A Cameron-Clegg government
Daniel Korski 3:02pm
With even Michael Portillo predicting a hung parliament, what would Britain’s post-election government actually look like if the Tories did not secure an over-all majority.
The Tories could form a minority government, hoping to persuade enough MPs from other parties, but principally the Liberal Democrats, to vote with them on the key issues. Such a government would be inherently unstable, lurching from vote to vote and dependent on the relationship between a Prime Minister Cameron and Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, as well as between George Osborne, the would-be Chancellor, and Vince Cable, who many think is a more qualified potential occupant of No 11. Party leaders would always be eyeing each other with suspicion, fearful that David Cameron would call a quick follow-up election.
The second option is to build some kind of coalition, where the Conservatives and the other parties bat Labour back a series of policies. This is also problematic, as the Tories and the Liberal Democrats disagree on a number of key issues, including electoral reform – the issue that tore Tony Blair away from Paddy Ashdown after the 1997 election. It would also give the Liberal Democrats a lot of cards. They would be able to dictate policy, but not be responsible for any mistakes. In power but not in office, so to speak. This has been a tactic used skilfully in Denmark by the Danish People’s Party, which has gained electorally as a result.
The third possibility would be a formal Conservative-Liberal Democrat government. Here the struggle over policy could look easy compared to the fight over top jobs. But what could such a coalition government look like?
David Cameron would obviously be Prime Minister and Nick Clegg his deputy. But what else would the Liberal Democrat leader want – and get? If he opts for the chancellorship he is going to be put in charge of the economic recovery – with all the risks that entails – and have Vince Cable as a back-seat driver in the party. It is also hard to see Cameron abandoning Osborne so easily.
Clegg may be shrewder to demand that Vince Cable get Peter Mandelson’s job. The former banker would then, de facto, become deputy chancellor while the Cameron/Osborne axis, so crucial for the modern Tory party, would remain intact.
Equally, Clegg could ask for the Foreign Office, like the German FDP leader, Guido Westerwelle, has done in Angela Merkel’s government. But then what of William Hague? If Tory plans for a National Security Council go ahead - and there is no reason why they would not, as the Liberal Democrats have no alternative – foreign policy would probably be directed from the centre. The post of Secretary of State for National Security in the Cabinet Office could be created to oversee foreign and defence policy and filled by Hague. But then Clegg is unlikely to accept an essentially subordinate post.
It may be better to install Clegg in 1 Carlton Gardens and put Hague in the Ministry of Defence. That, of course, would push out Liam Fox and prevent a Liberal Democrat, like Paddy Ashdown, taking over the portfolio. But this arrangement may be best for Cameron and Clegg – who would retain confidantes in key positions. Liam Fox could then be offered either the Home Office or Health.
Experience from Germany shows that to preserve the functionality of government it is better to “give” one party a whole ministry, rather than have ministers from different parties in one ministry. But there would be many other junior posts to be filled. Such a government would also need a special coordination body, comprised only of two or three people from each party, who would trash out agreements between the parties before Cabinet meetings.
None of this may be attractive, but it could be what the voters want. Civil servants are busy drawing up plans for how to react constitutionally in case of a hung parliament. But party leaders should at least begin thinking about the political options that may be before them.
Previous
Reece Emmitt
February 22nd, 2010 3:11pm Report this commentYet people criticise the current government as 'dysfunctional'!
I do hope we never get to see the dysfunctionality of a Coalition government.
paulg
February 22nd, 2010 3:15pm Report this commentThis is all completely dillusional, no conservative would accept being in power with these misfits.
There is only one possible solution to a hung parliament, from a position of strength keep on fighting until they win.
TomTom
February 22nd, 2010 3:20pm Report this commentLet's try another scenario based on what happened to Merkel in 2005 when Gerhard Schroeder launched a fightback and denied her a majority.
A National Government is formed after Brown is removed and Cameron takes office as Home Secretary under Peter Mandelson as Unity Prime Minister to tackle the deteriorating national crisis.
Vince Cable becomes Economics Minister and John Redwood Chancellor of The Exchequer with George Osborne as Chief Secretary to The Treasury
Frank P
February 22nd, 2010 3:29pm Report this commentA possible Cameron Government is already looking like the shape of the last arse that sat on it. Shouldn't you Tory propagandists be pumping a more positive and optimistic current of reasoning? Our motive for haranguing you is get some answers to our concerns and to get Cameron include in his manifesto some of measures real conservatives want to see implemented (the ones Fraser keeps missing off your lists - you know what they are. Not to have Cameron resort to a fudge and cobble together some sort of coalition with the LibDem no-hopers, rather than form a strong Conservative government.
We all want Labour out; what we don't want is a mix and match toothless replacement. That would be worse than letting Brown stew in his own Cock a Leekie soup in a cauldron heated only by the heat of the ashes of the scorched earth below.
Richard
February 22nd, 2010 3:30pm Report this commentNice idea but it would never work The liberals hate the tories more then they hate the socialists.
My bet.....hung Parliment and then another election in 6 weeks with labour getting back under a new leader Poss that nice chap Mr Milliband. Call me Dave kicked out to form comdey trio with George and William doing the Northern club circuit.
oldtimer
February 22nd, 2010 3:30pm Report this commentI think this is a lot of codswallop.
If Cameron leads the biggest party with no overall majority, he should press ahead with his programme. If he is voted down on a key issue, he should call another general election to secure a clear mandate.
I am unclear why Cable is held in such high regard - apart from one good joke about Brown. He has been a serial flip flopper on policy issues. As for Clegg, he is a lightweight.
Jon Rosenberg
February 22nd, 2010 3:31pm Report this commentIt's hard to fathom that any of this would be "what the voters want". Britain has so little experience with coalition governments, at least within the life memories of the voters, that there cant be too many who have much idea how such a thing would work. Equally all the messy horse trading which you have described is seen by many as unBritish. Would the voters be prepared to forgive their principal party for getting into bed with parties they oppose ideologically? Would not drive much greater numbers away from the main parties, which are already coalition parties and into the arms of fringe, radical and single issue parties, furthering the break up of our current political system?
TrevorsDen
February 22nd, 2010 3:31pm Report this commentLets wait for the election result shall we.
A majority of 1 will be enough.
What utter pompous and totally fanciful stuff.
If you cannot think of anything better to write about - then don't write anything.
teledu
February 22nd, 2010 3:36pm Report this commentDaniel, you write "With even Michael Portillo ..." suggesting Portillo has some special psephological insight. Does he?
Me, I'd rather go with many of the bods on the Political betting site who know that calculating seats based simply on a uniform swing across constituencies is inaccurate.
Perhaps Portillo ought to read some of the analysis on PB before squawking like this - or perhaps he just wanted to grab a headline.
strapworld
February 22nd, 2010 3:43pm Report this commentLynn Featherstone as Leader of the House. Excellent woman.
Stepney
February 22nd, 2010 3:58pm Report this commentIf Clegg got the Foreign Office the Tory party would be split asunder with the sound of ripping canvas.
An EU enthusiast? An ex-drinker at the fountain of Brussels? In charge of UK foreign policy?
A scenario which, ultimately, would let Labour glory in power for a thousand years.
Irene
February 22nd, 2010 4:12pm Report this commentAll this hung parliament thing is really getting boring!
AndyinBrum
February 22nd, 2010 4:18pm Report this commentTories by 30
charles hercock
February 22nd, 2010 4:19pm Report this commentRemember the awful Lib-Lab pact.Please do not get into bed with the wishy-washy Liberals
saddleworth
February 22nd, 2010 4:34pm Report this commentWhat a pointless load of codswallop.
I suggest your time might be spent more productively setting out how the Shadow Cabinet could possibly find one backbone between them and then put up a fight against the bully boy and his lie machine.
Speculation now on coalitions is sending out the message that battle is very nearly lost. How the Dark Lord must be encouraged by your lack of faith - even worse that "honouring" with a Speccy award.
Get up off your knees and try to persuade Team cameron to do the same.
Frank P
February 22nd, 2010 4:46pm Report this commentcharles hercock
Isn't that taking trangenderism a little too far?
chris as usual
February 22nd, 2010 4:46pm Report this commentIs this the worst crisis since WW2? A coalition worked then.
Frank P
February 22nd, 2010 4:49pm Report this commentcharles hercock
I meant you sobriquet not your plea, but on second reading my question applies to both.
Frank P
February 22nd, 2010 4:58pm Report this commentchris as usual
Yeah but THAT coalition had Winston Churchill in charge of it. Hope you're not making odious comparisons.
HFC
February 22nd, 2010 4:59pm Report this commentYour head pic suggests that Cameron & Clegg will be sharing not just power but a woman too.
I do hope she won't be offened...
Tiberius
February 22nd, 2010 5:00pm Report this commentAndyinBrum: 30 is also my figure, but I was heartened to see Boris go for 40 a couple of weeks ago.
Roy Simpson
February 22nd, 2010 5:12pm Report this commentIf the Conservatives don't have a majority but are the largest party, Cameron should form a minority government and call an immediate English referendum for an English parliament.
Verity
February 22nd, 2010 5:18pm Report this commentWhat is most baffling is that the Tories still haven't got the message that there is no appetite for Dave and his endless new little fiddly programmes which ignore the two 800lb gorillas in the room: Immigration and Europe.
People don't like him. They don't relate to him. He has a weak, greedy face. Why are the Tories dragging their feet replacing him? If they replaced him now with William Hague, John Redwood or Danial Hannan, they could still walk the election.
They're up against the most disgraceful, treasonous government ever elected and they are having meetings deciding on twiddly new ways of presentation.
JONNY
February 22nd, 2010 5:36pm Report this commentThere's a touch of the Vichy, of the gloomy Petain about Portillo these days. If he'd been elected Leader it would have been a huge mistake.
I watch him in This Week and always think he's a natural born defeatist - no wonder he doesn't fancy the Tory chances.
Allied with a certain sulky pique and possible envy of David.
Victor Southern
February 22nd, 2010 6:03pm Report this commentEven Portillo? What claim does this disgruntled political failure have to omniscience? About the same as such as Tebbitt and Heseltine - they all want Cameron to fail. So they utter what they believe to be self-fulfilling prophecies.
They should be regarded as Dodos - Twigg it?
EC
February 22nd, 2010 6:12pm Report this commentIt will be a hung parliament because that's what the money-men want this time around. A weak government will not be able to interfere with their activities or bonuses!
With the current crop of career politicians being such self-serving duffers then maybe it's time for one of our brighter military men (do we have any?) to put his his feet under the Cabinet table and his revolver on top of it!
Vulture
February 22nd, 2010 6:21pm Report this commentMy mate Norman Baker is a shrewd political psephologist - as well as an honest MP.
He reckons the Tories will squeak home - by around 20-30 seats. he thinks Liebour will get 'hammered'
He thinks there may be a fair chance of a LIb-Tory coalition on a 'Green agenda' (heaven forfend!). He does NOT want the LDs to prop up the busted flush that is Bruin.
Nash
February 22nd, 2010 7:45pm Report this commentVince Cable has hair in his ears and speaks slowly - why does that qualify him to become Chancellor. Does tutoring Andrew Neil at Glasgow University and helping Kenya as a young man and then working for Shell qualify him. Don't think so.
Liz Brown
February 22nd, 2010 8:24pm Report this commentChrist! This sounds like a nightmare scenario dreamt up by the Yuopeeens - is there EU money involved somewhere?
John Mark
February 22nd, 2010 8:52pm Report this commentScenario: Conservatives largest party but Labour 10-15 seats behind. Con+LibDem or Lab+LibDem forms a majority.
After backroom dealing, Clegg declares that the people have rejected Gordon Brown but didn't want a Tory government. He will support a coalition with Labour provided Brown resigns, and the Cabinet force him to do so. LibDems support caretaker Labour government while they elect a leader, then enter coalition with Labour under Alan Johnson as PM. He supports electoral reform anyway, so no problem introducing it.
Of course, "the people" may disagree with Clegg's assertion that this was what they wanted. If they perceive that the Conservatives won and that government was stolen from them, they may not forgive either the LibDems or Labour. The referendum on PR is lost - of course, all the more reason to proceed without one, despite the pre-election commitment. Now where did I hear that before?
Richard Shackleton
February 22nd, 2010 8:59pm Report this commentFirstly, Number One Carlton Gardens has been sold off...
Secondly, can we get the West Wing obsessives out of both government and opposition - we already have a National Security Council...called the
"Ministerial Committee on National Security, International Relations and Development (NSID)
Composition
•Prime Minister (Chair)
•Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (Alternate Chair)
•Secretary of State for the Home Department (Alternate Chair)
•First Secretary of State, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills and Lord President of the Council
•Chancellor of the Exchequer
•Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor
•Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
•Secretary of State for International Development
•Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
•Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families
•Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
•Secretary of State for Health
•Secretary of State for Defence
•Secretary of State for Transport
•Attorney General"
Loads more on Cabinet Office website...
Simon Trad conservative values
February 23rd, 2010 9:10am Report this commentThat will be two trendy PC liberals then!
Linda
February 23rd, 2010 9:56am Report this commentYeuch!! Sounds horrific. Enough to make any sane person vote Labour surely!
fordt
April 29th, 2010 11:08pm Report this commentNO TORY RULE. KEEP THE FAR RIGHT OUT OF GOVERNMENT
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