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Thursday, 4th March 2010

Labour drops a point, Tory lead up to six

James Forsyth 12:44am

The new YouGov numbers have the Tories steady on 38 and Labour down one to 32 while the LibDems are on 19. Again, these numbers are within the margin of the error. The biggest impact of these numbers will be to strengthen the Tory view that the Ahscroft affair is a media obsession of little interest to the electorate. But I find it hard to imagine that the whole sorry affair is not doing reputational damage to the party.

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Informed Giant

March 4th, 2010 1:55am Report this comment

First comment past the point! No margin of error.

Stephen

March 4th, 2010 2:16am Report this comment

So its ok to take donations from a non-dom who rips off pension funds, have a minister who resigned for effectively selling passports to foreigners and for Tony Blair to be a non-dom. However its not ok for someone who has set up Crimestoppers, supported the troops more than Brown and saves VC`s ?

Frank P

March 4th, 2010 2:44am Report this comment

"But I find it hard to imagine that the whole sorry affair is not doing reputational damage to the party."

Why? Are you suggesting that Ashcroft has stolen his money, or that it is the proceeds of some other crime. It's not necessarily a crime to bank money offshore. WGAS how Ashcroft spends his own money. If I had any I'd stash it away from the reach of Gargoyle Brown, that's for sure. I wouldn't give any to the Tory Party either, but if that is his wont, whose else's business is it, anyway? It's all bollocks and I can't imagine why you're harping on about it, unless you want to to damage the Tory Party by innuendo. Ashcroft is no more corrupt or useless than any of the other members whose arses very occasionally polish the red benches of the Upper Chamber of the Gasworks.

mitch

March 4th, 2010 4:57am Report this comment

You would think Labor might be campaigning on their record in office.

Fergus Pickering

March 4th, 2010 5:47am Report this comment

Perhaps I've got this wrong. I wasn't really concentrating. It does seem to me that a rich man paying not much tax is a bit of a dog bites man story. Didn't Lord Paul sayb there were a hundred of them in the Houseof Lords? Anyway, Ashcroft makews agreement with present government. Ashcroft changes agreement with present government. Doesn't tell Hague and Co because they might be upset. So the Tories DON'T know about Ashcroft's agreement but Labour do know. Now they throw up their hands in surprise. What are they surprised about? And since when was it 'unpatriotic' not to pay taxes. In would have thought it my patriotic duty to withhold all the taxes I could from this lot. Oh, and what is the name of Harriet Harman's accountant? Oh, and does Tony Blair pay British tax on his zillions made in the States? In a pig's arse, I suggest.

Vulture

March 4th, 2010 7:12am Report this comment

I just think its interesting what stories the meejah - particularly the Bruin Broadcasting Corp - choose to big up : Ashcroft being a blatant example.

Why, for example, are the Beeb still banging on abt Milord for the third day rather than (say) the Cabinet split between Straw and Postman Pat over whether to uncover Jon Venables' new ID? (Don't tell me: I know - because the Beeb are Liebour stooges).

As Frank so eloquently says, WGAF about the whole issue, and WHY aren't the Tories making more noise abt Cashcroft's Liebour equivalents: Paul, Mittal and Cohen? Short of state funding, all parties are going to get their dosh from dodgy sources - Liebour are just blubbing because no-one's giving them any, except the dirty money of the Unions and the above-mentioned trio .

b) Clearly Dave and Hague were embarrassed by the whole issue, but Cashcroft's dosh was too valuable to lose. Let's hope its done its work and displaced enough Liebour MPs in the marginals to get rid of this lousy Govt.

c) A final, irrelevant thought: I had not realised that the foundations of Cashcroft's fortune was the funeral business. (Where there's stiffs there's brass). Is that where he acquired his permanantly frozen expression of a Victorian funeral mute? You can just imagine him in top hat and tails leading the cortege at a steady pace. Has anyone ever seen him smile? I think that as a wizard Bullingdon jape Dave and Boris should stage a mock funeral for Liebour with Cashcroft leading the mourners, and flinging a few fivers to newly-unemployed Liebour MPs.

strapworld

March 4th, 2010 7:27am Report this comment

Harman said, in PMQ's, that Lord Ashcroft had misled the country!!!!

THIS from the party that misled Parliament and the Country on WMD and the whole basis of the war in Iraq. AND let us not forget the reason for going into Afghanistan (where no shot would be fired!).

As for Hague, on the BBC last evening, I am of the opinion that the Tories do not want to win. They fear what they will find!

Personally I believe it would be poetic justice for Brown to reap what he has sowed.

BUT Please no more Lord Ashcroft blogs. Unless it is to highlight, as Kelvin McKenzie did so well last night on Sky News, Lord Ashcroft's good works.

NOT ONE PENNY in expenses claimed by Lord Ashcroft compared to the many thousands by Lord Paul. Something to put in your pipe to smoke!

Duyfken

March 4th, 2010 7:32am Report this comment

It's not so much the Ashcroft affair itself but the fact it has been revealed at this late stage, that has me perplexed. What lack of nous is shown by a Party which should have lanced this boil ages ago? With such an example can we really expect a Tory government would be less incompetent than the present incumbents?

Boudicca

March 4th, 2010 7:33am Report this comment

As far as Ashcroft is concerned, I think the electorate is far more savvy that Labour give them credit for. They know that Labour has accepted huge sums of money from very dubious sources - the whole cash for peerages saga may not have resulted in prosecutions but the general belief (if you go by the comments) was 'no smoke without fire' or 'not innocent, just not proven guilty'.

Labour has its own wealthy non-dom donors and also receives vast sums from the Unite Union. This is a case of Pot, Kettle, Black ... and the electorate knows it.

When we have slimebags like Mandelson (who most people know about) elevated to the Lords, why should we worry about Ashcroft, who most people have never heard of.

djw2009

March 4th, 2010 8:09am Report this comment

the conservatives are steady on 38 - not up in that poll. It is only a change between Labour and the Lib Dems that produces the 1 point improvement in the Con lead. You made it sound as if support for the conservatives is increasing! Does the Spectator work on commission for the Conservative Party?

Sean Haffey

March 4th, 2010 8:29am Report this comment

This obsession with daily polls is pathetic.

Get on with leading and the polls will follow.

cmp

March 4th, 2010 8:38am Report this comment

Boudicca - 'I think the electorate is far more savvy than Labour give them credit for'

This cuts to the reason the polls are narrowing. The electorate are not listening to nuanced argument, the paltry 6 point lead shows that.
Labour know EXACTLY how savvy the electorate are.

AndyinBrum

March 4th, 2010 8:44am Report this comment

As much as I dislike McKenzie, I agreed with him about Ashcroft.

WGAF being 'who gives a farrage?'?

Marbury

March 4th, 2010 8:59am Report this comment

What you find hard to believe, I suspect, is that people aren't that interested in politics, even a few months before an election. After all, you thought the political classes were *underestimating* the effect of the Brown bullying stories on the electorate. I find it hard to believe too which is why I don't always trust my own judgement on these matters - or yours.

THX1138

March 4th, 2010 9:01am Report this comment

djw2009 Just Like ConHome which is owned by Tory supporting tax cheat Ashcrof, The Spectator is owned by Tory supporting tax cheats The Barclay brothers. Saying that I have always found The Speccie hacks to very fair in their reporting of the ups & downs of the polls, I hope it continues.

BenM

March 4th, 2010 9:18am Report this comment

With regards Ashcroft's "good works". How much has he put into those charities as compared with the tens of milions in taxes he would have paid had he been domiciled in the UK?

I'm sure as hell not happy with a few scraps here and there as if that's alright and makes up for avoiding his dues to the country in whose election he is meddling so deeply.

SUSAN HILL

March 4th, 2010 9:23am Report this comment

The Ashcroft business, in so far as most 'ordinary people' understand it, simply confirms their opinion that ALL politicians are crooks. That's why it isn`t a big deal for voters.

Richard

March 4th, 2010 9:23am Report this comment

Even Jacob Zuma has more credibility than Hague today.
The press packs are out for Hague and he will come under pressure to resign from all sides.
When the lead was 2 points the cons said its a blip now its 6 wow! big deal....truth is your campaign has hit the buffers. Senior Tory grandees must be feeling very uncomfortable today.
You are going to lose either Ashcroft or Hague today...lets see you spin that.

John Bracewell

March 4th, 2010 10:00am Report this comment

I do not understand the comment 'it is within the margin of error', margin of error from what base?. If you look in detail at all the Opinion Polls and forget the publicity stunt of daily polling, you will find that YouGov consistently reports Conservative leads at the bottom end of the range of possible values. It can quite reasonably be argued therefore that the range is 7%2% with YouGov sitting in the lower end range of 5%-7%. The idea that daily polls reflect the news stories of the day is laughable. A better approach would be to poll weekly and concentrate in the marginal seats, then a truer picture of the eventual situation may be found. The polls are an indication if looked at over a long period, a distraction from real politics but above all a good money spinner for the pollsters and newspapers that run the non-stories associated with a point or two differences in Opinion Polls. To all the pollsters, if you disagree with the above, then prove it, and good luck with that.

TrevorsDen

March 4th, 2010 10:00am Report this comment

Since when did morality enter p[olitics?

Certainly not into labour politics - I cannot get worked up over Ashcroft.

But the YouGov daily polls have been statistically manipulated so as not to change over day to day issues. Heaven knows what other ways this or any other poll has been manipulated - sorry 'weighted'.

The polls show that labours cares and propaganda has shored up its core vote.

As long as people dally with the likes of UKIP, Brown will be happy.

THX of course talks his usual self serving rubbish. None of the people he mentions are tax cheats - any more that say Lewis Hamilton or Jackie Stewart or Sean Connery - or me if I had the money .

Nicholas

March 4th, 2010 10:08am Report this comment

THX1138: puff, puff, bluster, blow(hard). The Michael Winner of the Coffee House - more boring than a house full of woodworm.

Tax cheat? That makes you a "blogging cheat" then.

And it is quite ridiculously beyond parody that after 13 miserable years of bullying, cajoling, preaching, finger-wagging, criminalising, snooping and completely screwing and screwing up the country, New Labour are now a "government" wholly engaged in campaigning against the opposition. And what a campaign. A slimy continuation of the underhand and filthy smearing of McBride, Draper et al. What absolute shits.

No wonder puffing billy supports them.

Archie

March 4th, 2010 10:12am Report this comment

Talk about clutching at straws!

Vulture

March 4th, 2010 10:29am Report this comment

Dear Richard - or may I call you plain 'Dick'? (that name seems to suit you much better).

Jacob Zuma has enormous credibility.

Anyone who can satisfy a bride some 30 years his junior, have an even younger one lined up (Plus two older models in the garage); and father 20 kids and counting at his venerable age not only has enormous credibility but is a tribute to the fantastic virility of the Zulu nation.

Why can't our pols have a millilitre of his spunk?

But back to your post: there is about as much chance of the Tories losing Hague - their prize asset - as there is of Mr Zuma taking monastic vows of chastity. Or injdeed of you writing an intelligent or witty post.

I know you are new on the job, but why don't you get Alistair or Peter to lend a hand - or even Gordon. Just ask : I'm sure they won't mind.

You are insured for head injuries caused by low-flying Nokias, aren't you?

John Bracewell

March 4th, 2010 10:32am Report this comment

My earlier post should have read 7% plus or minus 2% (the margin of error), the arithmetical signs did not print.
Agree wholeheartedly with Nicholas's comments about the Labour party, the only question is 'shits' a strong enough word?

Richard

March 4th, 2010 10:40am Report this comment

@Vulture
Hey call me what you like....its only a reflection on you not me. I have a name abuse as you feel is appropriate for a caring new Conservative.
With regard the other content of your post.
You do seem to be making the point that multiple wives and the sexual prowes is of more importance than the moral credibility of one of your most senior Shadow cabinet ministers. I dare say that if Mr Zuma decided to run for the Labour leadership your views might take another path. Perhaps not!

Natasha

March 4th, 2010 11:08am Report this comment

Regarding the Ashcroft affair, William Hague is reported as having said "The fox has been shot". I can't help feeling his choice of words could have been more adroit.

M. Rowley

March 4th, 2010 11:17am Report this comment

And now we have the blessed Vince Cable claiming that Lord Ashton has stolen £100 million from the British taxpayer. Uhhh? This is the sort of cretinous mindset that pervades the MSM and modern British politics, in that somehow the state has first dibs when it comes to your money. Incredible.

Irene

March 4th, 2010 11:24am Report this comment

The whole Ashcroft thing is starting to look rediculous - Labour, Sky and BBC24 are still running with it - he has done nothing wrong IMO

JONNY

March 4th, 2010 11:27am Report this comment

Witty and erudite though your reply is Vulture
I'm afraid it's all wasted on Tumbledown Dick. He's still in his political short trousers.

M. Rowley

March 4th, 2010 11:29am Report this comment

My irritation getting the better of me. Ashton should of course read Ashcroft.

Publius

March 4th, 2010 11:30am Report this comment

Well said Strapworld and others. It's about time people stopped being cowed by the bitter politics of envy and bogus righteous indignation. The Tories need to come out fighting and give the Left the finger.

Irene

March 4th, 2010 11:33am Report this comment

Damage to the party - get a grip for God's sake!

Sky and BBC24 are trying their hardest to get some more legs on this story.
I watched Kelvin on Sky last night standing up for Ashcroft saying he hasn't claimed any expenses, quick as a flash Anna (leftie) Botting said, well he is a billionaire and Mackenzie said Lord Paul who is also a billionaire claimed thousands on expenses - to me that is the difference.
This does not resonate with the electorate.
I wonder if the guardian and the independent will put him on the front page for the THIRD day running.

Dimoto

March 4th, 2010 11:42am Report this comment

You are right Stephen, Labour have many more non-dom skeletons in the cupboard than the Tories.
How totally predictable and lame that Hague has willingly bowed to the Labour agenda setting on this.
Apart from a nice deep voice and a talent for speechifying, does Hague have ANY other political skills ?

Vulture

March 4th, 2010 12:46pm Report this comment

Dear Dick,
I wish they would teach you basic literacy skills before you take up your trolling post in No. 10. (Sigh.) But I suppose you went to one of Mr Testicle's wonderful new skools. Your predecessor at No. 10, Fatbloke on Tour, - as he wittily dubbed himself, - had the same problem. Do you know what happened to him, BtW? Frankly I fear the worst - you will probably find his bloated corpse under your desk with a Nokia embedded in his head.

Anyhow, the following sentence from your post is both illiterate and misspelt: "You do seem to be making the point that multiple wives and the sexual prowes (sic.) is of more importance than the credibility
of one of your most senior Shadow cabinet members".

Please write out a correct version 100 times and bring it to me before Prep. If there are no mistakes I'll let you off the thrashing you would otherwise receive. (Hint: 'Prowess' is spelt with a double 'S').

I had to beat Fatbloke many times for his appalling posts - but he got there in the end, bless him. Perhaps that's why he was removed.

Anyhow, for future reference, as regular posters would tell you I am an extremely reactionary Tory and not at all one of Dave's 'New caring Conservatives' as you wrongly suppose. I favour a military coup and detention in Wembley Stadium followed by stone-breaking on that Scottish island infected by anthrax for the likes of you and your employers. See you before Prep.

Richard

March 4th, 2010 1:23pm Report this comment

@Vulture
Thanks for the literacy lesson it is kind of you to give your services so freely.
I was less impressed by the last part of your post though as it will lose you credibility not only with me but most of the other poters too. But unlike you I accept your right to hold your views and even post them so happy posting and keep ya chin up mate!!

JONNY

March 4th, 2010 2:57pm Report this comment

Richard your spelling is abominable.
Are you still at school?

JONNY

March 4th, 2010 3:18pm Report this comment

Dicky
when you go into a pub to order a drink do they ask to see your passport?

Frank P

March 4th, 2010 6:13pm Report this comment

Vulture - pearls before swine! Cut the oxygen.
He's from Twerpistas plc.

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