An election victory is only the start of the battle for Cameron

Edward Palmer

The DfID budget should be frozen until such outrageous anomalies as the millions of pounds going to the TUC, which are then fed straight back to NuLab, are stopped.

djw2009

Fraser, John Major brought the problem of the rebels on himself. As a supposed conservative, he simply had no business signing up to Maastricht. The economic recovery was going to happen anyway after we left the ERM--and the ERM debacle itself was an "own goal" caused by the pro-EU non-conservatives--and public sector reform certainly did not proceed far when the government was still spending 40%+ of GDP when the creep left office. The idea that conservative backbenchers should be silent while a "conservative" government practises treason in return for minor tinkering with public services is ludicrous. Ultimately the national question is the most important one we face. Tory backbenchers simply must not acquiesce in whatever Dave and George want. The smaller the majority, the better.

Fergus Pickering

I'll settle for 38. Major had a load of 'bastards' rebelling over Europe. THAT is a cause. Moaning about the NHS is not. Besides, this is a new government. Rebellions take time. At the beginning there will be plenty of posts and baubles to dangle. And the 'old Tories' really are yesterday's men. They will get no support from the new ones. Attacking the NHS is a kamikaze course anyway. Fight the battles you can win, for God's sake.

Vulture

This is encouraging news. If a score of real Tories can attempt to keep Hokey Cokey Dave and George on to real Tory trax ( especially. re. protecting our long-suffering armed forces and inserting some backbone into the custard re. the EUSSR) then all is not quite lost. It cannot be reiterated too often : welcome though Bruin's demise will be, David Cameron is a) staggeringly inept and arrogant b) not a Conservative and c) worryingly vain and narcissist a la his hero and role model Mr Tony Bliar.

TrevorsDen

The NHS?

Of course its possible to run it more efficiently (but I bet if you tried you would find it a nightmare) - everythjing after the election will have to do more with less..
But
Are you immortal?
By 'you' I mean all the people who think it would be a neat idea to cut back on the NHS or waste even more billions trying to reform it into something else.

How will you feel if you or your wife or children or mother fall ill to be told the 'cut backs' mean no treatment?
How dumb are you? The NHS is being protected because the nation needs it. Because it is already under Labour plans facing cut-backs from its previous high level of spending. Because even with a 'protected' level of spending it faces horrendous difficulties.

When will 'you' get it into your thick heads? The NHS is not some abstract repository of money. It directly serves YOU when YOU are ill. I have news for 'you' - I, that's ME, and my wife and family want the NHS to be protected.

Unlike 'you' I do not regard my health as somehow immune from the need for using the NHS.

Tiberius

Although your headline makes it sound as if you've only just realized the size of the task, Fraser, I'm sure that is not the case.

A 38 majority is 8 better than I expect, for the reasons of voting that you state. But John Major left the economy in good nick and secured the social chapter opt-out having begun with a majority of only 21.

And no matter what policies Cameron may adopt, he will face opposition from his MPs. Tory MPs by definition generally have more difficulty in being unprincipled, cowardly ostriches than their PLP counterparts.

While Cameron's exterior does sometimes appear too calm to force matters, he will produce results. I shall of course drink to your and TGF UKIP's health when the day comes for you both to retrieve the ball from the back of your net.

Fitalass

"I have spoken to a few Tory MPs, in recent weeks"

Regarding the NoW article, I was really interested to read the views of the our MP's who are hoping to be re-elected, as well as the number of PPC's who are hoping to become MP's for the first time.

Should I be worried that the Conservative party is bereft of backbenchers, current and future, who are so lacking in ambition to be part of a governing party in the UK at a time when we face incredible difficulties with the economy and Afghanistan in particular?
So much so, that they intend to cause mayhem after a GE, even if they are given a clear mandate to govern on the manifesto set out by their party?

If I was one of the remaining Tory MP's or PPC's that you didn't talk to before penning that article, I would be feeling pretty angry about such a lazy and ill informed article like as this, and just before a GE campaign is about to start.

You have no idea what will happen if Cameron forms the next government with a majority of 30-40. And to then choose to compare it with the fag end of Major's smaller majority which dwindled to nothing after 18 years of Conservative government is very strange.

You would have been better to look at the Thatcher government of 1979, or Blair's years as PM. Yep, despite those huge majorities, those Labour backbenchers were rather a rebellious lot who took comfort in that very fact.

A poor effort, and it totally undermines many of the current and future Westminster Conservative MP's in the most damaging way.
How you could take such a positive marginals poll for the Conservatives, and then twist it into such a negative article really leaves me wondering.

AAE

Cameron has given himself the problem of post-election Tory disaffection by choosing to campaign within the “nice” and “acceptable” parameters set out by the Left. How “nice” is the NHS when, is it 5000 or 8000, people die needlessly from infections caught whilst in hospital? How “acceptable” is the huge minority of children who after years of state education can neither read nor write? If a private hospital had deaths caused in this way, there would surely be a police investigation. If pupils in a private school couldn’t read or write by the age of 6, never mind 16, their parents would withdraw them with obvious consequences for the school. For the Left, it is the ideology which is the predominant force, not the outcome. If people needlessly die, or have their lives ruined as children because they are the subjects of an evil ideological experiment which we know doesn’t and can never work, that doesn’t bother the Left. Is the horrid neglect of old people in state institutions an echo of the vile theories of eugenics so beloved of the founding Fabians? That such people have outlived their economic usefulness to “The People” and are thus expendible? The inate decency of British people has been misused and abused by the Left (remember always that lying is a deliberate part of their modus operandi) and because Cameron from the start pandered to The Guardian and the BBC et al on the Left with his process of so called “decontamination”, it is hard for us natural Tories to know if he is one of them, or really one of us. I would rather that an outbreak of reality and truth would happen before the election, and I think Conservative MPs, current and prospective, are the ones who should be doing it.

Fitaloon

Fraser, your Defence argument is very poor. Much of the reason we spend so much on defence is because we have not had a proper strategic review for the past ten years and as such are still fighting the Cold War, with Big Ships, Nuclear and Hi-Tech weapons to defeat an enemy that no longer exists. Once we start looking at the huge amounts spent on these Toys for the Boys we can equip our Forces better and cheaper for our current conflicts. This should be the No 1 task for Defence post Election. Savings are likely to large. This is also why DFID spending is important as we fight our battles in many places and not just on the ground. Think of it a second, third etc front from which to attack the enemy. I do suggest ignoring Dannatt and looking to the Likes of Sir David Richards for the way forward.

JONNY

'So much so, that they intend to cause mayhem after a GE, even if they are given a clear mandate to govern on the manifesto set out by their party?'

Luvly stuff Fitalass.
That's my effing Tory Party.

JohnBUK

TrevorsDen. NHS budget. I don't think it is "moronic" to question the NHS budget. Nor is it right to suggest that anyone who does does not care about their family etc. I think we can take it as read that all who post here (whatever political hue) care equally about their family's health. That does not preclude an investigation into a budget and processes that swallows money like it's going out of fashion. We are talking about "value for money" not "who can throw most in it's general direction". A valid issue for voters to consider.

In2minds

Good article Fraser, "I have spoken to a few Tory MPs, in recent weeks, who are incensed....." , I'm sure Ken Clarke can't wait to put the Hush Puppy in too.

Short the UK

As a libertarian capitalist I have little confidence that Cameron & Osborne are going to turn this country around.

I will vote for the Tories as the thought of Old Labour in power is just so truly awful.

I don't think the Tories have conviction, steel and the nous to tackle our structurally flawed economic problems.

I think the election campaign we have seen in January crystallises the faults at the heart of the Cameron project:

~Spin.
~Trite slogans.
~Appearance: casual.
~Policies not fixed: plasticine.

The poster sums it all up, it is the early icon of a political cause that lacks anger, focus and power.

I fear for our economic future, the Pound is our power in the World, if it keeps being devalued inflation will rise further and the BoE will lose control of interest rates. Unless we have ruthless leaderss in power we could go Icelandic. Watching the Tories in the past couple of years my overall impression is that these guys are too soft, spinners and don't truly understand the dire reality of UK plc.

The Huntsman

Perhaps not rebellion on the budget.....but on Old Cast Iron's EU policy, yes.

andrew

i've said it before, and i'll say it again, CAN'T CAMERON JUST BRING OUR BOYS HOME???!!!

Gordon Brown won't do it. Labour won't do it, but Cameron most definately could, within six months of leaving office. Who cares what shady 'backroom deals' he may be breaking with the Americans by doing so, they weren't his deals.

As for maintaining spending on the NHS, if that's what he's agreed, then so be it, but there is still plenty of room for NHS reform. The waste! Oh the waste!

canonalberic

Fraser - you are Damien Macbride and I claim my £5 (or whatever it is on Benbecula).

Ben

I am an NHS consultant. All of the medics could find a 5-10% cut fairly easily withoiut affecting clinical management. One of my colleagues reckoned 20% and he might be right. The problem is that we're not the ones who get to make these decisions. Not yet.

Nicholas Keen

A small majority is the best chance for the Thatcherite small government, anti-European party mainstream to keep Cameron's behaviour in check.

Archie

Well, up to a point, Mr. Nelson. But a comment on "Any Questions?" yesterday - a programme requiring one's left-wing nonsense detectors to be turned up to maximum - by one of the panelists along the lines of "I would love a reason to vote Conservative but every time David Cameron speaks I am less inclined to do so" is a sentiment obviously felt by many hereabouts!

Moraymint

Mrs Moraymint is a hospital doctor.

I can assure all who blog and post here that the NHS could easily handle at least a 10% cut in its budget and the end-result would be a service offering better value for money to the taxpayer: provided that that 10% cut was aimed exclusively at managers, bureaucrats, administrators, lawyers, Health Board employees, management consultants, outreach workers and all of the other tens of thousands of parasites that currently leech value from the vital work being done by the nation's doctors, nurses and paramedics.

The Tories are simply nuts - stark, staring mad - to talk about protecting the NHS budget. No right-minded person out here in the private sector, in a business staring at bankruptcy, would ever look at a budget the size of the NHS's, relative to overall expenditure, and deem it a sacred cow.

Bankruptcy would follow as surely as night follows day. Hint, hint, Dave.

PS Another reason why politicians without any commercial experience whatsoever are generally about as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike.

PPS I continue to despair at the Tories' apparent lack of preparedness for government, despite the years and years and years they've had to prepare for what lies just ahead. Jesus wept.

Verity

Vulture writes: "David Cameron is a) staggeringly inept and arrogant b) not a Conservative and c) worryingly vain and narcissist a la his hero and role model Mr Tony Bliar."

Concise, and correct in every detail.

Verity's Ropero

Trevor's Den asks, "How dumb are you? The NHS is being protected because the nation needs it."

Eschewing personal epithets, I may ask "how provincial are you?" Why not get a team of Froggies or Singaporeans to put in the French or Singapore systems of health care ... two systems that work because they are designed and run with awesome intelligence ... not thick wadges of self-perpetuating, form-filling, uppity bureaucracies.

Devise a real plan and put a team of highly intelligent people in charge.

Part of the plan would be fat-reduction surgery around the middle.

I read today that some 16-year old boy is going to get "sex change" (there's no such thing, but never mind) surgery on the NHS. The bill will be £10,000. So that's his parents' vote bought, no doubt.

THX1138

Even Dannatt was questioning Trident last week, that is where the savings should come from not the NHS & the tiny amount we spend on helping the poorest people on the planet.

The real battle Dave is going to have is over any climate change legislation - far too many the flat earthers on the back benches, this could be the new "Europe" for the Tories.. No wonder Hilton has been sending PPC's on "Green" re-education courses.

John Richardson

'TrevorsDen'

On the previous thread I wrote in criticising your stated position.
My criticism was based upon one or two assumptions. These assumptions regarded the given 'state of play' in respect of political debate on the 'right' of contemporary British politics.
However.
Having read your above 'analysis' of different opinions regarding the funding the NHS; it is clear I was quiet wrong to make the assumptions that I did.
Certainly regarding your personal political insight.
Please accept my apologies.
Won't happen again.

Further, I invited you to 'prove me wrong' using, I hoped , reasoned argument.
Perhaps it would be better if you concentrated upon some other area of you expertise instead.
Thank you.

That offer is still open, of course , to anyone else.

TGF UKIP

Fraser, setting aside that most of your fellow political journos, together it would seem with most pollsters, are predicting a hung parliament, a majority of 38 at this point, with an election still probably over three months away, is very dangerous territory.

Given that the Cameron Tories have thus far proved themselves to be abysmal campaigners and that Brown, Campbell and Mandelson have electioneering form that far outstrips that of The Clique Triumvirate, it would be a reasonable bet to assume that a majority of 38 is an extremely optimistic expectation.

Given also Gordon's new found cockiness and humour at PMQ's and Dave's proven inability to handle figures and statistics and a TV Debate knockout looks more and more unlikely.

So a hung parliament still looks, at the very least, a distinctly possible outcome. So what then Fraser - time so senior a Tory journo addressed this eventuality.

Oh and by the way you lot, don't forget that while he might have come a cropper over Europe, (mainly because of the mischievous activities of those Europhile headbangers, Heseltine and Clarke) John Major was generally a lot closer to the centre of gravity of his party than ultra PC and green, tax and spend, "One Nation liberal, David Cameron.

John

"I have spoken to several Tory MPs recently, and they are incenced..."
Yes they would seek YOU out, wouldn't they Fraser?

TGF UKIP

Oh Tiberius, is't come to this? Whatever happened to those giddy Summer days of 2008 when you were able to so confidently dismiss my Dave scepticism and cynicism and assure me that High Command's Blue Labour master strategy would result in an electoral tidal wave for Dave and his chosen ones.

And to think you are now reduced to "a majority of 38 is 8 better than I expect". How cruel can chill reality be sometimes.

terence patrick hewett

I believe the Bookies rather than the pollsters. They imply that the majority will be between 60-70. And I believe them.

General Zod

Utter rot, djw2009; at that rate, Maggie was far more at fault, having signed up to the Single European Act.

2trueblue

There is a thread of negativity running through the media, and you have just got caught up in it.

Were we not promised the end of boom and bust? Were we not promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty? Were we not promised the end of child poverty in this country? Yes. The list is endless. The media have been less than robust in their interviews with Liebore over time.

And who was in charge and could deliver these things? 13yrs is a long time and right now no one seems to have learnt the lesson. LIEBORE are the ones who have totally let us down.

I can not think of one thing that has been sustainably improved over the past 13yrs. That is an awful long time to continue not delivering any sustainable results.

We have seen MPs allowed to help themselves to an inordinate amount of money, tax free, over the period, and when a report was produced, and measures to address the situation put up, what did this government do? So far, not a lot. The whole thing was watered down, apologies to the house, and keep the hundreds of thousands dear, what the hell was the point?

Liebore had a great majority, lots of money in the kitty, (thanks to the tories) and what is the result?

JONNY

' If a score of real Tories can attempt to keep Hokey Cokey Dave and George on to real Tory trax '

.....the whole bleeding party will go to hell.

stephen

Boy George is Dave's weakest link and his presence after May 6 could well produce a weak factionalised Tory Govt. The Boy is not trusted by the City, thoughtless leaping on the Obama Bash a Banker band wagon is just on of many illustations of his immaturity and lack of judgememt[remember the Russian Oligarcg]and his recent nose in the trough on his expenses. This man is an Electoral liability to Dave and Labour know it. They will play for all it is worth
Has Dave got to the guts to say "Boy George you are the Weakest Link" I doubt it Dave is not a Thatcher and Buller Club mates are more important to him.

stephen maybery

plus ca change, plus ca la meme chose. Nothing will change dramatically after the election, Romulus Augustalus will continue to appease the BBC and the Guardian while spitting in the eye of his core supporters, who he arrogantly supposes have nowhere else to go, on this question he may be lining up for one hell of a shock as I rather think UKIP will make significant inroads into the Tory vote despite the smart money discounting this prospect. If Cameron thinks giving billions of taxpayers pounds in foreign aide to squalid third world dictatorships is a vote winner, then all I can say is that he is more out of touch than even I gave him credit for. As for the health service,which is neither healthy nor much of a service, the sooner it is pruned of the legions of politically correct managers talking claptrap while squandering countless billions the better for all of us. There is one good prospect in sight, Romulus Augustalus, the child emperor who was the last of the imperial line did not last very long and nor will duplicitous Dave.

Tiberius

Not so, TGF.

Other may have got carried away with 80-100 majorities, but if you check posts back to our entering the ring for these 15 rounds, you'll find me arguing that a 30 majority would be good for Cameron because, for want of a better expression, the Tories are playing the ref whoever their leader is. That is one thing David Lindsay is right about.

My underlying point is that it has taken the Cameroon approach to drag the party into the 21st century.

Ex-Tory voter

In my view it's lunacy to ringfence International Aid at this time. As for the NHS it needs a gastric band itself. Any money we may still have after servicing the massive debt that is the Brown/Blair legacy needs to be targeted and spent wisely (something we haven't seen for the last 13 years). Prioritise essentials over luxuries and cut out the dead and unproductive wood. Of course, we'll need to seek approval from our masters in the EU before we do anything that might improve our lot. That (together with the failure to recognise the success of grammar schools and signing up for the AGW trick) is the main reason Dave lost my vote.

Marcher Baron

I've just listened to a piece about American procurement and the utter, idiotic waste and duplication that seemed to be the norm (paying millions of dollars to hire a couple of generators that could have been bought for $78k for instance). I bet once the stone is lifted we'll find myriads of similar happenings here. Cutting that out would go a long way towards finding money to help pay down the debt.

Naomi Muse

All this speculation as to what can be done - until it is clear what the contract terms are for all the stuff the current government has committed to, no-one outside the government can hope to plan in more detail what will be cut and what will have to stay.

There are going to be huge changes of MPs in parliament after this election, it could well be that one third of them are new to the job.

Good to hear that Mrs Moraymint thinks that a cut of 10% is possible as long as targeted correctly. With inside knowledge, that should be expected throughout the NHS regardless of which party runs the government.

TGF UKIP

Tiberius, methinks you are suffering from a bout of convenient amnesia which is all very understandable given your young hero's performance against Britain's worst ever government.

And BTW, I think you are being jolly unfair and beastly to Fraser, tacking his name alongside mine. While he might not be such an overtly vociferous Dave cheerleader as his predecessor as editor and his successor as political editor, he is still very much in your camp as a fully paid-up Camerloon - just perhaps a little more objective than you and your lot are wont to be.

He trusts Dave's instincts, you see, God knows why, given how misguided and wrong they've been they've been these past four years, but trust them he apparently does. Unless of course, he just has to say that because it goes along with his job.

John Francis

John Major's government was one of the worst since 1945. The "golden economic legacy" occurred because John Major's policy collapsed - we have Soros to thank for the fifteen prosperous years that followed.