The cost of living under Brown
Fraser Nelson 11:46am
The Conservatives have today published one of the best pieces of research I have seen them do in some time – a “cost of living” report to coincide with David Cameron campaigning in London today. Following on from a spread in The Sun last week, it focuses on what inflationary pressure means to families. Butter: up 37%. Eggs: up 34%. Bread: up 28%. Milk: up 17%. All since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. Can we blame Brown for such high inflation? Not really. But this blows a hole in his risible claims to be providing record low inflation.
With this research the Tories are brilliantly exploiting Del Brown’s addiction to statistical chicanery. We explain his various inflation tricks in Brownie no1. He gets away with his “Brownies” when the public is none the wider (i.e., extent of national debt etc). But when he claims to have achieved low inflation while the cost of groceries is soaring the public starts to smell a large, whiskered rat. The wider Tory point is this: you’re suffering, we understand, yet Brown claims you’ve never had it so good so he can’t be trusted. For as long as the PM is addicted to fake figures which jar with people’s experience, he is wide open to this powerful charge.



Previous





TGF UKIP
March 24th, 2008 12:20pm Report this commentLike all good propagandists, Brown knows that the key to the transmission of the message is repetition - you tell 'em, you tell 'em again, then you tell 'em what you've told 'em and then you tell 'em again. This, the Tories with their diffuse and often subliminal messages, have failed to grasp. And by the way Fraser, what a po-faced lot you Speccie hacks really are. All weekend I've been waiting for you to have some sport with Dave's bicycling misdemeanours, especially his failure to comply with a "Keep Left" sign, but not a word and not even a snigger from mike. Not a word from you either, I note, Fraser on last week's latest bit of uber anti-business political correctness from Dave either. Not getting embarrassed by your boy are you?
Ian C
March 24th, 2008 12:40pm Report this commentLink to the research not working. It needs to show what level Higher rate tax and NIC thresholds and Council Tax inflation has been too.
Dave B
March 24th, 2008 12:43pm Report this commentI think butter and milk have risen by more than that. Pasta too.
Colin Ross, London
March 24th, 2008 12:51pm Report this commentAnyone can check their personal rate of inflation on the Government's statistics web site http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pic/. My rate is currently closer 12% than 2% and was running at 17% last year. This backs up what Cameron is saying and we are seeing reflected in our bills.
Philip Martin
March 24th, 2008 1:12pm Report this commentFraser, I understand your point but have you ever bought your own groceries? All the items you mention might add £3 a week max to a family bill or the price of a pint more or less. It is dispiriting to see prices go up when you're on a small fixed income but these prices are not a problem for most of those in work. Considering many families throw a quarter to a third of the food they buy in the bin maybe some small inflationary pressures will make them think a bit about what they consume.
Scary
March 24th, 2008 1:56pm Report this commentCan we blame Brown for such high inflation? Not really. Oh yes we can! Margaret Thatcher warned us over 10 years ago that 'they [the socialists] always spend more'. This spending is inflationary. Ipso facto, we have higher inflation. The only reason Brown got away with it for so long was that unforseen external forces (the Far East) interveened to drag official inflation down, masking real, domestic inflation (e.g. the price of eggs) that soared unabated. Now that external effect has effectively ended, we are left once again with a mess of our own making. This inflation wouldn't be so bad if it was the result of an ecomony 'overheating' (as in previous booms) but the domestic economy outside the City and direct government spending is largely dead wood. The stock market languishes more-or-less exactly where it was 10 years ago, implying that Britain plc has made no net progress since Labour came to power, and the pound has recently fallen more than it fell on Black Wednesday, which in turn will create more inflation and put further downward pressure on Britain plc. Brown's only hope for saving the economy is savage cuts in government spending. If he is quick, the loss of this payroll vote will be outwighed by growth in private industry. Of course, what he'll actually do, is simply try to cling on to the monolith that he has created and leave reform - to create a stable balance between private and public - to his successor.
Scary
March 24th, 2008 1:57pm Report this commentYour link to Brownis No.1 is broken btw.
alexander
March 24th, 2008 2:01pm Report this commentWhy are the Tories so scared of cutting taxes?
CS
March 24th, 2008 2:02pm Report this comment***He gets away with his “Brownies” when the public is none the wider.*** I fail to see how the electorate's ability to detect price rises is linked to the national level of obesity.
Paul
March 24th, 2008 2:42pm Report this commentLink incorrect...Here it is corrected: http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=143152
TGF UKIP
March 24th, 2008 4:46pm Report this commentAlexander, it's not that they're scared of cutting taxes, it's just that Dave, like any good social democrat, doesn't believe in tax cuts. He's far happier promising to spend ever large amounts of our money, never of course on the armed forces where it's really needed, but on those good SocDem causes like the bottomless pit called the NHS (already costing every taxpayer £3,000 pa, by the way.)
TrevorH
March 24th, 2008 5:23pm Report this comment"All the items you mention might add £3 a week max to a family bill or the price of a pint more or less" Even if we were to take your figure at face value that is £150 per year before tax. A figure not to be sneezed at. Your view displays a gross naivety about inflation But of course anyone looking at their council tax bill increase will know full well that your suggestion that inflation is running at £150 a year is rubbish.
Fraser Nelson
March 24th, 2008 6:06pm Report this commentTGF, I agree in propaganda - Brown v good at "stability" message. Lets see if Tories have the attention span to hammer this message home. Dave B, the ONS figures actually suggest the Tories exaggerated somewhat, but Labour's financial rebuttal unit is closed down/running the DFES so they wont get caught. This time. Huge regional variations tho. Philip, look at the Tory research - the cost of a car is soaring, petrol at 107p/litre, fuel up 15%, mortgages plus rising tax burden - it all adds up to far more than £3 a week and a major politcial headache. Britain is divided into those who do and do not know how much a pint of milk costs. This story will resonate v much with the majority in the latter category. CS, guilty. Scary, I wish I could blame Brown for inflation - but look at the longer figures and most items I mention are cheaper in real terms. Some cheaper in nominal terms: teabags 148p/250g Jan08, v 156p on Mar98. Bananas 88p/kilo Jan08, v 104p in May97. So the Tories have chosen selectively. Supermarket competition has really hammered food prices down in the longer term (thanks Asda, Tesco et al) which is why the spike of inflation of the last nine months is such a shock.
David
March 24th, 2008 6:19pm Report this commentHaving read the report, I agree it is a very good analysis. It will be revealing to see if, when and how "Goebbels" Brown tries to repeat his 2% inflation claim following its publication. Alternatively, he may now shift his position to claiming that increasing HMGs high debt is actually good for us - and it is not a "black hole" after all unless it is for "unfunded Tory tax cuts". So far I have heard both Yvette Cooper and "Goebbels" Brown each say, in the past two or three weeks, that high government debt is good for us.
David Lindsay
March 24th, 2008 11:51pm Report this commentI laughed at loud, as I trust that you did, when I heard Cameron trying to make out that he had the first idea about the price of bread, milk, butter and eggs. He should be presented with a loaf of bread, a pint of milk, a pound of butter and a dozen eggs, and asked to say which was which. I bet he couldn't.
I also confidently assert that he has never paid rent. And anyone may see that there is no mortgage on any of his three houses, two of which are of course exempt from Council Tax.
All in all, it is no wonder that he isn't proposing any actual changes.
Concerning Oxbridge, to which Eton sent 95 people last year, I recently asked someone how good the ninety-fifth best Etonian in his year could possibly be. Good enough to be Leader of the Conservative Party, clearly.
Concerned
March 25th, 2008 8:45am Report this commentFraser, what kind of person has to hand historic data on the prices of bananas?
Fraser Nelson
March 25th, 2008 10:15am Report this commentDavid, when inflation is such a news item Tory MPs should memorise every single retail prices as they once memorised employment figures. They're new weapons in this political battle.
Back to top