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Thursday, 31st December 2009

The Tories must make the public understand just how much damage Brown has done to the nation's finances

James Forsyth 2:41pm

The mission for the Tories in the New Year is to communicate to the electorate just how bad a state the public finances are in. The Tories need to hammer this message home until the proverbial man on the street knows the numbers. Only when people realise that we were first in and last out of recession of the major economies and that, as Rosemary Righter points out in The Times today, the deficit is roughly twice as large in real terms than it was when Healey was forced to go to the IMF will Brown’s standing collapse as much as it should by rights.

Brown’s defenders will say that he has been dealing with exceptional circumstances. But his pre-crash handling of the public finances was reckless in the extreme. Just before the crash—and after a decade of growth—Britain was borrowing more than two percent of its GDP.

The problem for the Tories is the consequences of Brown’s policies—a ratings downgrade, a gilts strike—mean little to most voters. While the Labour attack line that the Tories will cut your services and raise your taxes is easily understood.   

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emil

December 31st, 2009 2:59pm Report this comment

It would help if the majority of our lazy mainstream media understood first, and shared it with their readers. Sadly between the BBC and, equally suppine, SkyNews Brown has had a very easy ride.

Thomas Cussans

December 31st, 2009 3:04pm Report this comment

It is telling that you claim that 'the consequences of Brown's policies . . . mean little to most voters'. People had no difficulty understanding the calamitous mishandling of the economy by Labour in the 1970s. Why should it be any different now? It is a very simple message to get across.

Could it be that the relentless brain-washing and terrorising of the media by NuLab is such that even the likes of you, James, seem unreasonably inclined to their lying at face value with the inevitable result that Cameron and Co. inevitably struggle to expose McManiac for the fraud, thug and bully he is so obviously is.

And that's a happy thought to wish the New Year in on.

John Smith

December 31st, 2009 3:23pm Report this comment

I wish all of the electorate had an A'Level in Economics (or equivalent). It would destroy Brown's attempt to pull the wool over the nation's eyes. I'm heading off to university next year, all of my friends did Economics for A'Level. Strange that not one now considers voting for Labour.

It's a difficult issue to communicate, but it must be done. The possible consequences of large debt are catastrophic.

oldrightie

December 31st, 2009 3:25pm Report this comment

The Tories have failed dismally to lay a glove on the worst Government in history, so I doubt they will now. If the reality of Labours' failures were known then they would be gone from the political scene forever.

JohnBUK

December 31st, 2009 3:27pm Report this comment

Yes, set out in personal terms what it will mean for the voters. But remember for most Labour voters it won't make a lot of difference. Those at the bottom of the heap on benefits etc will not see any change and those very rich luvvies will not notice any great change to their lifestyle. Hammer home the changes that the middle and upper-working classes (who voted labour in 1997) will see in their standard of living to ensure they vote Tory this time.
Having said that my vote will probably go to Dave not because I think he reflects my views but because I do not want by any fluke a continuation of the lying scumbags currently hosing my taxes liberally around the State urinal to no apparent effect.

Adrian Gobbi

December 31st, 2009 3:31pm Report this comment

This of course has been the Tories' problem for the past four years but is now critical in the extreme given the proximity of what will be overwhelmingly an economics election.

Cameron does doesn't/can't do figures and Osborne is disliked, distrusted and disrespected. If Cameron really did put Party first Osborne would be replaced and the Tories might then begin to gain some much needed traction on this matter.

Peter From Maidstone

December 31st, 2009 3:40pm Report this comment

It's not hard to communicate what Labour has done, but for some reason the media do not want to.

Labour has brought the country to the edge of bankruptcy. The national credit card has been maxed out. There is no more money in the account and Labour has committed us to bills that we can't pay.

Yeah but...

December 31st, 2009 3:43pm Report this comment

yes, so reckless that at one point Cameron and Osborne decided to stick to his spending levels!

Nicholas

December 31st, 2009 4:05pm Report this comment

I concur with emil. It's all very well stating the the Tories should make people understand this or that but the means of mass communication are in the hands of people sympathetic to the Left, regardless of the extraordinary rotten nature of the current government - or, perhaps more accurately, antipathetic to the Tories.

Anything the Tories say is subject to immediate and invariably hostile scrutiny of the most partisan type whilst the government/New Labour party (indistinguishable one from the other) make the most outrageous statements and lies but get away with it.

The BBC is now complicit in the most brazen propaganda on behalf of the odious deceiver Brown and his horrible entourage - I provided one example on the Wall - but they also appear to get away with it. The masses may feel hostility and resentment to all this but the narrative is in the hands of the minority Left.

The way New Labour & BBC propaganda operates hand in glove needs to be exposed and more widely condemned for the scandal it is. The grip of the Left and Lefties on public life and the public narrative needs to be broken.

denis cooper

December 31st, 2009 4:27pm Report this comment

I very much doubt that the Tories are up to this task.

They seem content with an election strategy along these lines:

1. The Labour Party has made an awful mess of lots of things.

2. We're not the Labour Party.

3. Therefore you should vote for us.

It may even work.

Bunnykins

December 31st, 2009 4:30pm Report this comment

While they're at it, maybe the Tories should also make the public understand just how much damage Brown has done to the social cohesion of the nation - but they won't.

Martyn Rowe

December 31st, 2009 4:38pm Report this comment

Just pay for zillions of posters, billboards and videos with Brown's big grisly face on them and the words "The man who wrecked Britain" splashed as a headline.

That'll do.

Ian C

December 31st, 2009 4:49pm Report this comment

I can't agree that the media have been supine - recently. The Times, Torygraph, Daily Fascst and Express have all made their opinions well known. The one that matters, The Sun, did so last September in full fanfare.

The BBC (and Sky we are told but I never watch Sky News) are the real culprits. When they become the story for being so wet their tune will change.

The problem is more deep seated than this. We are all just out of confidence in our political system. Parties and their leaders therefore have a really uphill struggle to convince us that they can do anything until they are in a position to do something.

It therefore matters little what anyone says beyond 'trust me, we're better than the other lot'.

Martyn Rowe

December 31st, 2009 4:50pm Report this comment

As for the supine nature of the media. Consider this lickle passage from page 463 of Tom Bower's book "Gordon Brown Prime Minister"...

"(Brown's) retaliation was to feed the media machine with his own interpretation of the mid-year crisis. Summoning his friends at The Times, he repeated what he had been telling Robert Peston, a friendly journalist who was writing a book that Brown hoped would publicise his version of history."

The piece is about Brown's 2004 attempts to oust Blair, and his constant stream of misinformation passed to friendly journalists through his knucklescraping acolytes (Balls, Mcbride and co), in a bid to shine a poor light on Blair. A verbatim piece like this could be used to spell out how he has treated the economic crisis and those (the Tories) who dispute his take on life. He'll never change.

And what is Peston's job these days? Hmm. I wonder if Brown still considers him a 'friendly'. Probably.

*Apologies for the nerdiness. Too much pre New Year gin.

Tom Pride

December 31st, 2009 4:52pm Report this comment

A way to get across what a gilt strike means?

If Labour carries on wasting money it does not have then between now and the election there is chance that the Government will not be able to pay public sector salaries, pensions and welfare benefits in full and on time.

“You’re not going to get PAID!”

And call the Great Porker the liar he is.

Sally Forth

December 31st, 2009 4:59pm Report this comment

I,m not sure how much more patience the markets will have this deficit and the case might not need to be made by the Tories. A pre-election credit rating downgrade and any subsequent negative market reaction will be as obvious as being forced out of the ERM. Most people would have struggled to explain the workings of the ERM in 1992 but they could recognise things going badly wrong when it happened the way it did.(Even if it was beneficicial!)
Like a number of others I'm staggered by the Tories inability to make this disater stick. I only wish I thought that they could do it without a downgrade to help.

Noa Zrk

December 31st, 2009 5:03pm Report this comment

Nearly 70@ of the eligible electorate dis-enfranchise themselves by never voting unless they feel threatened.
Politicians understand this perfectly well and seek to obtain or maintain power by buying these "sleepers" votes. Brown may have ruined the UK in doing so but this policy has been remarkably successful in keeping him in power. Further, in portraying Cameron and the Conservative leadership as patricians remote from the concerns of 'real people' he is simlpy following a strategy used by politicians to placate mobs throughout history, from ancient Greece and Rome to Mao's China.
David Cameron has excellent opportunities to challenge Brown's gross economic mis-management and divisive class strategy. He has so far failed to do so in any meaningful way.

Holly ......

December 31st, 2009 5:07pm Report this comment

The majority of the voters that matter understand completely what Brown & Labour have done.
The minority that don't matter, don't matter.Whether they understand or not important.
Once the shirkers are sorted,a percentage of them will go on to make more of their lives and become the next Tory voters.
A percentage of them won't.
They have had it their way for a decade, now it's the workers turn again.
Did the shirkers worry about us paying taxes to keep them?
NO.
So do not call us nasty when we pay them less and keep more pay for ourselves and our families.
New Years Revolution.
Long overdue.

Chuck Unsworth

December 31st, 2009 5:10pm Report this comment

@ Denis Cooper

Well it certainly worked for NuLab...

Chris

December 31st, 2009 5:22pm Report this comment

The link to Rosemary Righter's article doesn't work.

Catherine

December 31st, 2009 5:33pm Report this comment

The Tories should simply call in the IMF - blaming Gordon Brown & Labour for the need to do this. Let the IMF make big cuts in state salaries and pensions to balance the national budget.

JONNY

December 31st, 2009 5:43pm Report this comment

Cameron understands what a good many of the posters here clearly don't.
Voters naturally shie off mega-trillion figures of economic ruin and draconian hardship. However truthful.
As with global warning, they turn a self-protective blind eye and a deaf ear.
And if he did pile on more of the Cassandra act he'd bomb out as Apostle of Doom.
Then he'd have brilliantly succeeded in nailing himself not Brown.
And then what a field day we'd all have with him.

Alexander Pelling

December 31st, 2009 5:45pm Report this comment

Thomas Cussans:

You are right that the electorate had no difficulty in grasping the mess that Labour (and the Tory Left) made of things in the seventies but then the signs were there for all to see. The public will not understand that there is a real problem until the problem takes on tangible form, and a debt is in itself nothing more than a government statistic (and a highly misleading one at that).

The real problem for the Tories is that with the government in complete denial and a general election coming soon the first sign that the nation is in real financial trouble will for most people be when Cameron's new government tries to do something about the fiscal problems by cutting spending. That will be when the problem first becomes tangible - because spending cuts will hurt - and the pain will immediately and probably quite successfully be spun by the Left/media as the usual consequences of the nasty Tories being up to their old tricks.

It is therefore absolutely essential for the Tories to level with the electorate before the election about the depth of the problem and the nature of the physick. If they don't they will be in a position where they will be blamed for the pain caused by the cure, and this will only breed reluctance to administer it.

The Tories must above all tell the truth and make their stand on it. In the end, the nation will have to come to them. If they are too hungry for power, and shie away from the unpalatable, they will win in the short run only to find their credibility swiftly becomes as shredded as is Labour's. That would be a disaster for the Conservatives and for the country.

Andy Leeds

December 31st, 2009 5:51pm Report this comment

The Tories need to hammer the message at every single turn, but it needs to be a very simple message. I would also use ridicule: mock Brown at every verse end for having ended 'boom & bust' and having given us the mother of all 'booms & busts'. The more the make him seem an idiot the lower his stock will fall. And they should do it without mercy and give no quarter. Brown deserves no mercy.

Snowman

December 31st, 2009 6:03pm Report this comment

I reckon the premise of this blog misses the point.

The great unwashed understand better than the pundits the damage done by nuLabour, (hence the boost to the savings ratio), but a sizeable minority is unwilling to let go (those who are fed through transfer payments), and the others simply cannot figure whom to vote for to put it right, (hence the reluctance to back the Tories fully).

The pinky balladeer N. Coward foresaw it well: ‘There are bad times just round the corner, and the outlook’s absolutely vile’.

jon dee

December 31st, 2009 6:16pm Report this comment

If Brown gets away with the lies and deceptions which have brought the UK to its knees, he will surpass the greatest confidence trick of them all, that of "New Labour".

Tory politeness, combined with an unwillingness to face up to Labour,when the need has never been greater, is profoundly disturbing.

Meanwhile, the BBC, apparently unconcerned by the recession, snipes its partisan message loud and clear, in the hope that it will avoid being toppled from its feather-bedded luxury, by the possibility of a Tory government.

Patience runs thin waiting for a Tory message that will convince the many that Brown's Labour is destroying the nation.

Thomas Cussans

December 31st, 2009 6:17pm Report this comment

Alexander P:

I couldn't agree more. Which is why it is dismaying that these central and simple truths are not being spelt out as starkly and as clearly as possible. It is Cameron's most obvious failing. But that does not change the other fundamental point: that, exploiting the natural bien-pensant 'liberal' bias of the media, NuLabour have ruthlessly imposed their warped version of reality.

The pain of what you call the physick will indeed be brutal. Dave and Co. have a clear duty to spell out precisely whose fault it is – and the sooner the better. But they will still be plodding their way against most of the media's bias.

In an ideal world, of course (Ha! Ha! and Ha! again), Brown would long since have been exposed as a cheap and very nasty charlatan. It is astounding that he has got away with so much for so long.

RobertD

December 31st, 2009 6:39pm Report this comment

Make it simple.

Next year
Everything collected from VAT will go on debt interest
All income tax collected will be spent on welfare benefits
All our spending on the NHS and education will be with borrowed money.

How much more brutally simple than that can you make it.

Sevo Slade

December 31st, 2009 6:49pm Report this comment

Sadly, clearly put economic argument is simply beyond the comprehension of the average denizen of these islands. However, Brits of every social class love to travel abroad, especially to France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and other European destinations. Simply publish a graph showing the decline of sterling against the euro in the past 3 years. Believe me, the "Torremolinos Now Beyond Reach Thanks To Broon" argument will do more damage than a dozen World Bank warnings.

emjay

December 31st, 2009 7:05pm Report this comment

The Tories' problem is that, Hague apart, they've got no-one with any gravitas.
Except for Ken Clarke of course and perhaps if 'Dave' were to find a way of easing Boy George out of his comfy chair and instal Ken in his place people might start to look at things a bit differently.
They're all too wet, and I don't mean in the Thatcherite sense; they're just a bunch of drips and the few that might be of some use (Fox,Gove, and a couple of others) don't have the profile.
I'll vote for them but not with any great confidence that they'll change much or that they even know how to.

Percy

December 31st, 2009 7:25pm Report this comment

Catherine - quite agree, Dave should have a couple of months looking at the books, tell us it's a catastrophe, call in the IMF and let them take the heat.

Mark M

December 31st, 2009 7:31pm Report this comment

Then the Tories need to explain what a gilts strike or ratings downgrade would mean to most voters.

The only way the Tories can win the argument in the eyes of the electorate is to start saying "we will cut by £X bn, or Labour's policies will risk a [downgrade/gilt strike] and the effect of this will be cuts of £Y bn".

Is that so hard for them to get across?

Mitch

December 31st, 2009 10:46pm Report this comment

How about "gordons borrowed enough to give every person on planet earth £2000".

Barbara

December 31st, 2009 10:50pm Report this comment

Ordinary people see the credit crunch has being created by greedy bankers, and they had nothing to do with it. That is true to some degree, but debt has been rife in this country for far to long and allowed to happen unhindered. Learning to make do and mend will have to come to us all, but for me and my family it's no problem has we've always had to do it. We know what it means to go without, to only have what one can pay for and no debt. The people that have lived the high life and known nothing else will have a culture shock when it hits they should prepare themselves now, when your poor one has to live within ones means, hold your head up high and live right, it looks like more will be joining our league. The Tories will cause more heartache just has they did before, and this government as played a dangerous game with the nations money,I don't like their way of doing things their kind of government at all its far to way like the old Stalinistic government for me, and their social engineering on immigration was the final betrayal, for me it will be one of the new parties those who are not tainted with lies, stealing, and cheating.

Roger Davies

January 1st, 2010 8:37am Report this comment

It is not only the magnitude of the problem, but the necessary medicine that must be explained. I see no reason why the cuts in Public waste should not already be imposed and the budget reduced to 1997 levels. Massively cut Public Spending, cut taxation on jobs and repeal every act that this vile Gov. has imposed on us. It would seem that nobody in the media or even here are prepared to detail the bitter medicine necessary to return our debts to <40% of GDP and how long we will need to be medicated. Come on Fraser you and your mates must have access to computer models of the UK economy, so where are the scenarios?
Here's wishing you a very Scrooge like year.

Bunnykins

January 1st, 2010 8:55am Report this comment

Perhaps Dave, realising that the attention-span of most people is woefully short,is saving up all the best rhetoric for the weeks just before the elections....

Moraymint

January 1st, 2010 8:58am Report this comment

I fear that it will only be when a few million of those of our citizens dependent on the state - either through employment or in receipt of benefits - feel the effects of Brown's incompetence in their pockets, will the nation's mood change.

The problem is that for as long as we can print money, the state will avoid bankruptcy: look at Japan. If the prospect (or reality) is a gilts strike, would any new Prime Minister be able to resist the temptation of running up the printing presses again (I know we don't actually print the stuff ...)?

Perhaps the other factor in all of this would, therefore, be the total collapse of the pound? Since we rely so heavily on imports - especially for energy and food - having millions of UK citizens going both cold and hungry and unable to (afford to) drive/travel to work might also change the mood somewhat?

Whichever way you look at it, the scale of this Labour government's incompetence is, well, off the scale. It must surely be totally unprecedented for a peacetime government to make such an utter mess of running the country?

Meantime, the fat, dumb and happy Brit just bowls along watching the X-Factor, reading his tabloid, going down the pub and wondering what all the fuss is about (if he even does that - he'd get no hint from the BBC).

When the SHTF - for hit the fan it must - there's going to be hell to pay in this country. My money's on things going into meltdown from the second half of 2010 and into 2011 (because the Tories are largely clueless as to how to deal with this crisis). God only knows what's actually going to happen then, but civil unrest must be a high probability, such is Brown's appalling legacy.

Mikerophone

January 1st, 2010 10:16am Report this comment

The Conservatives should show the UK's debt counter at every given chance and check it's progress throughout the campaign so the people can see the country getting poorer by the second.

JONNY

January 1st, 2010 11:44am Report this comment

For gawdsake stop knocking Boy George.
Those who know him tell us he's a very clever young politician indeed.
You may not fancy the image, but just watch this space awhile.
See if he turns out to be the most innovative Chancellor since Nigel Lawson.
Now surely that might be a welcome change from the dreary Scot currently simpering away at the post.

Simon Stephenson

January 1st, 2010 1:29pm Report this comment

Yes, Moraymint (8.58am), I think you're right. When Blair and Clinton sought large-scale political popularity, they did so by destroying the structure that gave the intelligentsia an effective veto over political decision-making. What a wheeze! Gather the support of all the teenage logicians by making teenage logic the driving force behind national politics.

There was no need to be concerned about the downsides of doing this, because teenage logic isn't sophisticated enough to deal with multi-consequences, nor does it embrace personal responsibility for unwelcome outcomes that are the result of negligence.

It's win-win for the cynical, useless politician - take credit for anything that goes right (or can be promoted as having gone right) and blame all the negative outcomes on someone else.

Geoff Miller

January 1st, 2010 1:36pm Report this comment

You are right but I continue to wonder why the Tories are so lame?

They have open goals on Public Finance, postal voting frauds, mass immigration designed to change the demographics of the UK for political reasons, a voting system that is grossly tilted in favour of Labour, wars against Islamist extremism abroad and pandering to Islamist at home in order to win the "muslim" vote, wanton destruction of family, community, society, culture, Christianity, British history and so on.

Masses of Labour supporters have been given non-jobs in the public sector and Quango's, children, particularly white working class children, are being wantonly let down by state education, massive NHS spending increases have gone on massive pay rises and NOT service improvements, we have lost around 25% of our manufacturing base in 12 years.

The list goes on, and on, and on........

But the Tories seem incapable of addressing the issues that people are screaming in rage about. Now they are "cosying up" to the Islamic vote. they will not talk about immigration, crime, terror..or anything that concerns the public.

I suspect that they will win and we will be voting for New Labour Lite.

We need to watch very closely on the run up to the elections.

If we don't like what we hear then we should vote for ANYONE but the three main parties.

Then, perhaps, they may just start LISTENING.

Harry Hewitt

January 1st, 2010 5:27pm Report this comment

Which political party was Normon Lamont (famous for Black Wednesday) a member of?
In British politics and economics, Black Wednesday refers to the events of 16 September 1992 when the Conservative government was forced to withdraw the Pound Sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower limit. The most high profile of the currency market investors, George Soros, made over US$1 billion profit by short selling sterling. In 1997 the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.
The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800m, but the main loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The papers show that if the government had maintained $24bn foreign currency reserves and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4bn profit on sterling's evaluation Newspapers also revealed that the Treasury spent £27bn of reserves in propping up the pound.

echo34

January 1st, 2010 6:51pm Report this comment

optimist that i am, here's another scenario.

1997 - Tony Blair leads new labour to victory by charming the pants off middle england and watering labour down to appear more like the tories. The following ten years, New Labour reverts to typical labour policy cause tony's a pretty straight kinda guy.

2010 - Dave Cameron takes tories election victory by appearing to be a blue version of the labour party. Public jump up thinking a change is as good as rest, there you go DC. Tories revert to type shortly thereafter.

How deluded am i?

JohnBUK

January 1st, 2010 11:45pm Report this comment

Perhaps the issue is timing. If the Tories were to leap up and down now, scoring all the open goals available, by the time the election gets underway the message (from the public's point of view) would have lost a lot of it's power. Frustrating I know.

Cassandrina

January 2nd, 2010 10:18am Report this comment

I wonder if Cameron really wants power.
His supine performance over the last 2 months has not inspired people.
I can only hope that he is carefully planning this country's economic and social recovery from 10 years of incompetent government.
Oldrightie is right - Cameron needs to show he has leadership qualities, since he is up against a man that certainly has none, though has a Walter Mitty mentality and thinks he is an effective world leader.

Mark Tinker

January 2nd, 2010 4:42pm Report this comment

It's not just the finances he has wrecked, it is everything....A simple message repeated constantly, Better Government not Bigger Government would hit home and then a positive message: Let's mend Brown's Broke(n) Britain.

Michael Loup

January 2nd, 2010 5:08pm Report this comment

I have two suggestions. First,assume that it would be possible to "surcharge" Gordon Brown for his "damage" e.g. Selling gold reserves against advice from experts then; Secondly,examine a constitutionally valid way of restricting mistakes & placing a limit on certain expenditures e.g.NGOs & the Prime Minister's Office. Over the centuries it was vital to restrain the Monarch's power through the use of the armed forces. The country is faced with a new form of tyranny in the disguise of elected Governments who disregard constitutional conventions which have proved to be unenforceable. Starve the "Tyrant" of funds (the taxpayer's money) & the damage may be contained

Andrew Bristow

January 4th, 2010 8:06pm Report this comment

The Conservatives would get their message across more effectively on the UK fiscal position and the medicine required if they replaced George Osborne with Ken Clarke. I think "getting the message across" is partly about the listener respecting the person who is doing the explaining.

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