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Tuesday, 9th March 2010

The prospect of another EU treaty is a huge problem for reformer Brown

David Blackburn 5:34pm

It seems there must be discussion about a potential European Monetary Fund, and an organisation to manage Europe’s economies that circumvents Maastricht, to avert future fiscal crises.

So much for Lisbon, the treaty to end all treaties. Quite why no one, especially the treaty's opponents, acknowledged the possibility of a member state's financial collapse whilst Lisbon was being ratified during the recession is a mystery. However, all that is past. The question for the future is will there be a referendum this time round?

Adrian Michaels, rightly, point out that the Tories’ eurowars are likely to be renewed at the most inopportune time for Cameron. But Cameron will offer a referendum; his European policy dictates that he must.

A further treaty is a problem for Brown. The Prime Minister was instrumental in denying the British people their promised vote on Lisbon. His ‘pro-giving the people a vote’ credibility is diaphanous but Brown's now a believer. His death-bed conversion to electoral reform and referenda is transparent, but if Brown were non-committal on an EU referendum then his ruse becomes incredible. So too Nick Clegg's 'power to the people' credentials, if he denies his party a free vote a second time. This could play into the Tories’ hands.

Filed under: Angela Merkel (85 more articles) , Conservatives (2077 more articles) , David Cameron (1718 more articles) , Debt crisis (83 more articles) , Electoral reform (91 more articles) , Europe (699 more articles) , Gordon Brown (906 more articles) , Greece (69 more articles) , Lisbon Treaty (55 more articles) , Nick Clegg (637 more articles) , Public finances (704 more articles) , UK politics (4911 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

Sally Chatterjee

March 9th, 2010 5:44pm Report this comment

Surely this is a simple question for the UK?

Cameron can merely point out that Britain is struggling already with its own public finances thanks a decade of Brown's delusions. Even so, we probably don't need charity from Brussels or Frankfurt. So "merci" and "vielen dank", but if anyone in Europe wants a special fund, they can pay for it themselves.

David Blackburn

March 9th, 2010 5:48pm Report this comment

Sally Chatterjee,

Not if the new arrangement circumvents Maastricht. And, it will need Britain's signature under Lisbon's rules. Not sure about the money angle. Will look into it.

London Calling

March 9th, 2010 6:16pm Report this comment

Can we have a referendum to end all Treaties? …And remove the stranglehold that currently prevents countries sorting out their own affairs…I love Europe…I just don’t want to be controlled by Europe…or hear about how wonderful a single European is for us all…when that all is a few and the public within European countries didn’t even get to vote for it. Is that Democracy? The we know better brigade got it wrong…the Public does have a right to vote on such an important issue…Greece exposed the flaw, Greece had and has flaws…don’t we all?

What goes round comes round…The circle of stars proves that…only they didn’t count on one between the eyes so soon…K.O.

Irene

March 9th, 2010 6:17pm Report this comment

On the contrary I think it is an opportune time for Cameron.

Robert Eve

March 9th, 2010 6:31pm Report this comment

It's always a good time to leave the EU.

Richard Manns

March 9th, 2010 6:33pm Report this comment

Cameron will want no interference from the French and Germans on his economic policies; he'll have enough trouble dealing with the "interest groups" in the UK as it is.

So he can simply tell Brussels "we've got enough, thanks", citing that we're not members of the Euro for good measure.

He can also whip out a referendum if the EU wants to play hard-ball, since Brussels now knows that in a referendum, if even France says no, what the UK will say involves only the middle finger, index finger optional.

Andy Leeds

March 9th, 2010 6:40pm Report this comment

You can bet the house on the fact that any EU stitch up will be paid for by the UK, as per. You can also bet they will move Heaven and Earth not to have to ask the consent of their peoples for any stitch up. Time we left this Fascist embryonic state.

Jon Kingsbury

March 9th, 2010 6:47pm Report this comment

How peculiar - this story has only cropped up in the Spectator and the Telegraph.

TrevorsDen

March 9th, 2010 6:58pm Report this comment

Surely a Euro-IMF is a matter for the Euro group of EU countries.

denis cooper

March 9th, 2010 7:12pm Report this comment

1. The purpose of a new treaty would not be as much to "circumvent" Maastricht, as to amend the treaties by removing the explicit "no bail-out" provisions introduced with Maastricht.

On the other hand, illegally bailing out Greece with money laundered through various covert channels could be an attempt to "circumvent" Maastricht.

2. It's by no means certain that such a treaty would be covered by the Tories' referendum pledge, one formulation of which is here:

http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Europe.aspx

"A Conservative Government would change the law so that never again would a government be able to agree to a Treaty that hands over areas of power from Britain to the EU without a referendum."

It's already been made clear that this would not apply to treaties for the accession of new member states.

3. I guess that the eurocrats might be tempted to tack this treaty change on as a protocol to an accession treaty for Croatia and/or Iceland.

Edward Palmer

March 9th, 2010 7:37pm Report this comment

This could be the leverage needed to start to implement "The Plan" (which is essential reading for all Europhobes)

TGF UKIP

March 9th, 2010 10:00pm Report this comment

This story also runs v prominently in the arch europhile Fucking Terrible. The essence of the coverage is, though, because it would require a new treaty there is zero appetite for it in the immediate future even from Merkel and the French and even though the notion seems to have emanated from Merkel's own Finance Minister (a German Darling?)

Tyranosaurus

March 9th, 2010 10:35pm Report this comment

Who is this "reformer Brown" you refer to in the headline - surely you mean "road-block to reform Brown"

emil

March 9th, 2010 11:03pm Report this comment

What sort of logic dictates that this is inopportune for Cameron? I'd say it was a gift, and this time he can actually make a "cast iron guarantee" and deliver upon it.

Major Plonquer

March 10th, 2010 1:51am Report this comment

Wait a minute. Doesn't Cameron have to win an election first?

Watt Tyler

March 10th, 2010 2:33am Report this comment

James Kirkup at the Telegraph thinks that this is bad news for the Tories, and they definitely do not want to talk about it.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100029209/a-new-eu-treaty-i-see-trouble-ahead/

I have to laugh though. Do we seriously think that Cast-Iron Dave will have a referendum because he's promised one as policy?

He can promise to have referenda all he likes while it looks like they won't be needed. But its another story when the crunch comes.

If there is a change to the Constitutional Treaty over this fiscal issue, and Cameron does not have a referendum (as I am pretty sure he will not), I wonder how many of the useful idiots will still try to rationalise it, and keep stating their Tory support with increasing denial. This will be fun to watch.

TomTom

March 10th, 2010 5:25am Report this comment

Any new Treaty has to satisfy the Bundesverfassungsgericht and that is the main constituency. The BRitish will simply go along for the ride - with a cosmetic opt out from lilac stationery - and comply as the docile British are wont to do.

TomTom

March 10th, 2010 6:38am Report this comment

Of course emil, voters believe politicians promosing referenda and even 'cast-iron guarantees'...they have form...and we know that their word is their bond !

Dorothy Wilson

March 10th, 2010 9:27am Report this comment

Jon Kingsbury: I am not quite sure what you mean by "this story". However, I would refer you - and others here - to Der Spiegel Online/Europe. The top two stories there are very interesting and detailed - and sometimes contradictory.

denis cooper

March 10th, 2010 9:55am Report this comment

@ Watt Tyler - As with his pledge of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, there are different versions of Cameron's pledge of a referendum on any future treaty. One version refers to any "amending" treaty, so that wouldn't apply to an accession treaty. Last summer the Irish were promised that a protocol giving legal force to their "guarantees" would be attached to the next treaty, which might be the accession treaty for Croatia, and I suppose the same route might be used for this. In that case, Cameron would have one element of a plausible argument that his pledge wasn't applicable.

JohnBUK

March 11th, 2010 9:17am Report this comment

I suspect the Treaty will be an "amending" one again and with a silent "x" and introduced on a day with a "y" in it therefore there will be no need for a referendum.

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