Is Brown about to call the election?

Alexandrovich

"I saw this woman the other day, she was like this."

"What - massive knockers?"

"No, arthritis in both hands!"

Hawkeye

I can see why you do not bet at races. The longer Brown waits the worse things will get. With the polls reporting a 5% tory lead, this is as good as it has been for years.

Brown dare not have the budget. A reasonable budget will alienate Labour voters, a political budget will alienate the money men. Brown cannot win on the budget front and you cannot lose the budget and win an election 2 weeks later.

Brown would have to utterly, utterly mad to even think of such a thing......... oh wait..... Hmmm...

oldtimer

I hope so.

Sir Graphus

Cameron mention "an election in 6 weeks" at PMQs this week.

Irene

Surely it's all a smoke screen - we have Rawnsley's next instalment and also the Tory Spring Conference? - Brown must know Labour are not doing well in the marginals.

Then again he is unhinged.

Holly ......

Read the 'comments' after Hain's story.
City bod just been on Sky saying 0.03% 'growth'is basically cr@p & the wrong type of growth.He also said the election should be called early & the budget postponed.
The pound has dropped again.

Martyn Rowe

Bring it on! Labour will get smoked.

ps - anyone see the QT audience in Cardiff last night? Geez, if they are representative of the Welsh public I'll eat my trilby. I'm not usually a BBC conspiracy theorist but I must say, I've spent all 32 years of my life in Wales and I've never met an avid EU supporter. Not once. Last night's audience was full of them. Did the BBC do this on purpose?

Michael Hargrave

Now that Darling has signaled that he will deliver his own budget, they only way that Brown can prevent this is to call an election. I would not put it past him to use that ploy to stymie his Chancellor.

Rosencrantz

The effect of the revised Q4 GDP figures needs factoring in. The upwards revision to 0.3% growth is bad news for Brown: it makes it harder for him to justify his “fiscal stimulus today/cuts tomorrow” mantra; the revision therefore weakens his position against the Chancellor when it comes to the message to be spelled out in any budget. Brown and Balls won't like that, since it will blur the dividing line they have been trying to set out between Labour's position and that of the Conservatives. Thus the revision weakens Brown's position electorally as well.

Conversely, the revision will make it easier for Osborne to "sell" his deficit reduction agenda. Much of the Conservatives’ paralysis on the economic front over the last few weeks can be traced back to the publication of the original figures indicating Q4 growth at only 0.1%. Today's figures change all of that.

What does that mean in terms of election timing? Logically, Brown should call the election now before his chancellor gives the game away in the budget. Brown does not, however, function logically. If true to form, he will simply dither. Thus it would be out of character for Brown to call the election now.

TGF UKIP

A few weeks ago I put bets on a March or April election and on Labour winning most seats - you see I do have faith in Dave.

Madeleine Poubelle

There has just been a rush to grant British citizenship to an extra 200,000 immigrants. In whose constituency do they live?

Ian C

Martyn Rowe

In all probability - yes. I was once (2007) in a QT audience and they send out a quite comprehensive survey of what your attitudes are to large items such a the EU.

I have given up watching it since I participated as that was about the last sensible show - with Tony Benn, M Phillips, B Berezovsky, Julia plod from the Lib Dems and I can't remember the Minister. The highlight was BB giving out free copies of 'Death of a Dissident' afterwards.

Naomi Muse

With all the pantomime 'ours is better than yours' and 'look out behind you' going on, we're already into mad electioneering, and that shows that Gordo is trying to gain an advantage, whilst still in government.

Like @Hawkeye, I think he cannot afford to have a budget for the polls will plummet.

But Broon is stubborn and contrary so he could just hang on under the impression that he is the only one who can do the job....

strapworld

Martyn Rowe. I live in Wales. In a very Plaid Cymru part. But the antipathy towards Brown and the Liebour Party is just as strong as elsewhere.

Like YouGov- as I mentioned in an earlier post- where I am regularly contacted to participate in polls but, strangely, never political ones, and it proved that I am not alone in that strange position. I put that down to my right of centre beliefs and the periodicals I purchase etc.

I applied for Question Time tickets and you have to state your political leanings. Age etc. I have never been asked although I am close to Liverpool/Manchester and could easily travel to cardiff. It was in Conwy last year and I never got a look in!!

Last night's audience was stuffed full of Plaid and Labour supporters. Not ONE question on Staffordshire NHS. Not one Question of the plight of that poor girl starved to death in Birmingham. All, in my view, were Liebour/Plaid friendly.

When you consider the polls which show over 60% against the EU the support for the EU shown by that audience was qyite, quite amazing.

I have no truck for Farage but they certainly went for him. Which shows a fear by the BBC and Liebour/Plaid for the Ukip and I would say the BNP.

But it was the number of very young people last night. Obviously the Students Unions must have arranged a coach trip!

Frankly, I would have thought the Conservatives should complain loudly about it. The BBC are there to be kicked at the moment and they should cry bias again and again.

That said I was very impressed, strangely by janet Street Porter. Faraage held his ground excellently BUT the star for me was Dr. Liam Fox from a start where he got hardly any applause to the end when people listened to him and applauded him he was the star.

Hain was his smarmy self. I expect him to re-join the Lib Dems when Labour collapse the election after this coming one.

On the issue Mr Blackburn has written. I think Brown will call the election and I think he could still remain Prime Minister in a Minority Government. Probably held there by Plaid and the Ulster MP's.

They will not last long and will lose badly in an autumn General Election against the Tories under a new dynamic leader, Cameron being kicked onto the back benches where he belongs.

Ask yourself a question. If Cameron was not the leader. What office of state could he manage?

Ian Walker

Martyn: the QT audience is always stuffed with local government employees; this is a good ruse because in theory local government is an equal opportunities employer, and so the Beeb's noses are clean, yet of course it often attracts the worst kind of student socialist, since they know they'll never have to grow up or face reality.

I always listen to the superior Any Questions nowadays.

As for Brown calling an election, it's quite simple - going now would be brave, decisive and a mark of assurèd confidence in his own character. He's proven repeatedly that he's a cowardly bully, a ditherer and an emotional wreck. Ergo, he'll cling on until the last possible moment.

Frank P

Heh, heh, heh ... Oh my, oh my!

Right On

I remain absolutley convinced that these polls are wrong. You can generally tell the mood of the country and compared to 2005 there is no chance that the Tories will win only 4.5% more of the vote than they did then, and that Labour support will fall by only 3% - it quite simply doesn't make sense.

TrevorsDen

Brown would be daft not to hold a March 25 election.

The problem for Brown is the latest poll is from MORI who do not politically weight its samples and also only include in their headline figures those who are 100% certain to vote. Thus it is hugely vulnerable to sample variation.

BTW - over at PB.com they are pointing out the YouGov unweighted figures are 43 28 15 ....
Go figure.
Clearly you would hope a poll sample was representative of the electorate as a whole, but can it turn 43 to 37?
Can a desperate govt really rely on these statistically manipulated polls.
Does a drowning man grasp at straws?

Food for thought.

RMH

He should be bold and go to the polls on the crest of a wave, as otherwise it may fade

JONNY

' If Cameron was not the leader. What office of state could he manage?'

Uh Foreigh Sec... Home Sec...
but he'd do better as PM.
As always strapworld has a schoolboy shyness when it comes to naming a rival - unless it be the ghastly bullyboy Farage - a weirdo fixation he shares with Verity.

welease woger

I agree with Ian Walker. This looks like the best time for him but in his deranged mind he probably thinks something will turn up and he'll sweep to a glorious victory.

I still reckon May but I hope I'm wrong.

John David Barnett

Strapworld

You seem not to be impressed with our elected Leader.

Why?

And what alternative leader can you suggest?

Seeing that an election is pretty close, ought we not to be putting our shoulders to the wheel and giving Cameron our support? If we do lose then that will be the time for recrimminations.

Or are you a closet Brownite - a Labour troll?

Dorothy Wilson

On his past form whichever decision Brown takes it will be the wrong one.

As far as the polls are concerned, I too am puzzled by the large difference between the raw data from the YouGov poll showing 42 28 and 18 and the adjusted figure cutting the Conservative lead to 6%. I can understand an adjustment being needed to iron out slight wrinkles in the data. However, when that adjustment leads to such a large downgrading of the Conservative lead it suggests to me that there is something questionable about the polling method.

In any case, I'm more inclined to take note of the large difference between recently released figures for the donations received by the Conservatives and those received by Labour. Money goes where the power is likely to lie!

PS I gave up watching Question Time ages ago. It has become a farce.

oldtimer

Of course there are several reasons (posted earlier on another thread) for Brown to call an election right now:
poll gap narrowing, dodge giving evidence to the Iraq enquiry; dodge having to live with a Darling controlled budget; dodge queasy looking 1st quarter GDP data; Tories in dissarray/off at the seaside. In a hung Parliament he could still remain the PM, could appoint Balls as Chancellor, could do a deal with the LibDems, he could tax till the pips squeak. Meantime the Tories would be in turmoil, with the leadership discredited having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. It must be very tempting.

Yet, yet... what if the narrowing polls are all part of a Tory conspiracy to lure Brown into an electoral trap? Look at the size of the adjustments made to the YouGov polls this year (check out polticalbetting.com). Can the Sun be trusted? Might this be one big media conspiracy? Will paranoia rule again? Can the Brown fingernails survive this torment of doubt? Will he go for it...or bottle it?
Has Brown been forked again?

I watch with interest and fascination.

natasha

Given the widespread antipathy towards Brown and the Labour Government more generally, you have to ask yourself what force could be powerful enough to be causing a marked narrowing of the polls at such a late stage in the Parliament. The strengths and weaknesses of specific individuals involved in the Conservative campaign, as discussed by James Forsyth in this week's Spectator, is insufficient as an explanation.

The answer is, I think, clear enough. The Tories have allowed a perception to develop that they have drifted back to the Right on economic issues, a development which many voters, preoccupied with holding down jobs in a weak economy, will not welcome. The Tories have spent too much time talking about the need for public spending cuts, and too little creating a positive narrative about how they would make the country a better place to live in for most of its inhabitants. If I were cynic, I might of course add that putting oneself in the shoes of people who are struggling financially and fearful for their jobs is not something that necessarily comes naturally to Eton-educated millionaires. However, the important point is that the Tories start, at this late stage, to correct the perception that they have drifted back to the Right.

The Laughing Cavalier

Election campaigns are usually three weeks. Even if the Dour Leader went for Thursday 4th March + 3 weeks the election would take place before Easter weekend, which is Friday 2nd April – Monday 5th . As elections are usually on a Thursday that leaves March 25th or April Fools Day if it is to be before Easter. If it is to be after Easter he might as well wait for May 6th. We shall see, it looks like a false alarm to me. I’d still risk a few bob on no election at all this year. It wouldn't take much, a terrorist incident of monstrous proportions discovered all of a sudden or the Argies encouraged secretly to attack the Falklands, following which McTweedledumb wraps himself in the flag, cries “A patriotic war is no time for a novice”, invokes The Contingency Powers Act and cancels the election.

EC

@TGF - Today are offering:

Con: Maj. 1/2 Most seats 1/12
Lab: Maj. 12/1 Most seats 6/1
Hung Parl. 13/8

Winning a seat:
UKIP 2/1
BNP 11/4

Maggie

".... in his deranged mind he probably thinks something will turn up...."
He's mulling over the possibility of starting a Falklands War.

Hardy

is this a premature April fools, I cant see any Government going for a 1st April GE.

strapworld

Jonny. J D Barnett. I am a disillusioned tory. I have not named a better leader.
Hague. Boris. Clarke. Hannon. Davis. Fox.
Each have far better qualities than Cameron.

As for being impressed by Brown. Who the .... can ever be impressed by that incompetent. But when you see how badly Cameron is doing convincing the people that matter, that MUST tell you something?

The problem with people who follow blindly is that they ignore the obvious. Cameron, as I have repeatedly written is no leader!

Roger I

Ian Walker, " Any Questions better than Question Time". Its debatable whether Jonathan Dimbleby's sanctimonious interruptions and expressions of his own views are any better than David Dimbleby's malicious non sequiturs. Last week neither of them dared air the subject of the misuse of British passports in Dubai and Any Questions confined itself to questions of the "What's your favourite colour?" variety.

Andrew

I think there should be a campaign to ensure clergy of the Church of Scotland stay celibate so that a future generation cannot produce another Gordon Brown.

Frank P

Most people I know express their frustration by this type of remark,"It's obvious who we want to vote against, but wtf do we vote for?"

Can we therefore have two elections: the first immediately to vote on whether we we wish to retain the current government - a straightforward, "Yes or No".

If the majority of voters tick the 'Yes' box. Game over! And we carry on for another 4-5years of handover to the EUSSR and all local authorities to the Muslim Brotherhood and Sharia Law.

If there is a majority "No" vote. Then the government steps down and we vote for an alternative from the parties or alliances that remain or wish to step up to the plate.
All MPs from the party of government to be disqualified from re-running.

That should produce and interesting outcome.

Frank P

natasha

Drifting to the Right, my arse! If they dress any farther to the left, anatomically and geographically speaking, they'll be pissing in the Atlantic.

Moraymint

A lot of Tory voters will be telling the pollsters that they do not intend to vote Conservative because they remain so p****d off with the Party's performance to date. By so doing they're keeping the pressure on Cameron to get a grip of the Party's policies and performance (in communicating those policies).

However, on the day, in that polling booth, those same folk will vote Tory because they know it's the only surefire way of destroying Brown and the Labour Party.

The Tories will landslide into Parliament.

johnny carter

the polls will we neck and neck by may,and labour will win with a 20 seat majority.do the british want a tory party that can not even get a simple policy on married tax breaks sound ok,lol.they are joke and they have been found out.

Martyn Rowe

Thanks to Ian C, Strapworld and Ian walker for filling me in on the QT audience.. I was head-scratching a bit last night - I couldn't understand how Wales was being represented as an EU loving federalist nirvana.

And Natasha is spot-on with regard to the polls narrowing. Labour have dissembled, lied and misrepresented the Tory policies (something Brown, to be fair, is brilliant at doing) and the non-poltics-following public have derived a simple, if false, message from it. ie - Tory Government = massive cuts, job losses, more recession, dispassion.

If they put across a bright, punchy message about job creation, tax cuts for SME businesses, less regulation, it would gain more traction.

I think one of two things; either the Tories have something up their sleeve once the real election fight begins (possibly a removal of tax from all those earning under £10k) or, more frighteningly, the Tories know the economic outlook is far worse than any of us realise and a 'true' message about what they'll need to do to put it right will have Christmas loving turkeys running back to Labour (as they appear to be doing en masse in Scotland and the North East - another reason for the polls tightening).

Let's hope it's the former.

Rob C

Good arguments either way, but I think Brown will a) call the election for April and b) get slaughtered.

Why? Well in the first instance his 'lead' isn't going to get any better and he needs to show confidence. If he waits until the bitter end then everyone will argue that he knows he's going to lose. In addition, he knows that the first quarter 2010 will show negative growth.

The reason he will lose is that the Labour vote share will have grown in confidence and yet is itself only lukewarm to Brown. Thus the better they do in the polls, the less likely they are to vote. Yet the anti-Brown vote will despair at the increasing prospect of another 5 years of self-destruction and those undecided on Cameron will take the chance rather than risk a protest vote away from the main parties or not voting. Thus I foresee a squeeze of both the LD and Others when election day comes - unless the poll gap widens. The YouGov polls are already starting to show the pressure on the LDs.

Ironically, the narrowing of the 'adjusted' shares may improve Cameron's chances of a landslide and will also make them 'up their game'. Despite what the polls read, taking into account the effect of the marginals and the prospect of more Brown I think the 40/28/17 split is a more realistic take with the 'others' shifting slightly towards Conservative and Labour. If Brown were to step aside at this stage however, even now that could really be the big danger for Cameron... The risk for Labour is that is Cameron gets in and proves to be a fair champion of the 'centre ground' then Labour could be in the wilderness for years to come - if not indefinitely, (depending on the LD's performance).

Cameron's relative weakness in the polls (they should be at 50%+) is also his trump card because it's due to low expectations. If his first term is fair and undoes much of New Labour's damage to politics (and the country) then his second term could wipe out an already discredited Labour party - to the benefit of the LDs. As we all know, the bar is currently so low that he could hardly fail to exceed expectation!

Martyn Rowe

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE61P2SD20100226

Bottled. Again.

Right On

Yes Johnny Carter - what the British public is most interested in is the failure of the Tories to articulate a policy on marriage tax breaks. That has made them forget 13 years of mismanagment, of lies and spin, the raiding of the pension funds, the rock bottom sale of the gold reserves, an eye watering deficit, a 50p top rate of tax, a disfunctional government who achieved little in 13 years and absolutley nothing since Brown schemed his way into no. 10.

As the lead slipped to 6 or 7 points I thought there might some odd pre-election movement, at 5 points the poll is wrong simple as....

JONNY

Apologies strapworld
I got my knickers in a twist, hadn't properly studied your piece,
and I trust no hard feelings.
But whatever you say or write or think about Cameron we must all back him now
otherwise Brown will be permanently stuck to the rockface
and it'll take the sharpest oyster knife ever invented to prize the bugger off.

David Ossitt

natasha

“The answer is, I think, clear enough. The Tories have allowed a perception to develop that they have drifted back to the Right on economic issues”

I believe the exact opposite to be the case; the electorate can now clearly see that David Cameron is set in the mould of an Edward Heath, when what we all yearn for is someone with the stature of a Margaret Thatcher.

stephen

What a wonderful thought all this Election nonesense could be over in a month. I do hope Brown has not asked the BEEB to clear the decks for one last major bit of gesture politics; or God forbid in one of his apparent titanic rages he launches a nuke on the Argies to "teach them a lesson!"

jaybs

It would be foolish for David Cameron to have played his hand and reveal all the cards of policy before the General Election campaign proper starts.

Kennybhoy

Moraymint wrote:

"However, on the day, in that polling booth, those same folk will vote Tory because they know it's the only surefire way of destroying Brown and the Labour Party.

The Tories will landslide into Parliament."

"Just so, I tell you, that there will be more joy in Heaven over one sinner come to repentance..."

Ex-Tory voter

Speaking for myself, Moraymint, I shan't be returning to the Tory fold on polling day - unless, of course, Dave has seen the light on the road to Bruxelles.

Natasha, one of the (many) reasons Dave has lost my vote is that he's far too much of a liberal leftie for my liking. I'd like to see a return to One Nation Conservatism. Reading some of Margaret Thatcher's electioneering reminded me of why she was voted in. Aspirational and direct. Dave, sadly, just offers more of the same, if somewhat lilac tinted, as the "heir to Blair." I couldn't stand Blair and didn't trust him. Dave would do well to re-read some of that earlier election literature.

2trueblue

Polls, what do they tell us? Unless you know how the question was phrased, they tell you very little. One interesting point. The polls are all over the place, but the bookies odds on Brown winning are not that hot.
Now do you believe polls produced by people whose affiliations we know nothing about, and the 1500 asked whatever, or the many more who have their money where their mouths are, and are likely to vote?

Brown will announce the date on Monday.

jabys, agree with you entirely. Until Brown calls the day we will not see Camerons list. It is frustrating and Cameron must nail Brown/Liebore for flip flopping about the cuts, to do or not to do.

logdon

"Peter Hain has written an article for the Guardian, wooing Lib Dem voters"

Have you read the comments?

Astoundingly,anti Labour. And astoundingly anti Labour, if you'll forgive my Trussism.

I just don't get the polls.