Yanukovych wins Ukrainian election – but that may not be all bad
Daniel Korski 11:29am
With just over 2% of votes still to be counted, Ukraine’s pantomime villain, Viktor Yanukovych, is coasting for victory in the country’s presidential election. Yulia Tymoshenko, the current prime minister and one of the leaders of the pro-Western ‘Orange Revolution' in 2004 has yet to accept her loss, but with the EU praising the “impressive display of democratic elections” it will be hard for her to do anything but concede. So is this game, set and match for Vladimir Putin, who has done everything in his power to snuff out the ‘Orange Revolution'?
“Revolutions devour their own children”, the saying goes, and this has certainly been true of the 2004 events that swept Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko to power. But while democracy is now well-entrenched in Ukraine, Yushchenko proved an ineffective leader - out of touch and constantly battling with Tymoshenko. Together they proved incapable of governing, balancing Ukraine’s split West/East identity or reforming the country’s gangsterland economy.
Yanukovych may prove no better in managing a country that resembles Boris Yelstin’s Russia. Many of his backers are said to be implicated in corruption, while he has given no indication how he intends to rebuild a country, which has little FDI, lacks the natural resources that prop up Russia, and only subsists by eating away Soviet-era industrial assets.
But in some ways his election may even be good for the West, at least in the short-term. First, it means Ukraine will stop knocking so hard on NATO’s door – thus sparing the alliance the trouble of an internal fight over whether to open the door to Ukraine. When Ukraine starts knocking again, it will be because it genuinely is ready to join Western clubs (either because President Yanukovych has decided to pursue membership and has undertaken the necessary reform; or because he has lost an election and Ukrainians have rejected a non-NATO future).
Second, it may make Putin’s Russia a little more relaxed about Russia’s role in its “Near Abroad”. President Yanukovych will also be keen not to be seen as a Russian ogre in the West and may open the door for a lot more serious, if subterranean, cooperation with NATO and the EU – as long as the question of membership is kept at bay.
Sure, I would have liked to see the Orange Revolution' succeed and Ukraine cast off Russia’s yoke. But those hopes were not dashed last night; they were dashed years ago. What remains today is to make the best of Yanukovych’s election – and that may not, in the end, be so hard as people assume.
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strapworld
February 9th, 2010 11:44am Report this commentNever trust Putin. He is an old school communist. This man will cause major trouble with the EU soon, as he knows the EU is weak. It will, again, fall upon the United Kingdom and the USA to save Europe.
Naomi Muse
February 9th, 2010 11:55am Report this commentDifficult to take over in Ukraine. It will be years before the culture of the relationship with Russia changes whoever is in official charge of Ukraine.
As to Putin, strapworld is absolutely spot on.
Ronnie
February 9th, 2010 11:56am Report this commentSorry strapworld, we've moved on. The EU is a major customer for Putin's oil and gas only economy. Things are not as simple as you seem to think.
Balanced Reader
February 9th, 2010 12:19pm Report this commentIs this journalism, or just a fascist rant? What happened to independence and objectivity in reporting? As a journalist, your opinion doesn't matter, and nobody should have to hear it.
Scott
February 9th, 2010 12:22pm Report this commentI quite liked Timoshenko, but I hope that this will signal a move to make Russian an official language on the territory of Ukraine.
strapworld
February 9th, 2010 12:57pm Report this commentRonnie, as a simple person I view issues quite simply. When Putin proves me right he will, simply, have a captured market!
Cuffleyburgers
February 9th, 2010 2:24pm Report this comment"and constantly battling with Tymoshenko" -
I wouldn't mind battling with Tymoshenko provided we were in a large rubber bath of warm baby-oil, a bottle of champagne and two dozen oysters to the good
Which is more than you can say for Putin.
David Lindsay
February 9th, 2010 2:45pm Report this commentSocially conservative patriot elected, neocons have a fit.
And there was no "Orange Revolution". It was a staged media event, as these colour-coded things always are.
M
February 9th, 2010 2:57pm Report this commentYou may think it’s not bad now, but wait until the end of 2010 and Kiev gets overwhelmed by Russian influence. The same could very much be in store for Georgia as there is more or less the same kind of split. Caucuses are not top priority for Russia they are more irritating but nonetheless playground they will use. There may be some shifts in regard to Belarus, cause for Russia they must dominate Ukraine and Belarus for the basic of their national security. It will be an interesting process to observe. In the recent past there was a tendency of swings between the moods but 2010 may be the year when the obsession gets developed on both sides…
cherkasy5
February 9th, 2010 5:07pm Report this commentYanukovich's win was a rejection of Tymoshenko's phony rhetoric (she has never really been committed to a pro-Western agenda) and a rejection of her attempted division of Ukrainian society.
Many commentators, including President Yuschenko, have said that Putin was actually backing Tymoshenko in order to promote Ukrainian instability...
Yanukovich is nonetheless in a very difficult situation and he will have a hard time delivering on his economic promises.
Noa Zrk
February 9th, 2010 11:32pm Report this commentCuffleyburgers
Tymoshenko is certainly no Blair Babe, or Labour Hag as they've now grown up to be; scrbbling for their bath plugs and a nw porn video for hubby.
Not baby oil for me, but a nice shepherds pie and a few bottles of Jennings Cumberland Ale would serve as an ice breaker.
As to Putin its worth remembering there's different strokes for different folks and since those bare chested photo shots he's very much a gay icon.
An increase in business with the East? More rough trade I'd say.
I wouldn't mind battling with Tymoshenko provided we were in a large rubber bath of warm baby-oil, a bottle of champagne and two dozen oysters to the good
Which is more than you can say for Putin.
I share your taste,
dandelion
February 10th, 2010 11:31am Report this commentWhy should Ukraine have imposed on it a second official Russian language? For those historically ill-equipped, Russian was foisted by Stalin, on Eastern Ukraine in the 1930s, when Ukrainian was banned, indigenous peoples 'removed' and Russian settlers brought in (the same was done to the Tartars in Crimea). To Mr Lindsay, who is adamant that there was no Orange revolution, I say you are v wrong; I was there. The pro-West stance has been bubbling under the surface for decades,but the Ukrainians did not want a bloodbath on their hands, and so waited until a time when they felt the political climate was congenial to speak, and has not vaporised with Mr Yanukovich taking upoffice. Yanukovich is not 'the sharpest knife in the block'and thankfully his party does not command the workings of Verkhovna Rada, nor does he have a visible platform of reforms to build up the economy on, andI still fail to understand how a country (who wishes to be taken seriously) can elect a multiply-convicted fellon with a poor command of Ukrainian and sophisticated Russian. He is not an orator of any stature nor a charismatic politician, and given a different electoral system in Ukraine, I suspect the vote would have been decidedly different. Only in Ukraine can a party like Mr Yanukovich's force key reforms to the electoral system (to its advantage)2 days before the second round elections, by 'democratically' staging a brawl (until it got its way) in Parliament.
The 1997 parliamentary elections were also hailed as democratic by the EU, yet light was made of many incidents such as the one I witnesses, where 4 coaches stuffed with men in black piled into a counting station once voting had ceased. Sometimes we see what is politically convenient in these unstable times,to see, and the West not wishing to rile the angry Bear,will do what is does best, and tha is 'sit on the fence'.
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