Getting the Tories back on track

Frederick James

Hiring someone who is not bloody well innumerate would be a start. Bloody arts graduates. This has got beyond a joke now.

TrevorsDen

We have had loads of labour propaganda and another re-launch (one which was again hit by a scandal) and slogans galore.

We also have had a focus on the inevitable cuts with labour shouting that the tories are murderous baby eating cutters, whilst they labour by some alchemy will not make cuts at all whilst at the same time making cuts but not really making any sort of cuts that you would notice.

So inevitably labours core vote has firmed up. But both tory and labour vote has struggled post expenses crisis, the high others vote has made it difficult for tories to get above 40.

But on the subject of polls - here you are talking about them, but do you have any idea of their methodologies and how they are weighted and if any of this makes any sense? Mike Smithson on PB.com points out that some polls weight ('second guess') the 'will not votes' and 'don't knows' In one isntance this turned a 9 point lead into a 7.

Angus Reid give the tories a 12 point lead - 14 in the marginals. Just who do you believe when you make these doom laden predictions?

SUSAN HILL

James.. the problem is Cameron. He has spent too much time in the easy years trying to be like NuLab only not.. Heir to Blair, the silly pic with the huskies, getting Zac Goldsmith on board so his eco-credentials seemed good and more lately the positive discrimination re women candidates, the sucking up to the pink vote,.. he has never ever articulated any strong Conservative policies, traditional policies. He appears to have been so afraid to upset the left that he has forgotten his own core voters. He has to stand up and make some very clear firm policy statements, and soon. He has to put all the green/pink/wimmin stuff on the burner behind the back burner. People wil listen if he talks clearly about the economy, immigration and traditional values. And he isn`t doing that.
And you are so right about Hague. I think he is extremely popular, he is seen as a straight talker and a good strong Tory - and I also think Cameronnis jealous of him, which is why we have seen and heard little of him. Very very foolish.

TrevorsDen

Silly and hysterical Ms Hill

But is you really want to get excited Guido is reporting that the BBC are on red alert for an election announcement over the weekend. Presumably this is the last chance for March 25.

The Grand Old Duke of York rides again ...

saddleworth

Whilst there is nothing unreasonable in this analysis it does overlook the necessity to attack Brown's performance relentlessly. Not doing so runs the risk of creating an impression for the electorate that either the opposition think it doesn't matter or that they don't object to his record. The incumbent is the worst PM in living memory (and to be worse than Wilson or Heath is some achievement) this needs to be explained over and over until the voters undrstand that anyone is preferable to this lying incompetent in No 10.
PS Osborne has to do better than merely playing to the gallery on banks. They weren't the originator of our present woes - the last time I checked the Treasury were meant to be in charge of economic policy. They could have reigned in our asset bubble/debt explosion but didn't. It makes far more sense to go after that target than footling about with bank bashing. Simply following Brown's lead in this makes Osborne complicit in Brown's scapegoating of the banks to draw attention away from his imbecilic policies.

Norman Dee

Hague would be the ideal guy to get back to maximising their own core vote which hasn't voted since 92, get back to good Tory priciples, get back to chasing Europe, as Dan Hannan said yesterday the majority of the british don't like what is happening in Europe, lets get them into the polling booth again.

Andre

Hague, Boris Johnson, Daniel Hannan - the real Tories are out there but their message of fiscal probity, commercial acumen and one nation consanguinity is all but obscured by Dave's idiotic rainbow rumpus room. Some rainbow - no gold at the end of it, no point even making a wish.

denis cooper

Whatever the election is about, it's not about whether to reverse a major constitutional change which took place on December 1st 2009.

Even though two of the main political parties previously had no problem with it while the third main political party opposed it, consistently maintaining that it would have no democratic legitimacy in this country unless it had been authorised by a national referendum.

So whichever of those three parties or combination thereof takes office after the election, we already know that:

a) Much of our future government will have no democratic legitimacy; and

b) All three of those parties believe that it's OK for much of our future government to have no democratic legitimacy.

So of course I'm not going to vote for any of them, and nor should anybody else who believes in our national democracy.

Nick

It's so depressing listening to the same point made time and time again that all Cameron needs to do is retreat to a more austere, slashing public spending message.

That would ensure Cameron an extremely solid 30%. Add in a promise to have a referendum to leave Europe and you could add the 3% UKIP share. That's a solid 33%.

However Cameron needs 40% to win. That's why there has been an need to move away from the core vote. What is it about this that some of you don't understand ?

Bear in mind that most people were positively surprised by Thatcher's radicalism and strength once she had won the Premiership, very few knew what they were letting themselves in for prior to 1979.

Simone

Susan Hill:
"People wil listen if he talks clearly about the economy, immigration and traditional values."

Yes. I'm a disillusioned Conservative voter.
I would vote Conservative again if David Cameron stopped the pc, multicultural rubbish.

Boris got my vote because of his patriotism, his love for all things English,
and his stated hatred for things that are
"divisive".

Why isn't David Cameron learning from Boris?

Basically, I want my country back, and if David Cameron won't give us those traditional values again, then my vote goes elsewhere.

stephen

A lot of sense here let's hope our Dave listens to it before it's too late. For some reason the Tories just are not gaining traction. Brown is in such a mess and the Tories just cannot land a ko especially on the economy.
Using Hague more and possibly Clarke could help here, although I despair of Osborne he just does not look the part of the Iron Chancellor and does not sound it either. His key note speech last night got derisory coverage. The Tories problem is Dave is far too close to his Boy George[see FT profile of Cameron yesterday]
I am just hoping our Dave heeds some of the Coffee House's advice and we are not heading for a Hung Parliament and a collapsing pound.

2trueblue

TrevorsDen, agree with you about the election announcement, this is Browns last chance to go and Liebore think things are on the up for them. Also, it is now too dangerous for them to wait for the next set of economic figures, or people to get their paychecks, or their council tax bills, fuel bills, all of hese things can not be hidden or spun.

Cameron has to find his flow and get the message out there, Hague is such an underused asset, All the real assets within the party must be used to show how versatile the Tories can be. So far Cameron has been chasing the side liners and must ensure that we the Tory loyalists do not side line him.

paulg

How to get the Tories back on track? What’s gone wrong and why?
Well I think the Andrew Neill test should be the one that the Tories have to pass; the Tories whinge that he is too hard on them but that is what he is paid for.
He is trying to forensically take apart the Tories stance on cutting the deficit wanting facts and figures, stating that they have changed their position over and over. This appears to be a weakness in the conservatives’ argument, but in reality it can be strength.
The prime minister has gone into this recession the length and depth of what the recession will look like, initially he said six months, then another six months, then another, on the vaguest of green shoots he announces that it is over! All the while the labour spin machine has tried to tie the Tories down to specifics. It appears only the chancellor was willing to impart anything like the truth to the British people, for which the ‘forces of hell were unleashed upon him’ from NO10.
Denial, deceit and spin lie at the heart of this government asking people to produce figures on what they will do is like asking accountants to sign off accounts produced by Enron and Bernie Madoff? You would be a fool to believe a word they say.
The conservative argument has reflected the realities of the developing situation that has been exposed at that particular time.
No company launching a take over would articulate exactly what they would do especially if Madoff was signing off the accounts. No, a broad statement of intent and a vision of how you would run the company would be the only position you could adopt. It’s the only position you can honestly lay before the share holders.
Spin lies and deceitfulness cannot be countered by specifics unless you have the figures to hand.
Another point Kirsty Wark was bullied mercilessly by Phil Woolas over immigration last night, whilst that old bruiser(I was going to say bastard) Andrew Neill would not put up with any of his lies, bullying and nonsense and tied him in a knot today. It just goes to show rational argument which kirsty tries to employ does not work with these bullies.

Jess The Dog

A Tory victory is still on the cards even with a 6 point lead. The marginals poll reported by Political Betting indicates the key role these will play, undermining the standard uniform swing assumption that 8% to 10% is required for a Tory majority. Lack of an activist base following massacres of red-rosette councillors will severely hamper Labour's ability to mount local campaigns.

The Tories need to get Cameron out more, on the airwaves. I believe there is a correlation between his visibility and positive ratings.

And the wheels will come off Labour's campaign as soon as Brown leaves Downing Street for Buck House. Think the Tories are shambolic? Ain't seen nothing yet....

Just keep calm.....

Tiberius

I'll add my opinion in support of TrevorsDen and 2trueblue (and on the previous blog), but would add that William Hague is very much using his time to win votes (as I'm sure James is aware) by pounding the beat in the north of England.

It may look good having him tie thickos on the TV in knots, but he is doing more for his party by touring constituencies.

Nicholas

So many disillusioned Tory voters and so much to say about it on Coffee House.

So many problems with Cameron and the Tories as a potential incoming government. Oh, dear.

I despair. It is like the French spending more time worrying about how the Allies will behave when they land in France on D-Day than how to get rid of the Germans. Sacré Bleu! Do we really want to be liberated if the Allies are not quite what we expect or don't match up to our French principles? Perhaps we would be better off with the devil we know and the occupation should continue. Alternately we could focus on liberation by the people of Tonga instead (by voting for - insert name of small, irrelevant party here).

Mind boggling stuff after 13 years of New Labour and that which everybody really, really knows about them, especially those of the right.

And before all you doom-laden naysayers descend on me, I also despair at Cameron, think his shadow cabinet is incredibly lazy and generally useless at political point scoring, and that the best of his policies have been effectively concealed beneath wooly green and pink pap. Not one of them is aroused or enraged by what has happened to Britain and even old war horses like Clarke do more snorting and pawing the ground than FIGHTING.

Liz Brown

KISS - or "Keep it Simple Stupid"
too many mixed signals at the moment

Willie de Peepul

2trueblue
February 25th, 2010 8:04pm

The reason Mrs. Rochester hasn't done it yet is that the flames of her own Goetterdaemmerung haven't quite taken hold firmly enough . . .

Tim W

I would suggest the three main themes/slogans:

'Are you better of than you were 5 years ago? And who will make you best off in the next ten years?' - focus on the long term, children etc. as Labour's policy on spending is all short term Keynesian stuff and they have no defence on the Long Term economy.

'Labour has stuck its claws in everywhere its not wanted - its their natural instinct not to trust people. The Conservative promise is a Power Revolution. From the state to the people, from us to you'. This is the nearest we could get to inspiring people. Cliches should be somehow avoided though. I think people would believe this after Labour's record.

'Learning from successes around the globe to improve education for the poor, giving every child an international standard education. A foundation to mend our broken society.' - Goves education plans have been dismissed as a 're-election policy'. This is too lazy for my liking as its the best policy area we have. Taking the best from Finland, Sweden and the USA gives the Conservatives an edge over Labour on Education. How many times can you say that at an election? To be better than Labour on a key public service will be crucial to winning Lib Dem and Labour voters.

All my slogan are obviously not punchy enough but I'm sure if some bright spark had to give simplicity and clarity to them then they'd be a good election winning strategy.

THX1138

Tories loser how many elections(remind me) by trying to appeal to you lot- I'm sorry but you just don't represent modern Britain..The only reason that the Tories are in the game at all is because DC detoxified the party & moved it to the centre..

It's not your country anymore, it's mine now and it ain't ever coming back to your way of thinking - A quick stat, more young Tory voters co-habit that Labour voters.

Kevin Kearney

I become disillusioned with the Tories the day they announced the policy of not holding the promised EU Referendum. In return, I will not vote for them.

Verity

Nick writes: "That's why there has been an need to move away from the core vote. What is it about this that some of you don't understand?"

Nothing. We understand, Nick. You are not blessed with any particular insight.

Our problem is, Cameron has abandoned everything that makes a Tory a Tory in the hopes of persuading people violently opposed to the Tories to vote for him. In doing so he has chased Tory voters away.

Because Cameron is far more important than the party. Cameron wants to be PM at any cost.

And he's chasing the votes of people who will, in any case, be voting Labour or that SDP or whatever it's called.

If he had stuck to right wing policy, he would have walked this election. It was truly an open goal. Chasing a few other votes has alienated traditional Tory voters, and frankly, until he leaves the stage, they'll stay alienated.

TrevorsDen

Dear Simone - in what way is Cameron PC and 'multicultural'?
The tory immigration spokes man got himself arrested because he exposed Labour on immigration.
You as are others (if you are not trolls) are hysterical. Your criticisms are so wide of the mark as to be risible.
Labour are on 30-32 in the polls - down to 26 in one.

Indeed one really must wonder just how 'tory' you are.
As Nick says - to follow your advice would just lead us back to Michael Howard territory.

The truth is the Tory message is not a happy one. We must cut govt spending. Hardly a riveting slogan.

But lets hope the polls encourage Brown in to an election - the country needs one.

Pete, Scotland

Where is the anger and frustration that many of us feel?

Where is the passion to put things right?

He comes across as too controlled (devious & calculating) and aloof (out of touch).

If I remember correctly, the Tories were doing better when Cameron was on the telly angry and passionate about making things better, I felt that there is someone I could vote for.

Now, all I am seeing is is some wishy washy, politically correct leader of just another political party.

When the election comes the Tories will get my vote if they have passion and fire in their bellies, which seems to be lacking at the moment.

John David Barnett

Need an election? I'd prefer a military coup myself.

Nicholas

THX Puff Puff Bluster Blow(hard) : "It's not your country anymore, it's mine now"

Really?

Simone

Trevor:
"Dear Simone - in what way is Cameron PC and 'multicultural'?
The tory immigration spokes man got himself arrested because he exposed Labour on immigration."

The Conservatives have barely mentioned immigration, and possibly the most explosive political issue of the decade - Neathergate - has passed them by completely.
I am furious about that!

A member of the Shadow Cabinet was even praising the burka on TV, claiming that it demonstrated respect for women! That was truly a low point as far as I am concerned.
It won them no friends in the current climate.

Also, the way the Tories have deliberately
pushed ethnic minority/women candidates into safe seats is deplorable. That is New Labour territory! It should be the best person for the job. I won't vote for someone who got there via positive discrimination. They may be very good, but if they got there via political correctness, then they definitely lose my vote.

As for possibly allowing the Labour government back into power... well, perhaps
its the only way to get a more right wing government next time round. Admittedly its a high price to pay, but how would the Conservatives of today be much different anyway?

And yes, I am a lifelong Tory. My family
campaigned for the Tories in the past.

Simone

THX:
"Tories loser how many elections(remind me) by trying to appeal to you lot- I'm sorry but you just don't represent modern Britain..The only reason that the Tories are in the game at all is because DC detoxified the party & moved it to the centre.."

Actually, the only reason Labour won elections at all is because Tony Blair moved it to the right.

Britain has become more conservative in recent years (see a recent poll). In fact,
England in particular has always been conservative.

Remember also, Red Ken Livingstone was booted out of London and replaced by the Conservative Boris Johnson.
So you are wrong.

Hand2theplough

I do enjoy a good old bit of Tory in-fighting. Keep it up.

Holly ......

I am a core Tory voter and I WILL be voting Tory at every election as long as I am able.
OMG!The polls have gone down...
OMG!The polls have gone up...
OMG vote Tory get Tory.
Don't vote Tory get the hand gun & cyanide.
So all you 'real Conservatives' scream all you like,we do not act like Labour voters,
we actually go out and vote.
Some might not like the changes,some might not like the leader,but we know Conservative
policies get the country moving,always have and this line up is no different.
Labour supporters on the other hand have been betrayed,on all fronts,in all aspects of their lives,by their leader and their party.They will also be more unforgiving because their leader and their party has called them racist,flat earthers and middle Englanders if they dare speak against them.
They will not vote for this Labour party or this Labour government and they will stay at home.
David Cameron has not betrayed his core vote
he has not lied to them,he has not lost them
their job,or home,or wrecked their pensions,
or bailed out the banks Gordon Brown has done that.
What has Cameron done that is so terrible that 'core'voters will not vote Conservative
after what Brown has done?
Changed the party & moved away from the hard
right policies that lost us the previous elections and dragged it kicking & screaming
into this century.Unforgivable?
Not a good enough reason,so are they really our core voters any more,and if not,do we mind losing them?
The dissolusioned Labour voters that vote Conservative at the election will far outnumber the 'ex tory' now UKIP voters.

Verity's Salon

"Silly and hysterical Ms Hill...". Trevor's Den - light, elegant diplomacy forged on the template of Talleyrand to be sure..

The only thing is, she's correct, and I know she's correct because it is what I have observed, and commented on, myself.

porkbelly

"the key figures in the Tory election campaign gathered together in Notting Hill"...Notting Hill...says it all, really.

Archie

How on earth can the self-confessed "heir to Blair" (I have yet to see a rebuttal or denial) criticize New Labour, for would that not be a repudiation of everything he stands for? As for voting for him, why would I not vote for the present incumbent as I can see no difference between them? No thanks, at ANY price!

Vulture

At last John David Barnett has spoken sense.

Britain is broken. And broke. Liebour have bankrupted the nation with their fiscal irresponsibility. They have deliberately ethnically cleansed it with Third World Muslim peasants to maximise their vote. They have presided over the collapse of hospital standards (Stafford); educational standards (dumbing down); and standards in public life (Exesgate, political civil service, Damian Mcbride).Finally, they have handed control of our nation to an unelected foreign body (Lisbon). They have ruined Britain - perhaps irrevocably.

They are presided over by a probably mentally ill, mendacious, evil, maladjusted bully.

The official opposition, as James rightly states, is in crisis. Directed by a tiny clique of louche, addled upper class toffs totally out of touch with the concerns of the electorate; they are economically illiterate, gaffe-prone; and weirdly obsessed with marginal issues of scant concern to the vast majority of worried and frightened voters.

Their leader is an arrogant PR millionaire who has never had a proper job; has alienated his own party loyalists; is guilt-ridden about his wealth and class and has tried and failed to make the party in his image. He has refused to challenge Liebour's ruinous policies on the economy, immigration, Europe or crime and has in fact acquiesced to them. He is about as 'modern' as the Eton Wall game.

He has not 'moved to the centre': he has moved sharply to the left and shed millions of votes for no comparable gain. He is,
in short, an incompetent, arrogant idiot.

Faced with the worst Govt in history Tory poll ratings are falling through the floor.
And the Camerloons assure us that he has made his party popular and electable. They are clearly having a laugh.

Mr Barnett, you are right: faced between the two Tweedles, the Army is the last bastion of sanity and decency left. Let's see the colour of their tanks.

THX1138

Simone I take your point but I would say TB won 3 elections because he detoxified the Labour brand and moved it to the centre, just like Dave is trying to do.

strapworld

Vulture and Mr Barnett. You now know why Labour have placed the military thousands of miles away!!!!

country mouse

Susan Hill's post is the best summary I've seen for a long time.

EC

THX1138, February 25th, 2010 10:35pm,

The country will be yours inasmuch as the future approaches us all at the same rate. However, demographically, the future of the UK, if it has one, belongs to the elderly. The tax burden on the minority young working population will increase and they will vote with their feet making the imbalance worse. Unless the government confiscates everybody's passports then anyone who can leave will leave. Who can blame them? Why should they pay off other peoples' debts?

One of the main reasons the DDR collapsed was because that so many young and talented people left, escaped, that it became inviable. The DDR became "Der Dumme Rest!"

oldtimer

What a mess. It (Tory disorganisation) certainly looks like another reason for Brown to for an election now (March vs May). The other reasons are that it would enable him to dodge the Iraq enquiry, dodge the budget, dodge dire 1st quarter economic results, dodge pre-election brown trouser moment as sterling implodes. Just think, it would be four McCavity moments in one bound.

General Zod

Correct, Nick. What the crazies just don't get is that there are 10% of voters who are they key. They are mostly idiots, easily swayed at the moment by Labour's stoking of their fears. These are the ones who brought Labour to power in 1997 and kept them there. They don't understand the situation the conuntry is in, just the headlines, so Labour tries to manage the headlines with ludicrous statistics such as the 0.1% growth figure.

They are the ones wavering in the opinion polls, but mostly still sticking to the Tories (despite the hysterical reactions of some commentators who ignore that YG consistently gives the Tories a smaller lead than most others).

Andy Carpark

THX1138, February 25th, 2010 10:35pm

Anything else to which you'd like to lay personal claim? Tomorrow, for example?

Kennybhoy

Verity's Salon(Oor Verity??):

"The only thing is, she's correct, and I know she's correct because it is what I have observed, and commented on, myself."

In plain English this translates as "because I say so!" That's us told!" ROTFLOL

welease woger

Vulture you are so wrong.

You write: "He has not 'moved to the centre': he has moved sharply to the left and shed millions of votes for no comparable gain."

That is clearly not true. For the last two elections the Conservatives have been stuck in their comfort zone of 32%. Even if we believe the current polls (polls which have historically underestimated the difference in Labour's favour by 2%) this has been raised considerably. I'm sure we are all disappointed that the lead isn't bigger but to say that Cameron is losing traditional votes with no gain is patentlu untrue.

You also state: "Faced with the worst Govt in history Tory poll ratings are falling through the floor."

That amused me because I'm sure similar statements were made about Thatcher's Conservative in 1979. The Callaghan government had brought us the winter of discontent, unburied dead and most shamefully called in the IMF. Yet the Conservatives "only" won the election with a 7% gap. Yes its vote share was higher but then the Liberals were much less of a force and these were the days of much more entrenched class- based, tribal voting.

I know you think I am a "camerloon" (such a charming way to engage in debate) but there is much I would like to see him do differently. However, I do believe he is a "true conservative" just not the same sort of "true conservative" you are, presumably the sort who doesn't vote Tory.

He may turn out to be a damp squib PM or a great one, probably somewhere in between but as with all PMs he will be made or broke in office. Come what may it will be so much better than what we have now.

Simone

Holly:
"What has Cameron done that is so terrible that 'core'voters will not vote Conservative
after what Brown has done?
Changed the party & moved away from the hard
right policies that lost us the previous elections and dragged it kicking & screaming
into this century.Unforgivable?
Not a good enough reason,so are they really our core voters any more,and if not,do we mind losing them?
The dissolusioned Labour voters that vote Conservative at the election will far outnumber the 'ex tory' now UKIP voters."

First of all, back in 2005 Iraq was still such a massive issue that it overshadowed everything else. Even I didn't mind Tony Blair being re-elected because I supported the war, I supported his close relationship with America, and right-wing Americans (and many Brits) loved him for it.
We didn't know then what we know now about the economy and about the true scale of immigration.
So it was all very different.

Secondly, I'm not convinced that Labour voters will vote Conservative this time round. The BNP will hoover up a lot of their votes. Many won't vote at all.
Actually, traditional Conservatives are the most likely group to vote. So I don't agree with you - I don't think they can be ignored.

JONNY

Thanks once again Verity for your entirely predictable comments on Cameron.
I have noted in some of your previous posts an enthusiasm, almost gushing in its intensity, for Norman Farage.
Having seen the clip of him in his recent ranting bully-boy Euro outburst I can now easily understand why you have such a powerful fellow feeling for him.

Simone

THX:
"Simone I take your point but I would say TB won 3 elections because he detoxified the Labour brand and moved it to the centre, just like Dave is trying to do."

Well Labour has certainly been toxic for the working classes. His government ignored them completely and replaced them with cheaper foreign workers.
The middle classes gained for a time, but that bubble has burst now too.

Hugo van Randwyck

I agree with the comments about Europe. Also many voters feel there isn't anyone to vote for, they are sick of MPs with their hands in the till.

If you look on the Parliament website, for All Party Groups, you will find there is a group for the European Union and also enlargement, and bees, table tennis and cheese! Is there an All Party Group for EFTA - European Free Trade Association www.efta.int - and alternative to the EU? No.
So all the Lib/Lab/Con/EU manifestos can have policies over ridden in the next 5 years by the EU - this sort of democracy may seem normal to MPs, however voters have a different opinion.

If you are a student, with a loan to pay off, and you see house prices rising ridiculously again, then why vote for the 3 housing bubble parties? Why increase bankers bonuses again. Parties which aim for a gradual shifting of the economy away from the banking/estate agent sectors to families, will likely get more votes.

Also the economy is more complex now, it makes sense to have any tax and spending for Scotland decided by Scottish MPs, English MPs do the same for England etc. Maybe give the people of Northern Ireland a referendum on becoming an indepedent country and member of the Commonwealth, like Canada and Australia, with Her Majesty as head of state and a Governor General.

Ghengis

Oh dear, Oh dear, Mixed messages -- Mixed results. Brown is persuading 30%+ of the voters that he will be able to spend his way out of the mess he has got us into. Whereas, in fact, all parties are in the same hole, to which there is only one exit. Tebbit appears to be the only Tory openly facing the facts of electorate's anger. Oh dear.

Holly ......

Simone,
Blair/Iraq are way,way down the list of what
people are bothered about today.
The underclass will be fretting about their benefits,but will still stay at home.
Dragging half a dozen kids along is off putting & not having English as your first language is a bugger.
The working class(core)Labour voters will not be voting Labour,because they hate Brown & Co.
As one comment on the 'Hain slot' posted...
"would rather cut their hand off than allow it to vote Labour".The piece by Hain is asking them to vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out.Most of the comments are,quite frankly in some cases,telling him to f..off!
Why should they vote anyone to KEEP Labour in power.
So if anyone is 'hemorrhaging'their core vote it is Labour.
Like I said the dissolusioned ex Labour voter will far out number the ex 'real Conservative'voter.
Your theory can only work if all the ex
'real Conservatives' vote UKIP on the night.
Their thoughts will change once the election
is called.Will they have the confidence that enough people will vote the same to keep Labour out?Brown will STILL be PM even in a hung parliament.
Will the dissolusioned Labour voter have the same appetite for five more years of this ramshackled Labour government?

paulg

I apologise about this sentance it does not read properly- I should have read it before posting!
The prime minister has gone into this recession(without acknowledging) the length and depth of what the recession will look like, initially he said six months, then another six months, then another, on the vaguest of green shoots he announces that it is over!
The economy and economics is an esoteric science to many people and must be simplified the use of a metaphor will work better than explainaitions, hence, the prime minister has built a giant ponzi scheme. Its easy to understand.

Secondly, the tories must offer practical solutions to the recession:
1. bi pass the banks, I think the state own the giro bank so loans to small and medium size business must be offered directly to stimulate demand. Most goods are bought on credit kitchens, settee etc are bought on credit. British manufactures must have these lines of credit open to them.
2. Mr Brown has taxed everything for the last 13 years these taxes must be scrapped, the so called green taxes have put a break on flight and holidays, scap them to stimulate demand.
3. HIPS should be scrapped to get the housing market moving again.
4. stamp duty should be scrapped for first time buyers, they will need to buy everything new.

Other people can offer their own suggestions but growth in the wider economy through lower taxation is a conservative first principle, but the best bit is the slogan 'the many not the few' can become the conservative slogan, and every one can see how.

skynine

The best result would be Brown back in power with a very small majority and like a small boy being told by the IMF to clear his room. The Government wouldn't last 6 months and Labour would be forced to call another election without any money in the bank and no support.

Verity

Jonny - You appear to be not very well connected. Those of us who have met Mr Farage and talked with him find him altogether admirable, articulate, right-minded and witty.

kennybhoy - ROTFLOL does you rather. I'll bet you use emoticons in your emails.

michael

The ONS 0.3% growth rate proves the Tories economic predictions. it also shows how they can genuinely and successfully adapt policy to changing sets of circumstance.
Though it kills me to admit it, I'm quite impressed...ish

Kennybhoy

So that was your post then?

Verity. You are a living, breathing charicature. The very model of latterday Wingnuttery! A legitimate, never ending source of what the young folk call lulz. Please don't ever change!

Holly ......

Farage?....MEP..EU trougher
Hannan?....MEP..EU trougher
Palin?.....NUTTER.With lipstick & a hockey stick.

Fabian the Fabulous

...Norman Farage.
Having seen the clip of him in his recent ranting bully-boy Euro outburst..
Bully? Rude? Well, he's right, though, isn't he? And unlike Rompuy, he's been elected.

Kennybhoy

"You appear to be not very well connected. Those of us who have met..."

Oh this just gets funnier and funnier! Name dropping now! Did you get a picture of the two of you together? Tell me honestly now, do you have a collection of pictures of yourself with famous folk?

Simone

Holly:
"Blair/Iraq are way,way down the list of what people are bothered about today"

I know, but you were suggesting that the Conservatives lost in 2005 because they hadn't adopted enough modern, liberal policies. I think you're wrong about that.

They lost because so many right wingers identified with public school educated, Christian, pro-American Tony Blair. Middle England put Labour into power and they weren't desperate to get rid of him in 2005; the country was (apparently) ticking over nicely, and we had yet to realize the full extent of Labour's betrayal of this country.

Now it's different. Middle England is ready to return to the Conservatives, but the Conservatives have become New Labour!

Verity

I mentioned Farage because the trite personal remarks that are made about him by people who have clearly never met him are irritating. There are repetitive, paint-by-numbers trolls who have started a squat here and the fug's getting a bit thick.

I sense envy and anger here as Farage is not in a position to do any damage to our national fabric, even if he wished to, which he most assuredly, as he demonstrates, doesn't. But there is hatred and dismissiveness anyway. Why? Why not save your spite for people who have earned it by their deeds and influence? People like the gruesom Gordon Brown, for example. The sly, sleazy, oily Tony Blair. The greedy, manipulative bad actor, David Cameron? The coven of fat Labourite wimmin? The BBC? Labour council jobsworths? The political correctness fascists?

There's plenty to hate in Britain. Why waste your wrath on someone who is on the team that wants to see Britain free and prosperous again?

Verity

Holly, it was Palin's son who played (ice) hockey over 10 years ago. Not Ms Palin.

What is so unusual about lipstick, Holly? If those two references are all you can remember about Sarah Palin, I'm glad your not on a voter's roll in the US.

JONNY

Yes he's right Fabian the Fabulous
but these crude loutish insults turn us all off.
Even those who agree with him.

The Man

It's the economy, stupid. It always is.

The Tories fatally drank the Kool-Aid of Gordon Brown's pre-2007 economic policy - (remember all that guff about 'sharing the proceeds of growth'?) and failed to develop any kind of rational critique of Labour's record or policies, in the way that Vince Cable did. So now they have very little credibility on economic matters and their every utterance and 'clarification' merely adds to the general confusion. They are at the mercy of events beyond their control.

Immigration, Global Warming and all the rest are secondary or tertiary issues. And Europe is just a distraction - it's not unimportant but a protest vote for UKIP is not going to make one jot of difference except to ensure a hung parliament which will have disastrous consequences for all.

JONNY

Trust Verity to defend a crude plugger.
And she's met him too! Wowee!
He's all yours darling.

John George

The reason is the EU and the fact that Mr. Cameron ditched a commitment to a referendum on continued EU membership last November - perhaps advised by a UK unCivil Service who have an interest in the EU's continued hegemony as a charter for "bigger and better" and costlier Government.

The Tories thought they had got away with it - but they haven't and who gives a damn if minority parties, labelled extreme ny the main stream, get a few seats in Westminster. The wave of protest will have started. There is no difference between any of the major parties and the electorate has finally twigged.

The people who make a living out of politics - journalists, politicians, bureaucrats and big established business leaders alike are going to get a shock this year.

The Tories have no idea how unpopular this EU institution, imposed by stealth by the political and governmental classes backed by hidden money interest, has become.

The rush to one world Goverment will be stopped. It doesn't take a degree in political science to understand this, just a chat with any person now running a small business in the UK who believes in a country free from over-bearing Government interference at national and local level who have become out of touch with the people.

Simple - but no one appears to be listening, a very dangerous situation indeed.

As for ex-Tory UKIP voters being outnumbered by Labourites moving to the Tories what planet do they live on?

UKIP is out there converting the apathy vote that knows something very serious has happened to politics in the UK - even thought they can't quite articulate what it is since it is not discussed in the media.

The EU will be yesterday's institution in a few short years. Time to rebuild our democratic institutions while there is still time.

Kennybhoy

Verity wrote:

"...trite personal remarks that are made about him by people who have clearly never met him are irritating."

Ye gods! Do you have any self-awareness at all? Trite personal remarks about people that you have never met are your speciality! Not to mention sweeping, lazy generalizations about whole nations and categories of folk that earn your displeasure! Witness your recent remarks about the people of the Netherlands!

welease woger

Yes Verity, let's have no trite personal remarks!

TGF UKIP

In the middle of yesterday evening I put up a fairly lengthy post on James' piece. This post did not appear and neither did two subsequent posts complaining of its non-appearance.

With a total of three non-appearances I complained by e mail and received a swift reply acknowledging that my two posts of complaint had been blocked and that my original post could not be found which was "a fairly regular occurence"

My reply was a damn sight too regular and as I gather from the complaints made by other CHers the problem is by no means a TGF one only and the most irritating thing is that the missing posts are frequently those lengthy and time-consuming ones.

Can I suggest that when comments disappear into the black hole of Old Queen Street, CHers complain long and loud to Fraser Nelson, as I am about to do, and tell him it's long past the time that this site was properly sorted out.

The Man

@John George

You're deluded. What poses a greater threat to the UK now? A bond strike or the EU? Do you really believe that UKIP stand any chance of forming a government that will be in a position to withdraw from Europe, let alone address our calamitious economic circumstances?

How about this for a scenario: you and your Europhobe pals go off and vote for UKIP, shrink the Tory vote resulting in a hung parliament, the bond markets decline to finance our debt and we end up having to go to the IMF for a bail out with all the conditions that implies. Then we'd have lost control of the one area of policy that Brown has not ceded - our economy. Is that the outcome you're looking for?

As per my earlier post, the Tories haven't covered themselves in glory on economic matters but a Tory government with a reasonable majority (and mandate to address the deficit) represents our best hope for getting out of the almighty mess Labour has got us into. Wake up.

Kennybhoy

TGF,

Tell me about it.I am into double figures for lost posts this week. Aye I know that I should compose on Word and then cut and paste but I get caught up in the moment and think that this time it will be okay....

Having said that. The ones I write calling David Blackburn names do tend to vanish into the aether more often than the others...? LOL

Kennybhoy

Regarding The Man's two magisterial posts above.

AMEN

Ex-Tory voter

James, the problem is the disconnect between Cameron's idea of Conservatism and the voters'. We want to talk about policies on immigration (a no go area for DC), realistic proposals for Europe (DC just waffles about repatriating powers), and the end of political correctness (imposed shortlists is DC's response), while some Christians among us, although not opposed to civil partnerships, are not happy with the idea of gay "marriage" in church; frankly, the idea of encouraging the immigration of African homosexuals purely on their orientation rather than what they might do for the country strikes me as bizarre. I think I may not be alone there. But if it makes you happy to think The Tories are languishing just because the election campaign strategy is split up between four people, who am I to disabuse you?

Marcher Baron

"The dissolusioned Labour voters that vote Conservative at the election will far outnumber the 'ex tory' now UKIP voters." Not in my experience, Holly. Most Guardianistas will vote LibDem or Green. Some will possibly vote BNP. Some Scots will vote SNP. The general feeling is that they would poke out their eyes with a stick rather than vote Tory.

Marcher Baron

@denis cooper "Whatever the election is about, it's not about whether to reverse a major constitutional change which took place on December 1st 2009." Au contraire, mon ami. If that issue is not addressed, the rest, as the Bard had it, is silence.

TGF UKIP

Kennybhoy, little point in complaining to the indians, try rattling the chief's cage.

TGF UKIP

Reprising the whole of my original comment is beyond my powers of recall, as well as my inclination.

I do, of course, recall mocking James (who worships the Mekon second only to Dave) for his assertion that the Tories "need his vision." Indeed, I would suggest that the very last thing the Tories need is yet more of his wheeze-a-week gimmicks. In fact, all that those daft Mekon ideas have done over recent weeks is to make the Tories look even more unfocussed and confused than ever - if that were possible.

What I did do though, was suggest that our dear Political Editor might care to reflect on two things.

Firstly, The rich irony that Dave, who has been a huge beneficiary of nepotism all his adult life, now stand to be undone by his own nepotism. Callow, inexperienced and vastly over-promoted (in both senses,) instead of availing himself of seasoned heavyweight advice and assistance he turned instinctively to his equally callow etc best mates, Osborne and Hilton and it is probably a toss up which of those two have been the bigger disaster and millstone.

Secondly and more importantly, our dear Political Editor may care to reflect that given how much easier opposition is than government and given what a useless opposition Mr 5% and his Clique have provided, just think what a truly fucking hopeless government they would make.

All you Tories who profess to care deeply for the Conservative Party should be praying that Dave and his clique do not form the next government, they could and will destroy any Conservative Party record for competence for decades to come.

Fabian the Fabulous

Jonny: these crude loutish insults turn us all off.
Who are 'us all'? Not me!
Very uplifting to see Mrt Farage rumpling the stuffed shirts who appear to resent the interuption of their important work of forging a European state run by and for bureaucrats.

Holly ......

Simone 2.38.
I was implying nothing of the sort.
We lost the '05 election because immigration
had not impacted on anyone then.People were
spending on their plastic and everything was lovely.
Howard was too far right,'threatened'the status quo and portrayed as a racist and it stuck.
We are now exactly where we should be...
talking to the left and the centre NOT just to the 'real Conservatives' right of the party.

Having posted this in reply to your first & second paragraph,I scrolled back up to reply
to the next bit of your comment, & I find that we actually agree.
You think I suggested that the Conservatives
lost in 2005 because they didn't go far enough to the left.
I am saying,"We lost in 2005 because we went
too far to the right".
The centre is the only place to be if you want to win an election.
I believe we are exactly where we need to be to do that.
And remember...Blair created New Labour in OUR image.....NOT the other way around.So If DC had said,heir to Brown,I could understand people moaning,but he didn't.He saw through Blair & the New Labour project,
which failed because the Labour party was stuffed full of looney toon lefties,who blocked him at every turn.He should have fired Brown,but the left would have got rid of him even quicker and he knew he would have lost the 2001 election,so said sod it and became the 'Tone' we know today.
David Cameron is the best thing to happen to the party in donkeys years.
I absolutely trust him and any road up,if I am wrong,the country will be in a damned better position,financially and morally in five years time than it is now,because of
the team he has.
Will the country vote him out in five years time?If the country is in a better place?
The electorate are jittery,they are mad as hell at the expenses scandal,they have lived under Labour's boot for so long they don't know which way is up.Some have never known a Conservative government.So give the polls a miss.They mean nothing.
The Sun/YouGov? Do you believe them?
The Sun.After all this time.So early on in the election process,is really backing the Conservatives? I certainly don't.
But hey,I'm bais towards the Conservatives & hostile to the left/Labour/Lib Dems & the BNP.