Ashcroft has unleashed hell in the marginals

Tiberius

Nice to see some cool, considered analysis at last, David.

ollie

"The Tories will be wary that their support has, frankly, collapsed; they should do more to arrest that decline, but it’s far from panic stations yet."

the support has "collapsed", yet the tories should not "panic."

What an absurd sentence.

David Blackburn

Ollie,

Collapsed from 16-20 point lead, to 6-9, with which they will win outright, as I note. Where's the absurdity?

Vulture

I would not hold out a huge amount of faith in old Finkers as a political prophet. His track record on predictions is abt. as reliable as mystic Mogg's.

Besides, he's a paid-up Camerloon, so he's bound to whistle in the dark and pretend everything in Dave's garden's lovely.

I don't really believe that a few of Milord 'now where did I pay that tax?' Ashcroft's extra leaflets and posters will make marginals that different from the rest of the nation. The brutal fact is that the Tories will struggle to win a bare majority.

Now, if Dave could bring himself to thump a few Tory policies intead of tapping his pink and green drum that MIGHT make a difference. Too much to hope for?

mitch

Gordon isn't having a very good week is he?, look at his eyes in the GMTV interview looks like a grumpy panda.

John Ware

So the Tories are banking on winning a majority thanks to the sterling efforts of a tax-dodger/ non-UK resident

hum

Steve

This may be uniformed but ...

UKIP's ranks are made up of natural conservative voters.

Conservative seats are over represented, in that the overall majorities are much higher in safe Conservative seats.

Wouldn't this magnify the effect of a Conservative majority in terms of seats won? As UKIP would draw most of its support in seats that were heavily tipped towards the Conservatives?

denis cooper

So Cameron was right last autumn when he calculated that he wouldn't need the support of the more patriotic segments of the electorate.

Just as well for him, if not the country, because having shown his true colours - not red white and blue, but blue and yellow - he certainly won't be getting my support.

denis cooper

Incidentally, there isn't really much in the way of "in-built boundary bias".

The real problem is that the voters have been moving more rapidly than the boundaries could be moved.

Not least because there are now constituencies where many of those eligible to vote in parliamentary elections have moved out, and have been replaced by newcomers from abroad who are not eligible to vote.

cityboozer

As "debit" is not to "deficit" so "swing" is not to "lead" or "win by".

Not pedantry but an actual difference of meaning.

Andy Carpark

Cityboozer, Thou speakest in riddles, my son. Are you at home, "swinging the lead"?

Richard Buckley

Here's an idea. No doubt I am not the first person to think of it.

Let Cameron declare that one of his first acts as Prime Minister will be to set up a Royal Commission to consider and publish the real costs and benefits / disbenefits of Britain's membership of the EU.

It would cost almost nothing. It would commit the new Conservative Government to nothing. But it would bring the UKIP voters and potential voters back to the Conservative Party where most of them came from.

It would prevent a rerun of 2005 when it is generally considered that UKIP cost the Conservative Party twenty eight seats.

And once the information is out and baldly stated, it would be hard for any Government to deny a referendum on our membership of the EU in the 2015-2020 parliament.

It would also lay the groundwork for a referendum on our membership of the EU for the 2015-2020 parliament

cityboozer

Oh dear, I meant "debt" not "debit".

Deficit is the change in debt. Swing is (roughly) the change in percentage lead. The difference in important.

TGF UKIP

A great deal of wishful thinking about here. Daft Danny really can't say any other than Dave is going to win big so fervent and assiduous a Dave cheerleader has he been.

The polling figures do tell a remorseles story though, 17, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 .......? What is going on is essentially twofold. Firstly, the old keep hold of nurse syndrome and secondly and more significantly, as the election gets ever nearer and politics enters into the wider public mind, voters are being prompted to take a longer and closer look at Dave and his gang and it is transpiring that they are just as unconvinced as so many are on this blogsite.

Over recent weeks the momentum has moved overwhelmingly to Brown and this time it isn't the BBC's fault that Brown has massively dominated the news stories. It is quite bizarre that the Tories have been put on the back foot and that it is an increasingly confident Labour that is on the atttack.

This, however, was always likely to be the case when it was inevitably going to be an economics election with Osborne having to front for the Tories.

Greenslime

John Ware,

And Labour has been using all the tools that are available to the government - that is our money and it is much more than Ashcroft could provide. We all know that government money may not be used for political purposes - but we all know what a lying, thieving, disembelling bunch that is the Labour Party right now.

denis cooper

There's no need for a Royal Commission on the benefits/disbenefits of EU membership.

We already know from a number of careful studies that the economic benefits are negative, the only question being whether the net cost is more like £50 billion a year or £250 billion a year.

As for the even less quantifiable non-economic benefits/disbenefits, it ends up being a matter for individual judgement.

If somebody believes that sacrificing £50 billion to £250 billion a year, and sacrificing our national sovereignty and democracy, is a price worth paying because it will minimise the risk of Germany starting another war, then of course they're perfectly entitled to that view.

Andrew Spencer

I think "collpased" is something of an overstatement when referring to Tory poll ratings. The Conservatives were at between 40-42 per cent for most of the second half of last year, they are now at 37-39, a drop of about 3 per centage points or about 7 per cent of Tory voters. Hardly a "collpase".

The poll lead has fallen significantly largely because the Labour share has risen, from mid-high twenties to low thirties.

The Labour core had returned and the Tories have lost their top end. I think the Labour core is probably back for good, the Tories need to find that lost 3 or 4 per cent from "others" and maybe hope to nab another percentage point or two from Labour and ensure Labour get 31 rather than 33.

strapworld

Sorry denis cooper esq, richard buckley's Royal Commission suggestion is sound.

Whilst Governments are never committed to the recommendations of a Royal Commission, the setting up of this would be a superb tool to use in the negotiations Cameron has, allegedly, promised us all on various parts of the treaty.

Should the recommendation be a referendum of the people on continued membership that, again, would be a powerful argument for Cameroon to use.

But could we rely on Cameroon to actually live up to this? Of course not. He is a slave of Brussels.

If he were to make such a promise it may make a lot of people consider supporting the tories.

Personally I would also like a royal Commission on Policing and Sentencing policy.

inigo jones

RICHARD BUCKLEY :: An eminently sensible proposal, which I have raised myself, but not so well put. As a UKIP voter myself, the promise of a rational assessment of the pros and cons of EU membership, coupled with a Referendum, would guarantee my vote for the Conservatives in the Election. And that's a genuine CAST IRON pledge!

Beer Moth

'Poetic ejaculation'?

Come again?

denis cooper

strapworld & inigo jones - you're easily satisfied.

Cameron followed Brown and Clegg by telling lies to wriggle out of promises on the Lisbon Treaty, and he's made it perfectly clear that he would never hold an "in-out" referendum.

A promise of a Royal Commission which at best would tell us what we already know - that we're paying through the nose to be ruled from Brussels - would be small beer.

david craine

i live in one of the marginals being targetted by the conservatives and quite frankly i am sick of being leafleted and generally brainwashed, its insulted my intelligence and i am now more inclined not to vote tory, i don't trust this ashcroft guy, whats in it for him and why is he spending so much money trying to buy my vote?