Brown faces the horror of the petrol pumps
Peter Hoskin 9:06am
Yes, I know, cause and correlation aren't the same thing – but Mike Smithson's latest graph over at Political Betting is still incredibly striking. It shows that the Tories' strongest poll position over the last few years coincided with a high in the petrol price. It also shows that the smallest gap between Labour and the Tories coincided with when petrol prices were at their lowest. Which all makes today's Telegraph story about petrol potentially hitting a new high of 120p a litre, as the election approaches, very resonant indeed.
The problem for the government is twofold. First, rising petrol prices are something which millions of people will understand and feel, so much more so than abstract talk about cuts, deficits and the like. And, second, it focuses attention on Alistair Darling's Budget next week. It won't be that surprising if he delays next month's planned rise in fuel duty, to try and defuse this issue politically. But even that will encourage more questions about the government's deficit reduction plan, and about whether they have made up the fiscal shortfall elsewhere. In the end, it's pretty much a lose-lose situation for Brown & Co.
P.S. If you need a reminder of how Gordon Brown can struggle in the face of rising petrol prices, then it's worth going back to his 2008 interview with Fern Britton, from around the one-minute mark:



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toco
March 16th, 2010 9:26am Report this commentAnd to think the hapless one sold all our gold for 25% of its current value.The only economics the dysfunctional Brown understands is being economical with the truth.
stepney
March 16th, 2010 9:31am Report this commentAnd however the Government try to spin the price rises on those greedy oil companies let a thousand souls howl the fact the 81% of the price is tax.
81%.
And also don't forget that when we pay for petrol we are paying the tax and then VAT on top of it. So we're being taxed on the tax we're paying.
Every time you fill up you're being mugged.
THX1138
March 16th, 2010 9:37am Report this commentThe Tories very sensibly brought in the fuel price escalator.. Fuel is a good thing to tax, we have choice in how much we drive and in what vehicle we drive it in and therefore how much tax we choose to pay. Not a choice afforded to us with income tax.
ollie
March 16th, 2010 10:06am Report this commentLol this clip reminds us all what a flat footed, hectoring oaf Brown truly is. His MO is the same now as it was then - try to intellectualise your answers to bamboozle the listening audience. Problem is, people aren't as stupid as Brown thinks.
Kennybhoy
March 16th, 2010 10:07am Report this commentThis correlation goes back aways. Even unto Blair's heyday.
The petrol crisis of Autumn 2001 saw William Hague's Conservatives briefly overtake New Labour in the polls.
Rhoda Klapp
March 16th, 2010 10:08am Report this commentTHX, daft, tax is to make money. Not ot encourage rel or imagined virtue. If we avoided fuel duty (after all, we could just get a taxi..) he'd tax us elsewhere.
Just a thought. Has Gordon Brown actually touched a petrol pump in his life? Fair chance he has not. Or ever paid for fuel.
Titus Aduxas
March 16th, 2010 10:15am Report this commentIt's worth listening further, particularly about what is going to happen "in the next few months" because of new Govt measures.
Stuart Beamish
March 16th, 2010 10:32am Report this comment"Fuel is a good thing to tax, we have choice in how much we drive" ~ Unless we're delivering goods, or going to work where there is no public transport, or using public transport.#
Raising the price of petrol is only a good thing if you are offering practical alternatives. There is no integrated transport policy.
Kennybhoy
March 16th, 2010 10:38am Report this commentOops! That should of course read "Autumn 2000" not 2001! Mea culpa!
Gary Williams
March 16th, 2010 10:41am Report this commentRhoda,
Brown has never had a driving licence.
THX,
Many people do not have a choice in how much they drive, unless you believe that we should be forced to earn a living without ever leaving home and to grow our own vegetables.
Then again, that dystopia is probably part of the Labour vision.
shaun g
March 16th, 2010 10:44am Report this commentWhen will the public wake up .we have been ripped off for years since the tory escalator policy and Labour have followed suit convincingly.Over £5.00 a gallon never mind per litre.We screemed at £ 1.00 per gallon, were has our sense gone .C02 has become the road tax,V.A.T has become the top up tax and so on .No party would have been in power long in the days when it mattered too them.Thats what they want in Politics to- day ,and anybody who dissagrees with them or puts up an argument to their poliices is classed as a sceptic
Marbury
March 16th, 2010 10:52am Report this comment"It shows that, over the past few years, the Tories' strongest poll positions coincided with a high in the petrol price."
Is that what it shows? Or does it show just one instance of high price/high lead correlation?
The petrol price has been rising over the last couple of months, as the Tory lead had fallen.
Ps: to everyone who keeps going on about the gold sale: if Brown had lucked out (playing the markets is largely a question of luck) and sold high, would you be acclaiming him as an economic genius? No, of course you wouldn't. So give it a rest.
Moriarty
March 16th, 2010 10:54am Report this comment@Rhoda.
Now let's not encourage him. Our fire service is overstretched as it is.
oldtimer
March 16th, 2010 10:57am Report this commentThe clip is nine minutes of Brown waffle. I cannot think of any of his predictions that came true.
michael m
March 16th, 2010 10:58am Report this commentWhen the pound is devalued by so much againts the dollar- another 2% in the last week, then it is not surprising is going up! QED
Nicholas
March 16th, 2010 11:02am Report this comment"Fuel is a good thing to tax, we have choice in how much we drive and in what vehicle we drive it in and therefore how much tax we choose to pay."
A fatuous comment that those who live in the countryside, where public transport is non-existent, and have to commute to work will find ridiculous. So move to the town? OK, what if everyone did that?
There is an element of choice, no doubt, especially in what type of vehicle to drive. But last time I looked there was no tax concession at the pumps on economical vehicles. So there is still an issue of inequality around the provision of practical public transport between town and country dwellers.
Inequality? From New Labour? Dear me. Unfortunately New Labour's whole concept of life in Britain is from a trendy, child oriented, bien pensant, urbanite and lately decidely East German perspective. If you don't fit the categories you don't matter.
Nicholas
March 16th, 2010 11:05am Report this commentRhoda, he probably leaned on a petrol pump holding his carrier bag full of bricks, while the friend he had cadged a lift from to the party filled up his car.
The Bellman
March 16th, 2010 11:21am Report this commentI had forgotten how much I enjoyed this interview as theatre of the macabre. By the sound of his voice - the way a psychotic artificial intelligence machine might simulate 'charming and unthreatening' - this was the point when Bruin was on his highest dosage. Hence, I suppose, his attempt to blame UK pump prices on 'political instability in the Arab world'.
And his big lovely happy friendly grin when Fern asks about shared equity! 'Well, now,' he says, beaming like a games master at shower time, 'shared equity is really interesting!' He might as well have added 'isn't it, boys and girls.'
mart
March 16th, 2010 11:24am Report this comment"Yes, I know, cause and correlation aren't the same thing"
Peter, you have made my day. If only all articles were so prefaced.
TGF UKIP
March 16th, 2010 11:25am Report this commentUltra PC, Blair and Heir worshipping, N London green headbanger THX 1138, once again reminds us of that legendary episode of South Park which so vividly demonstrated why insufferable smugness and Prius owning are indivisible.
Mind you encouraging all the smug bastards to drive a Prius might be the swiftest way of disposing of them permanently.
TGF UKIP
March 16th, 2010 11:32am Report this commentPete, by implication you pre-suppose that the Cameron Clique are capable of correlating in the voters' minds the link between, high debt a falling currency and a high petrol price.
Demonstrably they're not, as the Naughtie fiasco with Clarke demonstrated this morning when the word debt was barely mentioned other than by the 8 o'clock female newsreader who managed to conflate debt with deficit in virtually consecutive sentences - all part of the BBC/Labour joint campaign no doubt.
Lucky lucky Brown to have so an absolutely incapable opposition.
Moraymint
March 16th, 2010 11:32am Report this commentWe ain't seen nothing yet ...
http://tinyurl.com/yjbltfj
startledcod
March 16th, 2010 11:50am Report this commentFern's interviewing is excellent, somewhat reminiscent of Jimmy Young who was a great inquisitor because he was unfailingly olite and quiet but just asked the simplest of questions. Fern should hugely increase her knowledge (JY was very well up on things) so that she could really lay waste to the avoidances and obfuscations.
FB - Prime Minister, you repeatedly talk about reducing the deficit in four years but never mention reducing the debt which will continue to increase. Why is this?
Angry
March 16th, 2010 12:01pm Report this commentThis makes me so angry, I'm a London Cabbie and instead driving the 5 miles less a day to make a difference to the environment I'm having to drive 20 miles a day MORE to pay for the increase in fuel' at the moment I'm already paying £10 A DAY more than last year thats without the latest increases, 80% is TAX on TAX on TAX. You can count on me NOT voting for you GORDON.
ben
March 16th, 2010 12:03pm Report this commentI hope we can see more interviews given by Fern Britton before the election
THX1138
March 16th, 2010 12:05pm Report this commentRhoda & TGF I wasn't making a hair shirted green comment, rather I was just stating the fact that if you decide to commute 100 miles a day in BMW X5, ultimately it's your choice to pay huge amounts in tax..
Olaf
March 16th, 2010 12:07pm Report this commentI don't know how high the price of petrol will go but it will get there steadily. The oil companies don't want a massive spike that will actually push people off oil. They need to keep us addicted, you can't make money from a dead junky.
They are probably just as pissed off at Brown for making fuel so expensive that the alternatives are becoming viable.
Alex
March 16th, 2010 12:37pm Report this comment"rather I was just stating the fact that if you decide to commute 100 miles a day in BMW X5, ultimately it's your choice to pay huge amounts in tax.."
No, what you mention now is completely different to what you mentioned initially.
Typical left whinger. Always spinning gibbberish.
anne allan
March 16th, 2010 12:52pm Report this commentTHX1138 - how naive are you? Everything you buy is transported to the point of sale. The ingredients that went into everything you buy were transported to their place of manufacture. Your post is delivered by petrol or diesel powered vehicles. Public transport is powered by oil based products. My window cleaner needs a car to run his business.
Mr. & Mrs. Bloggs going by bus to the supermarket will not make a ha'porth of difference to the increasing costs of keeping this country movng. That cost that will be reflected in everything that we consume, whether material objects or services.
Rhoda Klapp
March 16th, 2010 1:23pm Report this commentI tried driving five miles less a day, but I got fed up with the walk home.
Pete Hoskin
March 16th, 2010 1:31pm Report this commentMarbury: fair point, and one I considered making in my post (but, as you no doubt know, you can say too much in a single blog post). Figured I'd covered myself with the first sentence. And, besides, the plural "Tories' strongest poll positions" is meant to refer to the clump of results around the petrol price spike - not their strongest poll positions over the last few years, generally. My fault that that's not clearer - will tweak it now.
THX1138
March 16th, 2010 1:33pm Report this commentAlex My point was always about Tax and it stands, with fuel tax you have a choice in how much tax you pay with Income tax you don't. I fail to see how that obvious fact is anyway controversial..
Why is that you always seem to see some idiot being interviewed next to a bloody great 4X4 bleating about fuel prices! D'oh! If you don't like spending a fortune on fuel don't buy a vehicle that only does 15 miles to the gallon, where in your tiny little brain did you think it was going to get cheaper to run. And don't look to the Tories, they ain't going to help, it's your stupid fault for buying the gas guzzler in the first place.
TrevorsDen
March 16th, 2010 2:00pm Report this commentIts one thing to bring in a fuel, price escalator to steadily get us to buy more economic cars, but once the tax has reached a certain level - its time to stop.
I have already seen petrol at 118p/ltr
TrevorsDen
March 16th, 2010 2:08pm Report this commentNever mind car ownership (does anybody believe that Brown has ever owned a car) has Brown ever cycled to work?
TomTom
March 16th, 2010 2:36pm Report this commentWhy do I pay Council Tax to subsidise private railway companies on local lines ? Why do I pay petrol taxes to subsidise diesel for polluting private company buses ?
Why do we spend over £1 billion subsidising diesel for buses ?
With hospitals, schools, post offices and food retailers ever more remote from residential areas why are we taxed so heavily to drive to such places ?
The Conservatives simply offer us more of the same, more fuel taxes
Gary Williams
March 16th, 2010 2:40pm Report this commentTHX,
"Why is that you always seem to see some idiot being interviewed next to a bloody great 4X4 bleating about fuel prices! D'oh! If you don't like spending a fortune on fuel don't buy a vehicle that only does 15 miles to the gallon, where in your tiny little brain did you think it was going to get cheaper to run."
Why is it that you always seem to see some ... being interviewed (or writing on the internet) bleating about other people's reasonable preferences, as he is incapable of grasping the injustice of the government's disproportionately penalising those reasonable preferences?
"D'oh!"
AndyinBrum
March 16th, 2010 2:57pm Report this commentI'm happy with the fuel escalator in times of plenty, but in recesionand facing inflation, capping the tax on fuel to keep it at 90p say, and then raise it when the economy's on the way up
Simon Stephenson
March 16th, 2010 5:06pm Report this commentMarbury : 10.52am
"Ps: to everyone who keeps going on about the gold sale: if Brown had lucked out (playing the markets is largely a question of luck) and sold high, would you be acclaiming him as an economic genius? No, of course you wouldn't. So give it a rest."
It's fair enough to criticise those who are attacking Brown's gold-sale policy solely from the point of view of hindsight. But, in fact, there were major contemporaneous misgivings about both the wisdom of the policy and the price-efficacy of the process by which the gold was sold.
Maybe you should read:-
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece
and see whether or not you agree with me that the warnings given to Brown and his team, which they ignored, actually largely come true. OK, the decision to sell the gold may be seen as a political decision, where Brown can be assumed to have a competence to override the advice of his non-political experts, but the railroading through of the sale processes, against advice, was not political at all. It was surely a real instance of the arrogant Brown's lack of regard for expert advice costing the nation a very significant amount of money, was it not?
SUSAN HILL
March 16th, 2010 5:46pm Report this commentBut would Cameron be able to bring petrol prices down for the foreseeable, that's the problem ?
Michael Booth
March 16th, 2010 8:12pm Report this commentWith a tax on fuel you can choose how much you pay, can you? Not if you live in the country you can't, when there's no bus service or indeed local taxi service you can call on, when the village shop has closed and you have to drive ten miles or so to the local market town... fine for metropolitan types, but believe me it is not fine for country dwellers
toni
March 16th, 2010 8:14pm Report this comment@TrevorsDen
Has Brown ever owned a car?
Hopefully not as he'd be a liability being blind in one eye?
Has Brown ever cycled to work?
Erm.. doesn't he live over the shop?
He could have cycled in from No 10 to No 11 or No 11 to No 10, therefore not requiring a following limo carrying the briefcase?
Unless you meant him cycling in from Chequers or his constituency?
Gary Williams
March 16th, 2010 8:58pm Report this commentMarbury,
"Ps: to everyone who keeps going on about the gold sale: if Brown had lucked out (playing the markets is largely a question of luck) and sold high, would you be acclaiming him as an economic genius? No, of course you wouldn't. So give it a rest."
Sorry, but your presumption is quite wrong. If he had done as you imagine, people who understand these things would have thought, "He is incompetent as a finance minister, he is disgracefully petty, selfish and divisive as a leader, but at least the guy has a bit of common sense."
Playing the markets is often a question of luck, but not for everyone. If the circumstances did not enable him to sell into strength, he should at least have had the scintilla of humility required to defer to people who demonstrably were vastly more experienced in these matters than he was.
The sad fact for all of us is that Brown was out of his depth as Chancellor, he is out of his depth as PM, and he's the only person in the room who does not understand that.
toni
March 16th, 2010 8:58pm Report this comment"Why is that you always seem to see some idiot being interviewed next to a bloody great 4X4 bleating about fuel prices!"
Fur coat and no knickers syndrome.
Ali C
March 16th, 2010 10:51pm Report this commentNot only did the former chancellor sell the gold when the market was rock bottom, he announced it to the market in advance, so the price went even lower, if I recall correctly.
brilliant
Marcher Baron
March 17th, 2010 12:20am Report this comment"Fuel is a good thing to tax, we have choice in how much we drive" There speaks a man who lives in a town with decent public transport! Where I live, unless I'm prepared to spend all day travelling and risk not being able to get back the same day, I've no choice but to drive if I want to go anywhere beyond walking or cycling range, especially if I have to be there at a specific time. I would object less to the imposition of swingeing taxes on fuel if there were a viable alternative in fast, frequent, clean, reliable, affordable and accessible public transport.
Fergus Pickering
March 17th, 2010 4:36am Report this commentTHX, a purchase tax is a tax on the poor; graduated income tax is a tax on the rich. I suppose you are quite rich so of course you prefer VAT and excise taxes to income tax. But the rest of us feel differently. You are like those people Orwell castigated who said the poor should give up fags and beer.
THX1138
March 17th, 2010 10:17am Report this commentI note nobody disagrees with me that even in the country you can reduce your fuel tax bill by driving a more fuel efficient vehicle. Yes TGF is right I do drive a Prius & not because of it's green credentials but rather because I hate tax. The VED on the Prius is £30 as is my CO2 based parking permit in Islington (It's over £300 for a big 4X4), I don't have to pay Boris' outrageous congestion charge (going up to £10 per day) and it does 60 MPG so overall I pay a fraction of the tax of some numpty driving some stupid Range Rover Sport.
Gary Williams
March 17th, 2010 12:01pm Report this commentTHX,
"I note nobody disagrees with me that even in the country you can reduce your fuel tax bill by driving a more fuel efficient vehicle."
Right, and no one would disagree if you were helpfully to declare that, if food were taxed, one could reduce one's food bill by not eating.
You like Pruises. Good for you; you must be proud of yourself. Many of us loathe them, and for having that sound opinion we should not be disproportionately penalised simply because of Government incompetence.
anthony
March 31st, 2010 1:42am Report this commentgordon brown gets chauffeured around in big heavy jaguars and range roves. firstly we pay for his car then his driver and lastly for the petrol that goes into his cars, so he does not need to worry about everytime he decides were that were not paying enough for petrol
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