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Monday, 15th March 2010

Brown sets the stage for a scorched earth Budget

Peter Hoskin 3:12pm

Gordon Brown must be feeling generous today, for he did the Tories two favours on Woman's Hour earlier.  David has already mentioned the first one: Brown saying that he would "keep going" as party leader even if Labour loses the next election, which ups the potential for more summertime Sturm und Drang on his own side.  But the second, as Ben Brogan points out, is his claim that the state of the economy makes it difficult for the government to detail any spending cuts.  The Tories will happily seize on that to justify their own "wait until we see the books" approach.

More broadly, Brown's claim also sets the stage for next week's Budget.  The obvious insinuation is that it won't contain much by way of cuts or new deficit reduction plans.  Instead, we may see some damaging tax rises dressed up as fiscal responsibility.  And Labour will try to get by by repeatedly mouthing their "guarantee" to cut the deficit in half over the next four years.  Meanwhile, the markets look on and tremble.

Of course, as predictions go, a deceptive and irresponsible Budget from Brown is hardly one from the leftfield.  But it does remind you that the next government will have to author a much more severe document – and soon – just to get things in order.  Indeed, even if Brown stays in power, he'll have to introduce some severe deficit reduction plans of his own to pay for his profligacy now, and to match up to that deficit reduction guarantee.  Either that, or we really are sunk.

Filed under: Budget (143 more articles) , Conservatives (2077 more articles) , Economy (884 more articles) , Election 2010 (599 more articles) , George Osborne (686 more articles) , Gordon Brown (906 more articles) , Labour (2015 more articles) , Public finances (704 more articles) , Tax rises (114 more articles) , UK politics (4911 more articles)

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Any Colour but Brown

March 15th, 2010 3:24pm Report this comment

"The Tories will happily seize on that to justify their own "wait until we see the books" approach."

They cannot know the full depth of the disaster that awaits them - they don't have access to the books and I bet there'll be plenty of stuff that's currently hidden somewhere that sees a "change of policy" and gets added to the deficit (like PFI, maybe).

The Laughing Cavalier

March 15th, 2010 3:35pm Report this comment

There will be precious little to laugh about if he does win the election but there may be some in the knowledge that the damn fool will then have to sort out the mess he has made.

Tiberius

March 15th, 2010 3:37pm Report this comment

But it will remain a problem that the TV broadcasts won't press Labour on Brown's statement to the degree that they press the Tories over Osborne's. The effect of this is falsely to make the Tories appear less sure of themselves.

Chris lancashire

March 15th, 2010 3:39pm Report this comment

Brown is just totally unable to countenance cuts. Having spent (no pun intended) 11 years (the first two he stuck to Ken Clark's budget) splurging on the public sector and latterly run a £40bn annual structural defecit he fails to see why he should stop now.
Even now he thinks it "ambitious" to halve the defecit in 4 years. He therefore presumably still intends to be running a £80bn defecit in 2016. Apart from the totally unaffordable interest bill on all this who the hell does he think is going to be lending this to us?
If Brown wins in May there is only one answer. IMF.

David Ossitt

March 15th, 2010 4:00pm Report this comment

He was horrid; little pretend nervous stuttering, trying his usual trick of non-stop twaddle talk, the nasty “I’ve answered that” or “I’m trying to answer that.

But the interviewer had him; he fell into her trap, the simple question, you said that the troops had all they ever asked for but from three or four sources we hear different, who are we to believe?

His answer was something like; well they ask, we discuss and they then agree with the revised figure that we will let them have.

He is one big lying bastard.

sinosimon

March 15th, 2010 4:02pm Report this comment

so in the space of four days we have the chief cecretary to the treasury saying there will be no tax rises in the course of the next parliament, the chancellor repeatedly refusing to repeat this lie, and now the pm saying he intends to INCREASE spending........and where are the bbc and newspaper headlines screaming 'government money men in disarray' 'left hand does not know what the right hand is doing' etc?

nada...not a peep....nick robinson would have been camped outside cchq in a sodding tent if this had been the corresponding tories.....what a farce.

Moraymint

March 15th, 2010 4:08pm Report this comment

" ... meanwhile, the markets look on and tremble ..."

They sure do ...

http://tinyurl.com/yzmbcjw

HASurvivor

March 15th, 2010 4:09pm Report this comment

Surely it's looking more likely that he'll be actually elected (God help us), so a scorched-earth budget may well backfire on him?

Robert Saintfield

March 15th, 2010 4:13pm Report this comment

How good it is to know that Chairman Brown, our beloved President for Life will remain at the helm even in the teeth of the storm of defeat.

Is not this courage of the highest order?

Please allow to be the first to call for the striking of new medal - SODOFF - Socialist Order of Democratic Oversight for Future Fair.

Hail! My leader, hail(preferably with noisome and noxious material).

Zoo keeper (Elephant House)

March 15th, 2010 4:50pm Report this comment

"Meanwhile, the markets look on and tremble".

Not for much longer.

Hawkeye

March 15th, 2010 4:53pm Report this comment

Browns's last few budgets have been unravelled by the press and opposition in a day or two - the last one in only a few hours. This time will be no different.

Having admitted that there can be no cuts I'm sure we will see some "clever" sleight of hand designed to pull one over on the Tories. By the time Newnight hits the air the gaping holes in the "dividing line" budget will be apparent. If there are no cuts then there must be tax raises and the City will go crazy. If Brown does cut then the City might be pleased but his supporters will go nuts. Brown loses either way.

After that, expect the declaration of the election date to be moved again once Brown realises another budget has gone belly-up.

I cannot believe he has been so foolish as to actually try and have a budget then the election. He should have had the election on March 25th before this quarter's GDP figures come out next month.

A bad budget and bad GDP, then an election. What a fool!

General Zod

March 15th, 2010 5:33pm Report this comment

Hawkeye, he has his people frantically manipulating the GDP figures at this very moment. Remember that the March figures are only the preliminary ones. I expect a continuation of modest (statistically insignificant) growth that will be revised slightly upward just before the election.

The reality is of course that GDP will have slipped in Q1, but don't expect Brown to announce that.

paulg

March 15th, 2010 5:55pm Report this comment

No No No Labour are not a political party, they are the government and as such they have a responsibility to lay out spending plans. They can't play party politics with the finances of the state. They must lay them out in specific detail. If they don't a general election must be forced on them straight away. A vote of no confidence must be sought.

emil

March 15th, 2010 6:13pm Report this comment

I saw tonight's headlines "Brown relieved of duties" and hoped beyond hope.

Disappointment can be a real bitch can't it?

Ian C

March 15th, 2010 6:21pm Report this comment

From a market report today:

"Confidence was also struck by the remarks of Moody's Managing Director Pierre Cailleteau, who warned that the UK and US have moved 'substantially' closer to losing their AAA credit ratings, explaining that the governments of the two economies must bring down their debts without damaging growth – a truly fragile feat."

Cameron and Osborne have been saying this for months in one form or another. And GB will be announcing the lection next week after his triumphalist budget....... what a nightmare situation. But the spread betters are saaying that the Tories will have 100 more seats than Labour. So the hung Parliament notion is not backed by smart money.

TGF UKIP

March 15th, 2010 7:11pm Report this comment

Ian C, an interesting link from Guido to BBC website indicates that the BBC are choosing to interpret and broadcast an entirely different take from the Moody's statement.

General Zod

March 15th, 2010 8:15pm Report this comment

That goes beyond creative interpretation to North Korean levels.

Major Plonquer

March 16th, 2010 12:49am Report this comment

Sinosimon - how can you possibly state that:

'left hand does not know what the right hand is doing'

We all know EXACTLY what Brown's right hand is doing.

2trueblue

March 16th, 2010 1:21am Report this comment

The BBC could not report anything that Brown or any Liebore MP says/does correctly. They have given 'political correctness. a new meaning. I rarely watch the news on BBC. It is difficult at the moment to get any real take on events from the any of tv stations, they all seem to be on a different planet. Brown has destroyed our economy, our way of life and our future. He has been promising jam tomorrow forever and never delivers. He is a truely evil man.

Dorothy Wilson

March 16th, 2010 9:01am Report this comment

sinosimon: According to the Sunday Times - "Darling's last throw of the dice" in the Business Section - the Treasury has clarified Bryne's comments by claiming they only refer to the coming Budget.

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