed. As long as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the police apparatus support the government of the mullahs they will stay in power. Attempts by foreign powers to change the Iranian system would only result in legitimizing it
as a 'patriotic' defender of Iranian independence. On the other hand, the US should not let itself be bullied, and as Iran will not change its policy of trying to become the domininant power in the ME, it is up to the West to decide what to do about that particular aspect of Iran's foreign policy.

Dennis Leeds

December 30th, 2009 8:37am Report this comment

A few nights ago I had a nightmare about an Iranian backpack nuke being detonated on the campus of UCLA and blowing cars end over end, houses being reduced to flying boards and nails, and a nuclear fireball incinerating my city of West Los Angeles, which happens to be where many Iranian exiles live, all of whom are much hated by the despotic regime in Tehran. Now, despite the plethora of missiles being built by the mad mullahs, their craziness probably has some contstraints, because they would know even under President Obama and his evil and insane foreign policy advisers, a missile attack against the US would not only incinerate Iran but would probably incinerate the bank accounts its Revolutionary Guard and clerical leaders keep in Syria and Lebanon. But the Iranian leaders probably believe that using terrorist proxies for an attack against the USA would give them credible denial, the same way they have so far denied involvement for the attacks against the US marines in Beirut and against the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. And of course there are many in the Basij, the suicide kamikaze corps of Iran, who would volunteer to attack America. So I hope that our President find a sense of proportion and that he stops listening to evil foreign policy advice from
advisers like Zbignew, Ben Rhodes, Joseph Cirrinionce, Rob Malley and other anti Israel whack jobs who advise Obama and who claim that Iran can be contained. Al Queda is several thousand very dangerous terrorists spread around the globe but they so far do not control a nation state, although they have tremendous influence in Pakistan through the ISI. Iran, on the other hand, is a country that has been run by a terror regime since Khomeini took over, a country where every government meeting and religious meeting begins with chants of Death to America !! and Death to the Jews shouted at the top of peoples lungs, for a solid 5 or ten minutes, while their eyes roll back in their heads, their lips twist back, and spit sprays out of their mouths like an assemblage of rabid dogs. The Iranian clerics have created a level of hate and venom unmatched in history and exceeding any degree of pustulant hatred created by Hitler or the Japanese fascists of the 1930s and 40s. So I hope President Obama realizes that the would be airplane bomber who tried to set the Detroit bound airliner on fire, and the threat the Yemen branch of Al Queda represents, is small potatoes, compared to the virulent and never ending hatred created by the regime in Iran. Please note that the regime in Iran today condemned its opponents within as being against God, which is Iranian shorthand for saying that those who oppose the clerical regime can soon expect mass executions. Presumably this will clear the decks for Iranian mass murder attacks against the US and its allies.

Ewiak Ryszard

January 10th, 2010 11:07am Report this comment

Iran should not arouse concern. Georgia is the most dangerous flashpoint. The Bible says: "At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return back [will regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union] and come into the south [many indicate that this might be Georgia], but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West] will come against him, and he will be humbled, and will return." (Daniel 11:29,30a) Then Iran will be humbled also. "But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates]." (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)

At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the "great sword" - nuclear sword - will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor "the end of the world" (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be "the beginning of birth pains". (Mathew 24:7,8)

If the Heavens planned a full return of Russia (and much suggests this) the present economic crisis will deepen. Then also the European Union and NATO will not stands.

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