The Tories are frustrating, but Labour is unelectable

James

This post is ridiculous and goes to the heart of the problem of the media.

The Tories have to get a swing bigger than any recorded in recent history to get a decent majority. They have a healthy lead in the polls - but due to the current electoral boundaries this may not be enough. Labour will not come close to winning on popular vote.

The problem the Tories have is the Media narrative. If the Tories state the cold hard truth, Labour and the MSM ambush them for being too negative. If they go visionary and upbeat, Labour and the MSM hammer them for being without policy. If they give a decent policy, Labour either steal it or use the civil service resources to rebut it - all of this with little scruting from the MSM.

The fact that MSM even give Labour announcements a fair hearing - when they are clearly bonkers and never likely to be implemented astonishes me.

The Tories have a mountain to climb - they have to fend off the left-wing press, fend off their own press (Spectator - this means you) and also have to ascend an electoral mountain that should technically be out of their reach.

The best thing is - looks like they might pull it off.

Chris R

so... the Lib Dems then?

Noa Zrk

I consider your analysis and conclusions to be correct.
The parallels with Major's last days are palpable.
That is why the contrast between Blair's sure hunter's instinct then, which killed the Conservatives for 14 years and Cameron's hesitant probings at the dying beast are so apparant.

Tiberius

A very good post, James.

David: I disagree with your excuse of frustration as the reason for giving the Tories short shrift. It's either a loss of nerve, or a ruse to get your traffic level raised. If the latter, it has certainly worked.

Sarah

Excellent post from James above.
Agree totally with what he says regarding the media. The contrast could not have been more stark yesterday, with hardly any criticism in the press, particularly on BBC, of Labour's incoherence in its message and blatant contradictions between PM and Chancellor, whereas mr Cameron got a bashing for minor semantics. How the PM gets away in the press with his constant half-truths and distortions just beggars belief.

Man in a Shed

I have to applaud James' comment also. It goes to the heart of the dysfunction in our democracy right now.

@Chris R - is there any legitimate question the answer to which is The Lib Dems ?

Chris

@Man in a Shed

How about - 'choose a party who haven't already shown to be utterly incompetent?'

Moraymint

James
January 5th, 2010 6:21pm

James, I'm just not convinced that the Conservative Party has a clear underlying political philosophy, a vision for the UK over the next 10 - 20 years and a set of realistic and achievable policies to fulfil that vision.

On the occasions that I do hear what the Tories are saying, the subject is either ambiguous or inconsistent with some other announcement or grandiose and/or unworkable or unfunded or overly detailed and trivial or all of the above at the same time (which takes some doing). I keep concluding that the Tories are rudderless; clueless; pointless.

What we (ie anyone not idiotic enough to be minded to vote Labour) want is:

Small government (ideally with state spending driven down to below 40% of GDP).
Belief in individuals' having the initiative and industry to better themselves (in preference to betterment being foist upon them incompetently by a clumsy, nanny state = welfare dependency).
Sound defence and security.
Incentives for wealth creation (place this one at the heart of the economy).
Recovery of law-making from the EU to Parliament.
A strong Parliament where individual MPs (not party apparatchiks) hold the Executive properly to account.
The systematic destruction of political correctness, eg treating conventional (man/woman/children) marriages as inherently preferable to, say, lesbian marriages (common sense really, isn't it?), and the reining in of rampant, stifling 'elf-n-safety madness.
Immigration control (another common sense one this, eh?).
Energy security (without which, forget all of the above; we'd move into the New Dark Age).

There's probably a few more principles to be added to my list, but those are the golden ones.

I defy the Conservative Party to speak lucidly and with conviction about any one of the principles on above list, let alone several of them, still less the lot as a coherent whole! And yet doesn't my list reflect what many (most?) people think of as conservatism?

Common sense tells me that my list above, converted into practical actions over a period of, say, 5 years or so, could/would significantly enhance the quality of life of British citizens in the medium to long term.

Chances of any political party delivering on a clear, simple, common sense manifesto like this? Chances of pigs flying?

ajs

Great God - the BBC again..the Conservatives after they are the Government, should appoint Baroness James as Chairman of the BBC with a remit to clean it out, and make it commercially viable - or shut it down. And its £billions of worth can go to reduce the National Debt.

Alastair

I agree with James.

Why do the media even listen to Labour. Labour lies. Why pretend they know what they are talking about. Their own party is bankrupt - they still run a final pay pension scheme for their own staff - which shows how financially innumerate they are.

This election will be about personal integrity NOT manifesto promises.

teledu

Considering how awful and easily parodied Brown, Balls, Straw, Milliband, Harman etc. are, you'd think the "comedians" who appear on our screens (on shows like "The Impressionists") would have a field day. But.....nothing.
Major & Thatcher never escaped the "wit" of such folk.

strapworld

I am with Moraymint on this, The problem is PR and Cameron is proving he aint good at that either! VAPID is how Mr Nelson decribes him and the way he sways on almost every issue is quite dangerous.

He is weak, at a time the country needs strength, He agrees far too much with Brown, when the country wants and desires someone who will kick Brown into touch. He is unable to address the problems that ARE within the NHS, indeed he makes it untouchable at a time the Country is aware that there are far too many quango's,especially within the NHS, draining mountains of public money,upon which Cameron's policy is..err I cannot recall him mentioning them. I could be wrong. The Country wants someone who will tell them the truth and Cameron is conducting himself in a similar fashion to Blair, so are we going to get much of the same?

Finally Mr Blackburn says the Tories have 'to a certain extent' the right team! Well I disagree There are no street fighters about and by golly we need them.

Cameron may well win, but will we all live to regret it? I fear so.

JONNY

Problem is Moraymint
they don't want 'conservatism' as you here ably define it.
Poll after poll proves they much prefer Cameron to their (unpleasant) image of the Conservative Party.
Tories are a bit like those old Amplex ads - remember them?
The complacent one in the centre and the two either side holding their noses.
Forgive me saying it - you are so naive.
You haven't the foggiest how tough and treacherous it is to lead a party like ours.
You're like a boy of ten thinking it's easy to drive dad's car.

St Bruno

The BBC and British newspapers are putting forward the Tories under the leadership of Mr Cameron and the New Labour under the presumed leadership of Mr Brown as the only two parties worthy of a vote. To quote: I have not got where I am today without knowing this is not quite democratic. There are other voices in the wilderness that ought to be heard, even if you yourself disagree with what they say. I know it is early days yet, anything can happen. Think I could not stand five more months of this stuff.

I am afraid the British establishment is in for a shock or two. Let us have a quiet considered debate where policies are discussed so a proper understanding and choice can be made, not a stone throwing, willy waving rant of would-be politicians, metaphorically of course.

Colin

"Labour deserves to lose,"

You may well be correct with that statement. However, it does not mean that the Tories deserve to win, and that's the problem.

Like many other regular readers of the postings on this web site, I long for a reason to vote Tory. The fact that they are not the Labour party doesn't count.

Like many people in the country, I'm sick and fed up of the lying, cheating, hedging, vacillating, incompetent, self serving behaviour of our political class. I really want a change. The problem is, I don't see that change coming from the Tories. I certainly don't see that change coming from the Lib Dems.

Where are the big ideas?

Tory strategists probably think they can do enough to get in, without making too many commitments in relation to radical policy changes. They might be in for a nasty surprise...

Moraymint

Johnny, the aim is not to lead a party through toughness and treachery. The aim is to lead the country from Marxist, socio-economic madness and the verge of bankruptcy to national stability, security and prosperity.

Forgive me, but you sound like the worst sort of cynical politician, more interested in the art of politics itself than in politics as a means to an end.

Comments like yours do make me despair somewhat of our political class and political wonks.

If a few more politicians spent less time on the toughness and treachery of politics and a little more time listening to us 10 year olds, my money would be on a better country emerging at the end.

On the other hand, I fear/suspect that treating the electorate as 10 year olds and getting on with the toughness and treachery of politics will be the ongoing arrangements in Westminster.

We'll see how this continuing approach to politics helps the country back on its feet over the next few years, I guess. If indeed more-of-the-same-politics pervades, my money is on serious and perhaps unprecedented civil unrest within 3 years at the most - on the back of slow-burning socio-economic disintegration.

How about a £1,000 bet? I'll bet that the Conservatives will gain office, but that within 3 years there'll be serious trouble on the streets. Such is my concern at the vacuity of Conservative Party preparedness to govern (or, rather, drive the car).

strapworld

Jonny, if anyone is displaying naivety it is, without doubt, you. Your insulting rants are so so childish.

Just remember that under Maggie the tories knew exactly what the game plan was, and it was achieved. Under Cameron it appears that each day he is saying things opposite to yesterday. He is w e a k!

That said I know far more than you will ever know of the deception, treachery and double dealing in the glorious Tory Party. It goes back a long long way. BUT the politicians that led the Tories had their vision and strength of character to lead by example. That is what is missing in this weak, all things to all men, visionless party led by the weak man Cameron.

With you as his supporter it sums it all up really. You are welcome to him.

Dame DeVille

@James @Jonny
Quite agree; slagging off DC and Torys from a Conservative position is damaging, risky and hopelessly naive. The country is as it is and the huge swings required for a Tory Government to replace Labour means presenting a centre ground set of policies getting only the 35% who'd vote for full-on rightish policies means losing for a 4th consecutive time; hoping Labour wins in order that things get so bad something politically catastrophic happens is merely cutting off your nose to spite your face!

Cameron and his Shad Cabinet are Conservatives all right but fixing our broken nation will require building consensuses and coalitions as well as maintaining good relations with the EU no matter how distasteful this may be; we are flat broke, at war home and abroad and in big trouble! Gestures and political purity are of no use in fixing this.

Furthermore the Torys are hated by many people, the Etonian Toff Gibe has traction! The Torys have to tread carefully as James post indicates.

One you have the Majority the entire position changes and I back Cameron to be both pragmatic and by instinct a Tory as PM. He needs a decent win, then he can tackle our problems starting with the deficit (as he has stated).

Nicholas

I agree with James excellent post too. He neatly encapsulates the whole problem and ajs provides the solution. If elected the Tories need to kill leftist bias in the BBC forever.

R King

Tories should state that they will do whatever is necessary to reduce the debt when they have a full set of figures in front of them. i.e. gives us all the facts Brown and we will give the details.
Next they should spend the next 5 months labour bashing. Ridicule them for their uselessnes.
Play dirty!!

djw2009

David, you say "at the best, the Tories have the policies and team". True. But Cameron's Tory Party is emphatically not Toryism at its best. He does not have the policies - notice how he supported Brown's spending until very recently, and so shares as much responsibility for our financial plight as Brown (a fact that Labour has not emphasised, because to do so would require admitting that Brown's policies lie behind the depth of the recession). He is pro-EU; he is pro-multiculturalism; he is pro-bureaucracy. Otherwise, why wouldn't he announce plans to close down hundreds of quangos and abolish the race relations industry in week one of his government? He is not a conservative, in fact, and is imposing these female candidates on the constituencies, whose main attribute is their lack of commitment to conservative politics. And the team? Well, the Thatcher period shows that only one Tory (Thatcher herself) was worthy of the name, and she was surrounded by pygmies. They are all pygmies today. Toryism at its best is what I want to vote for; but it is not on offer. I do not buy the argument of voting for the least bad party. Cameron does not deserve to win - in fact, he should not even be a member of the Conservative party, as he fundamentally disagrees with the philosophy of conservatism - and I will not vote for him. I am hoping for a hung parliament so the Tories can defenestrate him.

Hysteria

what Moraymint said - both times.

John

Good post James. You too Johnny.
Nelson and his gang think it's great fun to bash up Cameron and Co at every opportunity.
They're conservatives and are confident of a Tory victory in May. So a bit of Tory bashing doesn't do any harm and increases their (Fleet) street cred. Very naive.
I've said it on previous posts: journalists are political amateurs. Cameron and Co are pros. They have an election to win and they have to do whatever it takes.
Once you're in office, you can take off the kid gloves.

2trueblue

With the defecit that Labour has created who the hell would want to inherit the poisoned chalice? We have had a paucity of real reporting over the past 14yrs and this has enabled Labour to devalue everything decent in our society. Labour has managed to manipulate our whole structure and debase everything. I do not think that the tories have all the answers but the BBC and the press are doing a grand job of pointing us the way they want it and we are following.
An election later rather than earlier would be better as the true state of our economic situation will be clearer by then and Labours lies will revealed.

THX1138

But the Tories have got a secret weapon the giant towering intellect of Steve Hilton, "The Mekon" to my favourite back woodsman TGF.

The FT have got hold of some of his strategy bulletins and great fun reading they are too.

They're full of the kind of eco waffle & general flim flam like “strong society” & “social responsibility” & plenty of mentions of Obama in glowing light ("The Thick of It" without the swearing) that will have the average Coffee Houser spluttering on the last of their Christmas ginger wine & dashing off to UKIP. If they haven't already!

http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/01/the-steve-hilton-strategy-bulletins/

Naturally reading them only increased my desire to put my cross in the Dave's box come May.

canonalberic

Maybe its invigorating for the committed to be insultingly challenged by smug journalists from their public sector waged bully-pulpits; but the truth for the frightened and enlightened majority who voted enthusiastically for The Man is that Father Jack and his cowardly myrmidons are unelectable and only the BBC thinks anyone might vote for Clegg because of evil tory bastards..........when it comes to it most people will vote honestly by conviction and they will have to vote tory.
These essential votes could be consolidated or lost - get real and get behind them you are playing into the no-overall-majority nightmare and if it happens you will never be forgiven.

Rubber

jonny.

Why the capital letters?

You say nothing of value.

Herbert Thornton

Pretend that immigration is not a problem. Pretend that Europe is of no possible interest to anybody. Pretend (if you're a Tory) that hardly anybody will vote Labour. Pretend (if you're a Labour supporter) that more people will vote Labour than will vote Tory.

Speak vaguely and use platitudes and pretend that you are defining important policies. Pretend that nobody will vote for UKIP. And above all pretend that the BNP does not exist.

Pretend, pretend, pretend.

gareth

thanks for that blog James - you hit it dead on.

JohnAnt

"Labour deserves to lose" but the Tories haven't yet worked out how to win. Fudges (and even reverses) on the EU, on tax, economic policy, even on general aims, apart from motherhood and apple-pie.
Noa Zrk - absolutely right: Cameron can't circle Brown in the fatal way Blair and Labour did with Major in 1996-1997. It's not just that Cameron can't find where to stick the boot into Brown. He doesn't even seem to be able to locate his boot.

mitch

Davey boys message just isn't clear! to much waffle about nothing.
Hammer brown on his record debt and the rest will follow.

Verityred

Strapworld, do you actually have anything else in your life apart from the noises in your head that result in you spouting the same nonsense on here over and over again?

Or are you a troll with an unpleasant agenda?

Stephen

I just wonder if the Tories may do better in the Election than the Polsters think. If I were a traditional "core" Labour voter whilst I might not have the nerve to tell a Pollster I would not be voting Labour, actually on the day I would not! Labour supporters have little to proud of Blair Iraq Dodgy Dossiers an Economy that is bust, I could go on and I did'nt even mention the shambling dishonnest PM! Labour and proud of it-I doubt it. Stay at home on Election Day!

Fergus Pickering

Do we really want Cameron to be like Blair in any way. Surely Blair is the worst Prime Minister we gave ever had - except of course... Blair lies habitually. He goes to war (and therefore kills people) to fuel his egotism. he couldn't bear that Maggie was a 'war leader' and he loved the idea of little children cheering him in tghe streets. He is essentially a stupid, shallow man who equates the job of Prime Minister with that of the leader of a pop group which total lack of talent prevented him from being. Do any of you want Cameron to be like that? I do hope not. Cameron to me seems essentially a decent sort of a man, not stupid, not Maggie's equal but very possibly a better man than John Major. We shall see. Perhaps Blair was better at grabbing power, but grabbing power is not enough, is it? There is a man's work (or a woman's work) to be done. Is Cameron the man. Well, he's the best man available. That has to be good enough. It is good enough.

Sancho

"Annihilation should be a matter of course."

But we all know it won't be. If Brown is at heart a class warrior then Dave is at heart a fundamentally small c "conservative": too cautious and too careful. He might argue that he "needs to look Prime Ministerial" but that's the problem. There is no fire in his belly. No real anger. No real passion. No amount of money or organization can create an individual into something he is not: a true Radical, which is what we need.

Sure a PM who needs to show he can do gravitas and stay above the fray. But he sometimes needs to also get down amongst us little people and get stuck in the mud and lay a few blows. can he do that?

Cuffleyburgers

I would like to see Cameron, Osborne, Clarke, Gove, Hague and Lansley all making the same point that it is not just how much you spend of public services, it is how you spend it - labour have sluiced over a trillion pounds at education and the NHS over and oabove what they would have done had they simply increased spending in line with inflation (pace David Craig's outsanding book, "squandered") to very little visible effect.

That is the point they have to make.

It's not f**king rocket science, and is a measure that even a labour educated halfwit, even a f**king cabinet minister should be able to understand.

The success and good management of piblic services is got measured by spending but by outcomes.

Plenty of countries spend less on health nd have healthier populations. Plenty spend less on education and have more literate, more numerate workforces, the best universities in England are the same as they were 50 years ago and for a very good reason, because of the culture of excellence not because of spending.

The tories should be able to make a very convincing case without frightening the horses and without giving away hostages to fortune in terms of unsustainable commitments or leaving open goals for labour's liars.

ANd then after the election, a big clear out at the BBC.

The other point they must insist on repeatedly, is that Labour have betrayed the British people on Europe. This is not the time to be picking fights with Brussels, however there will be no more gold plating, there will be a moratorium on contributions until proper accounting practices are in place plus we will follow our own foreign policy as suits our enlightened best interests. Nobody really knows what the consequences of Lisbon will be in many respects (make the point that this was why Brown was so stupid not to use his veto) At some point in the future our relationship will be reviewed once things are clearer and we are in a stronger position to take individual action. Not an unreasonable position I would say.

the shade of dr kelly

well written james.

the simple answer if the tories get in is to ban the bbc from making news and political documentaries etc and purely focus on entertainment andnature docs etc!

cost savings would be massive in cutting global news offices, reporter and team costs, website etc etc.

Victor Southern

James - thank you for the clarity of that post.

jonny - carry on sticking up for Cameron against the 1950's Tories.

The Conservatives do indeed have a great hill to climb to achieve power. Most of the Press is against them full time or part time. The Times and Telegraph are trying to present a neutrality. The Guardian, Mirror, Independent have no such scruples.

Only the Sun and the infuriating Daily Express are 100% pro-Tory.

The Mail is the paper of those same 1950's Tories.

The Beeb is leftish through and through and Sky's political comments are ruled by Adam Boulton, Labour afficionado.

Now we have Fraser Nelson and Dave Blackburn working hard to denigrate everything that Cameron says and does.

Brown and his cohorts are laughing, oddly in Brown's case. He largely escapes censure for being the Lord of Misrule.

Chuck Unsworth

@ ajs

Exactly. My one reservation is whether she's tough enough to take on all the entrenched lefties - it's a systemic problem.

James Delingpole

@JONNY @James and your gushing admirers. Keep drinking the Kameron Kool-Aid, chaps!

Herbert Thornton

Although it may at present seem unthinkable, a writer in the Guardian recently floated the frightening idea of the possibility of a Labour/Tory coalition.

Any Conservative who can swallow that can surely swallow anything. But the sad thing is that Cameron looks more and more like a man who will happily swallow anything, just so long as it makes him Prime Minister.

In the salutary event of the next election producing a hung Parliament it is to be hoped that instead of making the Guardian nightmare a reality, genuine Conservatives who understand where the national interest lies will wash their hands of Cameron and seek to form an alliance not just with UKIP, but with the BNP, with the aim of actually addressing the two most serious problems that British people have faced for centuries and that are causing such universal frustration and even despair.

The are of course the British people's deep desire for independence from Europe and their alarm at the results of excessive immigration, especially the growth of U.K. based terrorism.

Cassandrina

I believe we all agree that this government is possibly the weakest and most incompetent government we have had for many decades, yet still Cameron is not able to land hard blows on them, even after this so called failed coup on Brown.
First attack must be on the bbc and bring them to order, or at least make them show some semblence of impartiality in an election year.
This is not happening, and Cambell must address this issue now to set up a set killing field.

Wily Trout

Those who slag off Cameron are useful idiots. If the Tory vote is diluted the current lot will get back in, owing to the electoral boundary bias. At the moment we are not governed by politicians at all but by gangster, gamblers and shysters.
Vote Cameron in and THEN slag him off. That may help him to rediscover his inner conservative.

Mombasa69

Lol anyone that votes labour is total brain-dead retard.