The Tories' growing mood of quiet confidence

Richard

The mood maybe up a little at the moment and it is fair to say that the faithful will be bouyant.
Just a tad of realism.....70% of the seats are safe no matter what candidate the electorate are asked to support. The mood in these constituency's doesn't matter.
The marginals is the only battle ground.
The indications are that the number of seats the tories could win is still short of a majority and possibly Labour might hold out and form the next government.

The make-up of the marginals tends to be southern seats with a large proportion of the voters employed in the public services.
A large proportion possibly unionists and all worried about their jobs.
The tories would do ell to reflect on this when they start to open old arguments about the socialist lefties and strikes.
Truth is this country has suffered more from rampant capitalism than rabid socialism.
Its not the greed of office cleaners or refuse collectors that brought down the banks. Same with the BA cabin crews it's not them that drove the company to the brink of receivership its the pathetic management.
When push comes to shove they will vote for whatever party puts bread on the table and money in their pockets.

ollie

Richard, I do not think you have a grasp of even the simplest of facts.

For a start, most employees in the southern seats are privately employed, not public sector. I think you should take a look at the north east and Scotalnd if you want to see an exponential growth in public sector jobs.

The indications, as you call them, are mostly pointing in one direction - a small Tory majority.

The Tories are not attacking the frontline workers going on strike - unless I've missed something as blatant as that - they are highlighting UNITES stranglehold over the Labour party - and that wretched piece of scum, Charlie Whelan.

Moriarty

I levant conceptua spacethink I speak for all areas of the re

paulg

Come the second general election you won't have that 70% of safe seats, most of them will be abolished in the boundery changes.

Whilst the BNP will be up for all the rest in the inner cities.

Unfortunately for labour the majority of the south eastern seats are do not have public sector workers in their marginals, they are mostly found in stacked up northern seats.
Give it up and join the BNP just like most of old labour!

Richard Manns

"Just a tad of realism.....70% of the seats are safe"

This is meaningless unless you define "safe". If you add together the seats that stayed Tory in 1997 and those of Labour 1983, less than 50% are "safe".

"marginals tends to be southern seats"

No, they tend to be English and in medium-sized towns.

"A large proportion possibly unionists"

The lowest proportion since 1979, and I suspect the lowest for a century.

"...all worried about their jobs"

But not worried enough to stop the party with the highest support in UNITE being the Tories.

"The tories would do [w]ell to reflect on this..."

Not fearing the unions when they controlled the nation's power seemed to work out well in 1984; when they're half the size and control the world's needless forms, it'll be a party.

I hear the Civil Service has been on strike; did anyone notice a change in service quality?

cityboozer

Richard,

"When push comes to shove they will vote for whatever party puts bread on the table and money in their pockets."

That is an understandable and in no way dishonourable position, but the public sector and especially their unions must stop pretending that they have taken a vocation which entails sacrifice of self-interest.

Little Angussie

@ richard

"When push comes to shove they will vote for whatever party puts bread on the table and money in their pockets."

Your last paragraph perhaps reveals your mind set and attitude towards Labour

I have never relied on a political party to put bread on my table and money in my pockets. I do that by myself because I WORK AND EARN AND PAY MY WAY!!

I have no doubt that this is why you are terrified of a change of Government and publish your propaganda on this site.

denverthen

"When push comes to shove they will vote for whatever party puts bread on the table and money in their pockets."

Yeah, Richard. They'll vote Tory (and they'll be right).

Nicholas

"The indications are that the number of seats the tories could win is still short of a majority and possibly Labour might hold out and form the next government."

Still at it I see. Trolling ad nauseum. What "indications" are those then? The indications of deluded wishful thinking in the Brown Bunker?

Your party is going to get slaughtered. Good riddance.

mitch

Why aren't they shouting that Brown lied to chillcot all over the place eh?
He didn't misspeak he LIED!!! and soldiers died.

TrevorsDen

Political parties do not pot bread on the table or money in pockets (unless you are some of the poorest who had money taken from their pockets by browns 10p fiasco.

Even labour are talking about enormous cuts to bring down the deficit by half - something which will still leave the deficit rising and the part paid by tax to servicing the debt still rising - they just will not tell the electorate where.

Dream on Mr Richard.

Yosemite Sam

Ignoring Richard, I have just picked up over at PB that G Brown's 1 or 2 years when defence spending fell in real terms, is in actual fact four years - the most recent being 2007! Although today's admission was a unique event, G Brown Esq still is economical with the truth.

Chuck Unsworth

Brown didn't 'get it wrong', he deliberately lied about this on several occasions. Naturally his 'inaccuracy' calls into question each and every other statement he's made. A wiser man would have apologised to the house - and blamed some poor minion whilst seemingly taking the blame all to himself. That would've cut the whole debate dead. But that's Brown for you - incapable of subtlety, no real political nous and absolutely no charm whatsoever.

Jon

Richard "The indications are that ... possibly Labour might hold out and form the next government.".

Read Mike Smithson's Political Betting Blog; unfortunately for you, you'll find that you are wrong in your analysis.

Time is running out for your party Richard

Fergus Pickering

Much better, Richard. You see what you can do if you try. You can't spell buoyant, but lots of people nowadays can't do that, you are a little uncertain about its and it's, and there's a long sentence near the end which is out of control. Still, a creditable effort. Yu just need to keep thinking about what you are trying to say, and remember, your best friend is a dictionary.

Boudicca

Richard

I hate to disillusion you. I'm a divorced single mother, living in the south east and I work in the public sector. I have never voted Labour in my entire life and I never will.

Labour has done nothing whatsoever for people living in the south east; it never does. In the past 13 years we have been flooded with immigrants. Our public services are starved of funds compared to 'Labour' areas. Our council and police service receive less funding so Labour can divert funds towards the north. Our houses are astronomically expensive and because of that even an ex-local authority house like mine would make be liable for Inheritance Tax. The cost of living is higher here than anywhere, but because Labour and the Unions insist on national wage rates for the public sector, we earn roughly the same as public sector workers in much cheaper areas.

I have two young adult sons. I want them to have a chance of a decent life and they won't under Labour. Labour is intent on discriminating against white males.

There is no reason on God's earth why I should vote Labour. And I won't be.

Fox in a box

Richard,

its a good job Lord Ashcroft came up with all that lovely lolly to combat just such a scenario and deliver the marginals for the Tories then, eh?

Toodle pip.

Alexander Pelling

"Its not the greed of office cleaners or refuse collectors that brought down the banks."

Oh come on. It was the banks that paid for the office cleaners and the refuse collectors. Oh, and they also paid for the schoolteachers, the GPs, the policemen, the armed forces, the lollipop ladies, the public transport, the hospitals, the roads, the new school buildings, the diversity officers, the lesbian outreach co-ordinators, the media strategy officers ...

And right up to the moment when the system jammed this splendid government, which was responsible for regulating and presided over the banking system, was "intensely relaxed" about the whole set-up.

Without the banks there'd have been no bust - and no boom. That's how the real world works, Richard. It's like you got drunk at a big party and now you're trying to blame the host for your hangover.

welease woger

A few comments on James's article but 7 replies to to Richard. The troll won't go away until you all stop feeding him.

JONNY

Judging from your peace above Richard
You don't seen to understend buggerall about them merginals cos
you think their still Labor strangholds.

Victor Southern

Richard - when we talk about the collapse of some of the banks - the Scottish ones - we should listen to the words of Gordon Brown at the Mansion House in 2007:
" So let me say as I begin my new job, I want to continue to work with you in helping you do yours, listening to what you say, always recognising your international success is critical to that of Britain's overall and considering together the things that we must do - and, just as important, things we should not do - to maintain our competitiveness:

* enhancing a risk based regulatory approach, as we did in resisting pressure for a British Sarbannes-Oxley after Enron and Worldcom,
* maintaining our competitive tax regime, and having cut our main rate of corporation tax to again the lowest in the G8, today we are publishing the next stage of implementing Sir David Varney's recommendations for a more risk based approach to the administration of the system, with greater certainty on tax matters when it's needed most;
* and ensuring a modern planning system, that balances our economic and environmental needs with a more predictable and accountable decision making process, including that for major infrastructure projects.

But most importantly of all in the new world order, as the City bears witness, Britain's great natural resource are our people - resourceful, enterprising, innovative - the foundation on which we will compete successfully.

The financial services sector in Britain and the City of London at the centre of it, is a great example of a highly skilled, high value added, talent driven industry that shows how we can excel in a world of global competition. Britain needs more of the vigour, ingenuity and aspiration that you already demonstrate that is the hallmark of your success."

Richard

@Boudicca
March 17th, 2010 9:59pm

I too work in the public sector and know many on my colleagues are disillusioned with Labour. I work in the NHS, the transformation under Labour has been profound, new hospitals more local clinics out-patient services, nurses and Doctors.
I know it's not perfect but I do remember what it was like 15 years ago when I first came to this country to study.
Its easy to knock something down but harder to build it back up. The Tories drove the NHS into the ground....so they could force us into buying medi-care and ensure the poor got no treatment at all. Public health in this country is about the best it has ever been. Before you start shouting about dirty hospitals and C-Diff remember its the trusts that decide how to run them not the Gov. You may pay the bus fare but you have no control over the route or when you get there.
If your ex local authority house is worth over 350K you have done well and the inheritence tax will still be minimal if anything at all.
It's not the government that decides the price of housing in the South east it's free markets.
Like I said in my first post it's not socialists that have bankrupted the banks it's the greed of rampant capitalism.
I hope your sons do do well for themselves and I wish them luck, however the idea the world is against them because of Gordon Brown is a bit OTT.
As for those that say there are few public sector workers in the south east are not being realistic. Are you saying you have no Hospitals, schools, councils etc etc.
There will be very few tories north of Birmingham and absolutely none in Scotland...what does that tell you about the nature of Tory thinking and appeal.
They will divide the people just like MT did in the 70's/80's and it will be a step backwards in my opinion.
Have a good day and don't worry too much about being over run by manic socialist foriegn lesbians it's very rare.

TomTom

"When push comes to shove they will vote for whatever party puts bread on the table and money in their pockets."

Really ? I spend more on Council Tax than Gas and Electric; a fortune on petrol tax, and the Banker Tax on Savings and Dividends is ridiculous....but this Labour Government has doubled Council Tax, levied a tax on savers and bank shareholders to fund banker bonuses - the same bankers that fund the politicians.

Labour has a track record of jacking up taxes to fund favoured interest groups - it is Nomenklatura that Labour represents and it extracts money from the serfs

Vulture

Richard: "there will be very few Tories north of Birmingham..."

So how do you explain the Tories taking the Liebour seat of Crewe and Nantwich in the by-election then, Dick? When I last consulted an atlas the seat was well north of Birmingham. But perhaps you didn't do Geography in whatever Ed Testicles academy you attended.

No Tory votes in Scotalnd? Really don't care. The Scottish tail has been wagging the English dog for the past 13 years. Time to put little Jockie down. IT's the SNP Liebour have got to worry abt.

Still, since you say " they will divide the nation..." its nice to see you conceding - contra your first post - that the Tories ARE going to win aftwer all, and your beloved boss will be sent shambling back to the mists of Auchtermuchty or wherever the hell he comes from.

Chin, chin!

Chuck Unsworth

@ Richard

Your response to Boudicca was cretinous, simplistic to the point of stupidity, and patronising in the extreme. You should be ashamed of yourself - but judging from your previous comments I doubt that shame is a known sentiment to you. You repeatedly refer to 'we' and 'us', well just speak for yourself.

Of course your fifteen year (only) experience of this country is totally outweighed by those here who have lived in this country for rather longer. You speak from the immensely privileged position of arriving here from abroad, being educated/trained here (doubtless at taxpayers' expense) and subsequently being employed by the taxpayers. Where else would you be treated with so generously?

Have a nice day.

derek

Richard - keep up the good work on this website. The Tories' appeal to the electorate is based on the premise that they have changed but, as the comments on Coffee House make clear, this is far from the case. Most of the people who contribute here are hardcore Thatcherites, and it is these people who will be driving Tory policy if the Party is elected. They need to be encouraged to see alternative points of view, something that doesn't come naturally to them.

Nicholas

Can't be very busy in your job, Richard, judging by the amount of time you spend here trolling for Gordon Brown. An interesting perspective on those supposedly hard pressed NHS services that you can find so much time to comment, often at length and sometimes with multiple posts, on almost every thread here. Recently you have posted instant rebuttals on almost every piece.

Trolling for Labour in taxpayers time whilst being paid taxpayers money to do your NHS job, eh? Looks like you have demonstrated to us why those public sector cuts are justified after all. I do hope the Shadow Health Secretary reads this thread and sees your contribution. All we need now is for you to confirm you are in one of those New Labour inspired non-jobs and all our suspicions will be confirmed.

Nicholas

derek, I think that describing Richard's posts as being "alternative points of view" is somewhat an exaggeration. But no less an exaggeration than your stereotyping posters as "hardcore Thatcherites".

It's a pity that the "hardcore socialists" don't accept any need for themselves to be encouraged to see "alternative points of view". But that, I guess, is the nature of the institutional dogma, cant and mantra in New Labour and the Left. 13 years of miserable failure and bringing Britain to the brink of disaster as a nation, societally, economically and culturally and you are worried about ancient Tory mythology. Oh, dear. It's not our eyes that need to be opened derek, but those of myopic, half-witted fanatics like you and Richard.

Richard

@Derek
Thanks for the encouragement....

@Nicholas
I find time between seeing my patients to keep up to date. It is a mission I will admit because I see patients everyday who will suffer if the tories get in....a duty you might call it. Oh and I am not in one of those non jobs you allude to I am a health professional (Podiatrist) Dr Richard in fact.

Tiberius

So it's you, Dr Richard Strangelove, who has hidden the straitjacket with Gordon's name on it.

toni

One could be forgiven for thinking that the very many vindictive responses to Richard’s comments may indicate that they emanate from those who are hardly being driven to work too hard in their own chosen private sector employment.

Or would a more accurate assessment of these replies be that they are from retired hard core Thatcherites? and clearly with superior educational achievements judging by the amount of corrective grammar directed at Richard in preference to answering his many assertions.

And fwiw I agree with him regarding the health service as one with a history of needing and using it on a regular basis, and previous involvements in the private sector left much to be desired, so if we’re back to the future again with old Tory plans advocating insurance or voucher systems please continue. It helped to lose the last three elections for you and will do again.

Chuck Unsworth

Podiatrist!

Not Pederast, then?

Nicholas

Richard, you are doing more than keeping up to date. And I know a few doctors who have an "alternative point of view" to you. They can't wait to see the back of Brown.

Still, if you have such a commitment to your patients I find it strange that you can spend so much time on here, trolling away for Gordon Brown. One wonders why. Shouldn't you be keeping up to date with medicine rather than politics in taxpayer funded time? As I understand it medicine is a highly complex field requiring constant study and nothing should interfere with concentration on the needs and welfare of patients. Have I got that wrong? Are you more concerned about trolling for Gordon Brown than the welfare of your patients?

Nicholas

toni - I am self-employed. The taxpayer does not fund me, either in salary, benefits or pension. My time is my own to do with as I see fit. I also pay the tax which funds the time that people like Richard are using to peddle New Labour propaganda.

I am neither retired nor a "hard core Thatcherite", whatever that is. So you are wrong.

Verity

James writes: "quiet confidence among Tory MPs that the party will win a small but workable majority."

Well, I hope that even such modest ambitions are thwarted.

Given the wreckage that the malign Marxists have left behind, the Tories should be looking forward to a landslide. It is this leader that has diminished that expectation to "a small but working majority".

I don't understand why they don't sack Dave. Are they blind and deaf? Dave has caused the party to lose its nerve.

TomTom

its the trusts that decide how to run them not the Gov.

I am a Trust Member but have no influence, I cannot remove the Chief Executive and I do not get to see the accounts. The whole thing is a fraud and simply used so hospitals can expand without recourse to PFI....the Finance Directors are incompetent and system is open to abuse.

It would be better to privatise the hospitals completely rather than continue with the absurd Foundation Hospitals and their sham accountability

JulesM

Podiatrists aren't doctors, it is a posh name for a chiropodist. Very NuLiebour to promote yourself above your competence, though I'm sure Richard is a very good chiropodist, but what did he get his PhD in ?

Steve Tierney

We've lived for over a decade under a brand of 'stealth' socialism wearing a bad capitalist disguise. Some people were fooled. But the failure here is a failure of weak socialist ideas, not capitalism.

And before the lefty posters here start ranting about "it was the banks wot did it!" Enjoy your scapegoats while you can. On May 6th your time is up.

Nicholas

Steve Tierney, yes indeed but those "weak socialist ideas" were being espoused by the rather nasty leader of the Green Party on QT last night, aptly described by Starkey as a "socialist with green window dressing". She readily admitted her socialist principles without shame and then proceeded to paint pictures with the usual broad, sweeping and highly dubious brush. Her mask slipped further during her po-faced and humourless feminist attack on the LibDems new porn directing female candidate but her most virulent attack was against the Tories, whom she accused of "future-crime" on the basis of her past prejudice in answer to a question that had absolutely nothing to do with them.

The Tory spokesman was the razor-blunt and semi-comotose Lansley who let her get away with it and let Beckett get away with the amazingly loudly proclaimed statement that Unite is funded wholly by voluntary subscription from its members the very same night that the web was crackling with indignation about the £18 million of taxpayers money spent on the cozy New Labour-Unite money laundering scam. Come on, Lansley, you need to wake up and fight you dozy mare!