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Thursday, 11th February 2010

The rebirth of history

Fraser Nelson 4:10pm

We have Francis Fukuyama writing a cover piece for us this week, revisiting his 'End of History' thesis. When he first published it, in 1989, he anticipated what was to become a consensus shared by many, including myself: that autocracy was on the way out. Communism had failed, and was being supplanted by the free society (aka the free market). Capitalism was creating wealth and liberty, and from Minsk to Gdansk people wanted it. Eastern Europe was managing a transition brilliantly. Fukuyama¹s thesis seemed to sum up an incredible spirit of optimism.

Perhaps this optimism turned to hubris. After 9/11 Tony Blair and George Bush wanted to accelerate history, and bring democracy to countries which just needed to get rid of their dictatorships. I agreed at the time, and denounced as patronising the idea that Arabs were incapable of democracy. Japan, the country of Fukuyama¹s father, has culture very different from the West but had managed transition after American occupation. South Korea did too. Why not the Arab world, with its culture and tradition of market bazaars? Turkey and Malaysia proved there was no contradiction between Islam and democracy

But there is, alas, no question that autocracy is back. China has managed to combine capitalist-inspired wealth with communist authoritarianism - fusing together what had seemed to be irreconcilables. Fukuyama says in his piece that Russia¹s young remember the 1990s as a decade of humiliation, not liberation. He also says that so much depends on the right people. While Poland and Estonia managed a successful transition, Ukraine did not ­ it lacked the politicians. Great revolutionaries do not always make great leaders.

Most strikingly, Fukuyama says he did not realise the extent to which George W Bush¹s wars would blacken the name of democracy, making it a word which had connotations to Guantanamo bay. The 'rainbow revolutions' of 2006 have been slowly reversed ­ and we have a piece explaining this by John Laughland, who served as an election monitor in many of those nations.

Those who regarded Fukuyama¹s End of History as an important book will find his evolving ideas fascinating. He still thinks the right side is winning: liberal democracy is still seen as the best form of government. But the rise of capitalist autocracies - from Venezuela to Russia - show that history has a few more surprises to spring.

UPDATE: The “end of history” did not, of course, mean that things would stop happening (which, Publius and Jeremy, I’m sure you know). Fukuyama intended this as an attention-grabbing headline for a book which suggested that the world no longer had two competing forms of government and that freedom – as expressed through liberal democracy – had no rival. Fukuyama says in his piece that he still believes this to be the case, although the transition to democracy is by no means one-way. As logdon and Sir Graphus say, a rival thesis is Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” (both started off as articles in Foreign Affairs)  The wider point is that made by YouCannotBeSerious! - that 1989 showed the end of Communism but capitalist autocracies have meanwhile done quite well.

Filed under: Al-Qaeda (45 more articles) , Authoritarianism (7 more articles) , China (102 more articles) , Communism (12 more articles) , Democracy (88 more articles) , George W. Bush (31 more articles) , International politics (717 more articles) , Islamism (118 more articles) , Russia (94 more articles) , Tony Blair (228 more articles)

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Publius

February 11th, 2010 4:44pm Report this comment

There will be no "end of history" until there is an end to human nature. I am disappointed in you, Mr Nelson, for having been taken in by this historicist guff. No wonder so many of the Speccie journos are so confused.

Grassmarket

February 11th, 2010 4:51pm Report this comment

Guantanamo Bay did not blacken the name of democrary. It was cynically used by the internation left, who have always hated democracy and eagerly support, as they have always done, far worse violations of human rights, as a fig-leaf to legitimise their own hatred of democracy by blackening the reputation of the history's most successful country.

Jeremy

February 11th, 2010 4:53pm Report this comment

Thesis -> Anithesis -> Synthesis. At this point the "synthesis" becomes a new thesis, which breeds its own antithesis, and so on...

There is no "End to History"....until, that is, there are no longer any human beings around to experience it, to know it or to write about it. But even then, of course, "events" will continue to occur...

Why didn't Fukuyama understand this? It's very basic...

Kirsty Richards

February 11th, 2010 4:53pm Report this comment

When you see the so called 'liberal democracy' we have in the UK not to mention the EU, where the majority are ignored and the elites, whoever is in power carry on regardless, resulting in social and economic decline. The real question is why on earth would other countries want to emulate us? The US however is a totally different thing altogether. But they have a constitution, a diverse media that doesn't shut down debate and a very politically engaged public and they are listened to.

strapworld

February 11th, 2010 5:00pm Report this comment

Surely, Mr Nelson, the end of democracy is when crimes against a nation are not reported upon by a supposedly 'free press'?

When a socialist government, completely against its manifesto promise allows a flood of immigrants into the country?

Where the words England and English are banished, without a peep from the free press?

Where talented, opinionated journalists and editors, such as yourself, ignore the evidence provided by Neather and Migrationwatch!

The death of democracy is when those in a position to raise issues of importance dont!

What say you?

Philip Walker

February 11th, 2010 5:29pm Report this comment

Venezuela, capitalist autocracy? What kind of capitalism is that?

ajs

February 11th, 2010 5:36pm Report this comment

End of History was always a catchy headline, apart from being nonsense in epistemological and lots of other -ological terms. It certainly made a point, and illuminated a searching thesis.
But thank Heavens for the rest of us, History is an on-going concern-even if we may not like some/much/all of it.

YouCannotBeSerious!

February 11th, 2010 5:37pm Report this comment

The end of history was just the end of communism. That's all.

Sir Graphus

February 11th, 2010 6:05pm Report this comment

“The end of history” is a terribly arrogant term. It presupposes that we, now, are the most important people ever, and that all the people that have ever existed before had the sole purpose of forming the world that we, now, live in. It’s as if they were the root, the stem, leaves of history, and we are its glorious flower.

That said, history did appear to pause in the 1990s, even if it ending seemed an exaggeration. The Cold War was over, the oil price shocks were over, we hadn’t invented the internet or Al Qa’ida. Probably the Edwardian period was a bit like this. History, seems to be up and running again at a fair old tilt now, though.

Give or take the odd current event, the article seems to have been written in about 2000. Maybe the book is more comprehensive. Fukyouama seems to arrive at an optimistic conclusion by ignoring the several very important areas.

Many former dictatorships now give lip service to a veneer of democracy, but many proper democracies are gradually peeling away their accountability, instituting potentially oppressive legislation and forming a fairly permanent ruling class, and an increasing quangocracy.

You can’t comment on Poland, the Czech Republic et al, and not comment on the EU, where the Lisbon treaty has institutionalised rule by unelected figures, with the elected parliament little more than an impotent observer, window dressing in the style of democracy. The ex-communists of the Eastern bloc have found themselves right at home in the new EU and there is a brilliant book waiting to be written discussing the influence of “former” communists in the construction of the new EU political architecture. One of them recently voiced his worries about the EU needing to get control of the blogosphere. His comments passed without outrage. Free speech, anyone?

Then there is the growth of Islamism as an unapologetically undemocratic and expansionist form of govt. Islamism, of course, has been the trigger for many of the anti-democratic laws which our own democracy has passed since 2000 (and incidentally, RIPA, the 1st assault on democracy, was passed before 9/11).

logdon

February 11th, 2010 6:14pm Report this comment

And no mention of the elephant in the global room which is named Islam.

Without factoring that roaring tusker into the equation all else is meaningless.

Islam the religion which controls every aspect of personal, business and political life is no mere faith. It is Marxism with the added plus of God for good measure and thus the double whammy.

It is all pervasive. It seeks to not only implant it’s adherents into the Western sphere but to then tell that beleaguered sphere in no uncertain terms how they must be dealt with.

Look at the recent Dizai case and how he evaded his just deserts for years merely by screaming racism.

Norway now has a problem with striking taxi drivers because Aftenposten Dagbladet had the effrontery to publish a Mohammed cartoon. They now seemingly control what we can and cannot publish.

We all know by now of Neather and the electorate shifting methods of Labour and at last it’s getting the airing this massively devious attempt at subverting democracy deserves.

That’s the thin end of an ethnic cleansing, or at the very least moderating wedge. Its going on all over Europe and depressingly, the US too, viz. for instance the Nidal case where the word jihad has been airbrushed out of all discourse.

So to talk about political trends without any mention of Allah is completely fruitless. If Fukiyama thinks Putin is the control freak Stalinist we should all be hiding under our beds for, he misses the grand authoritarian push happening right now and right in the heart of our so called democracies.

Geert Wilders is on trial in the Netherlands for telling the truth about this invidious creed. As far as I am aware no one in Europe suffered for telling it as it was about Soviet Communism.

That's the big difference. They have captured the politically correct hinterland, the institutions and the establishment.

Seemingly only the people can now stop the juggernaut. We actually need a revolution of our own, only this one is the red, white and blue version.

The signs are there. Fukiyama was wrong before and he’s sadly wrong now. He should either pay more attention or get a grip on reality and he’ll see them.

Until then all discourse is mere diversion.

Lance Grundy

February 11th, 2010 6:55pm Report this comment

@Sir Graphus
"...there is a brilliant book waiting to be written discussing the influence of “former” communists in the construction of the new EU political architecture."

I agree. In the meantime though have a read of Vladimir Bukovsky's bizarrely titled, but nevertheless fascinating, booklet EUSSR: The Soviet Roots of European Integration "Our slogan is a worldwide Soviet Union" - Anthem of the Comintern 1938.

Naomi Muse

February 11th, 2010 7:21pm Report this comment

The end of history - The rebirth of history - is that possible?

History is always a perception of what has happened before which is judged and amended with hindsight and legacy in mind.

Had our parliament not been bastardised by the demolition of cabinet government and the pursuit of self for those in the legislature, rather than for doing what is best for the country and the world, the whole ethos of democracy would not now be a bitter pill for us to choke on.

Who did all of that? The current government, in addition to gerrymandering with immigration so that they could be in government in perpetuum.

The theories of this book are interesting. Some may bleed through if we have sufficient a change at the GE, but a plague on both legislative houses along with proper reform will be the only way that people outside the Westminster village will begin to have hope that they might build trust in politicians and politics again.

All of that is a long way away from the thoughts in the book.

ajs

February 11th, 2010 8:25pm Report this comment

Thankfully the dreaded Igonikon Jack seem not to have found this blog. Long may it so continue.

terence patrick hewett

February 11th, 2010 8:26pm Report this comment

As several of the above posters have noted there are areas of discussion where the liberal mainstream press display all the sensibilities of a Victorian maiden aunt; Cif and the NS are the worst offenders but the DT and the Times closely follow.

Try bringing up the subject of the effects of population displacement and the resultant destabilisation upon country, society and liberty. Try the classical Christian doctrine that the promotion of pederasty and sapphism are anarchic, sterile, hedonistic, and socially damaging pastimes which destabilise the family and society. Try postulating that the introduction of euthanasia and abortion, turn us into a nation of old people, further the task of population reduction, damage the fabric of family and society and are intrinsically evil. Try suggesting that the debauchment of the education system is a deliberate policy to reduce a sense of identity and to produce an ignorant and supine untermensch. Try pointing out that the left, using entryism, and with previous points in mind, have corrupted the integrity of the schools, the judiciary, the civil service, local government, councils, the social services, the BBC and the police, and have also made a start on the armed forces.

Try the hypothesis that the left having rejected the set of absolute moral values willed to it by Christianity and Judaism and no longer having a coherent set of moral ethics, have filled the vacuum with a mess of single conflicting issues, which in the words of Phillip Blond, have "repudiated and vilified the very structure and basis of society itself."

Try all that and you will be in for a very dusty time; you will be, God forefend, be moderated by Cif and cast into the outer darkness. Great as the temptation is to snigger at all this pompous maiden auntery, they are the most serious issues of our age and need to be debated. Many correspondents have declared correctly in my view that by ignoring it all gives the field up to the likes of the BNP. In the end reality always breaks in, and the longer we leave it the more traumatic it will be when it does.

Tiberius

February 11th, 2010 9:26pm Report this comment

ajs: you may just have found the nuclear option with which to threaten posters who disagree with one's own view.

Be gone, Verity, or we'll post a link to here on the DT Comment section!

Hysteria

February 11th, 2010 10:47pm Report this comment

@YouCannotbeSerious-"The end of history was just the end of communism. That's all."

this was supposed to be ironic - right?

Derek

February 11th, 2010 10:54pm Report this comment

I would rather see a thesis on the End of the Independent Editor. One of the last in England now seems to be locked up in a castle dungeon in the Channel Islands.

N J Mayes

February 12th, 2010 12:13am Report this comment

A book which beautifully explains why western optimism after the fall of communism turned into the hubris of "the end of history", Iraq, etc is 'Are We Rome?' by Cullen Murphy: doubtless its insights will outlast Fukuyama's facile analysis.

London Calling

February 12th, 2010 1:11am Report this comment

How ironic that the Mother of Democrasy (Greece) is on her knees, whilst her children suckled on the capitalism of wealth that was to become her downfall.

In truth the birth of Democrasy in Greece only succeeded against the backdrop of slavery, therefore true Democrasy in History has never been fully achieved and neither has it experienced a Golden Age.

Human Nature has its flaws, of which we are challenged to overcome to obtain the reward of wisdom, however power and greed
does not crave wisdom other that to use it as a tool to achieve more power and greed.

Money is the Beast and Man is it's servant...Hence the chaos we now find ourselves in at present...

Rebirth of History? I think not...

The Birth of True Democrasy? History has'nt got that far yet...:)

TomTom

February 12th, 2010 5:20am Report this comment

Only burned-out societies in The West believe in 'The End of History' as they sit like Annuitants resting on their laurels. For others it is only just beginning as they saw away at the foundations of Western hegemony and wage economic warfare whilst exporting surplus population to the decaying West.

Japan is another dying society which will succumb to Chinese power having lost its dynamism in 1980s profligacy and complacency

Vulture

February 12th, 2010 8:28am Report this comment

F-f-Fukuyama was totally wrong in 1990 - so why on earth should he be right now?

His piece is as deluded as that last ludicrous thesis. And the fact that Fraser commisssions a lead piece from this fool tells us that he too is living in the la-la land of liberal illusion.

Most importantly they both seem to have a problem with Islam. Fookie in barely mentioning it at all, Fraser in assuring us that Turkey and Malaysia 'prove' that Islam and democracy are compatible. A very big Hmmmm... to that, I'm afraid.

The fact is that Islam and the post-Marxism of the EU present twin deadly threats to the survival of freedom, democracy, liberal capitalism and all - to quote a hackneyed phrase - that we hold dear.

Fookie should get out a bit more from the sheltered Uni campuses where he dreams up his absurd illusions . Fraser should just get out more - or at least write his long promised piece on why Neathergate is a big fuss abt nothing.

Message to them both from that great hero Oliver Cromwell ( Fraser will know that Ollie was talking to the Scots): 'I beseech thee, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that ye may be mistaken'.

Ronnie

February 12th, 2010 9:01am Report this comment

Fukuyama's two-dimensional view of the world and his resultant theses are infantile. God know's why you brought this up Fraser.

Ronnie

February 12th, 2010 9:34am Report this comment

Vulture.

Scots are never mistaken. Cromwell, just like Fukuyama was wrong. :-)

Vulture

February 12th, 2010 9:56am Report this comment

@Ronnie: Could the fact that he whipped your sorry tartan asses at Preston, Dunbar and Worcester have anything to do with your view....?

Ronnie

February 12th, 2010 10:07am Report this comment

Vulture.

These minor setbacks didn't make us wrong. We just had whipped asses. :-)

As long as there is one of us left etc. etc.

Publius

February 12th, 2010 1:29pm Report this comment

Mr Nelson writes:
"The “end of history” did not, of course, mean that things would stop happening..."

Obviously not. The End of History is tied up with the Hegelian notion that there is Progress (with a capital "P"), that there is a historical process or historical dialectic -- a kind of secularized Providence -- that means that what comes later is necessarily better than what came before, that modern is by its very nature better than not-modern, that the political difficulties resolve not by intelligent, wise government, but by some vaguely defined process independent of the actors.

This is coupled with the usually left-wing delusion that the past has nothing to teach us, that "we" know better, that "we" have moved on, etc.

Fukuyama has changed his mind over the past years. The whole subject has been much discussed in interested circles.

Alas it can't be discussed sensibly on a little blog like this, so we are left with politicoes spouting their nonsense about "modern" and "progressive" and "21st century solutions" and all the other drivel.

Pramston

February 12th, 2010 3:19pm Report this comment

Liberal democracy is in full scale retreat across the continent of Europe. How exactly is it 'winning'? Europe is a democracy in name only, a fig leaf for the masses. End of history my a**e!

Martin Cole

February 12th, 2010 3:40pm Report this comment

A curious co-incidence I have noted today is that between Sussex University and your guest contributor for this week we have history condensed from 1700 to 2010

N J Mayes

February 12th, 2010 3:56pm Report this comment

Ronnie / Vulture - as a Scotsman I'd prefer it if you'd refer to them as our whipped *arses*.

JR

February 12th, 2010 4:41pm Report this comment

Fraser - I'm glad you've given him space to pontificate. In terms of the book - well it was an interesting read however I never met anyone who bought the core thesis by 1998. Neither did I buy Clash of Civilisation now or then (how naive the analysis of the cvilisations look today).

I was lucky enough to have a wise professor (who's specialism was World War 2 and its aftermath) who spoke strongly of asymetric terrorism in 1998 as a potential coming force to sit alongside ethno centric violance (Serbia), and traditional state posturing.

Sir Graphus

February 12th, 2010 5:39pm Report this comment

I agree with N J Mayes; as an Englishman, I prefer the word "arse", too.

"ass" is American. For some reason, it didn't make it into the "you say tomato" song.

Frank

February 12th, 2010 6:24pm Report this comment

The man talked bollocks in 1989, why on earth bother to read the bollocks he is presumably talking now?

Archie

February 13th, 2010 3:54am Report this comment

ajs: Hush! You never know! Hopefully that ghastly, verbose, illiterate moron would be modded out on a hurry. I never bother going to The Telegraph blogs any more because of him. The Speccer is miles better anyway.

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