Kavanagh: Labour set to win big and then win again
11:46amIn The Sun this morning Trevor Kavanagh dismisses the Tories chances of winning the next election, writing:
Kavanagh goes on to contrast Brown’s workaholic determination with the Tories more relaxed approach. Indeed, it is one of the many ironies of the past few week that Alastair Campbell’s diaries that were expected to embarrass Brown have actually caused more problems for Cameron by showing just how hard Blair, Campbell, Mandelson et al. laboured for that 1997 victory.
“Gordon Brown is going to win—and win big. In the process he will likely set Labour up for a fifth term and 20 unbroken years of socialism.
Why? Not because he has necessarily delivered a better Britain over the past ten years – though he has been fiendishly clever.
But because the Tories are still soft, arrogant and – some say – idle.”
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hogarth zombie
July 23rd, 2007 12:03pm Report this commentborn to rule = too lazy to win
Og
July 23rd, 2007 12:26pm Report this commentKavanagh obviously thinks that the economic cycle has been abolished. Well, Trev, it hasn't. At some stage, perhaps quite soon, economic conditions in Britain will deteriorate. This may coincide with a correction in house prices (another area which is cyclical). It may coincide with a consumer credit crunch. It may even coincide with stagflation, though that is less likely. Brown is toast when middle England starts to really hurt. The Tories are laughably ineffective right now, thanks to Dave's liberal outreach programme, but I trust them to pull it together and act as a proper opposition when Brown's economic chickens come home to roost.
James T Kirk
July 23rd, 2007 12:44pm Report this commentI would be the first to admit I have no idea what motivates floating voters to pick the party they opt for, but I would be surprised if work ethic could screen out failure to deliver. Of course, someone needs to point out that there has been a failure to deliver...
simon hayes budgen
July 23rd, 2007 12:59pm Report this commentTwenty unbroken years of socialism. Brilliant. Don't suppose Trevor suggests when they're going to start, does he?
Anyonebutgordon
July 23rd, 2007 2:59pm Report this commentKavanagh's analysis is laughable. He's on the nail with points about the Tories lack of hunger and laziness but his conclusion that Brown will win big is based on what? Two weeks as PM when Brown has dominated the media and the Tories and to a greater extent the LibDems have been squeezed out? All economies and politics exists in cycles, at some point the cycle will turn against Labour. It is already happening economically as interest rates bite mortgage holders. After a decade of NuLab, Brown has some difficult questions to answer. If only the Tories would ask them. Somehow I don't see Brown as the political genius he is painted as. Let's wait for the first scandal or reverse and see.
Tom
July 23rd, 2007 4:14pm Report this commentBrown has had wall to wall coverage for the last two weeks, with several opportunities to demonstrate leadership: bothced terrorist attacks and these floods. The honeymoon will be over soon, scandals will hit his 'new' team and we will get to see how he copes under pressure...
David
July 23rd, 2007 5:43pm Report this commentThe problem with Kavanaugh's analysis is electoral maths-even if Cameron were to do as badly Hague (yes, let's go back to banging on about low taxes and Europe), there would be a hung Parliament. Of course, even more interesting is that fact that the swing recorded in Ealing South would give the Tories the largest number of seats.......
TomTom
July 24th, 2007 8:13am Report this commentElectoral Calculus is always an interesting site
Andrew Cadman
July 24th, 2007 11:53am Report this commentTalking to various people there is a feeling of fatal apathy towards politicians in the country. Its not just 'I dont care because Im OK, Jack' attitude, but a total collapse in belief in British politics altogether.
Ive heard many people say whats needed is a major revolt or rebellion. Its very important to stress that this is not said in some Alf Garnett style meaningless venting, but stated seriously and soberly but people who have totally given up hope of getting a party that genuinely represents their interests.
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