Why the Tories' internal polling matters

Sally Chatterjee

I shall sound old fashioned but is constant polling the right way to go? Either you have some good ideas to put forward or you do not, a party aspiring to govern must aspire to lead as well.

It's like trying to drive a car by looking in the rear-view mirror, polls will tell you what people thought of something you've already done.

ollie

I find this development very odd indeed. YouGov are losing much of their hard earned credibility by changing their weighting procedures.

Anyone who follows Political Betting will know this maore than anyone. YouGov are overstating Labour's polling quite dramatically - in fact, unweighted samples show the tories leading by at least 10%.

Very strange.

Carroll Barry-Walsh

Here's a novel suggestion: why not try talking to actual voters and listening to what we have to say? Too many politicians on "broadcast" mode these days; not enough on "receive".

Chuck Unsworth

And the real deal is?

Richard

It's all too late Shameron has missed the boat. Better to save the money for swish parties to attract the next non Dom. The old one may have the money but is now morally bankrupt now.
Polling last night puts Davis as a better Tory leader perhaps it will happen after the election and they can have another go in 5 years.

Tim W

Sally Chatterjee, I assume that private polling can tell you things which public polling doesn't as you can choose which questions to ask.

I don't know for sure but you can maybe ask about opinions of policies before they've been announced. For example, if you were thinking about bringing back the death penalty (its only an example) you could ask: "would you be more/less likely to vote for a political party if they said they would bring back the death penalty." If you got massive amounts in favour then you could push ahead with announcing the policy. If it was unfavourable then you could rethink and maybe not choose the policy. No one would know you were considering it supposing it didn't get leaked.

I tend to agree with you on the principles of policy formation in that your beliefs and what you think is best should take precendent over what an opinion poll says. In my opinion a politician who can persuade the public to take his/her view is much better than one which follows the public's view all the time.

jsfl

Fully agree with Ollie. Yougov have rolled out Peter Kellner to answer questions on politicalbetting.com and Kellner failed completely to placate critics (in fact his avoidance of the issues probably made things worse). Now Anthony Wells on UKPR is trying to explain it and Stephan Shakespeare on Conhome also.

People aren't buying it. Big problems for Yougov credibility as now Mike Smithson is suggesting they change their methodology.

I hope CCHQ are watching.....

Norman Dee

"He who pays the Piper etc" perhaps we are about to see a redefinition of the weighting. We need to "weight" and see.

John David Barnett

I'm tired of this election already. Wake me up when it's over.

Irene

ollie - agreed.

What YouGov have been doing with their daily polls since last September seems very odd IMO - they seem to weight Labour up and Conservatives down, for some reason!

TGF UKIP

A bit like asking Kim Philby to commission a poll on the public's perception of Soviet intentions.

Who get's the result first, Downing Street or the Kremlin?

Governing Principles

Ollie: Surely, the Tories would want the more conservative data possible? Wouldn't this be produced by the YouGov poll's Labour bias? I realise its not good polling for printing in the news but it might help the Conservatives make better decisions.

www.governing-principles.com

TrevorsDen

"why not try talking to actual voters" -- they do. Its called canvasing.

I think that this polling is more like fine tuning than anything else. As the report says tories are still using Populus.

But I agree with the comments about YouGovs methodologies. We are getting to the state with pollsters that their methodologies are so complex that you may as well 'add the number you first thought of'. YouGov claim to be finding too many tory respondents. Or more respondents from a demographic that are supporting the tories. The bottom line is they are discounting far more tory votes than they were a year ago. Who are we mortals to argue.

TrevorsDen

"why not try talking to actual voters" - they do its called canvassing.

I think as pointed out - these polls are fine tuning.

The points about YouGov's methodology are well made. They are finding more tory votes than expected, than they expect, so making an adjustment. Maybe they are right, but this was not happening a year ago.

Wight Tory

Just a though like, but could it be some wag in CCHQ has nobbled YouGov in the past week or so to get the Flunking Cyst to pop and see Lizzy...

Jimmy

Will they be paying VAT this time?

Beer Moth

So if the Tories (or any party) say something in the morning, and they are informed, that afternoon by polls, that what they said is deeply unpopular, they might then set about stating its opposite the next day? Or they say the same thing in a different way?

Forgive me, but these people are our political leaders, yes?

Tim W

Those blaming Yougov for the poll lead need to face facts that other companies are also predicting a hung parliament. If they were understating the lead then what benefit would it be to the Tory party for it to be rectified? More people will think they need to vote Tory to kick out Brown.
And what happened to those 6 election themes? The Tories should copy Labour and just repeat the same thing until all of Westminster is bored. Then it might get through to the voters.
I agree that canvassing is best though but could do with some snappy attractive policies from the top to help.

Jez

No. No. No.

The Tories have NOT been derailed by Ashcroft... they are failing because they are being advised by people that are failures.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7051889.ece

You can only lose a 100 sprint with an opponent that has no legs- if your going in the wrong direction.

This is not rocket science.

No one outside of your Westminster bubble gives a f*ck about this Ashcroft.

Wake up.

DavidDP

"they will get polling within the day on their morning announcements and the like."

Well that's a waste, since it normally takes a few days for things to percolate through the system.

DavidDP

"Here's a novel suggestion: why not try talking to actual voters "

What, like polling organisations do?

strapworld

Well said Jezz and also Richard.

I am now firmly of the opinion that Cameron tried to feed Lord Ashcroft to the vultures.

There is a power struggle going on at CCHQ and those incompetents advising the would be leader, and who have had him heading in the wrong direction,obviously do not like the influence and thoughts of Lord Ashcroft.

It has been written by many but it is worth repeating. Cameron had better bring in an experienced BRITISH individual to take over this campaign. Place BoyGeorge in the playroom and ignore him, Get Ken Clarke, Boris,Malcolm Riffkind, Micheal Howard, John Redwood. Hague out in the frontline shouting the odds. Bring back David Davis quickly and get him out kicking the labour backsides. Ask Lord Tebbit to help, Lord Baker, Lord Hurd men people have respect for and who will be listened to.

Action this day.......but that would be what a leader would do. I am of the opinion that Cameron is not up for the fight!

stephen

I hope they pay the VAT this time Ha Ha

What an uttef shambles of a campaign at least John Major got his soap box out.

IMHO the campaign is being run in a very poltically immature manner then what do you expect with a Boy[George] running it. Dave needs to get some strong political adults around him to fight a traditional campaign on tradtional values not Boy George inspired gimmicks

Tiberius

Tories take an 8 point lead with TNS-BMRB (39%-31%).

teledu

So DC's spending some of his dosh by commisioning YouGov polls.
Why doesn't he spend some of that cash finding out if a hard-line Eurosceptic policy would be popular?
Why not ascertain if Joe Public (or should that be Mohammed Public?) wants action against unchecked immigration and multucultralism?
Spend a few bob to see if the average Joe or Ali wants decisive action on the economy; a reduction of the client-state; an end to the illiberal policies of the state/councils/police/quangos etc.?
And if such a survey said such policies were winners would DC take any notice?
Don't hold your breath.
There are popular policies out there for the British to support but unfortunately no major party wants to be grasp them - or the BBC and MSM talk about them.