Cameron has shifted the spending debate to Labour's home ground – but the Tories still have an aggregate lead
Peter Hoskin 2:10pm
So, is David Cameron's shift in emphasis on spending cuts a u-turn, a clarification, or something else? Well, when it comes to existing Tory policy, it doesn't actually change much. We were always rather taking it on trust that Cameron & Co. would cut spending by much more than Labour this year. The cuts they've announced so far aren't really that much deeper – and most folk in Tory circles were waiting for George Osborne's potential Emergency Budget to see whether that would change. So, when Cameron says that his party wouldn't introduce "swingeing cuts" this year, the position is still remarkably similar: we still need more details to judge the true extent – not the publicised extent – of any Tory cuts.
Which means that, for now, the change is more presentational than anything else. And there's little doubting that that presentational shift has made things a bit more comfortable for Labour. From being up against Brown's crude "investment vs cuts" dividing line, Cameron is now rowing back to something which, at the very least, sounds quite Darling-esque. For Labour, it may well seem like the battle has moved onto their home ground – and they've already set about exploiting that development with some relish.
The question now is whether Labour will really capitalise from all this. Myself, I can't see it. Sure, the debate may have become more comforable for them, but the public finances are still in a mess and plenty of voters will know just who to blame. Besides, Labour's message is hardly clear and consistent itself. In the end, the real worry remains just what the folk buying our debt are making of all this...



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Ken
February 1st, 2010 3:00pm Report this commentPity Clegg took the lead on education, promising:- 'The extra cash would be found by making savings elsewhere in the education budget - such as scrapping education quangos, reducing spending on testing and the national curriculum - whose compulsory element would be reduced to a core curriculum in the basics'
luke
February 1st, 2010 3:01pm Report this commentSuspect cameron has been desperate to go into retreat on this ever since the polls narrowed to below a 10pt lead.
He and Osborne have got caught up in the insider world where "tougness" on cuts wins you credit, but the public were starting to see nasty, ruthless tories again putting the recovery at risk.
Cameron wants a majority more than a mandate, and who can blame him.
Pot Head
February 1st, 2010 3:12pm Report this commentTories complain about deficit but will identify program cuts or tax hikes that they favour before GE?
charles hercock
February 1st, 2010 3:13pm Report this commentIt is all a matter of trust and while we all trust Dave we detest loathe and profoundly distrust Jonah
PAUL GILBOY
February 1st, 2010 3:14pm Report this commentThe Tories cannot give specific figures on spending cuts because labour has not provided them with treasury information. Take for example the defence contracts for ships, planes, etc. The Tories cannot say where they will make saving because they have not seen the contracts. Labours call for specifics is asking the Tories to indulge in fantasy government, dangerous in opposition, lethal when in power as Labour and the country have found to their cost.
The conservatives can state an ideological commitment to reducing the size of the state but in these perilous times party politics must take second place to good government.
Tim Hedges
February 1st, 2010 3:20pm Report this commentCameron seems to have completely lost the plot - first Lisbon, now tax cuts, he seems just as indecisive as Brown. The dangers are that Brown gives him another hammering on PMQs and the electorate begins to feel he's nothing special and 'better the devil you know'...
crowbait
February 1st, 2010 3:47pm Report this commentStart with the premise that Dave does not want the traditional Tory vote.He is chasing disaffected Lib Dem and New Labourites. This would explain why the poll leads are shrinking and a hung parliament is a strong possibility. We have the worst government in living memory and this is the Conservative policy? Gawd help us all because no one in Westminster will.
Lee Jakeman
February 1st, 2010 3:56pm Report this comment"So, is David Cameron's shift in emphasis on spending cuts a u-turn, a clarification, or something else?"
It's something else. It's called duplicity.
Verityred
February 1st, 2010 3:58pm Report this commentThe nastier and more personnal the Labour attacks get, the more they betray their fear at losing power (or in Brown's case 'his precious').
The Tories are starting to play them at their own game, and boy Mandelson and co don't like it one bit.
Andy H
February 1st, 2010 4:01pm Report this commentI think this is a tactical position. As long as the policy was to make cuts (unpopular with the uneducated electorate but popular with the markets), Dave put the Tory's in a weak electoral position, and saved Labour the pain of the markets deciding that UK PLC was bust - as there was light at the end of the tunnel.
So the only choice is a tactical switch - don't give comfort to the markets that things will change for the better after May 6th and let the markets get nervous with the current situation (and hence put pressure on Labour) and also buy some cheap, uneducated votes as well.
It may cost them a few minor headlines in the short term, but will make Labour confront the situation they have put us in, should our credit rating be downgraded.
A clever move I would say - Gordon Bruin has been making economic decisions for political ends for years now so it is time the Tory's returned the favour.
strapworld
February 1st, 2010 4:30pm Report this commentAre the Conservative's a one person party? Is the heir to Blair so obsessed by that con man that he believes that only he can win the election?
I have a word of advice. Let the people see his team. IF, as it appears, he does not trust Boy George then put Ken Clarke in the job he wipes the floor with Darling and Mandleson. Give Hague more opportunities to impress the people. As it is people are a little tired of this one man team teamcameron!
Short the UKSSR
February 1st, 2010 4:30pm Report this commentIt is better to have a monetary/fiscal crisis before the election, then the voters will feel/see that Old Labour's economic policies have ruined the economy.
The pampered public have little knowledge of Sterling, Gilts, Deficit, Balance Sheet. The main thing they focus on is the interest rate because they are caught in an inflationary trap with their mortgage. If rates start to rise in the coming months then they will start to take more notice. The Tories should speak more clearly about interest rates, it is the only factor that frightens the Debt Junkies.
Alex Thompson
February 1st, 2010 5:27pm Report this commentShort the UKSSR and Andy H have the right idea. This is a tactical switch by Cameron because the policy of being honest about the need for dramatic cuts is not being rewarded by a (largely) uneducated electorate.
There is a paradox in the current situation - the UK is only being lent money at such low rates on the proviso that the Tories are expected to win and will come in and slash the public purse to the bones. Labour have taken advantage of this by taking credit for the economic recovery (laughable) which is wholly dependent on those low interest rates and not on their phony fiscal stimulus (which is also dependent on low interest rates).
Unfortunately the Tories have been unable to get across the nuanced argument that these cuts are essential, that the puny fiscal stimulus is dwarfed by a monetary stimulus and that both of these are fundamentally dependent on the international investors having confidence that the next government will be Conservative. Naturally the opinion polls are narrowing - years of propaganda by the BBC (and that is exactly what they do) has seen to that.
It's now right that the Conservatives stop playing fair. Give the British public the wake up call that they so desperately need. Follow Labour's lead, don't promise anything and see what the markets do. But batten down the hatches.
TrevorsDen
February 1st, 2010 5:33pm Report this commentThere is no shift. I, myself, me, personally, with my own two eyes and ears - that's me, not hearsay or newspaper reporting - actually saw and heard Osborne last week being interviewed about the economy and he clearly said (because I, myself, me, heard him), audibly said, the tories would noty make massive cuts, all the cuts, from day pone. Butn that they would make a start now and would initiate a believable plan.
So nothing about this is new. The inteviewer was clearly jumping to a conclusion and Osborne went out of his way to clarify nthe position.
I believe that in a Newsnight debate Hammond said pretty much the same thing.
So none of this is new. And the reaction of Labour is not new and the reaction of the media to mandelson is not new.
So Strapworld et all can untwist their knickers and stop running around like headless chickens. The Tory policy is as it always has been.
But the way the media have covered this makes it clear that their only interest is to paint Tories as evil cutters and its absolutely clear the BBC want to continue to suck on the teat of Labour largesse.
The real issue is this ... over 13 years Labour have totally mismanaged the nations finances and its economy. We are stuffed thanks to them, and to quote Nick Clegg we face 'savage cuts' no matter who wins the election.
denis cooper
February 1st, 2010 6:40pm Report this comment@ Alex Thompson -
The Treasury can only borrow from private investors at comparatively low rates because the private investors know that they can make a profit by buying gilts from the Treasury and selling gilts to the Bank of England - the money-go-round which the Treasury and the Ban have been operating since March 12th last year.
Not "sell on" exactly the same new gilts that they'd bought from the Treasury the day before, but sell previously issued gilts.
The Bank's portfolio of gilts presently stands at £198 billion:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/results.htm
Which is something like 12% of GDP, and about half the value of all the gilts previously in issue before the Bank started creating new money to buy them up and rig the gilts market, and which will probably have to increase further so that the government can continue to borrow and fund its massive budget deficit over the next year or two.
stephen
February 1st, 2010 6:53pm Report this commentIs'nt the trouble that the "Weakest Link" Boy George has boxed our Dave into a corner by doing the Mr Nasty cuts speech at the Party Conference. Dave is now having to back peddle and stands the risk of becoming a "Flip Flopper" like John Kerry! Have our Dave got the steel to drop his weakest link and start playing hard and dirty with Brown, Balls & Co? Ken C and Wiliam H are there to help after all!
strapworld
February 1st, 2010 7:49pm Report this commentAm I the only one to think that trevorsden is eric pickles? Nobody in the real world can truly believe what eric (td) allegedly believes!
John David Barnett
February 2nd, 2010 12:23am Report this commentI believe him.
AAE
February 2nd, 2010 1:18am Report this commentThe level of public spending has nothing at all to do with providing "services" for the "vulnerable" - it is the path to State Dictatorship, and Cameron has not once mentioned the wholescale erosion of our freedoms either because he's too stupid to notice, or he believes in the general drift towards totalitarianism. Remember, Liberty, once lost, can never be recovered.
Major Plonquer
February 2nd, 2010 3:00am Report this commentOf course this is all presentational. However, politicians of all parties should learn the REAL way to do marketing. I mean, who's idea was it to but Dave's pictures on billboards? Ever see a Bill Gates billboard? No. And he has 96% market share.
No. Tories should call their new spending policy, Spending XP or Vista Spending. How about Cuts Lite? Or Budget 2011 Personal Edition?
Let the pros show you how its done....
Ghengis
February 2nd, 2010 11:46am Report this commentGovernment Income (Tax) Minus Spending (All) should in a well managed enterprise provide a profit which in the existence of Government Debt (deficit + interest) will diminish it.Present debt £768,550,000,000 and rising -- Simple enough for you?
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