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Saturday, 20th February 2010

What lead do the Tories need to win?

James Forsyth 7:16pm

While we all wait for the revelations from Andrew Rawnsley’s book, which is being serialised in The Observer, there are a few things worth noting from Douglas Alexander’s interview with The Guardian today. First of all, Labour thinks that the Tory strength in the marginals means that the Tories only need to be six points ahead nationally to win an overall majority. This is significant as it suggest that the parties are in rough agreement on how far ahead the Tories need to be to win; the Tories assumption is that a seven point lead in the popular vote will translate into a Commons majority. Second, it is interesting that Alexander directly credits the media with helping Labour turn this election from a referendum on it into a choice between them and the Tories. This is a real shift from Labour conference where attacks on the press were guaranteed to be met with passionate applause at fringe meetings and in the conference hall. Finally, it is striking that Labour has—at least in theory—understood the organisational lessons of the Obama campaign. This interview and James Purnell’s decision to train as a community organiser suggests that the next generation of Labour politics understand how this kind of politics works.

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Jez

February 20th, 2010 7:33pm Report this comment

.... And to make the above article even more poignant is the fact that the Conservatives are in fact 'neck and neck' with the equivalent of a decomposing horse that been dead for the last three months- aka NuLab.

Great work guys- keep up that momentum.

welease woger

February 20th, 2010 7:41pm Report this comment

The diference is Obama was pushing at an open door. With an unpopular Bush administration it was easy to galvanise supporters and people were more than willing to listen to ideas about change.

The exact opposite is true for Labour. activists will be hard to motivate at all and it will be even harder to keep them enthusiastic when they are constantly being told to get lost (or worse).

TrevorsDen

February 20th, 2010 7:43pm Report this comment

Why should we give a tinker's about what labour think? 'Labour = bunch of lying tosspots'

Don't you get that yet?

'Alexander directly credits the media' ? What he means and what you should mean is he directly credits the BBC.

If you do not even get that, you're in a bad way.

TGF UKIP

February 20th, 2010 8:09pm Report this comment

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear! Fraser's mate Whelan apparently bragging on Twitter that a poll tomorrow will show Labour have closed gap to 6%, now YouGov at 39 -33 -17

Sorry, James, but can you tell us if Whelan is actually correct.

Almost beyond belief if it is.

strapworld

February 20th, 2010 8:10pm Report this comment

Trevors Den (alias Eric Pickles) is up to his old tricks of insulting anyone not wearing the rose tinted 3D vision spectacles he wears when writing about his beloved Cameron and the MODERN tory party.

I believe in freedom of speech and expression. TD? does not want anyone to have a view that contradicts his narrow view.

If Cameron were to win the general election he had better have a plan for action. You can expect the left wing to take to the streets on any occasion to criticise the MODERN conservatives. Strikes will be weekly and nasty events. They are far better in opposition than in government. They are far better organised for street politics than the tories. If Cameron has no plan to deal with this mass outbreak of civil disobedience he will not last a year.
It will be a baptism of fire!

The fact that Cameron has chosen to use positive discrimination for his candidates. He will use the same method to ensure that we will have a Government which will not reflect the population they are to govern.
So the extremist parties will be the beneficiaries. Cameron is nieve!

Neil Turner

February 20th, 2010 8:11pm Report this comment

In today's Mail, Amanda Platell reports how Nick Herbert, Tory Environment spokesman travels to Washington to describe how the Tories plan to allow homosexuals to marry in Church

I have voted Tory for the last 30 years, but will not support PC Dave at the next election. UKIP here I come, wasted vote or not

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1252455/AMANDA-PLATELL-Oh-Dave-stop-PC-nonsense.html#ixzz0g6nRJSoh

Dennis Churchill

February 20th, 2010 8:19pm Report this comment

TrevorsDen
But the BBC is such a dominant player in British media that its influence extends to the entire industry.
Being thought of as “Left Wing” will not damage your employment prospects; being considered “Right wing” most definitely will.

Nick

February 20th, 2010 8:30pm Report this comment

Neil Turner. And in today's Daily Telegraph Charles Moore explains why this stuff that you so object to happens:

"All the stuff about gender, class, family, ethnicity and sexual orientation was not so much political correctness as noticing the variety of people who walked down the street and wondering why so few of them voted Tory."

THX1138

February 20th, 2010 8:56pm Report this comment

TGF- Whelan is correct

It's a YouGov poll the Sunday Times tomorrow:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2462

Translates into Tories having 5 more seats than Labour..

Tiberius

February 20th, 2010 8:57pm Report this comment

Keep cranking the handle, TGF, and you might get some traction if you're lucky.

TrevorsDen: you're a bit abrasive for some people's taste - you don't have to post as if you're the only Cameroon in the village.

emil

February 20th, 2010 9:09pm Report this comment

Depends if there's a postal strike or not.

Alex

February 20th, 2010 9:12pm Report this comment

Neil Turner ..."I have voted Tory for the last 30 years, but will not support PC Dave at the next election. UKIP here I come, wasted vote or not"

Neil, who are you trying to kid with a staement like that? We all know you are a Labour activist.

John David Barnett

February 20th, 2010 9:45pm Report this comment

It will be for the Church to decide whether or not to "marry" homosexuals, not Mr Cameron.

TGF UKIP

February 20th, 2010 9:57pm Report this comment

James could never bring himself to tell you but it's now confirmed, YouGov in S.T has 39- 33- 17.

Wonderful isn't it how Dave so recontructed the Tory Party that he and it now have such magnetic appeal for the British public.

Jez

February 20th, 2010 11:19pm Report this comment

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7034960.ece

Hung Parliment at best.

A bit of advice Tories- sack the Obama / Yank PR consultancies.

They don't live near places like Bradford.

paulg

February 21st, 2010 2:55am Report this comment

There will be no hung parliament, the tories will win an outright majority. Human nature dictates that failure is punished and, labour have failed and they will be punished.
When people come to make the decision to vote in the confines of the electoral booth, they will see the face of gordon Brown and see the face of a discredited ideology,party and premier. That is all that will matter.
The conservatives are having a fit of jitters at the moment, but just think what labour are feeling knowing certain defeat is their only prize.

terence patrick hewett

February 21st, 2010 8:17am Report this comment

look what the bookies say:

Conservative Majority: 1/3
Labour Majority: 12/1
Hung: 9/4

paddypower is more reliable than all of these pillock brains.

Neil Turner

February 21st, 2010 8:23am Report this comment

Alex

"Neil, who are you trying to kid with a statement like that? We all know you are a Labour activist"

If you check out my previous posts over the last 3 years I think you'll find that your accusation is untrue

Neil Turner

February 21st, 2010 8:28am Report this comment

Alex

Further thoughts. Describing myself as a traditional conservative (small c), all I want to see is:
1. A vote on the EU - in or out
2. A stand for traditional family values
3. A commitment to the disinfect political correctness from our society
4. A clear stand against militant Islam
5. A commitment to reduce the size of the State through a cut in public spending

Not sure how many of these will be offered by Bully Boy Brown

egh

February 21st, 2010 6:14pm Report this comment

"What lead do the Tories need to win" ... if this is how they think, no wonder they have to ask the question!!!

How about "What must the Tories DO to win?" - followed by research on things like national sovereignty and immigration.

SM

March 6th, 2010 2:36am Report this comment

I must agree with egh. 'What do the Tories need to do to win the election?' Cameron has offered little in the way in capturing the publics trust and imagination as Blair did in 97? Surely this is the key issue in capturing a majority?

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