The Tories won't need a majority to have a majority in the House

Fred

Gerry Adams would have Dave by the balls. He could instruct his MPs to turn up for a vote of no confidence and collapse his government. Not a good position for Dave or the country to be in. Westminster under direct rule from Ulster, who'd have thought it?

The Oncoming Storm

Sorry James but those poll figures are widely regarded as nonsense. They were entirely unofficial and were released by the NIO and OFMDFM as a ploy to pressurize the UUP into backing the devolution of justice. There is no evidence for who the pollster was or sample size etc. and as Anthony Wells mentions in the blogpost you link to NI polls have an abysmal track record.

You are correct that SF's abstentionism effectively lowers the bar for Cameron but their only realistic chance of a gain is South Down and the new SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie is likely to hang on.

welease woger

Your last paragraph assumes all the other parties will gang up on the Tories, something that is quite unlikely in practice. Even Labour might think twice about forcing an election when they are in transition and underfunded. The Northern Irish members would have no great interest in bringing the government down and many will support a conservative programme. The Nationalists may also have no pressing reason to force an election.

A bigger danger might be a rebellion from within the party's own ranks.

Michael Booth

Glad you point out the Sinn Fein anomoly: taxpayers' money again going to support people who have murdered and killed British citizens, just to keep things sweet. How about shouting an almighty 'NO' from every street corner in the land? NO to the constant initiatives which cost millions; NO to the logos and the rebrandings that waste millions; NO to the troughers in Westminster; NO to the wheelie bin micro chips, the CCTV cameras, the Big Brother finger wagging... ok ok so now I am on one, but I for one am fed up of this rotten stinking edifice we call our parliamentary democracy. Am I alone?

TrevorsDen

"Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats as they refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the Westminster parliament" --- yet these re the people we have given control of the NI police force to.

balding scot

If he wins, David C should insist on MP's sitting in the Commons to claim their salary. Another little saving for the country's coffers?

Victor Southern

Time to put a halt to this farce. If a member is unable or unwilling to attend Parliament for 6 months then his seat must be forfeited as also pay and allowances. If the next MP elected is also Sinn Fein then repeat the sanctions until the people of Northern Ireland decide they would like to be represented than than made fools of.

Pass a law that says that an MP is not entitled to pay and allowances until the Oath of Allegiance has been sworn.

Next, legislate that nobody can sit in more than legislative assembly. So, no Alex Salmond, no Iris Robinson, no Gerry Adams and so forth.

Finally pass a law that anyone who sits on a County Council is similarly debarred from being an MP.

Then deal finally and firmly with the Lords. A Senate of 100 will be quite enough to do that job, paid elected Senators - peers welcome to stand for office.

Pedantic Virgo

James, in English usage, practise is a verb. The noun is practice - hence, in practiCe.

RobertD

Turn the question round the other way. Ig Gordon is just a couple of seats short of holding on to power what is the probability that SF swallow their pride and turn up an vote for him.

Richard

If the Tories were to get a slim majority, the problem for DC would be keeping them together. The first chance many of them get to open old wounds on EU will test his leadership qualities. Not that his performance so far has given me any confidence.

General Zod

No, of course not, Dickie. He has been suffering just the saem kind of eurosceptic bastard actions as John Major.

Or rather, he hasn't.

You really have to try harder. If I were your boss at Labour HQ, I'd have fired you by now for being utterly obvious and therefore useless.

2trueblue

baldig scot, wouldn't that be great! That is what should happen, no attendance, no pay.

On the polls, who knows but it is rather a waste of time continually trying to figure it out. The public at times can make the right decision.

General Zod

Oh, good, the delay is here again. I hope it means you are all in the pub.

daniel maris

Ever since Mandelson took over government presentation Labour have been doing better, and better and better.

Obviously there must be some upper limit on what they can achieve with such a Quasimodo-like PM. But if I were a Tory I would certainly be experiencing a certain wateriness of the bowels.

I don't think the Labour surge is over yet and it won't stop until the Tories can convince the bulk of working people that they aren't in business to slash their conditions of employment.

The BA strike is another big test for the Tories. It would be really stupid of them to back the BA management. At the very least they should maintain a strict neutrality. But, ideally, if they want to reclaim their lead, they should back the workers against management.

tally

The british government governs mainly only English domestic affairs. It is England that can be hung from an axis of plaid,sinn fein,snp sdlp and welsh and scottish lib/dem and labour,whilst their own parliaments carry on serenely at English taxpayers expense. I care not if they stymie british affairs but to demand billions more from England will or else will bring an end to to the uk. I look forward to that day when the English are freed from these parasites

TomTom

yet these re the people we have given control of the NI police force to.

but the English cannot have elected Police Commissioners because that would "play into the hands of extremists"......Weird country !

Holly ......

If,if,if,if,if!!
When the Conservatives win the election with
a 'suprising' majority..a bit like the
'suprising'trade gap,'suprising'inflation
rise,'suprising'bank crash,'suprising' economic figures will you people please sod off.
Labour have wrecked(in no particular order)-
Our communities,society,the justice system,
the police,the education system,businesses,
the economy,parliament,the NHS & everything
in between.So anyone who thinks they will be anywhere near power..alone or with help from others are not paying attention to the masses.
We may think they are all the same,but that does not mean we will vote for five more years of Brown,whatever form that may take.
The word is out here..Brown is a liar.The country is in a mess and the public mood is to get rid of Labour.
The Labour bods will quote the polls and tell us,"no one wants the Tories",and quite frankly we don't want ANY of you,but in the ballot booth,our minds will focus and the Tories are the most realistic choice for what lies ahead to fix the country.
The party we love to hate.
After five years of sensible, proper government and a taste of US coming first,
we may just re elect the Tories.
The only people that will vote Labour are the one's who believe they will not raise taxes and will not make cuts,yet will halve the damage in four years.
Now ask yourself..Are these the same clowns who don't think Brown & Labour have done any damage in the first place?
The polls definitely do not mirror the voices around here and I do not imagine we are alone in our determination to give the Tory government the mandate to get rid of all the childish ill thought through laws that Labour have passed over the years.
I could live with the monster raving loony party, just to see the Labour front bench lose their seats...their podgy,open pored faces will be a reason to celebrate...Balls Harman,Burnham,Jowell & the other snivelling
little git,who's name I've blanked from my memory!...Denham....bugger..a flashback.

Moraymint

Michael Booth
March 12th, 2010 8:41pm

No, Michael, you're not alone. In all my life (I'm a smidgen over 50) I have never felt so despairing about the state of our nation: our politics, our economy, society at large.

Something dreadful has happened this past 15 years. Tony Blair tricked the gullible British people. Marxist nutters slipped into government under the radar. The Tory Party fell in love with Marxism.

The rest is history.

strapworld

It is the power, throughout the country and in every aspect of public life of the 'charity' Common Purpose which will create the problem.

This organisation, funded by the EU, is like a cancer where it has infiltrated councils, quango's, police forces, trades unions, the NHS, and the military. The enemy within does not apply to the militant islamists alone. We are in real danger from Common Purpose.

Cameron will have a real fight to save this Country. But is he man enough?

cityboozer

Fred,

"Gerry Adams would have Dave by the balls. He could instruct his MPs to turn up for a vote of no confidence and collapse his government."

No he couldn't. They refuse to swear the oath of allegiance so they aren't actually allowed to vote.

Cb.

Moraymint

strapworld
March 13th, 2010 8:09am

Yes, I also find it difficult to prevent myself from wondering just how malignant is Common Purpose.

Generally, I don't do cranky stuff or conspiracy theories. However, there does seem something awfully strange about Common Purpose - and the Bilderberg Group for that matter.

AF

If an hung parliament is such a dreaded problem as all seem to believe,then would it be fair to say that proportional representation which many bang on about would create a simular situation.

2trueblue

Moraymint, strapworld, Come on don't let the negative Liebore and the media get too much of a grip. The country is made up of a large number of real people like us that live in the real world. The media and Liebore are out to con us into thinking that they own us and shape our world, lets show thtm that they do not. The Tories will get in and it is just a question of by how much. They will make a difference and turn what is left of decency, thruth, reality and the population back on the road to recovery. If you do not beoieve otherwise you would not be talking to such sensible chaps as the rest of us here, (barring the odd idiot). IT will haoen.The great thing about these rogue polls it will make the Tory voters get out. I got very depressed about the media some time back and now see that they are trying with Liebore to bring about the return of this rotten lot again.

As for siding with the union Unite forget it. Unite is headed up by Whelan and isen't Harriets little fellow in there too? Lovely lot, eh? Really positive s...s helping us in the recession to kill off the one thing that used to be so good. Their staff are better paid that any others that fly so what are they complaining about?

strapworld

2trueblue. It would be great if your view became reality. Sadly until we have an electoral system which only allows those that have contributed, via taxation and paid National Insurance contibutions, to our system to vote! Labour will always have the army of benefit cheats, people who have happily lived off benefits all their lives and their children are following that example and never get off their backsides to work as most of us have done. Those people will not vote conservative.

Now we have another army of unfortunates who have left school unable to read, write and in the words of the Tesco director, believe the world owes them a living. They will not vote conservative!

Not overlooking the immigrants, who will always support those kind Labour people who provided them with a home in the new country!

2trueblue. This country has changed so much over the past twelve+ years. I recommend you google Common Purpose and read as much as you can. You may then share the concern I, and many others, have.

stephen

Slightly off topic but look what Lord Mandy is quoted as saying in the Western Morning News:

LORD Mandelson has made a direct appeal to non-Tory voters in the Westcountry to support the Liberal Democrats in a bid to hold back a Conservative landslide in the region.

The Business Secretary and key architect of Labour election strategy told the Western Morning News that the Lib-Dems "have more in common with Labour than with any other party".

Clearly NuLabour are rightly getting worried that they may face a blood bath in the South West and are looking to the their fellow travelling mate Clegg to bail them out. Let's hope Mandy's intervention will hope concentrate the minds of Westcountry voters "if you want another five years of Brown vote Lib Dem"

Nicholas

One of the strange things about Common Purpose, aside from its apparent furtiveness, is that it emerged almost from nothing after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It is as though funds and support being used for soviet subversion were re-channeled into a re-invented enterprise. The originator Julia Middleton, a "former" communist, is also something of a mystery.

Much of the language used by the organisation may be read as sinister as it implies change and "progress" by avoiding due process and the usual channels. It certainly doesn't seem to involve any kind of democratic mandate. The objectives are obscured by the language of its preferred methodology and never very clear. The concept of leadership over representation could be viewed as positive within a commercial venture but I'm not so sure about the public sector. It seems to follow the prevailing EU government model of creating a multi-tiered, expensive and unaccountable elite who decide what is best for us. I don't like that - however many positives it is dressed up in.

I have long suspected that there was indeed a secret narrative behind the social, if not socialist, cultural revolution we have experienced in the 13 years of New Labour. The ideology has been insistently applied even though the results and unintended consequences were - and are - predictably soviet, ultimately miserable and very last century. Some chinks have appeared suggesting behind the scenes transactions that were definitely not part of anyone's public manifesto. I suspect that it is the tip of an iceberg. Socialist committees behind closed doors operate in a rarified atmosphere of arrogance and disregard for public reality. Their justifications are usually crafted after the plans have been decided, heavily larded with spin, misrepresentation and moral blackmail. The other factor is that most committed socialists have a Borg-like ability to tune into each other without explicitly laying out their tables. The collective thought and coded language of this might admirably be described as "common purpose". Socialist constructs and ends can be achieved without any explicit references to political ideology through a "common purpose" masquerading as benevolence. It can be seen throughout the language and presentation of the public sector, an effective politicisation which is covert in not being publically recognised as such but overt in its impositions. In day to day transactions with the state or local government the public have accepted - or at least acquiesced - to a soviet socialist model which is far from the apolitical ideal prevailing until 1989. Certain conventions are now presumed and insisted upon in thought, word and deed and diversity applies to everything except dissenting political beliefs. The surprising thing is that this politicised view of England seems to apply even in Conservative run councils. God knows why.

Verity

Nicholas, very well put. I have long believed that Dave is a committed member. His thinking is Common Purpose to the max. As are his expectations.

To my mind, he is one of the nastiest pieces of work in Westminster - and that is quite daunting, given the competition. Maybe even on the sub-basement level of Jack Straw. Because he is trying to operate on illusion, sleight of hand and pulling a sheep product over the eyes of the electors.

Richard

@General Zod 12:14 am

Nobody can do menace quite like Norman Tebbit. Take this reply to a commenter on his blog, nominally addressed to a Jonathan Wilson but plainly intended for David Cameron:

I know why Jonathan Wilson thinks that the Tory Party is no longer Conservative, but I can assure him, despite everything, that there will be a lot of Conservatives in the House after the election.

There is a lot of ill-feeling towards Cameron among Conservative MPs, readily if anonymously expressed. Some of them - not all standing down at the election - are unjustifiably but virulently resentful of their leader's summary justice meted out over expenses. Others are ideological. I know of one MP who last year confided that he and his fellow hardline Eurosceptics would be ready to make life difficult for a Tory government after 18 months. Recently, since the opinion polls narrowed, he revised the timetable. "We'll give him 10 days," he said.

General Zod

Nobody gives a toss what Tebbit thinks any more, Dickie.

He became irrelevant as soon as he encouraged people to vote UKIP. If he were not old and caring a for a wife disabled by actions ordered by the two scumbags running Sinn Fein, he would have been expelled from teh party by now.

Marcher Baron

Holly, I agree with everything you say about the current government - they are useless and destructive - BUT the education system has been dumbed down and Labour controls the media. Let's not forget that this lot has been voted in on THREE occasions! I'm afraid I've lost faith in the electorate's common sense. Unthinking tribalism and the client state's reluctance to vote for the supply of benefits to be cut off, combined with the inbuilt constituency bias towards Labour, not to mention all those immigrant and postal votes, may well yet deliver the coup de grace to England by delivering a Labour government. Can we hear Drake's drum yet?

Richard

I see so he is not right when he says there are people still in the party who would disrupt Cameron.

Nicholas

Tebbit lost it for me when he roughed up Chinese restaurant celebrators and kicked a teenage Chinese lion dancer in the bum like some kind of demented Victor Meldrew. He should have been arrested for assault but no doubt the New Labour police were too busy sifting through peoples emails for evidence of wrong thoughts and forbidden words and/or thought he was too useful to Labour's ad hominem campaign against Cameron to be locked up.

2trueblue

Strapworld, I am fully aware about what the bas....s have done to the UK, especially England. We can not just accept it, we must do everything to get these people out of power and by bowing to the media it will not happen. We have to keep going and hope that the public are not that dumb.

Nicholas the answer to your latter part of yours is that the councilor do not actually run the joint. The power lies with the actual officers who 'steer' the councillors through. MAny of those are institutionally left wing so that is what we gat no matter what way we vote. The big problem we have with the house of commons is that this government have politicised the civil service and that is what Liebore want. It is so crazy that even our foreign office do not seem to get the fact that they are there to look after our affairs abroad, they think they are there to look after foreigners! If Liebore get in again we will have nothing eft of life as we grew up with and that why we must get them out and then work hard to help turn it round. Cameron is he only show at present that can get billing and once in then see how it plays out. Letting Liebore back is not an option and Clegg is not even on the starting blocks. There is a great deal of dmoke and mirrors, the like of which we have never seen, and must be resisted at all costs. The re-run of the 'Rover' bribe is just too much. As I said, if the people are that dumb, what the hell can you do? I refuse to go that road and am fed up with the amount of negativity which is what Liebore want, Don't give it to them.

Mark

The Ulster Tories are doing their very best to ensure that Sinn Fein has two more seats than they should - in North Belfast and Fermanagh & South Tyrone. The only way to prevent this disaster is to field a single unionist candidate in each constituency, something that the be-spotted adolescents of North Down oppose as 'sectarian'. How?

Tony Gee

In round numbers there are 100 non Con/Lab seats, leaving 550 up for grabs. DC will have to win 80 seats from Labour to halve this total, which seems a tall order in itself. An outright majority without the collapse of the Libdem vote seems out of the question. Scotland with its own Parliament will continue to run England - for some reason Dave the great tactician stuck his oar into N.I. politics whereas a link with the Scotnats would have been the pragmatic and strategic option.