The demographics of power-sharing

Dr Tchock

Demographics? I don't think so.

Unionism has been badly split - there's now the even-more-hardline-than-the-DUP TUV to throw into the mix. If the Tories really do want to stand in Northern Ireland (albeit in collaboration with the UUP), it makes sense to try to do something to bring this factionalism to an end. Otherwise, by default, Sinn Fein triumphs by divide and rule.

It's got nothing to do with demographics, if the implication was supposed to be the old saw "Catholics ahve more babies than Protestants, and they will all vote Sinn Fein".

T

FergusMac

In my view, the Conservatives are insane to get directly involved as a party in Northern Irish politics. Northern Ireland is stuck in a timewarp from the wars of religion in the seventeenth century, with all the hatred, bigotry, sectarianism and intransigence that involves.

Aligning the party with one of the factions in Northern Ireland is hardly conducive to presenting the Conservatives as a modern and broadly-based government in waiting. How can they present themselves to the Nationalists as a neutral arbiter, when they are formally allied to the other side?

David Blackburn

Dr Tchock,

There are two points - yes unionism is obviously split and that means that generally sectarian demographics come into play.

Phil

The conservatives have either been very naive or very stupid here.

They will have now spent a large amount of the limited political capial they had in nationalist circles.

I have experience of living in Northern Ireland but am English raised. There the Tories are viewed as being pro unionist and untustworthy by both communities. Ironically that has not really been the case for a long time - remember how much John Major loathed the DUP.

Cameron has in his limited dealings on the issue shown a worrying lack of touch. Hung parliament aside he would need as premier to send a strong message of being above partisanship as for that matter must the Irish premier.

As the vast sums of money by way of peace dividend dry up there are problems ahead and any politician involved needs to be a good chess player. This clumsy episode looks worrying.

Any Colour but Brown

"why did the umbrella of unionists, including the Tories’ Northern Ireland spokesman Owen Paterson, convene at the Marquis of Salisbury’s house in secret?"

Because they wanted to avoid Jonah "saving" them !

Irene

I agree with Ben Brogan.

"It seems a stretch to lambast Mr Cameron for doing his job as a unionist politician, which should be to find political ways to ensure Sinn Fein doesn’t end up the winner as the result of the failure of Unionism in Northern Ireland to get its electoral act together."

Frank P

If Gerry Adams and Martin McG hadn't been absolutely certain that their Long March of stealth wouldn't eventually win the day both demographically and politically, as a result of a weak leftist Bruttish Guvurnnmunt and a complaint one in Eire, they would still be bombing the feck out of us. In the meantime, during the impasse, they are taking the piss with their noses in the trough. It's all win-win for them. Here's to you Mrs. Robinson!

AAE

"I suspect that the DUP are the villains of the piece." I know, it's so unreasonable of them not to hand over control of policing to those who ran the richest, most brutal terrorist organisation in Europe. And if Sinn Fein don't get their way, well, it'll be the Unionist's fault for the rise of "dissident" Republican murder won't it.
Unionist leaders from O'Neill via Faulkner to Trimble, by goodwill, decency and wanting to be seen to do the "right thing", have acquiesced over and over again to the appeasement of the IRA. Their voters were always in doubt that the IRA would ever stop before they got everything they wanted, and it was the voters who were right and the leaders who were wrong. Someone needs to draw a line in the sand surely. Consensus in Westminster has caused loss of life in Ulster and other parts of the UK, and those who are so glib in support of that consensus should remember that.

Frank P

Sorry - typo alert (1.05pm) for 'complaint' [government in Eire] read 'compliant one'.

flemingcrag

Any talk of the 10 year old peace accord being a success to date and now in danger of falling apart is delusional propaganda fed to those who do not live in Northern Ireland.

The reality for those who live there are 10 foot high peace walls seperating communities with their bricks and mortar and their sectarian hateful messages, proclaiming divided communities who are afraid to venture into each others territory. For many people in Northern Ireland there are still too many no-go areas.

The politicians in Stormont have done more to keep this division alive than your average person in the street. What can you say about a politician who spouts publicly about how they are working hard towards peace, toleration and accord and then in the shadows and corridors of supposed power in Stormont refuses to get into a lift if a member of an opposition party is already in it.

Kilsally

Robinson has not procrastinated. Firstly the St Andrews Agreement was not signed up to by the DUP - it was an agreement between the British & Irish Governments which the DUP decidied to go along with as the Labour Government had all but blackmailed them with various legislation regarding Northern Ireland going through Westminster which the DUP were against (abortion, grammar schools, water charges....) and which seemed better than Peter Hains threat of `joint rule`. Despite that , devolution of policing and justice powers is in the DUP manifesto. The DUP wants this, but it has to be right on several accounts. They have ex-DUP MEP Jim Allister QC snapping at their heels as `sell outs` seeing their 32% European election vote drop to 18% (Jim Allister took 14% effectively the DUP`s lost votes). So unless the DUP gets a good deal it is a vote loser for them. Add to that Westminster elections and Assembly elections where they could lose alot of seats if this looks bad for them (add the Mrs Robinson scandal and expenses scandal into that mix).

The DUP WILL do a deal if the circumstances and the manner of devolution is correct (Do you really want a former IRA terrorist in charge of the police? Don`t think so!).

Chingford Man

“Knowing that the DUP is on the cusp of succumbing to the rhythm method, Robinson has made himself the obstacle to power-sharing. He has procrastinated over devolved policing for nearly three years – finance, regulation, marching rights...”

Honestly Mr Blackburn, you don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. There was no commitment by the DUP to see policing and justice devolved by a particular date. If you think there was, then cite the evidence for it.

Peter Robinson speaking in December:

“The St Andrews Agreement was clear. There was no commitment to any date for policing and justice in the St Andrews Agreement.

“Immediately the agreement was published, Dr Paisley, on behalf of the party, with his colleagues around him, indicated very clearly that the Democratic Unionist Party had not signed up for any particular date for policing and justice. But because it was a party priority to get policing and justice we would continue to work towards it.

“We have, in the legislation at Westminster, got clear conditions which allow us to determine when and why we would move forward with policing and justice.

“So they (Sinn Fein) had no right to be indicating to anybody that policing and justice would come in a particular period of time. We weren’t under any commitment to do so whatsoever.”

This is all a crisis manufactured by Sinn Fein to cover up the fact that they oversold things to their own supporters. Why should the DUP be obliged to help them?

Memo to the Fourth Estate of SW1: if you know nothing then blog nothing. Have another drink in the Two Chairmen and stick to the Village’s tittle-tattle instead.

The Masked Marvel

Frank P has it about right. Letting a group into the government whose very existence is based on eliminating that government was always going to be the beginning of the end of Northern Ireland and the Union. "Power-sharing" was always a misnomer. In reality, this has been a long, slow process of "power-ceding".

ST MEG

SURELY YOU CAN ALL SEE THAT THE UNIONIST VOTE WILL BECOME VERY IMPORTANT TO THE TORIES IF A HUNG PARLIAMENT OCCURS IN MARCH