Britain on the brink

Alexander

If the UK electorate chooses Labour they have only themselves to blame for what comes next. You think we would have learned our lesson in the 1970s. If England was smart we would leave the UK and declare our own independence!

Chuck Unsworth

So we can expect Citigroup to be getting out of Sterling in a big way. Let's see.

Richard

Why is this so?
The Conservatives sinking fast
The polls sinking fast
Shameron sinking fast
Hague credibility sunk He must now resign!
Ashcroft A liability, he must resign Today!
The whole sorry mess falling around their ears.
Hung parliment..crumbs! is this the best the conservatives can do?

Billy Blofeld

All this talk is just hot air. Nothing will count about the severity of our problems unless the BBC talk about it.

The BBC is the most influential media by far - the public remain blissfully unaware of the forthcoming doom.

Robert Saintfield

...not to mention terrible civil unrest...I've alaways had the conviction that the desperate government interest in extending detention without trial was based on the expectation of deep political opposition after the deluge...
...or a coup?

Vulture

"What a terrible year 2010 is turning out to be" - yes, and when you look to see who's presiding over it, can you be surprised?

History is cyclical. Not only are we re-living the awful 1970s in a sort of Groundhog Day way -( as the soundbites of old Footie dreadfully remind us) - we are also staring into the abyss of a re-run 1964 too.

In that year, an unpopular Govt. tired after 13 years in power, under an unelected Scottish, out-of-touch, clapped-out leader was widely expected to lose heavily in the GE to an opposition under a new, dynamic
youngish modernising leader. (Familiar?)

Instead, the said moderniser, one Harold Wilson, almost snatched defeat from certain victory and squeaked in by about four seats. He staggered along through repeated economic storms for about 18 months, then called another election and won handsomely.

Something like that may be happening again.

marc antony

Tory majority at Hill's, current odds 4/7.
Maybe Brown should put a few billion on!

stephen

If Nick Clegg was a real patriot he would only field candidates in seats where the Lib Dems stand a real chance of winning. IMHO a vote for the Lib Dems or UKIP is a vote for a hung parliament and all the horrible uncertaities that brings We are not Belgians are not geared up for weeks of fudging a coaltion!

Short the UK

The bond king:

"To begin with, let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack of global aggregate demand – and how we got to where we are today: (1) Twenty years of accelerated globalization incrementally undermined the real incomes of most developed countries’ workers/citizens, forcing governments to promote leverage and asset price appreciation in order to fill in what is known as an “aggregate demand” gap – making sure that consumers keep buying things. When the private sector assumed too much debt and asset prices bubbled (think subprimes and houses, or dotcoms/NASDAQ 5000), American-style capitalism with its leverage, deregulation, and religious belief in lower and lower taxes reached a dead end. There was a willingness to keep on consuming, there just wasn’t the wallet. Vigilantes – bond market or otherwise – took away the credit card like parents do with a mall-crazed teenager. (2) The cancellation of credit cards led to the Great Recession and private sector deleveraging, the beginning of government policy reregulation, and gradual deglobalization – a reversal of over 20 years of trade policies and free market orthodoxy. In order to get us out of the sinkhole and avoid another Great Depression, the visible fist of government stepped in to replace the invisible hand of Adam Smith. Short-term interest rates headed to 0% and monetary policies of central banks incorporated new measures labeled “quantitative easing,” which essentially involved the writing of trillions of dollars of checks to replace the trillions of dollars of credit that disappeared after Lehman Brothers. In addition, government fiscal policies, in combination with declining revenues, led to double-digit deficits as a percentage of GDP in many countries, a condition unheard of since the Great Depression. (3) For awhile it seemed that all was well, that the government’s checkbook could replace the private market’s wallet and credit cards. Risk markets returned to normal P/Es as did interest rate spreads, and GDP growth resumed; it was only a matter of time before job growth would assure the world that we could believe in the tooth fairy again. Capitalism based on asset price appreciation was back. It would only be a matter of time before home prices followed stock prices higher and those refis and second mortgages would stuff our wallets once again. (4) Ah, but Dubai, Iceland, Ireland and recently Greece pointed to a potential flaw in the model. Shaking hands with the government was a brilliant strategy in 2009 when it was assumed that governments had an infinite capacity to leverage themselves.

But what if they didn’t? What if, as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have pointed out in their book, “This Time is Different,” our modern era was similar to history over the past several centuries when financial crises led to sovereign defaults or at least uncomfortable economic growth environments where real GDP was subpar based on onerous debt levels – sovereign and private market alike. What if – to put it simply – you couldn’t get out of a debt crisis by creating more debt?

A deficiency of global aggregate demand and the potential impotency of policymakers to close the gap are evolving into a life or death outcome for the weakest sovereigns, with consequences for credit and asset markets worldwide."

Bill Gross - March 2010

Yam Yam

"Central government current spending jumped 5.8 per cent in April-January".

So the old 'scorched earth' policy is still working flat out! Thanks, Gordon.

Grenville

What do the spread betting or other betting markets say? Anyone? That's where the real truth lies.

TrevorsDen

Looks like its all over then for the Highlands...

jules

all the more reason to get behind the Tories and stop all the negative carping and posting. We need to win and WIN BIG!

Andre

What you and the City are saying is that we need a government that will get its spending under control, cut taxation and reduce welfare spending and non productive investemt - social engineering etc. Cameron does not seem to be proposing this. The question most voters are asking is this: when it comes to public spending and controlling or seeking to control the deficit what difference is their between Brown and Cameron. Why vote for a Tory front bench we know nothing of and who seem to have no hard and fast proposals to get us out of this mess. Let city brokers panic - their cretinous behavior over the last decade is almost as regrettable as Browns.

Dennis Churchill

The realisation by the electorate that we have a political class, and party labels no longer matter as far as the main parties are concerned, is the cause of this ridiculous situation.

Percy

Oh he's an economist, I suggest you all take notice, it's bound to be right, I'd say by about 100%.

david

Looking forward to it, poetic justice after the expenses scandal.

Whats the worse thing that could happen? Vince Cable as chancellor, seems pretty good to me.

Tiberius

If this model shows a 72%+ chance of a hung parliament, I suggest he switches to a different type of Airfix glue.

John Bracewell

Thanks for a good article but it implies a few questions 'How do we get a strong government from the position we are in now?', 'Does it matter, a strong Labour or a strong Conservative government?', 'What is going to be the political outcome of a Hung Parliament, a second election?', 'What policies will improve the 'terrible state of our public finances'?
A second article addressing these questions would be appreciated.

Richard

More bad news.....
The electorial commision is about the report on the complaint from the Sunday Times (Yes a Tory Paper) into the affairs of Ashcrofts so called UK front companies for the tory party.
If this goes the wrong way for the tories it will be dynamite. They will be forced to pay all monies received back and Legal claims by sitting MP's in the marginals will fill the courts for years to come.
Be on notice this could bankrupt the Conservative party and kill it for good.
Still think this a non story anyone?

Sir Graphus

I’m sure you’ve chosen the picture of GB with the map deliberately to remind us of Michael Fish or Bill Giles or whoever it was assuring us in 1987 “don’t worry, there isn’t going to be a hurricane.”

North Bury

I would take Boris Johnson's advice...get on Betfair and check what odds people are actually betting on

denis cooper

I was surprised last night when a Newsnight journalist said that the markets are worrying about the uncertainty, but then went on to refer to the uncertainty about what will happen after 2014.

Not immediately after the election - presumably because it's perceived that in terms of reducing the budget deficit all three of the main parties now have rather similar overall plans for the following four years, even if they differ on the details - but after 2014.

I find it rather hard to believe that the markets have now shifted the focus of their concerns from the near future to four years out, but that was the only conclusion to be drawn from what he said.

Incidentally there have been two gilts auctions this week, which between them raised £6 billion without any problem:

http://www.dmo.gov.uk/reportView.aspx?rptCode=D8D&rptName=59805445&reportpage=Press_New

despite the Bank of England no longer being in the market to buy previously issued gilts.

Tim Carpenter LPUK

It is a shame we cannot vote in such a way as to let Cameron know we are only voting to get someone else out.

If he "won big" because people want Gordon OUT, the last thing some of us want is for him to think we wanted him IN!

It is a shame we could not have a vote that expired, like a bond. Then we have our vote back. Thus, we could vote in the Conservatives but only for one year, or six months.

If enough 1 yr votes expire in certain constituencies, they come up for by-election.

This would reinforce the truth long forgotten by Government, that our votes and sovereignty are ON LOAN and not "given" to them. We must have them back each time. All of them. All of it. Intact.

Right now that car they borrowed has been sold on to a mate of theirs in Brussels. They are busy forging the V-5 as we speak.

EyeSee

I know the polls exist because of a need to say something, but they really are pointless at the moment. Labour is doomed. However, the real problem is stupid Britain. People no longer figure things out for themselves, they look to be handed solutions, which is why we have had a soundbite government for 13 years that didn't get rumbled. Come election time the real fears are; because people worry about their personal situation in a recession, being told by Labour there isn't one could just work. Again voting personally the army of public sector employes may see a rationalisation of running Britain as a threat and vote Labour. (And then get sacked anyway). And also, it has to be said, intelligent, thinking people will be turned off by either Cameron's deceit or stupidity over global warming. On the plus side, the British trait of 'giving someone else a go' might help see the back of Labour. As opposed to the institutionalised corruption that they brought with them and existed from day 1. Despite, apparently winning in 97 because a couple of Tories were baddies. The unknown is how many 'new' British people, invented by Labour will vote for their sponsors. Plus of course, Labour will attempt electoral fraud on a massive scale. As all good Marxists know, elections are for the people -the result is for the government to decide.

(Actually, almost as difficult to discern, is whether we will see Gordon Brown being forcibly removed from Downing Street, possibly in a straightjacket, with Sarah following muttering about being back for tea as she has the Queen of Trincomalee coming).

General Zod

72.2 per cent. eh? He should get down to the bookies, because their odds are way out.

Trebor64

He's saying "We don't have to worry about this lot. They'll vote for a slug with a red rosette".

YouCannotBeSerious!

a 72.2% chance then.
Not 72.1%. Or 72.3%.
Got it. Right.

ps any chance of you ever admitting that the high deficit have been caused 100% (not 72.2%) by your dementedly reckless mates in the City?

Doubt it.

marc antony

Worry ye not about spread-betting, it's about as reliable as a new Nokia's life-expectancy in Downing Street when Ben Bradshaw is on TV.
Trust the pro's - 4/7 at Hills, and Ladbrokes giving you a plus 50% return.
You're going to need it.
Easy money!

natasha

If one were to multiply the statistical probability of a leading City economist being wrong by the margin of error of election polls, would there still be a problem?

Dan

Please!
72+% chance of a hung parliament. Really?

This economist's job is to create numbers out of thin air that can be punched into other economists' models to allow them to develop a view on valuation of markets.

It has no meaning beyond this utility and should be ignored by sensible people outside the City.

Where does he get 72% from? How many pre-election periods come close to what we are going through now? We live in nearly unprecedented times that don't bare comparison to recent electoral history.

And, for this reason, I don't trust the polls either. I still think the big issue is MP expenses and 13 years of cynicism, care of New Labour. The public don't trust our politicians and are loathed to vote for any of them.

However, when push comes to shove, as they stand in that polling booth, I believe people will, with a heavy heart and a large dose of antipathy, vote Labour out, regardless of what they tell the polsters.

Remember the 1992 election...

Moriarty

Was this model designed by the University of East Anglia?

Dorothy Wilson

David: If Vince Cable became Chancellor with the current mess to deal with he would have a nervous breakdown within a month.

denis cooper

@ Tim Carpenter LPUK -

What you want could be largely achieved by the introduction of a recall system for MPs, whereby if enough constituents signed a requisition for a fresh election then the MP would be legally bound to resign, vacating his seat so that a by-election could take place. [He could of course offer himself for re-election.]

Apart from the detail of how many registered voters would have to sign the requisition for it to become legally effective, there'd also be the question of the mimimum period which would have to elapse from the previous election before a requisition for a fresh election could be accepted.

That period could quite reasonably be set at one year, so that every MP knew that in effect he had a contract with his constituents for a minimum of one year and a bit, and a maximum of five years or whatever shorter period remained before the next general election would have to be held.

If we had had such a recall system in place, this Labour government would have long ago lost its Commons majority through a series of forced by-elections, and therefore we would have had a general election when we wanted it, rather than having to wait until Brown wants it or he runs out of time.

Apart from anything else, he would have been unable to impose the Lisbon Treaty on us.

[Nevertheless, contrary to some stories, Cameron does not in fact support this proposal. He would only allow constituents to have the opportunity to recall their parliamentary representative after he had been condemned by other MPs, or by the House of Commons authorities, or maybe by a judge.]

General Zod

Oh, joy! Coffee House is back to its habit of holding posts in Purgatory for an hour or two before admitting them through the gates onto the board.

Rodney G James

The Tories have only themselves to blame for not having the political courage to clearly stae their own values and policies. It is essential to cut the deficit by rolling back the public sector,which means abolishing most quangos, regional governments and many social benefits and mounting a massive efficiency campaign, including sacking incompetent public sector workers and scrapping stupid PC legislation Finally decentralise and re-empower the professionals, such as police, teachers and doctors.
people do not want a pale blue PC version of NuLab.

TomTom

If the Conservatives get elected and Non-Doms like Lord Ashcroft start paying taxes we should be on the road to recovery at least as far as putting your money where your mouth is

Pramston

If the Tories can't win now then we are effectively a one party state. It is over. 13 years of Labour has achieved the one thing it actually cared about - creating sufficient numbers of people dependent on it for survival to ensure it's grip on power in perpetuity. Bolt holes in Wales and Scotland were initially established in case England swung back whilst the project was on going, but now not even those are needed.Britain is in more trouble than anyone in public office is willing to admit and even the chances of escape are dwindling along with the value of the pound.

DavidDP

Based on just a few polls from one pollster? People are getting ridiculous.

denis cooper

Also on Newsnight there was a segment about a long document produced by the Cabinet Office, which according to one commentator laid down a new constitutional principle - that a minority government should act only as a caretaker government, and should not take any decision which would tie the hands of the next government with a Commons majority.

I've looked for it on the Cabinet Office website, but can only find a shorter draft document which the Cabinet Secretary provided to the Justice Committee last week:

http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/newsroom/news_stories/100224-election.aspx

One might ask how it comes about that a small group of unelected civil servants, maybe a dozen or two, have been given the power to define the constitution of a supposedly democratic country with ca 45 million adult citizens.

Incidentally I read that the codified Constitution of Belgium actually has provisions explicitly limiting the powers of caretaker governments, but that didn't stop the Prime Minister of a caretaker government signing the Lisbon Treaty even though he had no constitutional authority to do so.

wrinkled weasel

Now tell me, what first attracted Mr Saunders to talking down the pound?

Or, why is George Soros telling us that Gold is a bubble, but buying it up?

If any of these guys know anything, they are certainly not telling you.

Sevo

A good third, if not slightly more, of the British electorate are prepared to vote Labour back into power because they (a) simply cannot comprehend, purely intellectually, matters like deficits, debt, bond spreads, exchange rate-driven imported inflation and the like; and (b) they have been raised in, and continue to inhabit, a child-like political world in which Tories are "bad" (all toffs, Thatcher was a vampire, etc etc) while the left - though perhaps incompetent - is "good" and will somehow magically figure out how to keep the country afloat (all you need to do is raise taxes on the "rich.") A nation cannot make the right collective political choices if a large share of its electorate is fundamentally ignorant and/or politically immature.

London Calling

Yep…and those boarded up shops across Britain are slowly creeping towards the city and the only people who are rubbing their hands together are the carpenters and the homeless. Until we put the Great back into Britain and actually start making things that don’t have made in China stamped on the back of them, we could just rise from the ashes…now that’s what I call Hope :)

wrinkled weasel

Zod, I am used to my posts appearing hours later or not at all. It is not as if I am rude and abusive to anybody, except Rod Liddle, so I do not understand the reasons behind it.

Dimoto

It is almost comical to see the coffee house crew suddenly awake with a start, to realise that the country could be in danger of a hung parliament, to which their past year of posts have made a modest contribution. Almost.
One must hope the wake-up call is heard by all those dozing, complacent, inactive Tory activists.

Publius

Sevo writes:
"A nation cannot make the right collective political choices if a large share of its electorate is fundamentally ignorant and/or politically immature."

-- Yes. Decadent and in its dotage. Unreal "reality" tv is about all the intellectual pygmies can take nowadays. And liberty is having a David Beckham hairdo and a tattoo.

Tiberius

"The Electoral Commission has cleared as legal £5.1m of donations to the Conservatives from a firm belonging to Lord Ashcroft, the BBC understands".

Keep it coming, Richard.

marc antony

There is a world of difference between blithely stating you will vote labour and actually doing it. Brown's army are hard to get out of bed, especially if it's raining. A 50% plus return, people!

William MacDougall

The three parties are so similar at the moment that it is not obvious why a hung Parliament should be any more uncertain for markets. And their support is so close that that is actually the proper democratic result. More important, a hung Parliament would be the best result for Britain, as it could lead to PR, and thus permit genuine conservative parties to have a voice.

Victor Southern

Poor Richard - the decision of the Electoral Commission on the donations made by Bearwood must leave you quite gutted. But, if you think that Labour can fight this General Election as a referendum on Ashcroft you are sadly mistaken.

Simon Stephenson

Sevo : 11.55am

Yes, good comment.

I think that the political childishness also includes the thought that dealing with the root cause of problems is unnecessarily conscientious and complicated, and that life can continue for ever, quite satisfactorily, by papering over the cracks.

Publius

General Zod writes:
"Oh, joy! Coffee House is back to its habit of holding posts in Purgatory for an hour or two before admitting them through the gates onto the board."

-- Yes, hopeless, isn't it. I commented on it the other day. No one seems bothered.

Richard

@Tiberius
Well you have squeaked through that one....but don't be too hasty.

The report heavily critises the Tories for not cooperating with them and not responding to their communications. Also the report conclude !insufficient evidence" that does not mean the same as clean bill of health.
Anyway you are no doubt happier than you were so enjoy the rest of your day...but spare a thought For William Dave and the noble Lord as they are still under pressure and I predict one of them will go before the election.

Moraymint

The great Labour/Marxism project is coming good.

For 13 years the Labour Party in government has aggressively, swiftly and (ruinously) expensively engineered socialism into all corners of British society and the British pysche.

Gloriously, we are now a soft, totalitarian, socialist state. The Labour Party's propaganda machine has barely eased off full-speed throughout the 15 years or so it has been spinning and deceiving the British people.

Throughout the same period, the Conservative Party has quite simply failed to oppose and remains all over the place ideologically. Consequently, we see no vision, no coherent policies, no practical proposals to undo 13 years of Labour in power. When we do occasionally hear mention of traditional conservative values and policies, the conditioned British people are horrified - and the opinion polls give their verdict. The Labour project has been a success.

It grieves me to contemplate that we may well see a hung parliament; the consequences for this country are almost too dreadful to contemplate. Right now, thanks to the Labour government's manipulation of the economy, we're defying economic gravity.

When the time comes to face the realities of our truly parlous socio-economic situation or, rather, when reality smashes us in the face, most people really will not know what's hit them.

The situation today may well put us on a par with Peterloo.

http://tinyurl.com/mf986

London Calling

Yep…and those boarded up shops across Britain are slowly creeping towards the city and the only people who are rubbing their hands together are the carpenters and the homeless. Until we put the Great back into Britain and actually start making things that don’t have made in China stamped on the back of them, we could just rise from the ashes…now that’s what I call Hope :)

Pete Hoskin

General Zod, Publius: I've been approving comments as and when they come in - so, if they're not showing more or less immediately, there might be a technical problem. I'll look into it.

In the meantime, you can always email me on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk if you're having trouble with comments. Or, if you register an account for comments, then your comments will go up automatically, without passing through moderation.

alexsandr

Sevo, you have understated it. People have voted form more schools and hospitals with no increase in income tax since nu labour came to power. They have never had to understand where the money is coming from. They just extect 'them' to pay for it. And they still dont understand we have run out of money. And they think the govt defecit is 100% caused by bailing out the banks.

Just look at the idiots on the telly saying their useless programme should not be cut, with no thought of the opportunity cost.

strapworld

It is about time people were honest. The tories are not doing well, when events are such that they should be riding higher than ever before in opinion polls.

The public are no fools. They detest Brown. They believe this government to be washed out. They have seen what massive influc of immigration has done to towns and cities. They have seen the value of their pound sink. Their pensions robbed, taxation increased. Crime increasing and criminas just laughing at the system.

They look for leadership, idea's and strength from the other parties and frankly the only parties speaking their language have been the BNP and Ukip.

The Conservatives have been far to interested in their internal affairs. Women and non indigenous candidates. Central control of candidates (incidentally coming froma party that tells the people that they believe in less central control, which is just laughable)and when the public realise that there has to be massive cuts in public services, the Tories ring fence the greatest drain on resources the NHS.

Local Conservative Associations who have had candidates forced on them do not like it. Will they go out with the same enthusiasm during an election campaign? Of course not.

For all the forget everything we must vote conservative to get Brown out comments here, sadly, those people are just not living in the real world.

We all know why the Conservative Party are not doing well and we all know what is needed to address the situation.

It is a question of the public's attitude to David Cameron. And David Cameron's attitude to us and the real issues the people want addressed as well as the economy.

Cameron will not listen. He has shown the same attitude to the members as he is now showing to the people. I KNOW BEST!

Well I believe the people do not like attitudes like that. They like people with idea's who are driven with a vision thing. Nobody can honestly tell me that Cameron has a vision, apart from seeing himself at Number 10. Frankly people have no confidence in him.

I believe that if Cameron were to step aside now for the sake of the Country for someone with the charisma of Ken Clarke, Boris or Hague. The tories would romp home with a truly massive majority.

Look at the aussie's they have shown the way. That is the only possible way for us now.

Cameron has to step aside and take Boy Wonder with him

Paddy

Sorry Richard - the Electoral Commission has
found no wrongdoing.

Brown had better start packing.

De Rigueur

Come on chaps, the Tories destroyed themselves. The last time they were in power they were a relentless bunch of shits. After they got rid of Mrs Thatcher, all those with talent got themselves jobs in the city. The could see the way thing were going to go. So all that was left were the dross who behaved appallingly. That is the reason Labour was able to call them the nasty party so convincingly.
For Cameron to get them this far deserves some credit.
Now he need everyones support, even if you feel he's let us down on Lisbon. We must kill socialism off for good this time. We did so before on the economy, now we've got to do if for our culture and our homeland.
All hands to the pump please.
And honestly - Cameron is a conservative - you know that.

CheekyC

I would venture that 90% of the population don't know the difference between the deficit and the national debt and the majority don't even know what a bond is. Most have no clue that economics isn't a zero sum game because human effort is elastic and responds to incentivisation. And very few know how much further their tax money would stretch and how much more of their labour's fruits they could enjoy if we didn't have to service such a large and growing national debt.

Very simple explanations of these things, Johnny Ball style, during some of the Party Political Broadcasts (and ideally at half-time in the football!) might make a huge difference to the way a lot of people vote.

If only.

Frank P

Grenville (9.48am)

"That's where the real truth lies."

The 'real truth' always lies, because all of man's 'truth' is only an infinitesimal part of the Universal Truth, which is beyond the knowing of even the Universe itself, let alone you and me.

I remind you of what Isaac Azimov said,

"All of us are living in the light and warmth of a hug hydrogen bomb, 86,000 across and 93,000,000 miles away, which is in a state of continuous explosion."

Just think yourself lucky to have the gift of a brief flash of awareness in the never ending after-fart of the Big Bang; hold your nose, hold on to your arse and stop worrying FFS. It could all end in the next second and you won't know a thing about it.

Frank P

Is there ever going to be a time again when number of the posts recorded at the top of a threads in any way accords with the actual number of posts, so that we can tell whether there has been any additions to earlier threads. Perhaps if you paid your techies, rather than poncing off 'work experience' geeks?

Frank P

Caption for above picture: "Why do you really have to ask why I'm living in London, when you consider what's living under my hand, up here!"

Viv Evans

Yeah, well, what did you all expect after months of talking down the Tories,after months of scrutinising Cameron, Osborne, Hague etc for the tiniest little bit to criticise?
None have done the same to Brown et al - and the continuous haranguing about the 'Lisbon Treaty Treason' by Cameron has the effect that nobody holds the feet of the LibDrems over the coals - they voted for it, not the Tories.

Perhpas it might also enter some of your minds that the Tories won't come out with anything to get our teeth into ebfore the elction is called. seems you have all conveniently forgotten that NuLAb is in the habit of stealing any ideas the Tories come up with.

So let them play their cards close to the chest - and for a start, it would be good if you all started talking them up and focus your minds on the wrongdoings of Brown and NuLab.
shouldn't be too difficult: they have a history of 13 years of malfeasance.

Its not for the Tories to prove they have got it - it is for Labour to convince us that they should again be trusted.

As for this prediction - yeah right - thats the same lot which got us into the credit crunch, no? Perhaps they use the computer models which the Met Office uses? So where are their numbers, where are their workings? Why should we trust them?

Steve Tierney

I'd rather have Alistair Darling as chancellor than Vince Cable. At least everybody knows how dreadful he is. Some strange folk actually believe the guff that Cable spews ... making him much more dangerous to the country if he has control of its money.

dean

I'm sorry Allister- I have read too many of your silly, 1980s-style "learn nothing, forget nothing" Thatcherite editorials in City AM to be able to take anything you say seriously. You epitomise the monetarist, free market worshipping mindset that caused the Tories to lose three general elections in a row. Now voters are slowly waking up to the fact that the Tory Party hasn't changed - that people like you are its truest, most authentic representatives. And that is why the electorate has started to mis-trust Cameron, despite his obvious superiority to Brown.

By doggedly refusing to learn the lessons of defeat, by steadfastly refusing to re-consider cherished ideological dogmas in light of the credit crisis, you and your ilk have inflicted serious damage on Conservative cause. For that, you and your ilk can never be forgiven.

Tiberius

Richard: I predict that they will all be there for the election, but that you will have gone the same way as the poster called "Fatbloke", who deflated as soon as the party conference season finished.

J H Holloway

Arrrrgggghhhh.

Which serious person looks a the national swing? It tells you less than nothing.

It's the marginal seats that count and the Tories are as much as 12 percent ahead. Even with 'national average' 6 point lead, Labour would lose around 40 odd seats. And there are around 44 seats held with under 1000 vote majorities currently.

I can't see how there won't be a major churn of seats in May and that Boris is right - 40 seat majority for the Tories.

However, there have been some very penetrating points on this thread, especially about how the British public have been insulated from the true cost of Labour's spending.

We are living way, way beyond our means and Labour's line that pulling away the funny money will collapse the economy should be seen as what it is - admitting that 25 percent of the public sector is built on sand.

But Dave, scarred by the post ERM Tory experience, might not have the grit to be straight with voters and admit the party will be phased out over the next four years.

Moreover, Guido and the Liberals are right - the Tories need to slash the overdraft and simultaneously lift tax-free allowance to 10k.

What really depresses me, though, is that Dave seems to think 'modernisation' is a matter of any concern with the economy in this state. Show-downs in Westbourne Grove gastro-pubs is just so 2005...

William Blakes Ghost

More voodoo statistics.

Its seems to me there is an awful lot of monkey spanking going on inside the Westminster bubble at the moment. Lets hope it doesn't get too sticky and smelly (its beginning to wreak a bit already)....

Osming

As Gordon Brown is entirely to blame for the mess we're in (with a little help from the Community Reinvestment Act in the US and its consequences) he should be responsible for sorting it out. As he is the cause of the problem, he is obviously completely incapable of providing the solution. If the Tories win, they will get the blame for the pain that will have to be endured to sort out Gordon's mess. This could well allow Labour to get back to power again. Far better to have Brown win this election and prove once and for all that Labour are terminally incompetent and consign them to the dustbin of history for all time.

Moraymint

Osming
March 4th, 2010 4:03pm

Yes, I tend to agree. I would rather experience, tolerate and survive the consigning of the Labour Party and its ruinous Marxist claptrap to the dustbin of history once and for all time, than endure years and years of agony on the receiving end of a hung, half-baked, ideologically confused government.

The Labour Party must be destroyed and, in particular, Brown's reputation with it. The Conservative Party must rediscover its roots.

Either we allow ourselves to relish the Labour Party drowning in a sewage pit of its own making, or we need the Tories to remember what really makes people tick. Here are some clues ...

Small government (liberty); controlled immigration; defence and security; law and order; the sovereignty of parliament (over Brussels); private enterprise and wealth creation; low taxes; personal choice.

There now; not difficult is it? But when did you last hear the Conservative Party talk with clarity and conviction about a coherent list like that? Instead, we get weasel words, equivocation, inconsistency, focus-group outcomes, obfuscation ... anything but clear, unequivocal conservatism.

There's your problem, Dave.

Natasha

Moraymint - when you refer to small government, you need to articulate what you mean. Use this term when speaking to people who are not political activists and they think you mean closing hospitals and reducing the number of police on the streets. I suspect you mean something else entirely. The Tories have a real communication problem here.

Natasha

J H Holloway - in light of latest You Gov poll which shows Tories only 2% ahead in key marginals (well within margin of error), do you want to revise your opinion?

Denying that the Tories have developed a major image problem in recent weeks will do nobody any good. The real question is - how to correct it? Which part of his coalition does Cameron wish to expand? Floating voters who voted Labour in 2005, or the demented right wing fanatics who caused the party to lose three elections in row?

Moraymint

Natasha
March 4th, 2010 4:46pm

Small government means starting with the question, "Why does the government need to do this at all?"

This is a tad extreme, but it's a great place to start:

http://tinyurl.com/yk2aur3

J H Holloway

Natasha

Isn't/wasn't that 2 percent figure a national lead..? I don't believe national polling pulls out figures for marginals.

Surely the test of the marginals argument is the fury about Lord Ashcroft being spun up by Labour and the Guardian. His targeting of marginals is what Labour is most worried about, not his Lord Paul-style tax status.

Verity

Tim Carpenter LPUK A very intriguing post. It looks as though it could work… Dennis Cooper, your response to Tim Carpenter was also very interesting.

Dennis Cooper – and responding to your comment further down the thread: “that a minority government should act only as a caretaker government, and should not take any decision which would tie the hands of the next government with a Commons majority.” No government can bind its successor. That is why a Conservative government (which would not include leftie loser Cameron) could obliterate the Lisbon Treaty or whatever it’s being called today, with the stroke of a pen.

What I have been predicting for almost a year, a hung Parliament, will happen unless the Conservatives cut their inexplicable ties to the dire Cameron and put a strong Conservative in as Leader. I recommend Hague because he has a good sense of humour and the Brits like people who can be funny on their feet.

Moraymint – Agree. On your three posts. Every word. Strapworld – Ditto. The Tories would romp home with a different leader. People want to vote Tory, but they don’t want to vote for a pinko - the self-declared Blair’s heir. They’ve seen, to their horror, where that leads. Dump Dave is the most important next step.

2trueblue

Richard The Sunday Times is not a Tory paper. You have a very negative attitude, get help.

TokyoGuru

Whatever the truth, the effects of the 72.2% prediction are unfortunately hitting all of us as sterling is now efectively worth about half of what it was recently. Of course the Straw/Brown Labour Marxism Project is what has caused the current problem - and of course Cameron is (possibly unwittingly) a part thereof so we can expect no respite, be the Commons hung or not hung.
Most amusing post - Peter Hoskin who says that posts from a registered account go up automatically. Up where???

alex

the british people are so politically correct, they won't vote for the one party that could solve most of the problems facing britain, THE EU, MIGRATION, ISLAM, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS ITSELF, AND A BANKSTER ELITE RIPPING OFF THE BRITISH PEOPLE.

AxelDC

A hung parliament could be the best thing for Britain. Sure, getting rid of Broon would be the next best, but Britain's electoral system is not serving its interests if Labour can get a sizeable majority with a mere 35% of the vote, but the Tories or Lib-Dems have to mount well over 40% to get a much smaller majority.

If I were David Cameron, I would convert to proportional representation. The Lib-Dems have long been punished by first-past-the-post, getting only 5 seats when they got 25% of the votes throughout the 1980s as the SDP. Siding with the Lib-Dems and pushing a more libertarian strain under PR could forever kill Labour and make the Lib-Tory coalition the main axis in British politics. It would also soften Scottish opposition to another Tory PM.

DC

The major betting markets all rate a hung parliament as a roughly one-in-three likelihood. If Citigroup wager about $50bn on their hunch they can pay back the Fed...

Rory Murray

A hung Parliament is not necessarily a bad thing......

http://hung-parliament.blogspot.com/2010/03/fundamental-problem-with-british.html