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Wednesday, 30th December 2009

2010: my predictions and yours

Daniel Korski 2:15pm

It’s that time of year – TV and radio are packed with special editions of Dr Who, news reviews and numerous best-ofs. So let me add to the cacophony with a look ahead to next year. Here are thirteen (and a bit) predictions for 2010:

1. The Taliban will mount a Tet-like attack on an Afghan town centre, such as Laskar Gar, prompting the Lib Dems to call for a British withdrawal from Afghanistan.

2. Iran’s regime will arrest and condemn to death one of the contenders in the 2009 presidential election.

3. Brazil will win the World Cup in South Africa.

4. The Pakistani president will be forced from office to be replaced by Nawaz Sharif.

5. Marwan Barghouti is exchanged for Gilad Shalit and subsequently elected Palestinian president.

6. David Cameron will be elected as Prime Minister and David Miliband will become Labour leader. The head of the Army, General David Richards, will become Chief of Defence.

7. China and India engage each other’s forces over the Line of Actual Control.

8. Bernard Kouchner is replaced as French foreign minister by Europe minister Pierre Lellouche when President Sarkozy reshuffles his government.

9. The UK base interest rate at the end of 2010 will be 1.25 percent.

10. There will NOT be a Gazprom-led gas crisis in 2010, but Yulia Tymoshenko will become Ukrainian president

11. A large, Mumbai-style terrorist attack will take place on the European continent.

12. Yemen descends into all-out civil war, as President Ali Abdullah Saleh is killed by a relative.

13. Ruth Bader Ginsberg will retire from the Supreme Court, Harry Reid will lose his re-election, Democrats hang on to the House, but Governor Charlie Crist becomes Florida’s next senator and is immediately anointed the likely Republican 2012 contender.

That’s what I saw in my crystal ball. What do you see in yours? Let’s hear what CoffeeHousers predict will happen in 2010.

Filed under: Afghanistan (339 more articles) , Defence (353 more articles) , Europe (752 more articles) , International politics (737 more articles) , New Year (14 more articles) , Predictions (7 more articles) , Terrorism (298 more articles) , US politics (319 more articles)

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Dungeekin

December 30th, 2009 3:01pm Report this comment

POLITICS AND UK

* In the runup to the General Election, Gordon Brown will be the target of a leadership challenge fronted by Frank Field. Brown will lock himself into his bunker, and a combined team of SAS and Broadmoor staff will assault No. 10 and take him into protective custody - to protect the country.

* Led by new Leader Tom Harris and by dint of artifice, skullduggery and some carefully-faked photos of David Cameron in flagrante with Ann Widdicombe, the Labour Party will win the next General Election with an increased majority.

* In the weeks before Parliament is dissolved for the election, David Cameron will finally lose patience with the Prime Minister in PMQs and launch a four-letter tirade before leaping across the Dispatch Box and attempting to strangle Brown with David Millipede.

* Nick Clegg will claim a massive victory for the Liberal Democrats after the election, after exit polls will indicate that almost 5% of the British electorate had actually heard of him.

* Osama Bin Laden will stand as an Independent candidate against Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth in Coventry North-East, campaigning on an anti-war platform.

* Speaker John Bercow will stand down, having accepted a six-figure Hollywood deal to play a Smurf.

* The SNP's Alec Salmond will finally lose his mind and attempt physical devolution for Scotland by chiselling, by hand, through the Earth's crust just north of Gretna.

* The complete collapse of the UK economy, leading to the potato becoming the primary form of currency, will lead to Britain being expelled from the EU, the Commonwealth, the G7 and the G20. Bono announces a charity concert in aid of starving British children, prompting a flood of emigrations and the UN to announce a humanitarian crisis.

* The UK will be plunged into a constitutional crisis following the death of Her Majesty the Queen in a freak halibut incident, and the announcement that Prince William is to undergo gender reassignment surgery.

WORLD

* US President Barack Obama will actually DO something, prompting celebrations and a slew of awards including the first-ever second Consecutive Nobel Peace prize.

* Iranian President Mahmoud CanIdoaJihadyet will be stoned to death on live TV, after referring to a ceremonial dinner he'd just eaten as 'good enough for Allah'.

* The effects of Climate Change will become more pronounced across the globe. Polar bears are seen hunting on glaciers in Texas, Australia is submerged under three feet of water and Alaska becomes the latest sunshine holiday destination. The effects are felt in the UK, where London suffers fourteen hours of continuous drizzle and temperatures rise to 54 Degrees F.

SPORT AND ENTERTAINMENT

* Babyshambles frontman Pete Doherty will be appointed UN Ambassador to Afghanistan, after research indicates he's one of their biggest customers.

* After delivering a particularly scathing review on 'Britain's Got Talent', Simon Cowell will be brutally attacked by a disgruntled contestant. It takes a crack team of proctologists several hours to surgically remove both And and Dec from Mr Cowell.

* Michael Schumacher will have an unsuccessful return to Formula One, after other drivers complain about his tendency to drive everywhere at 32mph with his foglight on and his indicators going.

Tory Rascal

December 30th, 2009 3:06pm Report this comment

My 12 predictions are at http://toryrascal.com/2009/12/29/political-predictions-2010/. Top five:

1. Razor-thin majority for Conservatives.
2. Lib Dems get 80-90 seats in the Commons.
3. Alistair Darling barely holds on to his Edinburgh seat.
4. Ed Miliband becomes Labour leader.
5. Lord Mandelson not invited into shadow cabinet.

David Ossitt

December 30th, 2009 3:27pm Report this comment

My predictions; or rather wish list.

Gordon Brown will claim that it is “the right thing to do” when he refuses to leave number 10, after loosing the general election, he will be only slightly hurt in the fracas that ensues.

All hell will break loose when a Spanish Magistrate has Tony Blair arrested for war crimes and as a result Cherie sues him for divorce.

David Cameron has a road to Damascus moment; and is immediately converted to Conservatism.

The BNP win three seats at Westminster; this fact ensures that David Cameron’s conversion is to the right wing of his party.

Austin Barry

December 30th, 2009 3:27pm Report this comment

"11. A large, Mumbai-style terrorist attack will take place on the European continent."

Agreed, but I fear it will be in London. Then all bets will be off and everything changed utterly.

Frank S

December 30th, 2009 3:41pm Report this comment

1. The Tories will win the election, despite a very large swing to the BNP by working class voters, and to UKIP by middle class ones.
2. What was once 'global warming' and became 'climate change' thanks to some Madison Avenue guidance, will mutate further into something like 'climate sensitivity/awareness' as odious greenies furiously try to reassemble their bandwagon from a pile of matchwood.
3. The cesspit of climate science will have attracted the concerned attention of chancellors and vice-chancellors, and some schemes to ditch it will be hatched in port-swilled meeting rooms.
4. A feeble report on climategate will be produced by the chap who was the civil service supremo in charge of the fiasco re the design and building of the ridiculous edifice now housing the Scottish parliament.
5. Coal will be a hot commodity, especially if temperature declines get harder to hide.
6. Hacks everywhere will be on the look out for 'New Little Ice Age' scare stories
7. The great gulf between Muslims and the rest of humanity will widen even further as more people study their beliefs, and get dismayed by their actions.
8. Profiling systems will be developed and deployed by many airlines, with or without support by governments.
9. The United Nations will look increasingly absurd and decadent, and will show dramatic declines in support in opinion polls.
10. Ditto the EU.

Verity

December 30th, 2009 4:16pm Report this comment

Both UKIP and the BNP will get seats. UKIP will get more than the BNP and those votes will have come from former Tory voters. If the Tories manage to squeak in, they will have to make a lot of concessions to both these parties in order to cling on and get any legislation through at all. Even if the Tories do get in, their government won't last more than a year. A new leader will take over from the metropolitan elite liberal Cameron and another election will give them a large enough majority to carry out true Conservative policies. The first of which will be The Grand Repeal Bill, repealing every scrap of legislation enacted by the Marxists. I believe that's around 4,000 repressive laws enacted over the previous years that will be scrapped at the stroke of a pen. The new Leader will be Daniel Hannan or John Redwood, fine men both.

Oh, and Nigel Farage will win John Bercow's seat.

AndyinBrum

December 30th, 2009 4:18pm Report this comment

nah, too many soldiers in London, Manchester, Birmingham or Leeds

Verity

December 30th, 2009 4:22pm Report this comment

Dungeekin - "Iranian President Mahmoud CanIdoaJihadyet will be stoned to death on live TV, after referring to a ceremonial dinner he'd just eaten as 'good enough for Allah'."

No, he will be stoned in public for saying in the Iranian Parliament, "Allah, Shmalla, who's up for a ham buttie?"

Watt Tyler

December 30th, 2009 4:27pm Report this comment

@David Ossitt

If Cast-Iron converts to the "right wing" of his party, then it still means that he is shit because then he will be the biggest flip-flop since John Kerry in appropriate footwear for a beach.

Question to people, if you think Cast-Iron is this unprincipled, why will you vote for him?

Watt Tyler

December 30th, 2009 4:29pm Report this comment

By the way, Korski, when you talk about calls for exiting Afghanistan, which Liberal Democrat party do you mean? The old, yellow, useless one that stands for nothing, or the new blu one that is trying to ape it?

Nicolas Matte

December 30th, 2009 4:32pm Report this comment

As a US resident I can tell you that while Christ MAY win a senate seat, he doesn't have a hope in hell of being the Republican candidate for president.

Jez

December 30th, 2009 4:43pm Report this comment

I feel we are teetering on a knife-edge 2010 socially anyway.... economically it's just a deflation shrinking, downward spiral.

Any of these Islamic crazies get through and the fracture will be immense- as a translation on the British streets anyway- as an opinion.

The social / ethnic / cultural divisions will become stronger in 2010- with the mainstream machine trying ever more desperate and complex window-dressings of the unsellable.

The Tories, LibDem, NuLab mid-ground politics will become even more intertwined- with a complete lack of a forward driving, initiative grabbing counter-force emerging.

Globalisation will 'crank up' a gear with more UK assets (industry / manufacturing) 'shutting up shop' with those who have money buying in bulk from the far-East, then selling onto the UK domestic market for an immediate big-hit profit turn-over.

Mega-stores will dominate retail- with the only 'counter' being Internet trading / business- thus decimating small business enterprise in town centres etc- Anything with overheads, ground rent, insurances, 'Nulab tax burdens' etc will not be able to compete.

The mainstream-media will scream the benefits of the UK population being replaced, out-sourced, under-cut- whilst also being utterly incapable of understanding why a people such as the British feel bewildered, upset, angry at being wiped of the face of the map through massive socially engineered & unchecked immigration...

-yet the very same media shriek from the roof-tops by the massive unchecked internet revolution or the unfair advantage that the public funded BBC have over them in the market place.

To any worried media types, please don't fret. Dominoes, Tesco and KFC are taking on staff all the time now.

Yep. The future looks bright.....

Tim Calvert

December 30th, 2009 4:48pm Report this comment

Austin Berry

More likely, Gordon Brown will announce that he has clear and indisputable (but nevertheless undisclosable)evidence of Mumbai style attacks on polling booths.

This "forces" him to cancel the General Election.

Chris

December 30th, 2009 4:57pm Report this comment

@ Nicholas Matte: You are quite right that Christ can't become President, since he is debarred by the Constitution, as (a) not a native-born American and (b) not over 35. Crist, on the other hand...

Beer Moth

December 30th, 2009 4:58pm Report this comment

The UK will be one year closer to being an Islamic Republic.

Anne Wotana Kaye 1

December 30th, 2009 5:29pm Report this comment

Horrible things happening I hope not!
1. China so enraged with Brown's interference stops supplying Britain with cheap manufactured goods.
2. Chain stores dependent on said goods go kaput. Staff laid off and on benefits.
3. Brown's evil plan has paid off. He has millions more tied voters.
4. The archbishops and all other clergy are dismissed. The great cathedrals are equipped with loud speakers and domes replace spires. Prince Charles is invited to become Protector of the Faith. Camilla buys a burka, whilst Prince Philip is prosecuted for horse whipping his eldest son.
And that's only the start.

Tariq

December 30th, 2009 5:41pm Report this comment

Having helped engineer the removal of a moderate Republican candidate for Congress in upstate NY (over the objections of Newt Gingrich, no less), Sarah Palin is not going to allow a moderate like Charlie Crist to advance any further than he already has.

Stewart

December 30th, 2009 5:49pm Report this comment

1. Brazil will win World Cup.
2. Conservatives win election with 50 seat + majority.
3. UKIP win a few seats, BNP get one.
4. Climategate unravels further but politicians continue to support enivronmental groups for fear of the green lobby. Another national newspaper follows the Daily Express and starts questioning the 'science' on its front page. The Independent folds towards the end of the year as the wheels start coming off its pet cause's bandwagon.
5. Alec Salmond uses a Conservative election victory to further his arguments for a Scottish Independence Referendum as fewer than 5 Conservative MPs are returned in Scotland.
6. Public sector and transport unions become more militant as they realise they can be a more effective opposition than Labour until 2013. This plays into Conservative hands to cut off public funding of unions as a money saving measure as public tires of rail and tube strikes.
7. Iranian opposition groups continue to piggy back their demonstrations on the back of national days of celebration in Iran. Scores die throughout the year but the UN doesn't agree on tough sanctions or military action. Israel doesn't attack but some senior Iranian military personnel never return from trips to Lebanon or Gaza.
8. Wills Proposes to Kate Middleton.
9. She accepts.
10. Woolworths is reopened and shares in companies manufacturing china plates and tea-towels pull the British Economy out of recession although too late to save Labour from electoral defeat.

expat in paris

December 30th, 2009 5:57pm Report this comment

Charlie Christ elected to the Senate? What are you smoking?????

And then it gets worse, you think this will make him a front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Hmmmm....... me thinks you know almost nothing about American politics.

And the GOP will take the House.

Herbert Thornton

December 30th, 2009 7:22pm Report this comment

The most plausible forecast among the foregoing is the large Mumbai style attack in Londonistan.

Maybe, instead of being in a hotel, it will be in the Palace of Westminster and we will then see mobs cheering in the streets. Some will consist of Muslims and others will consist of native Brits.

My own forecast of the aftermath of that is that Daniel Korski will write a piece explaining that the mobs in the streets are proof that diversity and multiclturalism work and should be preserved.

MrJones

December 30th, 2009 7:35pm Report this comment

"nah, too many soldiers in London, Manchester, Birmingham or Leeds"

The rifles will be in London, the bullets in Manchester, the key for the bullet cupboard will be in Birmingham and the hofficer in charge of the bullet cupboard will be in Leeds.

Moraymint

December 30th, 2009 8:49pm Report this comment

Oil will pass through $80 per barrel, heading for $100 and crush everything in its path.

Not much else will matter during 2010 and beyond, other than that the end of mankind's 200-year era of cheap energy - glimpsed briefly at $147 per barrel in 2008 - will become the new socio-economic reality.

A new world order will emerge, the details of which few can/will predict. All bets are off and any other predictions for 2010 will prove to be either unfounded or trivial by comparison.

Thereafter, the great global deleveraging will begin in earnest, at every level: individuals, businesses and governments.

The transition to a sustainable energy world will be difficult and painful because no political class anywhere in the world is preparing its society for it.

The black swan is flying silently towards us now.

Jez

December 30th, 2009 9:37pm Report this comment

HA HA HA!

Hey, you couldn't make it up!

Quote this afternoon;

from Jez;

"The social / ethnic / cultural divisions will become stronger in 2010- with the mainstream machine trying ever more desperate and complex window-dressings of the unsellable."

Tonight via The Times;

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6970895.ece

I especially love this bit;

" Our birthrate increased by 15.4 per cent between 2001 and 2007. And two thirds of this can be traced back to foreign-born mothers.... *Not every country is so lucky.* Our median age of 39 seems positively spritely beside Japan’s 44. In Singapore, the Government has paid out millions of pounds in an unsuccessful attempt to persuade women to have more children. If demography is destiny, then diversity may be our key to a happy fate. "

Yep. Japan. The socially knackered, divided hell-hole that is 'Japan'..... And Singapore. Who on Earth would want to go there with the social divisions, crime rate and gang warfare. But (for instance) Bradford / Peckham / Luton.... the utopian examples of diversity, in a wet-dream format almost... now they're lovely.

Seriously, what planet are these clown's orbiting right now?

How can someone be given such a broad platform to say such things (that are as an opinion, quite blatently incorrect to almost anyone who can count, tie their shoe-laces or pull off takeing themselves to the toilet unaided)?

Something is not right here.

Moraymint

December 30th, 2009 10:00pm Report this comment

Further to my post at 8.49 pm, and in case you don't believe me:

http://tinyurl.com/yfg7abe

The black swan's closer than you think. Bone up on Peak Oil before it's too late.

Herbert Thornton

December 30th, 2009 11:02pm Report this comment

Moraymint -

I don't like to quote a Saudi Prince as my authority for doubting whether you are right about oil, but one of them indicated some time ago that the price of oil would stabilize at around $80 a barrel.

Why? Because, he noted, oil can be produced profitably from Canada's vast Tar Sands in Alberta at somewhere around that price.

Of course the fanatical disciples of the man-made global warming theory are already protesting about - and will doubtless continue to do their utmost to prevent - the extraction of oil from the Tar Sands. Consequently, much could depend on the Canadian Federal government and on how the Canadian electorate vote. The Ontario and Quebec components tend towards leftism and political correctness and as well as towards blind belief that there is a need to combat global warming. They harbour widespread envy of the wealth that Alberta has reaped from it's vast oil supplies, and in many cases, feel actual dislike of and contempt for Alberta for not sharing their leftism. The combination of those factors could be a great impediment to continued extraction of oil from the Tar Sands.

On the other hand, I can't imagine Albertans being willing to allow the Federal government's Ontario and Quebec components to deprive them of their fair share of the economic benefits of exploiting the Tar Sands especially after their experiences of Pierre Trudeau's virtual seizure of control of Alberta's conventional oil production in the past. That is something for which Albertans have never forgiven him. It even caused many Albertans to call for secession from Canada. Moreover, China has shown considerable in the Tar Sands - and has actually, as I recall, made investments in their operation. It is, in short, in the interests of both China and Alberta that the Tar Sands should available as an increasingly massive source of oil. I don't know how China would react to obstruction of access to interests that it had purchased in Alberta's oil, but I doubt that China would be any more inclined to defer to opposition from Ontario and Quebec than it was inclined to defer to the politically correct squeals from the British government over the execution of the Pakistani-but-he-had-a-British passport drug courier.

But the picture of the future doesn't depend just on oil and your forecast of a new world order is, I think, spot on. The massive influx and enormous growth of Islam into and in Europe and the indifference - and even the complicity in it - of politicians is even more dismaying than the possibility of exorbitantly priced oil. So far as Britain is concerned the only hope for national survival is, in my opinion, the BNP.

callingallcomets

December 31st, 2009 1:17am Report this comment

Crist as GOP nominee....are you from Planet Frum? He might not even reach the Senate....can you not spell RUBIO? Obviously also, being Speccie you are not allowed to spell PALIN...

Amadeus Plonquer

December 31st, 2009 1:54am Report this comment

Pah! None of this is important - dancing around the REAL issues. Not even a mention of X-Factor.

Roger Davies

December 31st, 2009 8:28am Report this comment

I see Brown continuing PM, Balls as his mad Chancellor, a run on the £Pound, the FTSE bombing and hundreds of thousands of our finest young minds buying one way tickets out of this Marxist hell hole. Apocalypse Now!

Vulture

December 31st, 2009 9:42am Report this comment

I predict that Dave will be the worst Prime Minister since Gordon Bruin.

Really looking forward to saying 'Told you so' this time next year.

Frank P

December 31st, 2009 10:35am Report this comment

The are only two certainties for 2010:

(1) Fraser Nelson will not keep his promise about 'addressing the Neather revelations'.

(2) I shall go on tittering throughout the entire year as a result of the excellent satirical offering crafted by Dungeekin at 3.01pm above. It deserves an honorarium Fraser, at least a year's free subscription.
(Or is he/she already on the payroll).

Victor Southern

December 31st, 2009 11:29am Report this comment

I predict that Watt Tyler and Vulture will maintain their attacks on Cameron for all 365 days of 2010.

They will be most disappointed when neither Nigel Farage nor Gordon Brown become PM. Not even Daniel Hannan.

Whatever will we do with both the Left and Far Right of UK politics sitting in the swings? I will even predict that - we will carry on very well without them in power.

ThousandsOfMilesAway

December 31st, 2009 11:39am Report this comment

Green shoots will die; chickens will come home to roost; stock markets will approach but possibly not broach this years lows; more terrorism; the most ill-tempered and dirty election campaign will be won by the conservatives (just), a result that pleases next to no-one

Percy

December 31st, 2009 12:21pm Report this comment

Coffee House continues to attract more UKIP/BNP fruitcakes.

JONNY

December 31st, 2009 1:45pm Report this comment

I predict that the Vultures of this world will have a fine old time pecking Cameron's eyes out.
If he wins they'll peck at nhim.
If he losdes ditto.
And if there's a hung pa

JONNY

December 31st, 2009 1:52pm Report this comment

Sorry for that. Now then...where were we?
Oh yes -
I predict that the Vultures of this world and attendant carrion crows will have a fine old time of it pecking at Cameron's vitals - throughout the year in question and irrespective of the election result.
I also predict their sainted but boringly late middle-aged UKIP Party will collect nulles pointes.
Not even John Bercow's skull.

King Prawn

December 31st, 2009 2:48pm Report this comment

1. The Tories will win the election in a landslide. Nick Griffin will win the Barking constituency for the BNP.

2. Harriet Harman will be the next leader of the Labour Party.

3. The Labour Party will split in two with the Blairite wing forming their own party. This party will eventually become the main opposition party.

4. The Tories try to nationalise the Post Office but after the unions flex their muscles, Cameron gives up. Any hope of cutting the scale of the public workforce goes with it.

5. The French and The Germans run rings around Cameron in the EU. Britain is left isolated in Europe.

6. Massive terrorist attack occurs in the City Of London. Will signal the end of multiculturism. Violent clashes between right wing and Islamist extremists will occur.

7. Taliban will melt away in Afghanistan due to the US 'surge'. However, they will be waiting for the 'surge' to end before making their move.

8. Obama's popularity will go down the pan. Democrats will lose control of both Houses in the mid-term elections.

9. The rebellion in Iran will find itself a leader and the the government in Iran will be overthrown.

10. Italy will win the World Cup.

Snowman

December 31st, 2009 5:42pm Report this comment

I take it nobody told you that 'man predict everything but the future'.

penny4m

December 31st, 2009 8:32pm Report this comment

Gordon Brown will be ousted as Labour leader before the General Election. Mandelson will parachute in a shiny new leader who will give Cameron a run for his money. Andy Burnham I reckon.

PayDirt

December 31st, 2009 11:20pm Report this comment

2010 will see a continuation of the takeover of the world by computer games, this is definitely set to worsen in the coming decade as more and more young people seek thrills, but not spills, from the likes of XBOX360 etc. Living in a virtual world will be more and more tempting to the otherwise unemployed. With what result? Is this just a fashion which will wither and die, will the more hardy souls kick the habit and go out in search of the real world leaving an underclass of game-addict zombies, will the current spate of war-hero games be superceded by more intelligence-enhancing interactions with the computer monster that is inevitably bit by bit taking over from human life forms?

Ghengis

January 1st, 2010 1:37pm Report this comment

AND NOT A MENTION OF PUTTING WESTMINSTER TO RIGHTS. INTERESTING?.

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